Thoughts on Player Rankings and The Cardinals' Draft

[Chopper0080]

Um... Steve Breaston? Before him: David Boston?

The "we need a speed WR" shibboleth is one of the more annoying offseason concerns that comes up every year on the board. Who was Pittsburgh's vertical passing weapon?

This is where I like Dorin Dickerson, the TE/H-Back out of Pitt. He has the ability to break the cover-2 scheme that teams put on Fitz by using his 4.4 speed to get behind the dropping linebacker. He is also really tough as he played LB, TE, and some FB in college at Pitt.

 

[Shogun]

Um... Steve Breaston? Before him: David Boston?

The "we need a speed WR" shibboleth is one of the more annoying offseason concerns that comes up every year on the board. Who was Pittsburgh's vertical passing weapon?

Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace....?

But yes, the "speed receiver" talk is tired.

 

[kerouac9]

This is where I like Dorin Dickerson, the TE/H-Back out of Pitt. He has the ability to break the cover-2 scheme that teams put on Fitz by using his 4.4 speed to get behind the dropping linebacker. He is also really tough as he played LB, TE, and some FB in college at Pitt.

Please don't pretend that Dorin Dickerson is a tight end. He's 6'1", 226. He's 10 lbs. heavier than Anquan Boldin, one lb. heavier than Andre Johnson. Four lbs. lighter than Vincent Jackson. He's not a TE in the NFL. He's certainly not a fullback in the NFL. He's a wide receiver. He couldn't block me on the pass rush from the DE position.

Dallas Clark is twenty-five pounds heavier than Dorin Dickerson, and he barely qualifies as a TE in the NFL. Which of these things is not like the other?

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[Chopper0080]

He is an explosive H-Back who will only be limited by his offensive coordinators imagination. He has experience playing TE & FB, and while he may not project as a traditional line up TE or FB, he has the experience and athleticism to be a matchup nightmare. Put him out in a tight slot off-tackle in a set with Wells, Becht, Breaston, & Fitz, and he presents problems. He can out run a LB if the teams rolls a base package, and he can seal a nickel corner or linebacker if they run a nickel. Either way, the personnel package for the defense is very tough to plan.

 

[Duckjake]

kerouac9;2196983]Please don't pretend that Dorin Dickerson is a tight end. He's 6'1", 226. He's 10 lbs. heavier than Anquan Boldin, one lb. heavier than Andre Johnson. Four lbs. lighter than Vincent Jackson. He's not a TE in the NFL. He's certainly not a fullback in the NFL. He's a wide receiver. He couldn't block me on the pass rush from the DE position.

Dallas Clark is twenty-five pounds heavier than Dorin Dickerson, and he barely qualifies as a TE in the NFL. Which of these things is not like the other?

Is Dickerson related to Levar Fisher?

 

[kerouac9]

He is an explosive H-Back who will only be limited by his offensive coordinators imagination. He has experience playing TE & FB, and while he may not project as a traditional line up TE or FB, he has the experience and athleticism to be a matchup nightmare. Put him out in a tight slot off-tackle in a set with Wells, Becht, Breaston, & Fitz, and he presents problems. He can out run a LB if the teams rolls a base package, and he can seal a nickel corner or linebacker if they run a nickel. Either way, the personnel package for the defense is very tough to plan.

Chris Cooley is an H-Back. He only outweighs Dickerson by 25 lbs. Dickerson's a WR in the NFL. Just because you claim that he can block LBs who are 20-30 lbs. heavier than he is, and DEs who will be 50 lbs more more larger, doesn't mean it's true.

 

[slinslin]

If the Cards want a deep threat/ punt returner why take Taylor Price in the 2nd when you can get Jacoby Ford in the 3rd?

A 2nd rounder for a #4 WR? Ford is faster than Price anyway I think.

 

[Jay Cardinal]

Mitch I agree with much of your logic, however I would pick TCU's Jerry Hughes or Sean Weatherspoon from Missouri. I think Hughes will be able to get after the passer in the pros and I think Weatherspoon looks like a poor man's Patrick Willis.

I don't think the Cards should try Branch back at NT. He got pushed around and lost a lot of confidence there. Alan puts a heavy pass rush on as a DE, that is where I would leave him. Rotate him with Campbell and Dockett.

In rounds 2-7 I would be looking for at least one cornerback, 1-2 LB's (depending on FA), an interior DL, possibly a speed/return guy at WR, O-line talent that falls into value territory on draft day.

 

[Cardiac]

I know we probably need a TE more than we need a WR but it seems like forever since the Cards had a serious deep threat at WR. Mel Gray? Rob Moore? It would be interesting to see what a legit burner at WR would do for our O especially rushing the ball.

Um... Steve Breaston? Before him: David Boston?

The "we need a speed WR" shibboleth is one of the more annoying offseason concerns that comes up every year on the board. Who was Pittsburgh's vertical passing weapon?

HELLOOOOOOOOOO Roy Green!!!!!!!!! Fastest Cards WR ever.

I also don't think wanting or talking about a speed WR is shibboleth (whatever that means). Speed is a difference maker in the NFL. I'm not saying that you draft purely on speed (that's Al Davis) but every team in the league is looking for more speed. It's why they measure players 40 yd dash times.

 

[Shane]

It's why they measure players 40 yd dash times.

Which is the most completely asinine test of the whole combine. There is track speed and game speed. To many football players that play way faster than they are clocked. Way to many more that play way slower than there 40 time would lead you to believe.

 

[Cardiac]

Which is the most completely asinine test of the whole combine. There is track speed and game speed. To many football players that play way faster than they are clocked. Way to many more that play way slower than there 40 time would lead you to believe.

I get what you are saying. Q is the perfect example of putting to much stock in a 40 time. Chris Johnson on the other hand proves that a 40 time should be added to the equation. We can go back and forth giving examples on both sides. The point is that the 40 time needs to be part of the process.

The bigger point is that a speed WR helps any offense. Is Breaston a "burner"? I wouldn't put him in that category but he is fast. I'll go back to Roy Green, he could run himself open due to his speed. It did take him a couple of years running routes after practice to get his shot as a WR. This proves that it takes more then just speed to be an effective WR in the NFL.

 

[Duckjake]

Which is the most completely asinine test of the whole combine. There is track speed and game speed. To many football players that play way faster than they are clocked. Way to many more that play way slower than there 40 time would lead you to believe.

I agree.

The only way I would care about a 40 time is if I were looking for gunners for my punt coverage team. I'd want to put guys in full pads and see how far they can get off the snap in 2 seconds. Testing both running backwards and running forwards.

I remember JJ Arrington and discounting his 40 time. The guy could motor-once he got going- but it took him too long, for an NFL RB, to get going.

 

[Shane]

I agree.

The only way I would care about a 40 time is if I were looking for gunners for my punt coverage team. I'd want to put guys in full pads and see how far they can get off the snap in 2 seconds. Testing both running backwards and running forwards.

I remember JJ Arrington and discounting his 40 time. The guy could motor-once he got going- but it took him too long, for an NFL RB, to get going.

Yup. Yet you have the 4.7 guys like Jerry Rice and Q who were just amazing with a football in their hands. Never saw Rice EVER get caught from behind.

 

[Shane]

I get what you are saying. Q is the perfect example of putting to much stock in a 40 time. Chris Johnson on the other hand proves that a 40 time should be added to the equation. We can go back and forth giving examples on both sides. The point is that the 40 time needs to be part of the process.

The bigger point is that a speed WR helps any offense. Is Breaston a "burner"? I wouldn't put him in that category but he is fast. I'll go back to Roy Green, he could run himself open due to his speed. It did take him a couple of years running routes after practice to get his shot as a WR. This proves that it takes more then just speed to be an effective WR in the NFL.

You didnt need a 40 time to know CJ was THAT fast in pads you could see it in college plain as day. JMO.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Yup. Yet you have the 4.7 guys like Jerry Rice and Q who were just amazing with a football in their hands. Never saw Rice EVER get caught from behind.

FYI: It was a myth that Rice was a 4.7 guy. He ran that once, and got saddled with it.

 

[Shane]

FYI: It was a myth that Rice was a 4.7 guy. He ran that once, and got saddled with it.

No its not a myth. It was actually something like 4.68 and thats what he ran. You are what you are.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

No its not a myth. It was actually something like 4.68 and thats what he ran. You are what you are.

The MYTH was that this was his best 40 time. It wasn't.

 

[Shane]

The MYTH was that this was his best 40 time. It wasn't.

Well what his best? Because you get more than one chance at the combine. Either way he wasnt considered a blazer.

 

[Cardiac]

The Cardinals need thicker DEs for the 4 man rush...which is why signing DE/OLB Joey Porter is so important. He would take Bertrand Berry's spot at RDE, and at LDE Clark Haggans was solid, but I think it would be wise for the Cardinals to use the #26 pick on a thick DE/OLB type to play opposite Porter in the 4 man rush. The players that I like best in that role: Brandon Graham (6-2, 270, Michigan), Carlos Dunlap (6-6, 280, Florida), Everson Griffen (6-3, 265, USC), Kao Misi (6-3, 263, Utah) and Jerry Hughes (6-3, 257, TCU)...in that order.

Mitch,
I almost didn't read this post once I saw you were using the ratings from that site. When I saw that others were responding I decided to review your post (I always do anyways) and see what I was missing. As usual very thought provoking info. My question is why do we need thicker DE's for the 4 man rush? Doesn't that take away one of the attributes of running a 3-4 scheme. If Berry is in the game it's a given (95%) of the time he is going to rush the passer. With a 3-4 you don't know which side the pass rush is coming from and how many.

I think Berry and Chike were kept because we were transitioning to the 3-4 and both players have pass rush skills. Going forward shouldn't the Cards acquire more true OLB's for depth and competition?

In addtion DD & CC while not pure edge pass rushers they are Fantastic at rushing the passer as 3-4 DE's, maybe the best in the league. Branch is also very good as a 3-4 DE pass rusher.

Since teams only have 53 roster slots and 45 (IIRC) on game day why would you add another "position" to the squad. NT, 3-4 DE, thicker DE, OLB, WILB, SILB. Now you have 6 positions in the front 7 of the D instead of 5 positions.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Well what his best? Because you get more than one chance at the combine. Either way he wasnt considered a blazer.

4.5 in private sessions.

 

[Mitch]

The Cardinals need thicker DEs for the 4 man rush...which is why signing DE/OLB Joey Porter is so important. He would take Bertrand Berry's spot at RDE, and at LDE Clark Haggans was solid, but I think it would be wise for the Cardinals to use the #26 pick on a thick DE/OLB type to play opposite Porter in the 4 man rush. The players that I like best in that role: Brandon Graham (6-2, 270, Michigan), Carlos Dunlap (6-6, 280, Florida), Everson Griffen (6-3, 265, USC), Kao Misi (6-3, 263, Utah) and Jerry Hughes (6-3, 257, TCU)...in that order.

Mitch,
I almost didn't read this post once I saw you were using the ratings from that site. When I saw that others were responding I decided to review your post (I always do anyways) and see what I was missing. As usual very thought provoking info. My question is why do we need thicker DE's for the 4 man rush? Doesn't that take away one of the attributes of running a 3-4 scheme. If Berry is in the game it's a given (95%) of the time he is going to rush the passer. With a 3-4 you don't know which side the pass rush is coming from and how many.

I think Berry and Chike were kept because we were transitioning to the 3-4 and both players have pass rush skills. Going forward shouldn't the Cards acquire more true OLB's for depth and competition?

In addtion DD & CC while not pure edge pass rushers they are Fantastic at rushing the passer as 3-4 DE's, maybe the best in the league. Branch is also very good as a 3-4 DE pass rusher.

Since teams only have 53 roster slots and 45 (IIRC) on game day why would you add another "position" to the squad. NT, 3-4 DE, thicker DE, OLB, WILB, SILB. Now you have 6 positions in the front 7 of the D instead of 5 positions.

Let me put it this way, Cardiac. The Steelers are fortunate in that their starting OLBers (Harrison and Woodley) can both rush the passer with a hand down (3 point stance) at the DE spots in the 4 man line in passing situations.

My point is this: as of right now our two DEs in the 4 man rush are Clark Haggans and Cody Brown. Haggans was decent rushing the passer last year (5 sacks, I think), but at his age he can't be an every down defensive player every series. We don't know at all what we have in Cody Brown as of yet, nor do we know whether Will Davis, Mark Washington and Stevie Baggs can be effective with their hands down at DE...I think they all can be effective rushing the edge from the outside of the 3-4...because they have numbers working in their favor...and they can rely more on quickness than strength.

Today you need DEs for the 4 man rush who are quick and strong. Hybrid 3-4 OLBers like the ones the Cardinals have are quick generally, but they are not typically thick and thus lack the preferred strength...and if they don't get a step on the edge they get engulfed by the tackles...and even if they do get a step, because they lack strength they get ridden far wide of the pocket.

This is why Bertrand Berry had such a valuable role as the 4 man line RDE. He used a combination of quickness and strength to get to the QB.

Here's my thought...the answer as I see it would be to sign Joey Porter, who fits the mold. He can rush the passer anytime anywhere. Then, if the Cardinals could get a thicker DE type like Brandon Graham or Carlos Dunlap to line up opposite of Porter, we are looking at what could be a formidible 4 man rush, one that we haven't had in quite some time...which is a huge reason why our pass defense has been awful.

 

[WildBB]

Today you need DEs for the 4 man rush who are quick and strong. Hybrid 3-4 OLBers like the ones the Cardinals have are quick generally, but they are not typically thick and thus lack the preferred strength...and if they don't get a step on the edge they get engulfed by the tackles...and even if they do get a step, because they lack strength they get ridden far wide of the pocket.

This is why Bertrand Berry had such a valuable role as the 4 man line RDE. He used a combination of quickness and strength to get to the QB.

Here's my thought...the answer as I see it would be to sign Joey Porter, who fits the mold. He can rush the passer anytime anywhere. Then, if the Cardinals could get a thicker DE type like Brandon Graham or Carlos Dunlap to line up opposite of Porter, we are looking at what could be a formidible 4 man rush, one that we haven't had in quite some time...which is a huge reason why our pass defense has been awful.

Can't argue with the reasoning about replacing Berry. However , I do think that the team wants to commit more to using the 3-4 alignment on all the downs. With that alignment you have Dockett and Campbell as the ends flanked by two OLB;s.

Say Haggins and Brown/Davis or (?). I do think think that they will continue in that direction. More of the 3-4 and you may be pleasantly surprised at the results.

Depending who's there when we pick, it's an outside possibility that some like Kindle could fall and they''d target him. Otherwise Brown was pretty good at getting at QB;s at UCONN. We may take one later too.

 

[JeffGollin]

Traps & Fallacies...

First, to base a draft on a complex rating of our own players would put us back on the "drafting for need" track that didn't serve us particularly well when we used it.

Secondly, the player ratings are arbitrary (i.e. "what some guy or bunch of guys said").

Thirdly, show me ten NFL teams, and I'll show you ten different draft boards - because they have differing priorities, position/system-fits & criteria, MO's and rating-weights.

Finally, it's still too early to assemble a meaningful board. Even though the Combine is over, there's still considerable info being gathered about various prospects (especially those who skipped all or part of the Combine). From a fan's standpoint, some of the missing info awaits the outcome of various Pro Days. Other info simply has been late getting posted by the various draft sites and publications.

I'm very comfortable with a system that - by draft day - arrives at a sensible rating hierarchy of prospects and then drafts the top guy on the board with each pick (with some flexibility given when a few players are rated closely together). It's simple, and for the past few years, seems to have worked nicely for us. (Of course, the difficulty for us fans in doing this is that it's nearly impossible for anyone to scope out which high-value prospects will be still available when we pick - and we all like to prognosticate and do mocks).

The danger in overcomplicating things is that you can think yourself into such knots that you arrive with decisions that run counter to your original objectives and you can't figure out how you got there.

 

[kerouac9]

Let me put it this way, Cardiac. The Steelers are fortunate in that their starting OLBers (Harrison and Woodley) can both rush the passer with a hand down (3 point stance) at the DE spots in the 4 man line in passing situations.

My point is this: as of right now our two DEs in the 4 man rush are Clark Haggans and Cody Brown. Haggans was decent rushing the passer last year (5 sacks, I think), but at his age he can't be an every down defensive player every series. We don't know at all what we have in Cody Brown as of yet, nor do we know whether Will Davis, Mark Washington and Stevie Baggs can be effective with their hands down at DE...I think they all can be effective rushing the edge from the outside of the 3-4...because they have numbers working in their favor...and they can rely more on quickness than strength.

Today you need DEs for the 4 man rush who are quick and strong. Hybrid 3-4 OLBers like the ones the Cardinals have are quick generally, but they are not typically thick and thus lack the preferred strength...and if they don't get a step on the edge they get engulfed by the tackles...and even if they do get a step, because they lack strength they get ridden far wide of the pocket.

This is why Bertrand Berry had such a valuable role as the 4 man line RDE. He used a combination of quickness and strength to get to the QB.

Here's my thought...the answer as I see it would be to sign Joey Porter, who fits the mold. He can rush the passer anytime anywhere. Then, if the Cardinals could get a thicker DE type like Brandon Graham or Carlos Dunlap to line up opposite of Porter, we are looking at what could be a formidible 4 man rush, one that we haven't had in quite some time...which is a huge reason why our pass defense has been awful.

But you know that Cody Brown can rush the passer from a three-point stance because that's what he did at UConn that got him drafted in the second round. Same thing with Will Davis. We KNOW those guys can rush from the three-point because that's what they did in college. I assume the same is true of Baggs.

Also, most 3-4 teams keep three down linemen on the field in nickel situations. There's no objective advantage to having four down linemen in passing downs. It's probably better to have as many people standing up as possible (Which is one of Belicheck's formations with only ONE down lineman).

3-4 OLBs aren't scouted on "minus pass rush ability" and that's why they're OLBs and not DEs. Generally your 3-4 OLBs are exceptional pass rushers but aren't stout enough against the run (because they're too small/light). That's why they can't be every-down DEs.

That's why you need big DEs and NTs in the 3-4 defense: To occupy blockers so that your OLBs can flow to the ball/set the edge.

 

[Mitch]

But you know that Cody Brown can rush the passer from a three-point stance because that's what he did at UConn that got him drafted in the second round. Same thing with Will Davis. We KNOW those guys can rush from the three-point because that's what they did in college. I assume the same is true of Baggs.

Also, most 3-4 teams keep three down linemen on the field in nickel situations. There's no objective advantage to having four down linemen in passing downs. It's probably better to have as many people standing up as possible (Which is one of Belicheck's formations with only ONE down lineman).

3-4 OLBs aren't scouted on "minus pass rush ability" and that's why they're OLBs and not DEs. Generally your 3-4 OLBs are exceptional pass rushers but aren't stout enough against the run (because they're too small/light). That's why they can't be every-down DEs.

That's why you need big DEs and NTs in the 3-4 defense: To occupy blockers so that your OLBs can flow to the ball/set the edge.

Just because they did so in college, doesn't mean they will right away in the pros. In the pre-season before he got hurt, Cody Brown was not a factor in the 4 man rush. He was getting stopped in his tracks play after play. Now, the hope is he will become a factor, but at this point we do not know. Will Davis got his couple of good QB pressures this year from a two point stance from the far edge out of the base 3-4. He really didn't get many snaps and almost never had any out of a htree point stance. And Stevie Baggs hasn't played a down in the NFL yet.

We are all hopeful they will develop...same with Mark Washington...but to head into the season without a more proven rusher like Joey Porter creates far too many uncertainties...and I guarantee you that Brandon Graham and Carlos Dunlap are stronger options than what we have on the other side...they have the right blend of quickness AND strength.