Trading up in the Draft for a QB

[GimmedaBall]

It is a 'Win Now' league and even rook QBs are evaluated as to whether they are 'Day One' starters.

Seldom are high-round drafted QBs given that grace period to come in and redshirt for a year . . . or two . . . or three. Some old school teams and HC coaches do that with JG of the Pats (now SF) sitting the bench and learning the pro-game behind a starter. Another success under that approach is Aaron Rogers who sat behind Favre for several years and then stepped in to start his own HOF career. My opinion is that BA and some of his old dude coaches wanted to go that route but SK (with direction from MB) wanted every draft pick directed toward 'Win Now.' BA never got that developmental project or the ability to mold the next Card QB.

One result at looking at some of the reviews of trading up for a QB is the comments around Goff/Rams. The review articles coming out after his first year are pretty negative and belittle the Rams for investing so much to move up and trade for him. Out goes HC Fisher and in comes a young offensive-minded HC and now Goff is seen as worth the trade-up deal. Of course the jury is still out with neither year 1 or year 2 as the definition of Goff. As soon as D coordinators figure a response to the Rams lining up quickly, the HC reading the D and sending in the play to Goff before the headphones go dead, D not having time to adjust---we'll see the Ram Offense come back down to earth. Point is, it is not fair to expect a new QB to not have a learning curve and instead be given a chance to make the adjustment from the college game to the NFL game.

That's the biggest reason to find a vet QB who has learned the NFL game and defensive schemes and to start him while the rook sits if you want to 'Win Now.' That's the philosophy of 'Retool, not a Rebuild.' By all means invest in a developmental QB but don't expect him to be a Day One starter . . . see the struggles of Kizer.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Would really like to get a peek at SK's draft board and to hear the discussions going on around the QBs in this draft.

I can see the Cards sitting at #15 if they have 6 or 7 QBs bunched together in terms of value with the idea that at least one will drop to us. On the other hand, if the guy the Cards really want is within moving up a few picks I can see them making the trade up (before someone like Elway did with Lynch, the Texans with Watson, Reid with Mahomes leapfrogs us for the QB.)

In the past, SK sticks to his board. If we don't get that vet FA to fill the roster spot it is going to be real interesting to see how SK responds---it is not longer just BPA but a whole lot position of need.

It doesn't matter SKs draft board. SK is abysmal at the draft; he's fine in the later rds but picks Rd 1 through 3; he gets cute and has completely whiffed more than hit. Why does anyone have faith he will select a relevant QB. Keim saw something in Logan Thomas lol. Even if the Cards move up; there is about a 75 pct chance that QB will suck. I mean SK couldn't even land a guard with the 7th overall draft pick; grabbed Troy Nickedupglass in the 2nd and grabbed a RB converted CB in the 3rd for example. Also Keim gets outworked every year; where the guy the Cards really want; get taken by a team that jumps up above them; because the needs so glaring, it takes any mystery out of who the Cards target

 

[Snakester]

If we get a franchise QB by trading up then any price is worth it. Say we trade up to 8 and get Mayfield and he becomes the next Drew Brees. We give up our 1st, 3rd and next years 2nd. I think we come away with a steal.

If we trade our entire draft to move up and get Mayfield and he becomes the next Drew Brees we still have the steal of the draft.

 

[Stout]

I would be hard pressed to ever use a high pick on a rookie qb. Just too much of a gamble. Give me more of a sure thing. If i got lucky with a late round qb becoming a Brady like find then fine. Otherwise I would settle for a late rounder being a backup. I just hate the idea of gambling away high picks, even late first or second rounders.

Now there are exceptions to everything. In a year with a very weak draft, maybe it would be worth a shot.

This makes no sense. It's not a gamble at all anymore. It isn't a punitively high contract, nor are there hold outs. If you miss, you simply miss. Would drafting a QB in the first round be any more of a risk than stupid picks of 'potential' players in the first round that contribute nothing in their first year, if at all?

 

[BillsCarnage]

This makes no sense. It's not a gamble at all anymore. It isn't a punitively high contract, nor are there hold outs. If you miss, you simply miss. Would drafting a QB in the first round be any more of a risk than stupid picks of 'potential' players in the first round that contribute nothing in their first year, if at all?

Heck, I'd probably draft a QB every draft. You're bound to find one at some point or maybe the proverbial diamond in the rough.

 

[GimmedaBall]

It doesn't matter SKs draft board. SK is abysmal at the draft; he's fine in the later rds but picks Rd 1 through 3; he gets cute and has completely whiffed more than hit. Why does anyone have faith he will select a relevant QB. Keim saw something in Logan Thomas lol. Even if the Cards move up; there is about a 75 pct chance that QB will suck. I mean SK couldn't even land a guard with the 7th overall draft pick; grabbed Troy Nickedupglass in the 2nd and grabbed a RB converted CB in the 3rd for example. Also Keim gets outworked every year; where the guy the Cards really want; get taken by a team that jumps up above them; because the needs so glaring, it takes any mystery out of who the Cards target

Is it possible that SK does not trade up because on his draft board the pick that he is at is higher than the value he has on that QB still sitting on the board?

If SK is sitting on the #15 pick and his BPA pre-draft evaluation has that remaining QB at #20---why would SK give up his #15 + additional draft choices to move up for a guy he has rated lower than #15??? What looks like inaction by SK is actually SK sticking to his draft board and not shooting from the hip on draft day.

The debate has gone on before on how SK develops his draft board. Does his BPA rating include 'Position of Need' as a factor? Based on draft history and trade up moves, it doesn't look like PON is a big factor in SK's draft mindset. I think it is safe to say the QBOTF has been a PON for many years yet SK has not made the move up to grab someone---case in point would be Paxton Lynch, Watson, Mahomes. Even Jacoby Brisett was taken one pick before the Cards by the Pats in the 3rd round with the Cards not bothering to leapfrog the Pats for the pick.

Gotta believe BA would have loved to have one of those guys under the Christmas tree---BA would also churn the roster and pick a QB in the next draft if a guy wasn't working out. Many of BA's pre-draft comments to the media during his tenure focused on getting a QB. Need to appreciate those comment now not as a unified BASK statement but rather BA trying to make his case to SK by advocating through the media.

Card's Trivia: Cards actually traded up in the draft for a QB in 2010. They dealt a player and a pick to move up. One of the players the Cards traded spent one year with the Cards and then went back to the team that had originally drafted him in the 2nd round. The player taken with the pick that the Cards traded is still with the team and has put up some pretty good numbers. Name the three players involved.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Is it possible that SK does not trade up because on his draft board the pick that he is at is higher than the value he has on that QB still sitting on the board?

If SK is sitting on the #15 pick and his BPA pre-draft evaluation has that remaining QB at #20---why would SK give up his #15 + additional draft choices to move up for a guy he has rated lower than #15??? What looks like inaction by SK is actually SK sticking to his draft board and not shooting from the hip on draft day.

The debate has gone on before on how SK develops his draft board. Does his BPA rating include 'Position of Need' as a factor? Based on draft history and trade up moves, it doesn't look like PON is a big factor in SK's draft mindset. I think it is safe to say the QBOTF has been a PON for many years yet SK has not made the move up to grab someone--QUOTE]

Is it possible that SK does not trade up because on his draft board the pick that he is at is higher than the value he has on that QB still sitting on the board?

If SK is sitting on the #15 pick and his BPA pre-draft evaluation has that remaining QB at #20---why would SK give up his #15 + additional draft choices to move up for a guy he has rated lower than #15??? What looks like inaction by SK is actually SK sticking to his draft board and not shooting from the hip on draft day.

The debate has gone on before on how SK develops his draft board. Does his BPA rating include 'Position of Need' as a factor? Based on draft history and trade up moves, it doesn't look like PON is a big factor in SK's draft mindset. I think it is safe to say the QBOTF has been a PON for many years yet SK has not made the move up to grab someone---case in point would be Paxton Lynch, Watson, Mahomes. Even Jacoby Brisett was taken one pick before the Cards by the Pats in the 3rd round with the Cards not bothering to leapfrog the Pats for the pick.

Gotta believe BA would have loved to have one of those guys under the Christmas tree---BA would also churn the roster and pick a QB in the next draft if a guy wasn't working out. Many of BA's pre-draft comments to the media during his tenure focused on getting a QB. Need to appreciate those comment now not as a unified BASK statement but rather BA trying to make his case to SK by advocating through the media.

Card's Trivia: Cards actually traded up in the draft for a QB in 2010. They dealt a player and a pick to move up. One of the players the Cards traded spent one year with the Cards and then went back to the team that had originally drafted him in the 2nd round. The player taken with the pick that the Cards traded is still with the team and has put up some pretty good numbers. Name the three players involved.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...first-round-arizona-cardinals-pick/307191001/

What I am saying is Keim doesn't move up or down or even take a QB, because he cant eveluate one properly. Besides Palmer look at the trainwrecks behind Palmer. The only QB he has drafted was another player who changed positions, something Keim always gets infatuated over with players in the draft.
Even with a glaring hole at future QB, he has stated many times Reddick was higher on the board than the QBs. Also Buchanon was higher on the board than Carr, Both times Arians stated his interest and Keim didn't pull the trigger.
So even with people on this Board were screaming Carr, Watson, Mahommes that weren't even on the radar as guys Keim wanted. Keim waited to long now we will see how he addresses but I feel it will be a struggle like it was for the Cards to add a pass rusher. Bringing in guys on there last legs to fill the job; until they draft one. But Keim kept getting leapfrogged by teams In the draft; that stole the pass rusher they coveted, year after year, due to teams being able to analyze what spot they would have to trade up to to land a pass rusher

 

[DevonCardsFan]

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...re-miserable-at-executing-the-draft-pick-swap

Great Article on drafts and trading, you can add to your top post on how poor teams do moving to get who they want

 

[GimmedaBall]

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...re-miserable-at-executing-the-draft-pick-swap

Great Article on drafts and trading, you can add to your top post on how poor teams do moving to get who they want

Good article. (I see the answer to my Cards Trivia question is answered in the article).

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Good article. (I see the answer to my Cards Trivia question is answered in the article).

Oh wow, I was still in the middle, just got to there. Was trying to find more research on the bad idea to trade up: for every Wentz story there are 99 more horror stories lol and that's a bad one! Antonio Brown hahahahaa

 

[crisper57]

Just saw a story that the Bills are trying to move up to the #2 pick to get Rosen.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Oh wow, I was still in the middle, just got to there. Was trying to find more research on the bad idea to trade up: for every Wentz story there are 99 more horror stories lol and that's a bad one! Antonio Brown hahahahaa

Yup. Antonio Brown April 24, 2010: Traded by Cardinals as 2010 6th round pick (195th overall) with Bryant McFadden to Steelers for 2010 5th round pick (155th overall, John Skelton)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowAn04.htm

 

[GimmedaBall]

Just saw a story that the Bills are trying to move up to the #2 pick to get Rosen.

Any idea on what they are willing to trade? They do have two picks in the 1st round this year at #21 and #22. Wonder how this registers with Giant fans?

 

[Mitch]

Any idea on what they are willing to trade? They do have two picks in the 1st round this year at #21 and #22. Wonder how this registers with Giant fans?

I think it would have to involve both the #21 and #22 picks and a player of note.

 

[Gandhi]

Comments and evaluations from around the league in regards to trading up in the draft to obtain a quarterback. Quick summary: Does not look promising.

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2018/01/does_trading_up_for_a_quarterback_in_the_nfl_draft.html

Great breakdown of some recent deals and how the QBOTF turned out:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...und-quarterback-is-generally-a-terrible-idea/

Result summary from 2005 to 2017:
http://www.footballperspective.com/teams-traded-up-for-a-1st-round-qb-16-times-from-2005-to-2017/

Buffalo Bill fan column on moving up in the draft:
https://www.buffalorumblings.com/20...-nfl-history-trading-up-franchise-quarterback

Article from 2016 that is critical of the Eagles and Rams moving up for Wentz and Goff. Author is now probably sorry that stuff posted on the Net doesn’t just disappear:
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2016/4/21/11446886/rams-nfl-draft-rumors-carson-wentz-jared-goff

Summary chart from http://www.phillyvoice.com/review-10-teams-who-traded-quarterbacks-last-10-years/

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Thanks for the interesting links, GDB! However, the results are unfortunately made from using rather old data, and that makes for some misunderstood opinions. If you click here you can read my write up on why it might be different to trade up for a quarterback now compared to five or ten years ago.

 

[GimmedaBall]

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...re-miserable-at-executing-the-draft-pick-swap

Great Article on drafts and trading, you can add to your top post on how poor teams do moving to get who they want

Thanks. Added to the original post on page 1.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Thanks for the interesting links, GDB! However, the results are unfortunately made from using rather old data, and that makes for some misunderstood opinions. If you click here you can read my write up on why it might be different to trade up for a quarterback now compared to five or ten years ago.

Thanks for the link to your write-up. As to the links I provided as being old . . . well, that's what happens when you do a historical review. History is old stuff.

 

[Solar7]

If we get a franchise QB by trading up then any price is worth it. Say we trade up to 8 and get Mayfield and he becomes the next Drew Brees. We give up our 1st, 3rd and next years 2nd. I think we come away with a steal.

If we trade our entire draft to move up and get Mayfield and he becomes the next Drew Brees we still have the steal of the draft.

And if we trade our entire draft to move up and get Mayfield and he becomes the next Johnny Manziel, we will have the bust of the draft.

 

[Chopper0080]

All of this shows why it is stupid to trade up to get the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft. IT has a higher bust rate, which makes it less likely to succeed.

HOWEVER, if you trade up for the BEST QB IN THE CLASS, your rate of success dramatically improves.

In 2016 - Goff (Jeff Fisher) or Wentz, your choice.
2015 - Jameis Winston of Mariota
2014 - Blake Bortles
2012 - Andrew Luck
2011 - Cam Newton
2010 - Sam Bradford (Jeff Fisher)
2009 - Matt Stafford
2008 - Matt Ryan
2007 - Jamarcus Russell
2006 - Vince Young (Jeff Fisher)

That's not cherry picking any stats, it is just a team making a move for the top QB selected that year. Probably a 50% absolute success rate (Goff/Wentz, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan). 20% absolute failure (Russell and Young). 30% coin flip (Winston/Mariota, Bortles, Bradford).

So again, trading up to get the 3rd QB available, probably a bad idea. Trading up for your pick of all of the QBs, probably going to solve your QB problem.

 

[cardncubfan]

All of this shows why it is stupid to trade up to get the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft. IT has a higher bust rate, which makes it less likely to succeed.

HOWEVER, if you trade up for the BEST QB IN THE CLASS, your rate of success dramatically improves.

In 2016 - Goff (Jeff Fisher) or Wentz, your choice.
2015 - Jameis Winston of Mariota
2014 - Blake Bortles
2012 - Andrew Luck
2011 - Cam Newton
2010 - Sam Bradford (Jeff Fisher)
2009 - Matt Stafford
2008 - Matt Ryan
2007 - Jamarcus Russell
2006 - Vince Young (Jeff Fisher)

That's not cherry picking any stats, it is just a team making a move for the top QB selected that year. Probably a 50% absolute success rate (Goff/Wentz, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan). 20% absolute failure (Russell and Young). 30% coin flip (Winston/Mariota, Bortles, Bradford).

So again, trading up to get the 3rd QB available, probably a bad idea. Trading up for your pick of all of the QBs, probably going to solve your QB problem.

Thing is you have to make sure who you feel is the best QB is actually the best QB.

 

[Solar7]

All of this shows why it is stupid to trade up to get the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft. IT has a higher bust rate, which makes it less likely to succeed.

HOWEVER, if you trade up for the BEST QB IN THE CLASS, your rate of success dramatically improves.

In 2016 - Goff (Jeff Fisher) or Wentz, your choice.
2015 - Jameis Winston of Mariota
2014 - Blake Bortles
2012 - Andrew Luck
2011 - Cam Newton
2010 - Sam Bradford (Jeff Fisher)
2009 - Matt Stafford
2008 - Matt Ryan
2007 - Jamarcus Russell
2006 - Vince Young (Jeff Fisher)

That's not cherry picking any stats, it is just a team making a move for the top QB selected that year. Probably a 50% absolute success rate (Goff/Wentz, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan). 20% absolute failure (Russell and Young). 30% coin flip (Winston/Mariota, Bortles, Bradford).

So again, trading up to get the 3rd QB available, probably a bad idea. Trading up for your pick of all of the QBs, probably going to solve your QB problem.

The key thing here being is that most of these guys weren't available for trade. Most of the teams sitting at #1 overall probably need a QB, and probably aren't going to give up and let another team have them.

Cleveland made one (two, but not on that list) really bad moves, and probably won't do it again.

 

[Stout]

Is it possible that SK does not trade up because on his draft board the pick that he is at is higher than the value he has on that QB still sitting on the board?

If SK is sitting on the #15 pick and his BPA pre-draft evaluation has that remaining QB at #20---why would SK give up his #15 + additional draft choices to move up for a guy he has rated lower than #15??? What looks like inaction by SK is actually SK sticking to his draft board and not shooting from the hip on draft day.

The debate has gone on before on how SK develops his draft board. Does his BPA rating include 'Position of Need' as a factor? Based on draft history and trade up moves, it doesn't look like PON is a big factor in SK's draft mindset. I think it is safe to say the QBOTF has been a PON for many years yet SK has not made the move up to grab someone---case in point would be Paxton Lynch, Watson, Mahomes. Even Jacoby Brisett was taken one pick before the Cards by the Pats in the 3rd round with the Cards not bothering to leapfrog the Pats for the pick.

Gotta believe BA would have loved to have one of those guys under the Christmas tree---BA would also churn the roster and pick a QB in the next draft if a guy wasn't working out. Many of BA's pre-draft comments to the media during his tenure focused on getting a QB. Need to appreciate those comment now not as a unified BASK statement but rather BA trying to make his case to SK by advocating through the media.

Card's Trivia: Cards actually traded up in the draft for a QB in 2010. They dealt a player and a pick to move up. One of the players the Cards traded spent one year with the Cards and then went back to the team that had originally drafted him in the 2nd round. The player taken with the pick that the Cards traded is still with the team and has put up some pretty good numbers. Name the three players involved.

And I trust Keim's draft board (especially in the 1st round) about as much as I trust Freddie Krueger at a sleep clinic.

 

[Chopper0080]

Thing is you have to make sure who you feel is the best QB is actually the best QB.

Sure, but putting myself into the position to select the best option available is the right move regardless of the outcome. If you are planning for your evaluators to be incompetent, than you have the wrong people in place. If you have the right people in place, you should be able to identify the best of the bunch.

 

[Chopper0080]

The key thing here being is that most of these guys weren't available for trade. Most of the teams sitting at #1 overall probably need a QB, and probably aren't going to give up and let another team have them.

Cleveland made one (two, but not on that list) really bad moves, and probably won't do it again.

Ok, so that it means it is even MORE critical to move up to grab the best QB in a draft when you have the opportunity because it RARELY occurs. As you have identified, it is a very risky move to trade for leftovers. But, as I have shown, if you have an opportunity to move up to get the best guy in the draft, the level of risk greatly decreases.

So, historically speaking, offering three first round picks to move up to #1 in the draft is a pretty worthwhile move unless you have Jeff Fisher as your head coach or you are trading up for Jamarcus Russell.

 

[Solar7]

Ok, so that it means it is even MORE critical to move up to grab the best QB in a draft when you have the opportunity because it RARELY occurs. As you have identified, it is a very risky move to trade for leftovers. But, as I have shown, if you have an opportunity to move up to get the best guy in the draft, the level of risk greatly decreases.

So, historically speaking, offering three first round picks to move up to #1 in the draft is a pretty worthwhile move unless you have Jeff Fisher as your head coach or you are trading up for Jamarcus Russell.

Except, again, those guys aren't just available for trade. It takes a team that either absolutely does not need a QB (doesn't apply to Cleveland or NYG), or a team making a critically stupid mistake, and CLE has been burned too many times in recent years to not stand pat and take the stud QB.

I'm sorry, if the Browns do not want any of these QBs at 1, I don't want them either.