RugbyMuffin
ASFN IDOL
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2003
- Posts
- 30,485
- Reaction score
- 4,877
The new CBA has made some changes to the way NFL teams are doing business. K9 has a really good explanation of how the NFL doesn't have a strong middle class anymore. What he meant by that is that NFL rosters are reflecting modern economical classes where you have the players making big money, and players making minimal, and that middle tier quasi-starter/depth guy that the Patriots were so famous for finding every year during their heyday is no longer an option. In other words, there is no room for the middle tier football player in the salary cap in most cases.
Now this isn't a 100%, black or white situation. We all saw what Keim has done with the the "middle tier" player. Keim waits out the big money days, and has some magical sales pitch to players, that gets said player to play for the Cardinals on a "prove it" contract. The problem is that, like in Karlos Dansby's case, the contracts are usually 1 year in length and re-signing the talent is no sure thing.
So, where is all this rambling going ?
In concerns to the draft, this situation above makes the draft more important than ever. Those late round picks, which I would slate as rounds 4 through 7, have to bring something to the table.
Why ? Because their contracts are the least expensive a team can get and put on an active roster. Just look at the contracts listed here:
http://blog.azcardinals.com/2014/03/24/extra-money-for-lesser-paid-cards/
Matheui was a 3rd round pick, and his cap number was well under 1 million for the season.
So, every year each team is given 4 selections in the draft to find some value that can help in any way. But, the risk is minimal. Don't get me wrong if you miss on every late round player it will cost you in money and talent because you have to sign an outside free agent. But, the cap penalties for cutting the late round drafted player is almost negligible.
OK, still not getting what the heck I am talking about ? I don't blame you, but here is my thought from this morning.
If I am running a franchise, I make a goal for the team to try and make good on at least 75% of the draft choices that are chosen after round 4. That is not to say you don't try for 100%, but at least when it comes to taking risks, I would say keep a risky pick to a minimum of 1 risk per 4 choices
For example, lets say the Cardinals had their 7th round pick this season.
They pick conservatively in three out of the four last rounds (again 4,5,6 & 7). The 3 conservative picks are high value, high potential, and low risk.
The 4th pick they use on a position that can be hit or miss. Positions like kickers, punters, quarterbacks, running backs, or a small school guy like Justin Bethel.
Get it ? Well if you do, then here is what I would do.
Running backs.
The age of the running back is over. DONE.
They don't get chosen in the 1st round anymore, and thus the best running backs are now available in the 2nd round, and even then, they are few and far in between.
Thus there is good value, when talking modern day NFL drafts, at the running back position in the 3rd round, AND in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th.
The risk and "lack of talent" at running back is minimal, so why not take a risk on one from time to time.
And you know what ? Keim and the Cardinals front office is WAY ahead of me on this idea. Thus why the team ends up picking Andre Elllington and Stepfan Taylor.
Why did they pick these players ? Well, why not ? They are 6th round picks with minimal salaries. You can cut them that preseason if they don't work out, and the salary penalties are negligible, and you are out a whopping 6th round pick which is hit or miss no matter who you draft anyway.
Thus while there may never be a need at running back, I would not be apposed to seeing the Cardinals draft one in the late round on almost a yearly basis.
Yes, yearly basis.
If you think about it, and how things have changed......its not to crazy of an idea, and actually it makes a lot of sense.
What do you think ?
Any other positions you could think of that the modern day game may have lessened the value of to the point where the talent has deemed less value just for the sake of the position and not the actual talent of the player.
For example, Andre Ellington had way more talent than a 6th round pick. Ten year ago, he may not have gone in the 1st round, but he would not have lasted until the 6th round. But the value of the running back position relative to the current state of the game, his value, because of the position he plays has dropped. Bad for him, but good for NFL football teams that can almost count on running backs dropping and value to be found in lack rounds.
Thus creating an extremely low risk and very high reward situation that can be "exploited" so to speak.
So again, any other positions that may come to mind ? Inside linebacker perhaps ?
Now this isn't a 100%, black or white situation. We all saw what Keim has done with the the "middle tier" player. Keim waits out the big money days, and has some magical sales pitch to players, that gets said player to play for the Cardinals on a "prove it" contract. The problem is that, like in Karlos Dansby's case, the contracts are usually 1 year in length and re-signing the talent is no sure thing.
So, where is all this rambling going ?
In concerns to the draft, this situation above makes the draft more important than ever. Those late round picks, which I would slate as rounds 4 through 7, have to bring something to the table.
Why ? Because their contracts are the least expensive a team can get and put on an active roster. Just look at the contracts listed here:
http://blog.azcardinals.com/2014/03/24/extra-money-for-lesser-paid-cards/
Matheui was a 3rd round pick, and his cap number was well under 1 million for the season.
So, every year each team is given 4 selections in the draft to find some value that can help in any way. But, the risk is minimal. Don't get me wrong if you miss on every late round player it will cost you in money and talent because you have to sign an outside free agent. But, the cap penalties for cutting the late round drafted player is almost negligible.
OK, still not getting what the heck I am talking about ? I don't blame you, but here is my thought from this morning.
If I am running a franchise, I make a goal for the team to try and make good on at least 75% of the draft choices that are chosen after round 4. That is not to say you don't try for 100%, but at least when it comes to taking risks, I would say keep a risky pick to a minimum of 1 risk per 4 choices
For example, lets say the Cardinals had their 7th round pick this season.
They pick conservatively in three out of the four last rounds (again 4,5,6 & 7). The 3 conservative picks are high value, high potential, and low risk.
The 4th pick they use on a position that can be hit or miss. Positions like kickers, punters, quarterbacks, running backs, or a small school guy like Justin Bethel.
Get it ? Well if you do, then here is what I would do.
Running backs.
The age of the running back is over. DONE.
They don't get chosen in the 1st round anymore, and thus the best running backs are now available in the 2nd round, and even then, they are few and far in between.
Thus there is good value, when talking modern day NFL drafts, at the running back position in the 3rd round, AND in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th.
The risk and "lack of talent" at running back is minimal, so why not take a risk on one from time to time.
And you know what ? Keim and the Cardinals front office is WAY ahead of me on this idea. Thus why the team ends up picking Andre Elllington and Stepfan Taylor.
Why did they pick these players ? Well, why not ? They are 6th round picks with minimal salaries. You can cut them that preseason if they don't work out, and the salary penalties are negligible, and you are out a whopping 6th round pick which is hit or miss no matter who you draft anyway.
Thus while there may never be a need at running back, I would not be apposed to seeing the Cardinals draft one in the late round on almost a yearly basis.
Yes, yearly basis.
If you think about it, and how things have changed......its not to crazy of an idea, and actually it makes a lot of sense.
What do you think ?
Any other positions you could think of that the modern day game may have lessened the value of to the point where the talent has deemed less value just for the sake of the position and not the actual talent of the player.
For example, Andre Ellington had way more talent than a 6th round pick. Ten year ago, he may not have gone in the 1st round, but he would not have lasted until the 6th round. But the value of the running back position relative to the current state of the game, his value, because of the position he plays has dropped. Bad for him, but good for NFL football teams that can almost count on running backs dropping and value to be found in lack rounds.
Thus creating an extremely low risk and very high reward situation that can be "exploited" so to speak.
So again, any other positions that may come to mind ? Inside linebacker perhaps ?
