The way too early wildcard watch thread.2024

[Dback Jon]

Braves up early on the Mets 3-0

 

[Dback Jon]

Braves up 5-0 bottom of 5

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Dbacks feeling confident

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Dbacks feeling confident

Yikes

 

[Sparky16]

what an epic fail - every time this team spends $ on pitching it craps the bed. Monty & Rod are trash and the BP tanked

 

[GatorAZ]

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[Chris_Sanders]

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Well that really hurts us. The Mets might not have anything to play for if they win 2 or 3 in Milwaukee. It's getting increasingly difficult to see a path to the playoffs

 

[GatorAZ]

Well that really hurts us. The Mets might not have anything to play for if they win 2 or 3 in Milwaukee. It's getting increasingly difficult to see a path to the playoffs

And the Brewers have nothing to play for vs the Mets this weekend. The Mets are pretty much in so I could see them forfeiting the doubleheader to set their rotation for the playoffs.

 

[Gambler]

And the Brewers have nothing to play for vs the Mets this weekend. The Mets are pretty much in so I could see them forfeiting the doubleheader to set their rotation for the playoffs.

Here come the fines and possible suspensions if it affects seeding. But anything is possible.

This is an interesting post by a Braves fan:

Wild Card Scenarios (or why these last two Mets games are needed no matter what)​

There seems to be a lot of confusion around scenarios for these final 5 games, so I decided to do the math. I'm operating under the assumption that the final two games of this Mets series are unable to be played today and tomorrow, which, based on the current forecast, seems inevitable.
First, let's set the stage. Right now, we (86-71) are 1 GB of the Mets (87-70). Meanwhile, we have the Dbacks at 87-71 (4 games to go -- tonight against the Giants and then Fri-Sun against the Padres who are suddenly in a very tight race of their own for the division). Meanwhile, we have 3 games against the Royals in Atlanta Fri-Sun and the Mets have 3 games in Milwaukee. If you're wondering, the Royals are looking good for a playoff spot, but there's lots of traffic behind them and they're fighting for seeding with the Tigers as well, so unfortunately they are likely to care quite a bit about our games with them (and this also rules out the extremely far-fetched situation where both the Royals and Brewers would not need to play the Sunday game).
As far as tiebreakers go, we are 6-5 against the Mets this year, meaning the only way we do not end up with this tiebreak is if we lose the final 2 games to them. We also own the H2H tiebreak over the Dbacks. The Mets split their season series with the Dbacks, but have a big lead in the next tiebreaker, which is intradivisional record (yes, even for teams competing for a WC spot who are not in the same division), where the Mets are 29-21 and the Dbacks are 26-22.
Let's talk about game results now. We will try to answer the question "is it possible that these two games against the Mets are unnecessary?"
Scenario #1: The Braves open up a large lead: if we sweep the Royals, we'd be 89-71. If the Mets are swept by the Brewers, they end up 87-73. Meaning the last games against us could potentially deliver them both the overall record tie as well as the season series tiebreak. Therefore, this is not a viable situation to invalidate the need for these two games (though in this scenario, if we won the first half of the potential Monday DH, the second would likely be unnecessary...I say "likely" because it depends on what the Dbacks do).
Scenario #2: The Dbacks choke enough to where the Mets get in either way. The worst the Dbacks can do is 87-75, and if the Mets sweep the Brewers (or win at least 2 games) and we sweep the Royals, we'd both be clear of the Dbacks at 90-70 and 89-71, respectively. Our 89-71 would be good enough compared to the Dbacks' 87-75 because even 2 losses in the last two unplayed Mets games would leave us in a tie with the Dbacks, and as I said above, we have the tiebreaker. However...the seeding would still be unresolved here between the Braves and the Mets, so at least 1 game with them would still be needed to determine who is the #5 and who is the #6.
Scenario #3a: The Dbacks dominate enough to where the Braves are out regardless. The best the Dbacks can do is 91-71. If the Braves get swept by the Royals, we'd end up 86-74. If the Mets win at least 2 games against the Brewers, they'd be 89-71+, making them clear of us, but still potentially able to catch the Dbacks (and in theory the Padres, who can still end up 91-71, and would suffer 3 losses if the DBacks swept them) by sweeping their remaining 2 games against us, improving their divisional record enough to win that tiebreak. So again, at least 1 game would still be needed.
Scenario #3a-1: The Dbacks dominate enough to where the Braves are out regardless,part 2. This scenario is the same as above, but here the Mets only win 1 game against the Brewers, and are therefore unable to catch the Dbacks at 91-71. However...now they're 88-72, meaning even in the worst case where we are swept by the Royals and are 86-74, we can still catch them by winning our last two games.
Scenario #3b: The Dbacks dominate enough to where the Mets are out regardless. The best the Dbacks can do is 91-71. If the Mets get swept by the Brewers, they'd end up 87-73, but if you refer to Scenario #1, we would still be at most 2 games up on the Mets, meaning the last games are still needed.
In conclusion, I cannot see a situation where at least one of these games isn't needed to determine AT LEAST seeding, including in the depressing Scenario #3a, where we can only play spoiler. So to the people who have said "there are scenarios where the games aren't needed"...please let me know if you guys see any errors!

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[TigToad]

We need the Mets or Braves to sweep tomorrow

NL wild-card standings, explained: Updated Braves, Mets, Diamondbacks playoff chances and tiebreakers for 2024 MLB bracket | Sporting News

The wild-card race between the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks will come down to the final weekend — and potentially even Monday.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[krazy2k]

We need the Mets or Braves to sweep tomorrow

NL wild-card standings, explained: Updated Braves, Mets, Diamondbacks playoff chances and tiebreakers for 2024 MLB bracket | Sporting News

The wild-card race between the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks will come down to the final weekend — and potentially even Monday.

www.sportingnews.com

Yes we do. But it is unlikely to happen. Both of these teams are from the NL East and will collude to ensure 3 of the 6 teams in the NL postseason are from the NL East. Whoever wins the first game will use "scrubs" in the 2nd game. Too bad the DBacks couldn't beat the Padres "scrubs" on Saturday.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yes we do. But it is unlikely to happen. Both of these teams are from the NL East and will collude to ensure 3 of the 6 teams in the NL postseason are from the NL East. Whoever wins the first game will use "scrubs" in the 2nd game. Too bad the DBacks couldn't beat the Padres "scrubs" on Saturday.

Do you really believe that or are you just letting off a little frustration? I could see that kind of thinking if you're talking about college conferences but I've never seen any indication that it might happen in the pros. In fact, I would expect the opposite.

Sure, the winner of the first game might sit key players in the second game but IMO it will be solely to "rest" them. I know what you've suggested would never happen with the Dodgers and the Giants for example, either team (and most teams) would be far more likely to try and spoil things for a divisional rival.

 

[unseenaz]

The team that wins game 1 will rest starters to prepare for the playoffs.. literally no other reason. They aren’t gonna have their guys play a double header a day before playoffs so they can stick it to their divisional rival.

Dbacks knew the stakes headed into the SD series and thoroughly crapped the bed.

 

[krazy2k]

The team that wins game 1 will rest starters to prepare for the playoffs.. literally no other reason. They aren’t gonna have their guys play a double header a day before playoffs so they can stick it to their divisional rival.

Dbacks knew the stakes headed into the SD series and thoroughly crapped the bed.

They crapped the bed in Milwaukee last Sunday, crapped the bed against an inferior Giants team, and then crapped the bed against the Padres (particularly on Saturday when the Padres fielded their "scrubs"). In fact, the DBacks crapped the bed for most of September. I want them to win and make the postseason, but they only have themselves to blame if they don't make it in this year.

 

[Bobster]

It all started when they were swept by Tampa Bay. That threw everything into neutral, and then slowly they went into reverse.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

They crapped the bed in Milwaukee last Sunday, crapped the bed against an inferior Giants team, and then crapped the bed against the Padres (particularly on Saturday when the Padres fielded their "scrubs"). In fact, the DBacks crapped the bed for most of September. I want them to win and make the postseason, but they only have themselves to blame if they don't make it in this year.

That's a lot of crapping.

 

[GatorAZ]

It all started when they were swept by Tampa Bay. That threw everything into neutral, and then slowly they went into reverse.

They won 6 straight after getting swept in Tampa. There’s just no way you can lose the series vs SF after the 8-0 meltdown in Milwaukee.

 

[AZCB34]

The team that wins game 1 will rest starters to prepare for the playoffs.. literally no other reason. They aren’t gonna have their guys play a double header a day before playoffs so they can stick it to their divisional rival.

Dbacks knew the stakes headed into the SD series and thoroughly crapped the bed.

Thinking outside the box:

If you were, say, the Braves and you win game 1 of the DH, would you consider forfeiting game 2 which allows you to avoid any injury that could affect your playoff prospects and it also allows you to head out to where you are going to play your wild card round games?

 

[Devilmaycare]

Thinking outside the box:

If you were, say, the Braves and you win game 1 of the DH, would you consider forfeiting game 2 which allows you to avoid any injury that could affect your playoff prospects and it also allows you to head out to where you are going to play your wild card round games?

I can't see them doing it or Manfred allowing them to forfeit on integrity of the game grounds since it affects who gets into the playoffs. If he did then he needs to be ousted and Kenesaw's ghost might come get him. If it didn't determine the last slot then I could see it happening but not with the current scenario. They at least have to pretend to try even if they sit a bunch of starters.

 

[AZCB34]

I can't see them doing it or Manfred allowing them to forfeit on integrity of the game grounds since it affects who gets into the playoffs. If he did then he needs to be ousted and Kenesaw's ghost might come get him. If it didn't determine the last slot then I could see it happening but not with the current scenario. They at least have to pretend to try even if they sit a bunch of starters.

I agree but I was just thinking how this could possibly go. The Dbacks are basically forcing this DH to be played. Manfred has the power to cancel the games tomorrow and has the Dbacks lost today I’m not so sure he wouldn’t have exercised that power

 

[82CardsGrad]

They crapped the bed in Milwaukee last Sunday, crapped the bed against an inferior Giants team, and then crapped the bed against the Padres (particularly on Saturday when the Padres fielded their "scrubs"). In fact, the DBacks crapped the bed for most of September. I want them to win and make the postseason, but they only have themselves to blame if they don't make it in this year.

Profar, Machado, Bogaerts, Peralta and Higgy all started and played the entire game on Saturday.

 

[Dback Jon]

First game starts at 10:10 Arizona time

 

[AZCB34]

First game starts at 10:10 Arizona time

Not terribly meaningful but here we go. Game 2 tells the story

 

[GatorAZ]

Rooting for the Bravos.

 

[Gambler]

This could be collusion at it's best, or for us, worst.