The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

That chart is for Multi-Family units...So, we'll have to see if that elevated default level is contained to that segment of the market, or, does it spread into single-family homes. Ironically, the banking sector has been reporting their quarterly and full-year earnings this week and almost without exception, they've all reported earnings that beat expectations. And with respect to loan performance, virtually all of the banks reported stronger than expected results there as well, meaning defaults on mortgages and all other types of consumer lending, are significantly lower than most anticipated.

Very strange with the banks, no doubt.. inverted yield curve and all for most of 2024. Very interesting.

 

[elindholm]

So I took a flyer on FNMA and FMCC back during Trump's first term when there was a case in front of the Supreme Court. The ruling didn't resolve anything and Trump lost the election so the shares floundered

With Trump's election there is renewed push to release the GSE's from their conservatorship which could restore their valuation as they are cash cows. My smallish position is up over 200% since the election.

Hedge Fund investor, Bill Ackman has long held a position in FNMA and is one of the most vocal leading the charge. He projects a value of $30 per share (currently around $7) which would 16x my position if it came to fruition.

Since I took a new position at work and returned to office a few years ago, I haven't been able to trade or research much which is why I haven't been active on herre. But I wanted to share.

This is not a recommendation to buy FNMA or FMCC.

We inherited a bunch of FNMA in 2020 when it was hovering in the 1.50 range. I dumped half of it because we needed to make small distributions from the IRA and there seemed to be no reason to hold onto it. But I noticed a couple of weeks ago that it was getting memed, and timed our exit well, cashing out at 7.33. Now that money is in VTWO.

 

[jf-08]

We inherited a bunch of FNMA in 2020 when it was hovering in the 1.50 range. I dumped half of it because we needed to make small distributions from the IRA and there seemed to be no reason to hold onto it. But I noticed a couple of weeks ago that it was getting memed, and timed our exit well, cashing out at 7.33. Now that money is in VTWO.

Well done!!!!

 

[Folster]

We inherited a bunch of FNMA in 2020 when it was hovering in the 1.50 range. I dumped half of it because we needed to make small distributions from the IRA and there seemed to be no reason to hold onto it. But I noticed a couple of weeks ago that it was getting memed, and timed our exit well, cashing out at 7.33. Now that money is in VTWO.

That's great! My basis is around $3K at $1.85/share. I am going to give it some runway, but will consider taking some gains around $10, if it gets there.