Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
Top 20 2016 Unrestricted free agents
What kind of chance and interest do the Cardinals have in signing any of these players? I offer my thoughts. Would like to hear yours.
1. Von Miller, Denver Broncos linebacker: Miller has been one of the best overall defensive players in the league since he was drafted. He's as strong stopping the run as he is coming off the edge. There's no way the Broncos will let him hit the market.
No chance. The Broncos will f-tag him and do all they can to re-sign him.
2. Josh Norman, Carolina Panthers cornerback: There's nothing like having your breakout season in a contract year. Norman has been the best cornerback in football this year and is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He's not going anywhere.
No chance. He's going to make top dollars---the question is---how much does he benefit from being in the Panther's defensive system?
3. Muhammad Wilkerson, New York Jets defensive end: Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams were splashy draft pick additions, but Wilkerson is still the best defensive lineman on the Jets. New York has played hardball in negotiations thus far with Wilkerson, but the franchise tag has to be an option here.
No chance. The Jets are not going to let him get scooped up by Rex Ryan.
4. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears wide receiver: He might not be the most refined receiver in the league, but few are better at catching deep balls. He's fourth in the league in receiving yards-per-game and topped 1,400 yards in 2013.
No chance.
5. Cordy Glenn, Buffalo Bills offensive tackle: True franchise left tackles are awfully hard to find. That's why he's a strong candidate for the franchise tag.
No chance.
6. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants defensive end: He's still disruptive despite playing with a club over his injured hand. There has to be a chance JPP will only get better as he learns how best to play with his disadvantage, and the ceiling here is tremendous. Still, he has struggled to wrap up opposing running backs. Can he finish plays?
Now JPP is an interesting case---I definitely could see Steve Keim making a play to sign him, if Keim is convinced that JPP's hand issue is not going to prevent him from dominating. The Giants might use the f-tag on him, but will likely be willing to listen to offers, thus there is a chance, albeit a less than 50/50 one.
7. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs safety: Berry has come back from his cancer scare better than ever. Strong safety play is hard to find and Berry has the versatility teams are looking for.
No chance.
8. Malik Jackson, Broncos defensive tackle: Like Norman, he's having a career year in a contract season. It's hard to find interior pass rushers like Jackson just entering his prime.
I think this guy is going to be Steve Keim's #1 target going into FA. Jackson is exactly the kind of athletic, disruptive interior rusher the Cardinals want. A lot will depend on what Keim plans to do with Calais Campbell---there is no question that BA wasn't too happy with Campbell down the stretch and now Campbell's looming $15M 2016 cap figure needs to be addressed. I think it is possible that if Campbell isn't willing to agree to a reasonable extension, then Keim may try to trade him and replace him with Jackson. If Keim trades Campbell---which would probably hinge on a team signing him to a long-term deal---he has to eat $5.5M in dead money versus the cap, but he saves Campbell's $9.5M base salary, which he could use toward signing Jackson.
9. Olivier Vernon, Dolphins defensive end: The other Dolphins pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake has dialed up a lot of pressure over the last three years, even if he doesn't always finish the play with a sack. He's clearly an above average pass rush starter, which is going to make him a very rich man. Expectations are he'll leave Miami, who can only afford to pay so much on their defensive line.
No chance. The Dolphins will tag him. Cameron Wake is coming off an Achilles injury and it is possible that they might seek to trade or release Wake---but they do not want to lose Vernon. They will do everything they can to keep him.
10. Doug Martin, Buccaneers running back: He won't make the same money as the guys listed above (and below) him here because of the position he plays, but no one has helped their value more this season. Martin has gone from an afterthought to the No. 2 rusher in the NFL.
No chance.
11. Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks linebacker: He isn't a defense-changing talent, but he's also better than you think. Irvin is a quality versatile starter.
I think Irvin---if he checks out well with Keim and his scouts---will be the #2 target. They like the way they were able to sign Mike Iupati away from the 49ers and signing Irvin to start at ROLB (his most natural position) would be a coup.
12. Russell Okung, Seahawks tackle: Even if Okung is only an average starter, he's going to get paid in this market. If he makes it there.
Not a chance.
13. Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers safety: Weddle has a skill set that tons of teams are looking for to shore up the back end of their defenses. His age (30) works against him, but few safeties have been better over the last five years.
No chance. The plan is to sign Tyrann Mathieu to a long-term contract.
14. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback: This season has not helped Bradford's value, yet there would be no shortage of teams willing to give Bradford a try if the Eagles don't want to re-sign him.
No chance.
15. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins quarterback: Replacement level starting quarterbacks are worth plenty, and that appears to be Cousins' floor. At worst, he's a poor man's Andy Dalton with room to improve over time. He has more value to the Redskins than anyone else.
No chance.
16. Matt Forte, Bears running back: One of the league's most complete backs has not shown many signs of age yet. Perhaps he should be paired with another quality option, but there's no doubt he could upgrade many backfields.
No chance.
17. Andre Smith, Cincinnati Bengals right tackle: How will Smith react to getting paid big bucks (again)? While his career has included some ups and downs, Smith has often been a top-shelf starter.
No chance.
18. Danny Trevathan, Broncos linebacker: Trevathan is a three-down linebacker entering his prime that can hold up in pass coverage. We're big fans of his skill set and he's just the type of above-average starter that gets paid like a superstar in free agency.
While I could see Steve Keim having an interest in Trevathan---I think Keim would prefer to draft another athletic ILB.
19. Janoris Jenkins, St. Louis Rams cornerback: He's steadily improved each season in the league and now is a playmaking starter.
Steve Keim has said he wants to add a CB with size. Jenkins is on the average side (5-10, 190), but he thrives at RCB which makes him intriguing. The Rams' other UFA CB Trumaine Johnson (6-2, 208) is, in my opinion, Steve Keim's #3 target. The Rams may not be able to sign both Jenkins and Johnson---word is that they might actually favor Johnson, so if the Rams sign Johnson, then Keim's interest may shift to Jenkins.
20. Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterback: It's hard to imagine John Elway letting his promising young starter hit the market, although this will be a tricky contract to pull off.
No chance.
Just missed: Derrick Johnson, Chris Ivory, Kelvin Beachum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Haloti Ngata, Lamar Miller, Prince Amukamara, Anquan Boldin.
Of these "just missed" players, I think Steve Keim may be very interested in RB Lamar Miller because he is such a great fit in BA's system and he and starter David Johnson could share the load without the offense missing a beat.
Other Potential Targets:
OLB Nick Perry (GB)
OLB Mike Neal (GB)
OLB Tamba Hali (KC)
LB/S Mark Barron (LAR)
G/T Michael Harris (MIN)
TE Dwayne Allen (IND)
TE Coby Fleener (IND)
What kind of chance and interest do the Cardinals have in signing any of these players? I offer my thoughts. Would like to hear yours.
1. Von Miller, Denver Broncos linebacker: Miller has been one of the best overall defensive players in the league since he was drafted. He's as strong stopping the run as he is coming off the edge. There's no way the Broncos will let him hit the market.
No chance. The Broncos will f-tag him and do all they can to re-sign him.
2. Josh Norman, Carolina Panthers cornerback: There's nothing like having your breakout season in a contract year. Norman has been the best cornerback in football this year and is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He's not going anywhere.
No chance. He's going to make top dollars---the question is---how much does he benefit from being in the Panther's defensive system?
3. Muhammad Wilkerson, New York Jets defensive end: Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams were splashy draft pick additions, but Wilkerson is still the best defensive lineman on the Jets. New York has played hardball in negotiations thus far with Wilkerson, but the franchise tag has to be an option here.
No chance. The Jets are not going to let him get scooped up by Rex Ryan.
4. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears wide receiver: He might not be the most refined receiver in the league, but few are better at catching deep balls. He's fourth in the league in receiving yards-per-game and topped 1,400 yards in 2013.
No chance.
5. Cordy Glenn, Buffalo Bills offensive tackle: True franchise left tackles are awfully hard to find. That's why he's a strong candidate for the franchise tag.
No chance.
6. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants defensive end: He's still disruptive despite playing with a club over his injured hand. There has to be a chance JPP will only get better as he learns how best to play with his disadvantage, and the ceiling here is tremendous. Still, he has struggled to wrap up opposing running backs. Can he finish plays?
Now JPP is an interesting case---I definitely could see Steve Keim making a play to sign him, if Keim is convinced that JPP's hand issue is not going to prevent him from dominating. The Giants might use the f-tag on him, but will likely be willing to listen to offers, thus there is a chance, albeit a less than 50/50 one.
7. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs safety: Berry has come back from his cancer scare better than ever. Strong safety play is hard to find and Berry has the versatility teams are looking for.
No chance.
8. Malik Jackson, Broncos defensive tackle: Like Norman, he's having a career year in a contract season. It's hard to find interior pass rushers like Jackson just entering his prime.
I think this guy is going to be Steve Keim's #1 target going into FA. Jackson is exactly the kind of athletic, disruptive interior rusher the Cardinals want. A lot will depend on what Keim plans to do with Calais Campbell---there is no question that BA wasn't too happy with Campbell down the stretch and now Campbell's looming $15M 2016 cap figure needs to be addressed. I think it is possible that if Campbell isn't willing to agree to a reasonable extension, then Keim may try to trade him and replace him with Jackson. If Keim trades Campbell---which would probably hinge on a team signing him to a long-term deal---he has to eat $5.5M in dead money versus the cap, but he saves Campbell's $9.5M base salary, which he could use toward signing Jackson.
9. Olivier Vernon, Dolphins defensive end: The other Dolphins pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake has dialed up a lot of pressure over the last three years, even if he doesn't always finish the play with a sack. He's clearly an above average pass rush starter, which is going to make him a very rich man. Expectations are he'll leave Miami, who can only afford to pay so much on their defensive line.
No chance. The Dolphins will tag him. Cameron Wake is coming off an Achilles injury and it is possible that they might seek to trade or release Wake---but they do not want to lose Vernon. They will do everything they can to keep him.
10. Doug Martin, Buccaneers running back: He won't make the same money as the guys listed above (and below) him here because of the position he plays, but no one has helped their value more this season. Martin has gone from an afterthought to the No. 2 rusher in the NFL.
No chance.
11. Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks linebacker: He isn't a defense-changing talent, but he's also better than you think. Irvin is a quality versatile starter.
I think Irvin---if he checks out well with Keim and his scouts---will be the #2 target. They like the way they were able to sign Mike Iupati away from the 49ers and signing Irvin to start at ROLB (his most natural position) would be a coup.
12. Russell Okung, Seahawks tackle: Even if Okung is only an average starter, he's going to get paid in this market. If he makes it there.
Not a chance.
13. Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers safety: Weddle has a skill set that tons of teams are looking for to shore up the back end of their defenses. His age (30) works against him, but few safeties have been better over the last five years.
No chance. The plan is to sign Tyrann Mathieu to a long-term contract.
14. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback: This season has not helped Bradford's value, yet there would be no shortage of teams willing to give Bradford a try if the Eagles don't want to re-sign him.
No chance.
15. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins quarterback: Replacement level starting quarterbacks are worth plenty, and that appears to be Cousins' floor. At worst, he's a poor man's Andy Dalton with room to improve over time. He has more value to the Redskins than anyone else.
No chance.
16. Matt Forte, Bears running back: One of the league's most complete backs has not shown many signs of age yet. Perhaps he should be paired with another quality option, but there's no doubt he could upgrade many backfields.
No chance.
17. Andre Smith, Cincinnati Bengals right tackle: How will Smith react to getting paid big bucks (again)? While his career has included some ups and downs, Smith has often been a top-shelf starter.
No chance.
18. Danny Trevathan, Broncos linebacker: Trevathan is a three-down linebacker entering his prime that can hold up in pass coverage. We're big fans of his skill set and he's just the type of above-average starter that gets paid like a superstar in free agency.
While I could see Steve Keim having an interest in Trevathan---I think Keim would prefer to draft another athletic ILB.
19. Janoris Jenkins, St. Louis Rams cornerback: He's steadily improved each season in the league and now is a playmaking starter.
Steve Keim has said he wants to add a CB with size. Jenkins is on the average side (5-10, 190), but he thrives at RCB which makes him intriguing. The Rams' other UFA CB Trumaine Johnson (6-2, 208) is, in my opinion, Steve Keim's #3 target. The Rams may not be able to sign both Jenkins and Johnson---word is that they might actually favor Johnson, so if the Rams sign Johnson, then Keim's interest may shift to Jenkins.
20. Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterback: It's hard to imagine John Elway letting his promising young starter hit the market, although this will be a tricky contract to pull off.
No chance.
Just missed: Derrick Johnson, Chris Ivory, Kelvin Beachum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Haloti Ngata, Lamar Miller, Prince Amukamara, Anquan Boldin.
Of these "just missed" players, I think Steve Keim may be very interested in RB Lamar Miller because he is such a great fit in BA's system and he and starter David Johnson could share the load without the offense missing a beat.
Other Potential Targets:
OLB Nick Perry (GB)
OLB Mike Neal (GB)
OLB Tamba Hali (KC)
LB/S Mark Barron (LAR)
G/T Michael Harris (MIN)
TE Dwayne Allen (IND)
TE Coby Fleener (IND)
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