There is nothing wrong with sucking for Luck

[GatorAZ]

Current Draft Order -

     Team Record  Win % Opp Rec   SoS 
----------------------------------------
1)  IND 0-8 .000 65-54 .5462 
2)  MIA 0-7 .000 64-49 .5664 
3)  ARI 1-6 .143 55-60 .4783 
4)  STL 1-6 .143 63-51 .5526 
5)  CAR 2-6 .250 60-59 .5042 
6)  JAC 2-6 .250 60-59 .5042 
7)  MIN 2-6 .250 67-49 .5776 
8)  SEA 2-5 .286 57-56 .5044 
9)  DEN 2-5 .286 66-48 .5789 
10) WAS 3-4 .429 50-64 .4386 
11) PHI 3-4 .429 54-58 .4821 
12) CLE 3-4 .429 57-60 .4872 
13) DAL 3-4 .429 56-57 .4956 
14) TEN 4-3 .571 55-66 .4545 
15) ATL 4-3 .571 57-64 .4711 [Traded to Cleveland]
16) NYJ 4-3 .571 55-58 .4867 
17) TB  4-3 .571 61-60 .5041 
18) KC  4-3 .571 59-57 .5086 
19) SD  4-3 .571 60-55 .5217 
20) OAK 4-3 .571 61-54 .5304 [Traded to Cincinnati]
21) CHI 4-3 .571 64-54 .5424 
22) HOU 5-3 .625 50-69 .4202 
23) NO  5-3 .625 56-63 .4706 [Traded to New England]
24) NE  5-2 .714 52-62 .4561 
25) NYG 5-2 .714 54-59 .4779 
26) CIN 5-2 .714 56-61 .4786 
27) BAL 5-2 .714 57-60 .4872 
28) BUF 5-2 .714 55-57 .4911 
29) PIT 6-2 .750 56-59 .4870 
30) DET 6-2 .750 64-52 .5517 
31) SF  6-1 .857 51-63 .4474 
32) GB  7-0 1.000  59-59 .5000

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Maybe you skipped a sentence. I'm saying nothing about the guy or whether he's the highest touted prospect of the last decade or two. I think he is. However, I was disputing someone's contention that "everyone with credibility" considers him "a can't miss prospect". There are detractors out there although admittedly they are a distinct minority. And they all seem to focus on one thing, arm strength.

Steve

How often do you actually see Peyton throw a rocket? Not very much, most of his throws are finesse and have great touch, and the same can be said about Luck. Tom Brady was scouted as having a weak arm, but Jamarcus Russell had a cannon, so arm strength is a moot point. Accuracy and touch are much more valuable, and you hardly ever see Luck make an inaccurate throw, even while on the run (running to the left or right).

To the notion that we wouldn't take Luck if given the opportunity is unfathomable. Kolb isn't close to the talent of Luck, and Kolb's contract is irrelevant if it comes to drafting the greatest prospect in the past decade. There are plenty of teams in the league that have high paid QB's and still draft QB's high in the draft. QB is by far the most important position in sports, so why pass on a great prospect when the talent you have presently isn't coming close to meeting expectations. Where would the Colts be if they traded Manning? One word, failure.

 

[AzStevenCal]

How often do you actually see Peyton throw a rocket? Not very much, most of his throws are finesse and have great touch, and the same can be said about Luck. Tom Brady was scouted as having a weak arm, but Jamarcus Russell had a cannon, so arm strength is a moot point. Accuracy and touch are much more valuable, and you hardly ever see Luck make an inaccurate throw, even while on the run (running to the left or right).

To the notion that we wouldn't take Luck if given the opportunity is unfathomable. Kolb isn't close to the talent of Luck, and Kolb's contract is irrelevant if it comes to drafting the greatest prospect in the past decade. There are plenty of teams in the league that have high paid QB's and still draft QB's high in the draft. QB is by far the most important position in sports, so why pass on a great prospect when the talent you have presently isn't coming close to meeting expectations. Where would the Colts be if they traded Manning? One word, failure.

You're missing the point. It isn't my opinion that he lacks arm strength, it's just a point that's been mentioned several times when the focus turns to Luck. I'm merely contesting your point that everyone is in agreement on him. He's about as rock solid of a number one pick as we've seen in quite some time but there are still analysts that have questions about his transition to the pros. I think he'll be at least a good QB but playing the position in college is not the same as playing it in the NFL and there is just no such thing as a can't miss prospect.

Steve

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

You're missing the point. It isn't my opinion that he lacks arm strength, it's just a point that's been mentioned several times when the focus turns to Luck. I'm merely contesting your point that everyone is in agreement on him. He's about as rock solid of a number one pick as we've seen in quite some time but there are still analysts that have questions about his transition to the pros. I think he'll be at least a good QB but playing the position in college is not the same as playing it in the NFL and there is just no such thing as a can't miss prospect.

Steve

Very true. I wasn't necessarily directing that argument to you specifically, but more towards those who grade Luck lower because they think he has a weak arm. You are definitely right though, there really is no way of knowing how someone will transition to the speed of the NFL, some people just don't adapt well, no matter how highly touted coming out of college. Luck seems like a low risk, high reward type player, and definitely hard to pass up.

 

[Duckjake]

Hardly, that was more than a decade ago, I'm sure most of those 'analysts' are long gone by now. Ryan Leaf was not rated 99 on everyone's draft board, by the way, and didn't possess the intagibles that Luck displays. Other than Luck's athleticism and arm, his ability to read the defense and call audibles/line protections is already better than some NFL QB's, plus his maturity is unquestionable. He's not considered a 'project' either, like other failed QB's who were taken high in the draft simply for their athleticism.

He (Mel Kiper) has served as an analyst for ESPN's annual NFL draft coverage since 1984, providing in-depth information on the nation's potential draft picks.

McShay is the director of college football scouting for ESPN Scouts Inc., where he has been evaluating prospects for the NFL Draft since 1998

Here's a couple who are still around. Don't know how they rated Manning and Leaf though.

Just because Leaf was different doesn't mean people weren't wrong about him.

Interesting article on the '98 draft: http://tnjn.com/2008/apr/26/nfl-draft-a-decade-removed-fro/

 

[chickenhead]

A lot of people had Manning rated over Leaf, too. But I think Leaf is more the exception that proves the rule. He WAS a tremendous prospect, and he flamed out in tremendous fashion. No one actually drafted Leaf over Manning. When the Chargers took him, Manning was already gone. I don't think them "missing" on Leaf is anywhere near as unforgivable as some of the passing on players the Cardinals have done.

 

[Duckjake]

Amazing how hard it is to forecast a draft.

Best pick: Matt Leinart, QB, USC. Leinart's fall quickly became the Cardinals' fortune as the tenth pick. The former Trojans southpaw will get a year to learn behind Kurt Warner before being given the keys to a car that is already fully loaded with running back Edgerrin James and wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Other great values include tight end Leonard Pope (Georgia) in the third round and defensive tackle Gabe Watson (Michigan) in the fourth round.

Worst pick: Deuce Lutui, OG, USC. This is the worst pick of an outstanding draft from top to bottom. Lutui was a good value in the second round but the Cardinals could have addressed another position of need here and got a quality guard later in the draft.

Work to do: One of the Cardinals' top areas of need entering this year's draft was in the defensive secondary, yet they failed to select a cornerback or safety with any of their seven picks. Depth is especially thin at safety behind strong safety Adrian Wilson and aging free safety Robert Griffith.

Nothing in this world is dead solid perfect.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Maybe you skipped a sentence. I'm saying nothing about the guy or whether he's the highest touted prospect of the last decade or two. I think he is. However, I was disputing someone's contention that "everyone with credibility" considers him "a can't miss prospect". There are detractors out there although admittedly they are a distinct minority. And they all seem to focus on one thing, arm strength.

Steve

can you point me to any of these guys? Because i've literally seen nothing that says this.

and phil simms is an NFL analyst... he's not a college football hock or a draft analyst.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

You're missing the point. It isn't my opinion that he lacks arm strength, it's just a point that's been mentioned several times when the focus turns to Luck. I'm merely contesting your point that everyone is in agreement on him. He's about as rock solid of a number one pick as we've seen in quite some time but there are still analysts that have questions about his transition to the pros. I think he'll be at least a good QB but playing the position in college is not the same as playing it in the NFL and there is just no such thing as a can't miss prospect.

Steve

Lets say arguably the 4 best QB's in the league are Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton. You could say that only Rodgers has good arm strength. Give me accuracy and decision making over arm strength any day.

can you point me to any of these guys? Because i've literally seen nothing that says this.

and phil simms is an NFL analyst... he's not a college football hock or a draft analyst.

Yep. I can't find one either.

 

[AzStevenCal]

can you point me to any of these guys? Because i've literally seen nothing that says this.

and phil simms is an NFL analyst... he's not a college football hock or a draft analyst.

I guess if you disqualify everyone that says otherwise, you'll find nothing but warm and happy Luck comments. However, between the ESPNU channel and ESPNEWS channel I've heard more than a few concerns about him - Phil Simms was just the most recent.

I remember one scout/analyst talking about the fact that Luck has extra motion in his delivery which results in a loss of zip on the ball. Also, he has a tendency to throw sidearm and despite his ability to read defenses he still locks on to his first receiver too often. Sorry, I don't remember names but I'm sure I'm not the only person that has heard these comments. He's still far and away the most promising QB prospect in quite some time but I (and others) disagree with the suggestion that he's risk free.

Steve

 

[Russ Smith]

I guess if you disqualify everyone that says otherwise, you'll find nothing but warm and happy Luck comments. However, between the ESPNU channel and ESPNEWS channel I've heard more than a few concerns about him - Phil Simms was just the most recent.

I remember one scout/analyst talking about the fact that Luck has extra motion in his delivery which results in a loss of zip on the ball. Also, he has a tendency to throw sidearm and despite his ability to read defenses he still locks on to his first receiver too often. Sorry, I don't remember names but I'm sure I'm not the only person that has heard these comments. He's still far and away the most promising QB prospect in quite some time but I (and others) disagree with the suggestion that he's risk free.

Steve

Interesting I don't really see his motion as sidearm at all. He always has that elbow cocked before he throws, sometimes his release point seems low, and he doesn't always throw spirals(neither did Warner), but I don't see sidearm much from him.

I'm sure there are critics where I live he's a god so you don't see much in the Bay Area that's not praise.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Interesting I don't really see his motion as sidearm at all. He always has that elbow cocked before he throws, sometimes his release point seems low, and he doesn't always throw spirals(neither did Warner), but I don't see sidearm much from him.

I'm sure there are critics where I live he's a god so you don't see much in the Bay Area that's not praise.

I don't either. I've only seen him play a half dozen times and he's been outstanding every time I've watched. But, despite my inability to attribute that comment, I know I've either heard or read that said. Maybe I'll google Luck reviews and see if I can find some negatives that match what I've come across.

Steve
-----------------Edit:
I searched for negative reviews on Luck and didn't find very much. Nfldraftbible had a very positive writeup but also mentioned several of the concerns that I brought up. Also, Tom Melton had this to say about Luck: Negatives: There aren’t a lot of things wrong with Luck’s game, but there are some things that I noticed and had problems with when watching him. First, he doesn’t have the best pocket poise. Especially off of play action he tends to panic and start to scramble if his first or second read isn’t there, and he will throw off balance a lot in these situations. Whether it is off of his back foot or while he is scrambling (even across his body occasionally) he will throw passes without setting his feet which I don’t like to see. He needs to work on his pocket presence if possible. I don’t know if he has a problem feeling the pressure, but he just needs to learn to step up into the pocket and buy time by side-stepping the rush at times instead of pulling the ball down to scramble. He also needs to be coached to not throw off of his back foot as often as he does. He also doesn’t have very good arm strength. He has great zip on passes to about 20-25 yards, but when he tries to throw a deep ball he will often be encountered with underthrown passes that have a lot of air under them. That is something he needs to work on.

So again, I'll stand by what I've said. He's a tremendous prospect but there are concerns about his game and whether he'll be as successful in the NFL as many have predicted. I don't think I've seen anyone predicting failure for the guy but not everyone is convinced he'll be the next Peyton Manning.

 

[chickenhead]

Most of what I've heard from what I would consider reputable sources is usually along the lines of "most NFL ready," "best prospect since Manning," etc. I don't usually hear anyone way can't-miss. There is always doubt. The one absolute I usually hear is "if you have the pick, you take him."

Now I'm sure things will get more interesting with the circus that is the combine. Maybe Barkley blows it up and suddenly we have a competition (that will, of course, sell papers and podcasts and will make people come back after the commercial).

But with a quick glance at the Colts and Dolphins' schedules compared to ours--I just don't see it being our problem.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Most of what I've heard from what I would consider reputable sources is usually along the lines of "most NFL ready," "best prospect since Manning," etc. I don't usually hear anyone way can't-miss. There is always doubt. The one absolute I usually hear is "if you have the pick, you take him."

Now I'm sure things will get more interesting with the circus that is the combine. Maybe Barkley blows it up and suddenly we have a competition (that will, of course, sell papers and podcasts and will make people come back after the commercial).

But with a quick glance at the Colts and Dolphins' schedules compared to ours--I just don't see it being our problem.

I agree. The "can't miss" and "greatest prospect ever" and "greatest college player of all time" etc. that some of us have reacted to are statements offered on this board by fans.

Steve

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

I don't either. I've only seen him play a half dozen times and he's been outstanding every time I've watched. But, despite my inability to attribute that comment, I know I've either heard or read that said. Maybe I'll google Luck reviews and see if I can find some negatives that match what I've come across.

Steve

I've seen him play practically every game of his college career. So I have a decent understanding of his talent.

Negatives: Plays in a heavy run offense, so most of his throws are off play action, which result in fairly easy completions. On seam routes and crossing routes, he doesn't always hit the receiver in stride, and the ball can sail on him sometimes. Not the fastest release in the world, could perfect his mechanics slightly. Some say he utilizes the check-down too much, but I've seen him pass up the open receiver in the flat and throw the ball deep instead, so it goes both ways. Also, a lot of people dislike the fact that he plays behind a decent O-Line, so some question whether he would fold under pressure, but I think the USC game cleared up some of those antics, he responded very well against the pressure, especially after throwing a pick 6 late in the game.

Positives: He's very accurate, typically hits his WR's between the numbers, and on long throws, he puts enough touch on the ball for the WR to make a play on it, but not always a perfect throw. His understanding of his offense vs. defense is by far the best in the country. He calls practically all of his own plays, and most of the calls are made at the LOS after he reads the defense, very Peyton Manning like, and his decision making is uncanny. Has great touch on the ball, I've seen him throw the endzone fade several times, and they are always on target. He's pro ready, you wouldn't have to change anything about him to transition to the NFL, and he still has amazing upside. He's a good runner, and can escape the pocket to make a play, but he will always look downfield for an open receiver before he takes off.

 

[Russ Smith]

I don't either. I've only seen him play a half dozen times and he's been outstanding every time I've watched. But, despite my inability to attribute that comment, I know I've either heard or read that said. Maybe I'll google Luck reviews and see if I can find some negatives that match what I've come across.

Steve
-----------------Edit:
I searched for negative reviews on Luck and didn't find very much. Nfldraftbible had a very positive writeup but also mentioned several of the concerns that I brought up. Also, Tom Melton had this to say about Luck: Negatives: There aren’t a lot of things wrong with Luck’s game, but there are some things that I noticed and had problems with when watching him. First, he doesn’t have the best pocket poise. Especially off of play action he tends to panic and start to scramble if his first or second read isn’t there, and he will throw off balance a lot in these situations. Whether it is off of his back foot or while he is scrambling (even across his body occasionally) he will throw passes without setting his feet which I don’t like to see. He needs to work on his pocket presence if possible. I don’t know if he has a problem feeling the pressure, but he just needs to learn to step up into the pocket and buy time by side-stepping the rush at times instead of pulling the ball down to scramble. He also needs to be coached to not throw off of his back foot as often as he does. He also doesn’t have very good arm strength. He has great zip on passes to about 20-25 yards, but when he tries to throw a deep ball he will often be encountered with underthrown passes that have a lot of air under them. That is something he needs to work on.

So again, I'll stand by what I've said. He's a tremendous prospect but there are concerns about his game and whether he'll be as successful in the NFL as many have predicted. I don't think I've seen anyone predicting failure for the guy but not everyone is convinced he'll be the next Peyton Manning.

The comment about the deep balls I buy I said it too he underthrows some with too much air. I don't know if it's arm or not, sometimes I think he just tries to make it too perfect. In the NFL with real speed Wr's he'll have to learn to get it out in front.

As that guy on ESPN says there's a play from just a couple of weeks ago where he threw the ball 55 yards on the fly without planting he was moving to his right when he threw it.

he does throw off his backfoot too much I've pointed that out before too. He gets away with it now.

It's just really hard for me to judge arm strength when the whole design of the offense is such that he almost never has to make those throws. Maybe he can, maybe he can't.

I googled and found a quote from his HS coach that was interesting. To paraphrase he said scouts would watch us practice and then ask me about his arm strength. He said I told them all the same thing the thing with this kid is he changes speeds on the ball depending on who he's throwing to. He knows who can catch a rocket and who can't, and he never throws the ball harder than he needs to do to get it there.

I think part of the thing with Luck is everyone talks about other things like his ability to run, or how competitive he is.

It'll be interesting to watch I did see where Archie Manning said he thinks Luck is going to be a great one and says he came to their camp when was highschool and you could just see he stood out above everyone else there.

He's had 2 sons succeed in the NFL and of course played himself so similar perspective to Phill Simms.

I'd still take the kid but I can't say he's perfect.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The comment about the deep balls I buy I said it too he underthrows some with too much air. I don't know if it's arm or not, sometimes I think he just tries to make it too perfect. In the NFL with real speed Wr's he'll have to learn to get it out in front.

As that guy on ESPN says there's a play from just a couple of weeks ago where he threw the ball 55 yards on the fly without planting he was moving to his right when he threw it.

he does throw off his backfoot too much I've pointed that out before too. He gets away with it now.

It's just really hard for me to judge arm strength when the whole design of the offense is such that he almost never has to make those throws. Maybe he can, maybe he can't.

I googled and found a quote from his HS coach that was interesting. To paraphrase he said scouts would watch us practice and then ask me about his arm strength. He said I told them all the same thing the thing with this kid is he changes speeds on the ball depending on who he's throwing to. He knows who can catch a rocket and who can't, and he never throws the ball harder than he needs to do to get it there.

I think part of the thing with Luck is everyone talks about other things like his ability to run, or how competitive he is.

It'll be interesting to watch I did see where Archie Manning said he thinks Luck is going to be a great one and says he came to their camp when was highschool and you could just see he stood out above everyone else there.

He's had 2 sons succeed in the NFL and of course played himself so similar perspective to Phill Simms.

I'd still take the kid but I can't say he's perfect.

I would too, in a heartbeat. There are no such things when it comes to the NFL but you just have to like his chances.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

I guess if you disqualify everyone that says otherwise, you'll find nothing but warm and happy Luck comments. However, between the ESPNU channel and ESPNEWS channel I've heard more than a few concerns about him - Phil Simms was just the most recent.

the idea that i'm excluding everyone who doesn't say good things about is crap. again, Phil Simms concentrates on NFL... he doesn't do college, he's not a draft guru. His job pertains to watching nfl games and players and commenting on that so when he starts talking about something outside of his expertise, I take it with a bag of salt. I listen to the people who eat, sleep and drink college football because they are the ones who actually watch every game and have been doing it for years.

and so far, from those people i've yet to hear pretty much anything you're saying. and if you could provide links or names to the ESPNEWS people you hear saying, maybe i could see what you're talking about, but since you haven't and just threw out an NFL analyst, well, i'll continue to say I've yet to see anyone who covers college football or the draft talk about him the way you claim some people do.

I remember one scout/analyst talking about the fact that Luck has extra motion in his delivery which results in a loss of zip on the ball. Also, he has a tendency to throw sidearm and despite his ability to read defenses he still locks on to his first receiver too often. Sorry, I don't remember names but I'm sure I'm not the only person that has heard these comments. He's still far and away the most promising QB prospect in quite some time but I (and others) disagree with the suggestion that he's risk free.

Steve

well, i haven't heard that... seriously though, trying to argue that just because you can find someone on the internet to question Luck means he's not an all-time QB prospect is a pretty dubious claim. there's always going to be a couple naysayers about ANYTHING but the fact that he's so universally lauded at such an incredible high level just makes trying to argue otherwise look incredibly stupid IMO.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I agree. The "can't miss" and "greatest prospect ever" and "greatest college player of all time" etc. that some of us have reacted to are statements offered on this board by fans.

Steve

again, those comment up above have been offered by PEOPLE IN THE BUSINESS as well. You're making it out to be like only Cardinals fans are saying this.

 

[AzStevenCal]

the idea that i'm excluding everyone who doesn't say good things about is crap. again, Phil Simms concentrates on NFL... he doesn't do college, he's not a draft guru. His job pertains to watching nfl games and players and commenting on that so when he starts talking about something outside of his expertise, I take it with a bag of salt. I listen to the people who eat, sleep and drink college football because they are the ones who actually watch every game and have been doing it for years.

My comment came across a bit snide, it wasn't intentional. My wife had just walked in the door with a sausage, cheese, peppers and onions sub with Giardiniera sauce worth killing for. It was either take the time to re-read and re-write my post or eat it while it was hot. I made the right choice.

I do however disagree with removing Phil Simms from the conversation. We are talking about a player that is in college but will soon be in the NFL. I think Simms brings a reasonable amount of knowledge and experience to this conversation and his viewpoint is as legitimate as just about anyone else's IMO. Unless of course you buy into the story that Phil has a score to settle because of the shots people have taken at his kid.

well, i haven't heard that... seriously though, trying to argue that just because you can find someone on the internet to question Luck means he's not an all-time QB prospect is a pretty dubious claim. there's always going to be a couple naysayers about ANYTHING but the fact that he's so universally lauded at such an incredible high level just makes trying to argue otherwise look incredibly stupid IMO.

I think he is one of the all-time great prospects at any position. The last time I heard someone getting as much hype (comparatively) as Luck is would probably have to go back to Herschel Walker. I'm not arguing that he isn't the consensus number one pick or that he isn't one of the most highly regarded picks ever. As I've said before, I'm merely contesting the claim that he's bullet proof and that EVERYONE is projecting greatness. The detractors are a decided minority but they do exist.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

again, those comment up above have been offered by PEOPLE IN THE BUSINESS as well. You're making it out to be like only Cardinals fans are saying this.

Well, I haven't heard it said quite the same way, perhaps you have. I've heard them say he's "perhaps the greatest" and comments such as that but I've not heard a single analyst come out and say what's been said on this board. On this board, we've had the claim that he is "the greatest prospect of all time" and that not only is he a "can't miss prospect" but that "everyone with credibility" agrees. I've only been arguing against those claims, not the ones you and some others have made.

Steve