Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Sounds like a great title for a mystery and I guess in the end it is a mystery. What will the Cards do with Boldin? Most importantly will he be traded?
I have long maintained this trade is almost certain to happen simply because the Cards proved they have an effective offense without Boldin. They are better with him and he is a great asset, but how many points should a team expect of their offense? It would seem the Cards are good enough to hit any reasonable number with Boldin out of the equation. On the other hand they have several other needs that would make them a far more balanced team and Boldin could bring them at least one of those players. So assuming a trade is inevitable, who are the likely trading partners and what could the Cards get.
I should mention that most teams could use a player of Boldin’s caliber. So, while I’ll focus on the most obvious choices, nearly anything is possible. Since the Bidwill family abhors embarrassment (other than apparently years of failure) I don’t see Boldin going to a team the Cards will play in 2009 unless that team is not viewed as a threat to win the game. So, eliminate Indy, Minnesota, NYG, Jacksonville, Chicago, Tennessee, Carolina and the NFC West. That’s quite a few teams to rule out, but maybe one of them will take Edwards off the Brown’s hands, making Bolding more valuable. Jacksonville will likely sign Holt so that should also rule them out even if beatable.
That leaves Baltimore, Cleveland, NYJ, Miami, Oakland, Dallas and Philly. Add Detroit to this list as I’m sure they’d be classed as beatable. Assuming the Cards want immediate help, the situation is complicated by previously traded picks. Cleveland has no third round pick, but does have 2 second round picks. Philly just traded their first found selection. Dallas has no round one choice, which removes them, like Philly, from a deal scenario unless players were exchanged. Before considering the remaining contenders, there’s another thing to consider.
What is Boldin worth? What positions in the draft would be attractive? The Lions would be happy to dump the first pick, but the Cards wouldn’t pay those dollars for anyone on the board. That said, any trade would surely have to return a first round pick. It’s safe to assume the Cards would prefer starting with Cleveland at the 5th spot or Oakland at the 7th slot at the earliest. If Curry was still on the board at 5, this pick might be too tempting to reject. At the 7, the Cards would still have their pick of the running backs or Cushing, though most would see the latter as an elevation. The problem with these two picks is the value chart. If you use the Cowboys’ deal for Williams as a yardstick, Detroit got about 1047 value points. That would put the deal at about round one, 15th pick and that’s all the Cards would get. The Cards would have to give up Boldin and picks to move to 5 or 7.
On the other hand, the Colts offer would only value at 850 and surely would not be acceptable as it stands if true. It’s hard to use the Williams' deal as the problems with it cut two ways. The price paid for Williams was widely thought to be too high. Also most analysts put Boldin’s value higher despite the injury factor. Still, we’ve got to start someplace.
So let’s say the Cards only want draft choices and are looking in the 1100 point range, though they might settle for a little less. The Jets deal would be their first and their third with the teams swapping spots in round 3. Baltimore would end up surrendering their first, second and fourth round picks. With 2 second round picks Miami could offer their first and pick number 44 from round two and their sixth round pick. The Cards would then send their third round spot to Miami. The Cards might settle for the first, the other second round and their sixth round selection. Finally, there’s Detroit. They need leadership more than any other team and Boldin provides it. Their receiving corps has been a headache for years. If they offered the 20th pick in round one and the first pick in round 3 this deal would get done before draft day.
In the end, the most likely scenario is that the deal happens on draft day and depends upon who is on the boards at which point. Since Miami and Colts select last, the Cards will probably wait out the first round targeting two positions (maybe 3) and a handful of players. The longer you wait and still get your targets, the more you gain in additional picks. If those players move rapidly, then look for them to approach Detroit or the NYJ. Don’t be surprised if Cleveland or Oakland move down and fall into the same category as Detroit.
I have long maintained this trade is almost certain to happen simply because the Cards proved they have an effective offense without Boldin. They are better with him and he is a great asset, but how many points should a team expect of their offense? It would seem the Cards are good enough to hit any reasonable number with Boldin out of the equation. On the other hand they have several other needs that would make them a far more balanced team and Boldin could bring them at least one of those players. So assuming a trade is inevitable, who are the likely trading partners and what could the Cards get.
I should mention that most teams could use a player of Boldin’s caliber. So, while I’ll focus on the most obvious choices, nearly anything is possible. Since the Bidwill family abhors embarrassment (other than apparently years of failure) I don’t see Boldin going to a team the Cards will play in 2009 unless that team is not viewed as a threat to win the game. So, eliminate Indy, Minnesota, NYG, Jacksonville, Chicago, Tennessee, Carolina and the NFC West. That’s quite a few teams to rule out, but maybe one of them will take Edwards off the Brown’s hands, making Bolding more valuable. Jacksonville will likely sign Holt so that should also rule them out even if beatable.
That leaves Baltimore, Cleveland, NYJ, Miami, Oakland, Dallas and Philly. Add Detroit to this list as I’m sure they’d be classed as beatable. Assuming the Cards want immediate help, the situation is complicated by previously traded picks. Cleveland has no third round pick, but does have 2 second round picks. Philly just traded their first found selection. Dallas has no round one choice, which removes them, like Philly, from a deal scenario unless players were exchanged. Before considering the remaining contenders, there’s another thing to consider.
What is Boldin worth? What positions in the draft would be attractive? The Lions would be happy to dump the first pick, but the Cards wouldn’t pay those dollars for anyone on the board. That said, any trade would surely have to return a first round pick. It’s safe to assume the Cards would prefer starting with Cleveland at the 5th spot or Oakland at the 7th slot at the earliest. If Curry was still on the board at 5, this pick might be too tempting to reject. At the 7, the Cards would still have their pick of the running backs or Cushing, though most would see the latter as an elevation. The problem with these two picks is the value chart. If you use the Cowboys’ deal for Williams as a yardstick, Detroit got about 1047 value points. That would put the deal at about round one, 15th pick and that’s all the Cards would get. The Cards would have to give up Boldin and picks to move to 5 or 7.
On the other hand, the Colts offer would only value at 850 and surely would not be acceptable as it stands if true. It’s hard to use the Williams' deal as the problems with it cut two ways. The price paid for Williams was widely thought to be too high. Also most analysts put Boldin’s value higher despite the injury factor. Still, we’ve got to start someplace.
So let’s say the Cards only want draft choices and are looking in the 1100 point range, though they might settle for a little less. The Jets deal would be their first and their third with the teams swapping spots in round 3. Baltimore would end up surrendering their first, second and fourth round picks. With 2 second round picks Miami could offer their first and pick number 44 from round two and their sixth round pick. The Cards would then send their third round spot to Miami. The Cards might settle for the first, the other second round and their sixth round selection. Finally, there’s Detroit. They need leadership more than any other team and Boldin provides it. Their receiving corps has been a headache for years. If they offered the 20th pick in round one and the first pick in round 3 this deal would get done before draft day.
In the end, the most likely scenario is that the deal happens on draft day and depends upon who is on the boards at which point. Since Miami and Colts select last, the Cards will probably wait out the first round targeting two positions (maybe 3) and a handful of players. The longer you wait and still get your targets, the more you gain in additional picks. If those players move rapidly, then look for them to approach Detroit or the NYJ. Don’t be surprised if Cleveland or Oakland move down and fall into the same category as Detroit.
