The most bone headed coaching decision

[gusmahler]

I think his testicles have shrunk over the years. He was scared to put his side of the ball out there with the game on the line. don't you remember how the Pats used to brag (with reason) about how their defense shut down Manning in the playoffs? Now it's so completely flipped he doesn't have the nuts to make calls in a 2 minute situation with about 70 yards to go. instead, he makes an absurdly high risk call on offense to get out of that situation. Bruschi is right. His defense has to hate him right now.

Again, mathematically speaking, it was the proper call. The bad thing about the call is the media scrutiny. But winning 3 Super Bowls has a way of alleviating that scrutiny--if Tom Cable made the same call, he'd have been fired.

As for the defense quitting on him or hating him--I think it's more likely that they work harder to gain trust (assuming they don't understand the probabilities behind the decision).

 

[ajcardfan]

Again, mathematically speaking, it was the proper call.

The best postgrad course i've ever taken was on statistics and research. What i learned is that you have to take numbers with just as big a grain of salt as you do a verbal argument. You can make stats say anything you want them to say by context and sample size. It was amazing to see people take the exact same set of data and reach polar opposite conclusions. That's why I'm reluctant to buy the numbers I've seen put out there supporting his call. They sound too good to be true. And, more than likely, probably are too good to be true.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I think his testicles have shrunk over the years. He was scared to put his side of the ball out there with the game on the line. don't you remember how the Pats used to brag (with reason) about how their defense shut down Manning in the playoffs? Now it's so completely flipped he doesn't have the nuts to make calls in a 2 minute situation with about 70 yards to go. instead, he makes an absurdly high risk call on offense to get out of that situation. Bruschi is right. His defense has to hate him right now.

I think they grew and are elephant sized at this point. Manning just went down the entire length of the field to score the possession before. You don't think that he is capable of doing it again with 2 minutes to go? Give me a break. Furthermore, like I said before, you are putting the ball and the game with your best players. I would love it if Whiz did the same thing, a great deal of our talent is on the offensive side of the football. I'd rather the ball in the hands of our offense to try and ice the game (even without a consistent running game) than our defense expecting them to win the game for us. (unless we are on the 1 yard line, then our defense plays possessed.

The defense still allowed the last TD. They shouldn't hate the coach. Look in the mirror first.

The way that Belichick did it, he had 3 ways to win. He completes the first down, game over. The defense stops them, game over. Manning scores quickly and gives them time to score. The last one is the least likely to occur, but still possible. If they have to march down the field, it is almost assured that they don't have enough time to score.

 

[Duckjake]

Again, mathematically speaking, it was the proper call. The bad thing about the call is the media scrutiny. But winning 3 Super Bowls has a way of alleviating that scrutiny--if Tom Cable made the same call, he'd have been fired.

As for the defense quitting on him or hating him--I think it's more likely that they work harder to gain trust (assuming they don't understand the probabilities behind the decision).

Exactly.

If it is the right call mathematically speaking then why is it like the first time in 160,000 games that anyone has done it? Are all the other coaches just stupid?

Well now that I said that they are the same guys that punt and then go to a prevent defense that prevents them from winning so......

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Exactly.

If it is the right call mathematically speaking then why is it like the first time in 160,000 games that anyone has done it? Are all the other coaches just stupid?

Well now that I said that they are the same guys that punt and then go to a prevent defense that prevents them from winning so......

Most other coaches would play it safe and are afraid to make these types of calls. Belichick will go down as one of the best ever, in part because of these types of decisions that he makes.

 

[gusmahler]

Exactly.

If it is the right call mathematically speaking then why is it like the first time in 160,000 games that anyone has done it? Are all the other coaches just stupid?

You're talking specifically about the guy who thinks Jamarcus is an NFL QB . . .

No, coaches aren't stupid, they are conservative and they want to keep their job.

Think about baseball. Until the statheads came around in the 80s, most people had the same ideas about baseball (e.g., batting average is king, sacrifices are good). When Bill James, Palmer and the like came around and actually analyzed baseball, they realized that OBP is MUCH more important than batting average and a bunch of over things that really aren't relevant to a football thread. But it's taken a long time for that thinking to become more common.

Same with Bellichek's decision. The gut reaction of everyone is that punting is right. Why? Because everyone would have punted. No one ever stopped to think, "wait, is punting right?"

Same thing with going for 2. Teams get that wrong all the time (if you're down by 15, and you score a TD, the right choice is to go for two now, not wait until you score a second time). But no one thinks about how wrong that is because "everyone" does it.

 

[WildBB]

I think his testicles have shrunk over the years. He was scared to put his side of the ball out there with the game on the line. don't you remember how the Pats used to brag (with reason) about how their defense shut down Manning in the playoffs? Now it's so completely flipped he doesn't have the nuts to make calls in a 2 minute situation with about 70 yards to go. instead, he makes an absurdly high risk call on offense to get out of that situation. Bruschi is right. His defense has to hate him right now.

High risk, high reward. Or big flop. He flopped big. For one thing a veteran like Brady made the completion but didn't leave ANY room for error. The pass should have if completed not have beeM a question of the spot. So Belichek in putting his trust in Brady got burned. If he puts his trust in the better reasoned judgement of putting it into the hands of the D for multiple plays, then there's a better possibility that someone can make a play. They needed 7 not 3.

Then there's the other thing about some faith in the D. He(Belichek) being a defensive specialist, now this. This can't sit well. I'm sure he'll address it this week, say he just wanted to go for the W. But I suppose it will fall on deaf ears. There's nothing he can do to patch this rift. It will linger.

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

Exactly.

If it is the right call mathematically speaking then why is it like the first time in 160,000 games that anyone has done it? Are all the other coaches just stupid?

Well now that I said that they are the same guys that punt and then go to a prevent defense that prevents them from winning so......

That's the difference between Whiz (and most every other coach) and a coach like Belichick.

The Pats will get up by 3 or more scores, and never take the gas off.. even at risk of being called "poor sports"

Where is other guys (like Whiz) will throw in backups and let the other team back in.

Like I stated before, I think Belichick is a first class A-hole.. But I would take him as my coach any day.

 

[gusmahler]

Here's how Gregg Easterbrook distills the argument:

Which seems like a better gamble -- 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/091117&sportCat=nfl

 

[Gizmo Williams]

Bruschi is right. His defense has to hate him right now.

The defense had a chance to step up and stop the Colts. They had a chance to defend the 29 yard field and keep the Colts out of the endzone. Practically, there is little difference given the game situation and the Pats were defending a short field in either scenario. If they punted, they most likely would have protected against the big play and pretty much given the Colts 30 or 40 yards before stiffening up. I imagine the Colts would have been inside Patriot territory with more than a minute left.

Personally, I like the call. You give your offense a chance to win it by keeping the ball out of Mannings hands. If it fails, you still have your defense to lean on. In this case....they got a questionable spot that could have gone either way and the defense did not do their job.

 

[gusmahler]

He didn't go for it during the Washington game last year with just over 2 minutes to go when we were down 6. I don't think Whiz would have gone for that one.

Yeah, but he twice went for it on 4th down within the opponents 10 yard line on Sunday. When just about any non-Belicheck coach would have kicked a FG both times. He has many instances of unconventional thinking in his repertoire.

 

[Pariah]

Actually, like all parts of the play, it's been talked to death.

I guess I just must not talk about it to as many people. It's not been mentioned in this thread and it wasn't mentioned when they discussed it last night on MNF.

 

[gusmahler]

I guess I just must not talk about it to as many people. It's not been mentioned in this thread and it wasn't mentioned when they discussed it last night on MNF.

Because we're analyzing the decision, not the result. From a statistical standpoint, the correctness or incorrectness of the decision is a completely separate question than whether or not it succeeded.

To the mainstream media, it was a bad decision because it failed. If it succeeded, it would have been merely a footnote.

Think of it like poker, calling when you have 2 queens and the opponent has 2 threes is correct. The opponent hitting a three on the river doesn't make your earlier decision wrong, nor does it make the guy who bet with 2 threes correct.

 

[ARZCardinals]

I'd rather go for it and OWN the game rather than wait for Manning to get the ball.

2 yards and you OWN the game....I respect him for going for it.

 

[WildBB]

Yeah, but he twice went for it on 4th down within the opponents 10 yard line on Sunday. When just about any non-Belicheck coach would have kicked a FG both times. He has many instances of unconventional thinking in his repertoire.

Actually within the 1 on the first one. I argued this with a Hags fan on Sunday. But your at home, it's early the crowd is pumped, you need to put your faith in your unit there. Maybe in the 2nd half it's a different call, when points are a premium and you take the sure thing. It depends how your team is playing at the time and if they have big MO on their side or if they're really struggling.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Seems like a big sell job on this decision from analysts, pundits and former coaches. I'm sorry, but I just ain't buying. Still think it's a terrible decision....

 

[gusmahler]

Seems like a big sell job on this decision from analysts, pundits and former coaches. I'm sorry, but I just ain't buying. Still think it's a terrible decision....

The *vast* majority of people disagree with the decision (something like 70% in an ESPN poll). Few in the mainstream media are agreeing.

 

[Buckybird]

All that needs to be asked of the decision is:

If the same scenario played out last Sunday for the Cards & Wiz made the same decision with the same result, How would you as fans feel about it?

 

[earthsci]

All that needs to be asked of the decision is:

If the same scenario played out last Sunday for the Cards & Wiz made the same decision with the same result, How would you as fans feel about it?

Like the coach probably didn't make the right call but since he's brought us 3 Super Bowl Championships he gets a pass.

 

[gusmahler]

Indy's other TD drives:

8 plays, 90 yards, 3:28
8 plays, 61 yards, 3:02
5 plays, 79 yards, 2:04 (4th quarter)
6 plays, 48 yards, 1:49 (4th quarter)

To those saying that Belicheck had no faith in his defense--faith is something you earn. His D did not earn it.

 

[gusmahler]

All that needs to be asked of the decision is:

If the same scenario played out last Sunday for the Cards & Wiz made the same decision with the same result, How would you as fans feel about it?

The bolded is the key part that everyone is focusing on. But it's irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

Unless you are one of those who think Whiz was wrong to go for it on 4th and goal from the 1 because he failed, but right to go for it on 4th and 1 from the 10 because he succeeded.

From a coach's blame perspective, Belichek did the wrong thing. If he punted the ball and Indy scored, the story would be how unstoppable Manning is. But from a win/loss perspective, he did the right thing--Put the ball in the hands of his best player (Brady) and keep the ball away from the opponent's best player (Manning).

 

[daves]

Then there's the other thing about some faith in the D. He(Belichek) being a defensive specialist, now this. This can't sit well.

I see it just the opposite way. He had the faith in his D to bail him out in case the 4th down play failed, by stopping the Colts from getting the TD anyway.

If he really had no faith in his D, he would've instructed them to let the Colts score immediately after the turnover on downs, and given the Patriots offense a chance to score a field goal for the win with about two minutes on the clock.

Not many coaches have the guts, or the credibility, to make the call that's in the best interest of the team, as Belichick did. Sadly, even fewer will have the guts to do the right thing going forward. Playing it safe may seem right to the majority of fans, but it makes for less exciting football. I'm happy to see that Whisenhunt is not one to play it safe just for the sake of going with the conventional wisdom and avoiding potential criticism.

...dave

 

[gusmahler]

Not many coaches have the guts, or the credibility, to make the call that's in the best interest of the team, as Belichick did. Sadly, even fewer will have the guts to do the right thing going forward. Playing it safe may seem right to the majority of fans, but it makes for less exciting football. I'm happy to see that Whisenhunt is not one to play it safe just for the sake of going with the conventional wisdom and avoiding potential criticism.

...dave

Thing is, it's not playing it safe, from a statistical standpoint (though it's definitely playing it safe from a "keep my head coaching job" standpoint).

 

[82CardsGrad]

All that needs to be asked of the decision is:

If the same scenario played out last Sunday for the Cards & Wiz made the same decision with the same result, How would you as fans feel about it?

Again - apples and oranges... If Whiz had previoulsy won 3 super bowls with the same QB, and if he was facing Peyton Manning and made this decision, and it failed, I could live with the decision...
As I said previously, I don't believe it was the proper call, but I can very easily understand why and how it was made...

 

[BirdMan21]

As someone who is a huge Belicheck fan (as a coach and nothing more), I think he was put in a tough spot and everyone is right. If you punt to Manning and give him the ball with over 2 min left and 60 yards to go he is going to score x% of the time and Belicheck obviously felt he had a better chance to get that 4th and 2 than giving Manning the ball.

And why not try during the season. The team isn't really in trouble to make the playoffs and who knows....its either gonna light a fire under his defenses ass that they need to step it up or crush them that he didn't trust them. But this game will not make a big deal at the end of the season, both teams will be in the playoffs and both will be threats to win it all.

Gutsy call though regardless, one I think Whiz COULD make...don't know if I would want him to...but I am happy to have a coach that would rather try to win a game than give the other team the chance to win it.