Top of the Draft Picks 1-7: Prediction

[Mitch]

1. Chiefs: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama.

They will re-sign LT Brandon Albert, which means they won't be drafting LT Luke Joeckel. As they ponder the various options, the thought of pairing Albert with Warmack in order to open bigger holes for RB Jamaal Charles has Andy Reid foaming and flailing on the war-room rug. Warmack is the best player in the draft, so the pundits will be effusive in their praise of the pick.

2. Jaguars: Demontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M.

Moore is perfect fit for their 43 defense. He defends the run with tenacity and he is adept at pressuring the QB. He will be Casey Bradley's version of DE Chris Clemons.

3. Raiders: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.

Tommy Kelly is getting older and Richard Seymour is on the way out. Lotulelei is the perfect fit at the right spot.

4. Eagles: Tavon Austin, WR/RB, West Virginia.

Talk about perfect fits. Austin is taylor-made for Chip Kelly's offense, which is all about exploiting mismatches with electric, speed players.

5. Lions: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.

How about replacing Kyle Vanden Bosch with a younger, more athletic and quicker version.

6. Browns: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia.

Ray Horton's conversion to the 34 defense just got a great deal easier and more exciting as Jones will wreak havoc on the backside edge from the ROLB position.

7. Cardinals: Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M.

The Cardinals are surprised to see him available---the only two players rated ahead of Joeckel on their draft board (Warmack and Jones) are now off the board, so Joeckel is the pick. Steve Keim will see if he can get trade value for Levi Brown. If not, Brown will be kicked inside to compete for one of the guard spots and battle Bobby Massie for the RT job.

 

[az jam]

Switch pick 1 with pick 7 and you will probably be right. An OG will not be the first pick in the draft. Joeckel is the best player in the draft, you don't pass on him even if you have a good LT. The Cards like Warmack and I hope he is there and they take him when they pick.

 

[BW52]

I question the Eagles picking a 5`9 WR at #4 when they have worst secondary in the league and rumors say the defense is going to a 3-4 and they have no anchor DT .

 

[Mitch]

Switch pick 1 with pick 7 and you will probably be right. An OG will not be the first pick in the draft. Joeckel is the best player in the draft, you don't pass on him even if you have a good LT. The Cards like Warmack and I hope he is there and they take him when they pick.

The Chiefs are weak at guard---and many teams will have Warmack rated as the best offensive lineman in the draft.

The condition was that they elect to re-sign LT Brandon Albert. If they do not, then they are targeting Joeckel.

Free agency will have a significant impact on the draft, as it usually does.

In rebuttal to the question about WR Tavon Austin---the Eagles do have a number of holes, but, again, we have to see which players they pick up in free agency.

Tavon Austin could be 5'2" and Chip Kelly could care less. Austin is the most dynamic all-purpose WR in the draft by far, and would become Kelly's version of D'Anthony Thomas (5-9, 175). Kelly will know that Austin will be long gone by the time the Eagles pick again---so he will know that he either takes him early or will have little to no shot.

I think there is a great deal of pressure on Kelly to prove that his system will work in the NFL---and his system will only work if he is able to draft players like Tavon Austin.

What may happen is that Kelly will trade down---but not too far, just far enough to feel assured that he can still select Austin.

 

[BW52]

The Chiefs are weak at guard---and many teams will have Warmack rated as the best offensive lineman in the draft.

The condition was that they elect to re-sign LT Brandon Albert. If they do not, then they are targeting Joeckel.

Free agency will have a significant impact on the draft, as it usually does.

In rebuttal to the question about WR Tavon Austin---the Eagles do have a number of holes, but, again, we have to see which players they pick up in free agency.

Tavon Austin could be 5'2" and Chip Kelly could care less. Austin is the most dynamic all-purpose WR in the draft by far, and would become Kelly's version of D'Anthony Thomas (5-9, 175). Kelly will know that Austin will be long gone by the time the Eagles pick again---so he will know that he either takes him early or will have little to no shot.

I think there is a great deal of pressure on Kelly to prove that his system will work in the NFL---and his system will only work if he is able to draft players like Tavon Austin.

What may happen is that Kelly will trade down---but not too far, just far enough to feel assured that he can still select Austin.

everything i have read says KC wants to keep Albert and won`t go after Geno Smith for QB.So your Warmack to KC could work.

 

[Mitch]

everything i have read says KC wants to keep Albert and won`t go after Geno Smith for QB.So your Warmack to KC could work.

BW---if you were KC, wouldn't you do it? I certainly would---with Jamaal Charles at RB, wow...Albert & Warmack side by side, now that's gaining an advantage on the competition, isn't it?!!!

 

[BW52]

BW---if you were KC, wouldn't you do it? I certainly would---with Jamaal Charles at RB, wow...Albert & Warmack side by side, now that's gaining an advantage on the competition, isn't it?!!!

KC running game would get better and that takes some pressure off the QB.Help 2 things at once.Seems so logical doesn`t it? Wonder why that doesn`t happen more often with the Cards?

 

[Snakester]

I would love for the draft to go this way. Joeckel at 7 would be great.

 

[Mitch]

I would love for the draft to go this way. Joeckel at 7 would be great.

What do think of Levi Brown's potential to play guard, Gary?

 

[juza76]

Joeckel at 1 Wormack at 7 and Dee Milner at 4..eagles secondary is a mess
anyway i like mitch fantasy in this top 7

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Switch pick 1 with pick 7 and you will probably be right. An OG will not be the first pick in the draft. Joeckel is the best player in the draft, you don't pass on him even if you have a good LT. The Cards like Warmack and I hope he is there and they take him when they pick.

Why can't a OG be the first pick?

If he is the best player in the draft and your team needs a guard explain to me how taking a lesser talent is justifiable.

Cause the reasoning of "he is just a guard" carries no weight.

Ask the Cowboys what Larry Allen was worth to their offense and how many rings he helped get.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

BW---if you were KC, wouldn't you do it? I certainly would---with Jamaal Charles at RB, wow...Albert & Warmack side by side, now that's gaining an advantage on the competition, isn't it?!!!

It would be like Larry Allen and Nate Newton. Last I checked that worked pretty well.

 

[PJ1]

Switch pick 1 with pick 7 and you will probably be right. An OG will not be the first pick in the draft. Joeckel is the best player in the draft, you don't pass on him even if you have a good LT. The Cards like Warmack and I hope he is there and they take him when they pick.

Agree with this but would be thrilled either way.

 

[LuckyNumber11]

There is 0 chance that a guard will ever go #1

 

[DoTheDew]

I just can't see it Mitch. If the Chiefs want Warmack that badly they will do anything in their power to drop down 3-5 spots IMO. Also not entirely sold on the Eagles pick. I know he's a perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but part of the reason Kelly back peddled and decided to go to Philly instead of staying at Oregon was because he saw that the personnel was already in place at the skill positions to run his offense there. This would be a luxury pick if I've ever seen one.

More likely that Kelly tries to build that OL IMO. What that team SHOULD do is draft defense, but that seems unlikely for Kelly in his first year.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

There is 0 chance that a guard will ever go #1

Why?

 

[joeshmo]

Why can't a OG be the first pick?

That is a better question to ask the NFL as a whole. In the history of the NFL has a guard ever gone #1 over all. In the history of the NFL how many have even gone in the top 3. The answer is Zero and Four(have to go back to 1974 to find your first one).

.01% chance(no pun intended) that Warmack will be the first.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

That is a better question to ask the NFL as a whole. In the history of the NFL has a guard ever gone #1 over all. In the history of the NFL how many have even gone in the top 3. The answer is Zero and Four(have to go back to 1974 to find your first one).

.01% chance(no pun intended) that Warmack will be the first.

Sweet.

Hopefully 6 out of the 7 teams in the top of the draft are thinking that way.

Last time we drafted the best player in the draft we ended up with PP7

 

[JeffGollin]

Just remember that, for something to happen for the first time, it happened zero percent of the time before.

 

[CardsFan88]

We're not in the era of huge rookie contracts anymore. That really was a big influence on drafting for 20 years.

 

[DoTheDew]

That is a better question to ask the NFL as a whole. In the history of the NFL has a guard ever gone #1 over all. In the history of the NFL how many have even gone in the top 3. The answer is Zero and Four(have to go back to 1974 to find your first one).

.01% chance(no pun intended) that Warmack will be the first.

Agreed the only consideration is that all it takes is one team for history to be broken. I'm sure there were few people who honestly thought the Raiders would take a kicker in the 1st round in 1973, nor in 2001.

That said, I don't think the Chiefs are that kind of a team.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

It would be great if the top 7 went this way but I think Mitch must have been out shoveling snow for a couple hours before posting this and his mind hadn't defrosted yet .

Also, I've read that KC is not really all that interested in re-signing Albert.

 

[wembley88]

If this played out, could we resist not taking Geno Smith?

 

[MWOOD92]

Highly doubt this would ever happen... but I would be one happy fan if it did

 

[JeffGollin]

If this played out, could we resist not taking Geno Smith?

With Smith as well as Warmack, the honest answer is "We don't know."

We don't know what Keim and his scouts are saying about each player nor how Arians, Moore or Bowles view these guys within the context of the scheme and how they feel each prospect might fit in.

To paraphrase Jim Mora: "We may think we know...but we don't.

We can concoct all kinds of scenarios and offer up sage wisdom about how we evaluate specific players. And we can dismiss what others might say as "hogwash", "dummass" or whatever.

But truth be told - the decision-makers are human beings with their own fair share of wild-ass quirks.

Geno Smith? Why not? Warmack? It could happen. Lane Johnson? I don't think so, but you never know - maybe a scout visiting the Oklahoma boonies "saw something." The Star?" Maybe Bowles was really persuasive and made the case for a big guy in the middle.

We're all basing our predictions on "what we know" - which is fine; except that we probably only know 2/3 of what we need to know. Plus the accuracy of our predictions are based on player and Board info that we'll never get to see.

Anything can happen within the Top 7 (if we even remain in the top 7).