The Quarterback Prediction Problem

[GimmedaBall]

Any QB coming out of high school with ambitions to play in the NFL would be well-served to pick a college that runs as close to a pro-style offense as possible. I know that is becoming almost impossible to find. If they want to get drafted high, they need to demonstrate pro-ball skills.

Instead, many college QBs play in a system that leaves NFL scouts/coaches/GMS/fans confused as to how the guy is going to translate into a NFL QB. Even Kurt Warner had to beg off on evaluating the QBs in this draft until he had more understanding as to what the play call required of the college QB. I agree with that as I watch college games---most plays, I don't have a clue what the QB was supposed to do with the ball as the play unfolds.

The more the QB plays in a college system different than a pro-style, the harder it is to anticipate the guy's success at the next level. Case in point in this draft is Lamar Jackson. By any standards at the college level LJ is one of the best QBs in his class. He is a dual threat to pass or run---not many realize he actually had 330 yards more pulling the ball down and running than RB Barkley had as a rusher. Yet this QB is pushed down the rankings. Simply stated---he is not playing the way he will be asked to play in the pros.

There is no way the pro-game can have a QB run the ball as much as LJ. Pro D players won't allow a QB to abuse them for long while running the ball---there will be some extra hard hits and gang tackling for any QB who shows them up on the field. Do it often enough and embarrass enough D players and they'll take the penalty and fine even as the QB surrenders with a slide to get that QB off the field. (See what happened to RGIII and Vick) So the running game---a third of LJ's production---is off the anticipated value of his play. Ditto his peculiar arm movement when throwing---it is more dart tossing than driving the ball. DBs that can blanket a receiver will make him pay since flicking the dart downfield is slower than driving the ball with power.

So, a guy who by any standards of college ball is a top QB gets pushed further and further down the rankings with some (HOF GM Bill Polian for example) even suggesting he switch to WR and not go into the draft as a QB.

By contrast, guys who play college ball closer to the pro-game earn higher ratings---even when they have not put near the college stats of someone like LJ (see Allen, deep ball arm strength but with relatively poor accuracy).

An older article and statistical analysis of the 'Quarterback Prediction Problem' still worth a read:

http://www.biostat.umn.edu/ftp/pub/2010/rr2010-022.pdf

A more recent look at the same problem:

http://duelingdata.blogspot.com/2017/04/predicting-qb-success-in-nfl.html

Here's the full paper for the second reference cited above (sorry for not posting earlier):

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[RugbyMuffin]

It doesn't stop at QB either, IMHO.

Offensive line, and linebackers are also affected by the college style game.

The next question I have to pose back on your post is:

Should young QB's really be looking to learn "pro style" offenses ? Over the last year or so, I have seen NFL teams start to implement more college spread offenses, and colleges based offenses.

Why toil away breaking down players, building them back up, and teaching them pro style techniques and playing styles, only to have them leave when they are just starting to get it all to click ?

A lot of teams are having success running offensives and schemes that players have grown up playing in.

Now I agree, a pro style offense in the NFL beats a college style offense just about every time, BUT a poorly run pro style offense does get beat by a NFL team whose players are all on the same page, but playing a college style offense.

Couple that, with the lack of practice time in the NFL, and you can make a case that the pro style game will be obsolete, just because there is not enough time to re-teach the system when the players get to the pros.

 

[GimmedaBall]

It doesn't stop at QB either, IMHO.

Offensive line, and linebackers are also affected by the college style game.

The next question I have to pose back on your post is:

Should young QB's really be looking to learn "pro style" offenses ? Over the last year or so, I have seen NFL teams start to implement more college spread offenses, and colleges based offenses.

Why toil away breaking down players, building them back up, and teaching them pro style techniques and playing styles, only to have them leave when they are just starting to get it all to click ?

A lot of teams are having success running offensives and schemes that players have grown up playing in.

Now I agree, a pro style offense in the NFL beats a college style offense just about every time, BUT a poorly run pro style offense does get beat by a NFL team whose players are all on the same page, but playing a college style offense.

Couple that, with the lack of practice time in the NFL, and you can make a case that the pro style game will be obsolete, just because there is not enough time to re-teach the system when the players get to the pros.

The NFL will change and become more like the college game when the old school coaches and old school owners retire (or die off). There is a rigidity toward change and coaches are hired based on the 'coaching tree' that they came from---we still have current head coaches who trace back to the original 'Air Coryell' style of play, the 'West Coast Offense,' etc.

If Chip Kelly's game had taken off in the NFL, you'd see more of his offense now---but it didn't. He should have cut all the old dudes on offense and just brought in his college players. LOL.

Pro coaches like to see the play unfold as they designed it. The college QB who has a big dose of 'free-lance' in his game is just not tolerated---the HC/OC can't take credit for the play when it is the result of a guy breaking contain, scrambling around, hitting a guy on the opposite sideline, etc. It is no surprise that a coach with a big part of his career as a college guy---Pete Carroll---is comfortable with a free-lance guy like R. Wilson. Most NFL HC would cringe at that style. Which is also why a lot of them will pass on LJ---they don't want their QB risking it with free-lance runs that can get him killed.

 

[BW52]

Any QB coming out of high school with ambitions to play in the NFL would be well-served to pick a college that runs as close to a pro-style offense as possible. I know that is becoming almost impossible to find. If they want to get drafted high, they need to demonstrate pro-ball skills.

Instead, many college QBs play in a system that leaves NFL scouts/coaches/GMS/fans confused as to how the guy is going to translate into a NFL QB. Even Kurt Warner had to beg off on evaluating the QBs in this draft until he had more understanding as to what the play call required of the college QB. I agree with that as I watch college games---most plays, I don't have a clue what the QB was supposed to do with the ball as the play unfolds.

The more the QB plays in a college system different than a pro-style, the harder it is to anticipate the guy's success at the next level. Case in point in this draft is Lamar Jackson. By any standards at the college level LJ is one of the best QBs in his class. He is a dual threat to pass or run---not many realize he actually had 330 yards more pulling the ball down and running than RB Barkley had as a rusher. Yet this QB is pushed down the rankings. Simply stated---he is not playing the way he will be asked to play in the pros.

There is no way the pro-game can have a QB run the ball as much as LJ. Pro D players won't allow a QB to abuse them for long while running the ball---there will be some extra hard hits and gang tackling for any QB who shows them up on the field. Do it often enough and embarrass enough D players and they'll take the penalty and fine even as the QB surrenders with a slide to get that QB off the field. (See what happened to RGIII and Vick) So the running game---a third of LJ's production---is off the anticipated value of his play. Ditto his peculiar arm movement when throwing---it is more dart tossing than driving the ball. DBs that can blanket a receiver will make him pay since flicking the dart downfield is slower than driving the ball with power.

So, a guy who by any standards of college ball is a top QB gets pushed further and further down the rankings with some (HOF GM Bill Polian for example) even suggesting he switch to WR and not go into the draft as a QB.

By contrast, guys who play college ball closer to the pro-game earn higher ratings---even when they have not put near the college stats of someone like LJ (see Allen, deep ball arm strength but with relatively poor accuracy).

An older article and statistical analysis of the 'Quarterback Prediction Problem' still worth a read:

http://www.biostat.umn.edu/ftp/pub/2010/rr2010-022.pdf

Good thoughts but; Lamar Jackson ran for his life last season more often than not.Yes UL did have some running plays for LJ because he was probably the best runner in the offense also.As a Pro player there should be a much better supporting cast around him and one would expect that he would not be forced to be the entire offense.You are right about playing in a Pro-ready system and the advantages but you also have to factor in the other issues that made the situation what it was.Asw for his throwing motion -things can be corrected and every QB is this draft has some technique or release issue (Darnold-slow release)( Rosen-slow setup)( Mayfield-short,low release,deep throw arm strength)(Allen-technique)(Rudolph-technique).Every one of these guys have issues no matter what system they played in college.
The big question is can said issues be corrected and what is the best that player can be.Do you trade up for the supposedly 2 guys closest to NFL ready (Darnold,Rosen) or believe Mayfleid can overcome his lack of height and lack of big arm and stay healthy with his scrambling to be your QB? Or do you pick the cannon armed big QB who can throw it thru a barn but sometimes misses the barn completely.I really wonder which route SK takes but i think he takes BPA (if top 5 QBs are gone by #15 and picks a QB in 2 or 3

 

[GimmedaBall]

Good thoughts but; Lamar Jackson ran for his life last season more often than not.Yes UL did have some running plays for LJ because he was probably the best runner in the offense also.As a Pro player there should be a much better supporting cast around him and one would expect that he would not be forced to be the entire offense.You are right about playing in a Pro-ready system and the advantages but you also have to factor in the other issues that made the situation what it was.Asw for his throwing motion -things can be corrected and every QB is this draft has some technique or release issue (Darnold-slow release)( Rosen-slow setup)( Mayfield-short,low release,deep throw arm strength)(Allen-technique)(Rudolph-technique).Every one of these guys have issues no matter what system they played in college.
The big question is can said issues be corrected and what is the best that player can be.Do you trade up for the supposedly 2 guys closest to NFL ready (Darnold,Rosen) or believe Mayfleid can overcome his lack of height and lack of big arm and stay healthy with his scrambling to be your QB? Or do you pick the cannon armed big QB who can throw it thru a barn but sometimes misses the barn completely.I really wonder which route SK takes but i think he takes BPA (if top 5 QBs are gone by #15 and picks a QB in 2 or 3

Thanks for responding to the LJ portion of my OP.

Do you have any comments on the statistical breakdown articles that I posted now that you have had some time to read them?

 

[RugbyMuffin]

The NFL will change and become more like the college game when the old school coaches and old school owners retire (or die off).

I agree with this statement.

It has made me question the need for sinking money into the offensive line.

 

[AZfaninMN]

The NFL will change and become more like the college game when the old school coaches and old school owners retire (or die off). There is a rigidity toward change and coaches are hired based on the 'coaching tree' that they came from---we still have current head coaches who trace back to the original 'Air Coryell' style of play, the 'West Coast Offense,' etc.

If Chip Kelly's game had taken off in the NFL, you'd see more of his offense now---but it didn't. He should have cut all the old dudes on offense and just brought in his college players. LOL.

Pro coaches like to see the play unfold as they designed it. The college QB who has a big dose of 'free-lance' in his game is just not tolerated---the HC/OC can't take credit for the play when it is the result of a guy breaking contain, scrambling around, hitting a guy on the opposite sideline, etc. It is no surprise that a coach with a big part of his career as a college guy---Pete Carroll---is comfortable with a free-lance guy like R. Wilson. Most NFL HC would cringe at that style. Which is also why a lot of them will pass on LJ---they don't want their QB risking it with free-lance runs that can get him killed.

I will disagree. I don’t think the pro game will look more like the college game. The reason why the college game works the way it does is because of different levels of talent and Athleticism.

Chip Kelly’s offense was the most explosive offense in the NFL when it first started. However, the NFL adapted and his defenses was always on the field. The college game is similar. They try to out score their opponents rather than beating them, if that makes sense.

I wouldn’t say the college game is more freelance. I would say it’s more simplified, especially in a spread or air raid type of offense. They split players out and receive a play from the sidelines that can exploit the opponents weakness.

The read option, smoke screens, and up tempo offense can be used in the league to change it up, but they as we’ve seen teams adapt. Read options got QBs hurt, smoke screens slowed by press man, and up tempo offenses didn’t allow the d to get any rest.

I’m not really a college football fan because of the lack of “football” being played in some games. It seems to be more of a track meet for the teams best players. I enjoy watching smash mouth football and the triple option attack rather than the air raid/spread game.

 

[BW52]

Thanks for responding to the LJ portion of my OP.

Do you have any comments on the statistical breakdown articles that I posted now that you have had some time to read them?

Interesting .I would like to the the results using those conditions on the top 10 QBs in this draft/.

 

[GimmedaBall]

The NFL game will have to adopt changes that will in the end make it look more like the college game.

The biggest reason driving the change is the fact that teams can no longer harvest college QBs---and a lot of the other positions as well---who have been taught to play to the current pro-style offense.

There are currently about 15 or so competent NFL QBs---about half the teams are trying to make do with guys who came out of college without the pro-game experience and are having to learn on the fly. The CBA has drastically cut back on pad time/practice with the players and getting a college player up to speed is almost impossible. When the season starts, the reps go to the 1st stringers to get the plays in for the upcoming game.

As more teams fall flat on their face with their QB draft attempts, the move will be to just hire a college HC/OC and install the O based on the college game. The Chip Kelly experiment was the first full on attempt that I am aware of to do that and his failure ironically extended the life of the current pro-game model. Sooner rather than later as the old school HC and old school owners leave the scene there will be more of the college game in the pros. Ditto as some of the old school QBs retire and ride off into the sunset. Who is going to be there to mentor the QBs from the college ranks when the old school QBs are gone?

All it is going to take is for the next 'Chip Kelly' to arrive on the scene and blow away the competition with a college QB and college playbook.

Also, I never said the college game was more freelance---I was talking about QBs who have more freelance in their style of play. Difference. The college offense is, like you say, more track meet and relay race but that doesn't mean it is freelance---playbooks and scheme is still important at the college level.

 

[pinetopred]

I hope anyone saying the pro game needs to go more to the college gane is wrong. College football sucks to watch the way it's being played IMO. and I don't want to watch that on Sundays I think ASU was very smart getting a pro coach, if he can sell the pro style offense on the recuiting trail they can do what Stanford did on a larger scale

 

[GimmedaBall]

I hope anyone saying the pro game needs to go more to the college gane is wrong. College football sucks to watch the way it's being played IMO. and I don't want to watch that on Sundays I think ASU was very smart getting a pro coach, if he can sell the pro style offense on the recuiting trail they can do what Stanford did on a larger scale

If you want to draft plug-and-play college players to the pro game the pros will have to evolve to more of the college style.

The NFL is still running QBs who drive steam locomotives and not too many colleges are offering degrees in steam locomotives.

Some positions still translate---for example a cover CB in college is learning the techniques he'll need as a pro. Same with a RB who is learning running lanes, cutbacks, field vision, etc that translates. You can pretty much predict what you'll get from a good college CB or RB by their stats/film from college.

On the other hand, look at OL who have never played with a QB under center or had to defend a QB pocket. Even top LTs come out and need major tutoring---we saw that happen with Hump who was given freshman time at RT in order to learn the pro game. Some LT come out and never had to drop back to pass defend and then they get drafted and end up as major projects/busts. . . that disconnect drove BA crazy.

 

[pinetopred]

If you want to draft plug-and-play college players to the pro game the pros will have to evolve to more of the college style.

The NFL is still running QBs who drive steam locomotives and not too many colleges are offering degrees in steam locomotives.

Some positions still translate---for example a cover CB in college is learning the techniques he'll need as a pro. Same with a RB who is learning running lanes, cutbacks, field vision, etc that translates. You can pretty much predict what you'll get from a good college CB or RB by their stats/film from college.

On the other hand, look at OL who have never played with a QB under center or had to defend a QB pocket. Even top LTs come out and need major tutoring---we saw that happen with Hump who was given freshman time at RT in order to learn the pro game. Some LT come out and never had to drop back to pass defend and then they get drafted and end up as major projects/busts. . . that disconnect drove BA crazy.

I agree just don't like it. If I were a college AD my first hire would be a Pro sryle coach. It may be a dinosaur but it works for a reason. I watch the college game and get bored it's to predictable a decent defensive coordinator can gane plan the crap they play on Saturdays anymore, and destroy it on Sundays. JMO

 

[pinetopred]

And why does the wheel need to keep getting invented. The game of football is still simple

 

[WisconsinCard]

I’m not really a college football fan because of the lack of “football” being played in some games. It seems to be more of a track meet for the teams best players. I enjoy watching smash mouth football and the triple option attack rather than the air raid/spread game.

You're not a fan but we pile up every Saturday I'm there to watch it... I got three letters for you...ASU...Trump...

The thing that I think is killing college football is the rush up to the line of scrimmage, start the cadence, and the everybody stops and looks to the sidelines for the plays. I hate that, but I'll still watch

 

[GimmedaBall]

And why does the wheel need to keep getting invented. The game of football is still simple

Here's an interesting article on the history of the forward pass---at one time considered a 'sissified' way of playing football.

Note that the early passing game was established by Native American players from the Carlisle Indian Industrial School/Pop Warner and Jim Thorpe.

And you thought the Three Stooges and the Marx Brothers invented the notion of stuffing the football in a loose jersey and hiding it from the defense.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-early-history-of-footballs-forward-pass-78015237/

 

[GimmedaBall]

Interesting .I would like to the the results using those conditions on the top 10 QBs in this draft/.

I'm going to first try to sell the finished article. If not, I'll post my number crunching here. PS--You can do the numbers yourself if you're really interested.

 

[AZfaninMN]

You're not a fan but we pile up every Saturday I'm there to watch it... I got three letters for you...ASU...Trump...

The thing that I think is killing college football is the rush up to the line of scrimmage, start the cadence, and the everybody stops and looks to the sidelines for the plays. I hate that, but I'll still watch

It’s still football, so of course I watch it. Just don’t watch it as closely as the NFL

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I hope anyone saying the pro game needs to go more to the college gane is wrong.

Not sure anyone is saying "need", personally I prefer watching more "Pro Style" football, but what is trending in the NFL, and what is seen out on the football field, definitely shows a change to the game.

I guess what is being said, is whether it is needed or not, is not really the point, the point is that it is coming whether we want to acknowledge it or not.

 

[moklerman]

I have often wondered about whether college style offenses would work at an NFL level. In an overly simplistic way, it's never made sense to me why at least some of them wouldn't translate. Seems logical to think that with elite talent running the offense that it could be just as viable as the "pro style". The simplicity of the college game must be overpowered by NFL caliber defenses though. Some concepts seem to work for a time, but they all seem to get swallowed up and adapted to.

I think as fans, we probably confuse terminology in these conversations too. What does college vs. pro "style" really mean for example? I think we think we know, but often don't really have a common definition. Ultimately, I think Mora might have had it right. We think we know, but we don't. We really don't.

If there was an algorithm that could predict player success, SOMEONE in the NFL would have found it by now. It's what makes the game great. So many moving parts and variables that's it's virtually impossible to predict anything. With QB's, every aspect of their games is analyzed and broken down, collated and assimilated, but at the end of the day it's like quantifying one's soul. "It" can't really be measured or even identified. A QB either has "it" once the NFL lights go on or he doesn't.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Sports Illustrated had a great article a few years back on how the college game is no longer providing players which translate to the traditional college game, with QBs in a spread offense not operating under center and OL men which are not required to hold a block. They cited Sabin, "my job is to win football games and not get players ready for the NFL". Players do not stay in college long enough now and bolt for the pro paycheck, and college scheming has become the great equalizer for smaller programs to compete with national powerhouses