Trading up in the Draft for a QB

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Except, again, those guys aren't just available for trade. It takes a team that either absolutely does not need a QB (doesn't apply to Cleveland or NYG), or a team making a critically stupid mistake, and CLE has been burned too many times in recent years to not stand pat and take the stud QB.

I'm sorry, if the Browns do not want any of these QBs at 1, I don't want them either.

They traded away from their spot to take Carson Wentz, so don't put any onus in what Cleveland does, or doesn't do.

 

[Chopper0080]

Except, again, those guys aren't just available for trade. It takes a team that either absolutely does not need a QB (doesn't apply to Cleveland or NYG), or a team making a critically stupid mistake, and CLE has been burned too many times in recent years to not stand pat and take the stud QB.

I'm sorry, if the Browns do not want any of these QBs at 1, I don't want them either.

That is the wrong type of thinking. The idea is that you can give Cleveland enough to make them think that taking a QB at #4 instead is the better move.

Essentially, three first round picks PLUS Josh Allen is better than Sam Darnold at #1.

 

[Solar7]

They traded away from their spot to take Carson Wentz, so don't put any onus in what Cleveland does, or doesn't do.

Again, two bad mistakes two years in a row, and now they have a competent front office. They can't afford to not stand pat here and take the guy that should guide their franchise for the next 15 years.

That is the wrong type of thinking. The idea is that you can give Cleveland enough to make them think that taking a QB at #4 instead is the better move.

Essentially, three first round picks PLUS Josh Allen is better than Sam Darnold at #1.

Sorry, but Cleveland has moved back and back and back and back, continuously acquiring more draft capital, they need to draft premium players. Real blue chip guys. They also have a hundred million dollars in cap space. It's time for them to start acquiring true stars, not future assets.

 

[moklerman]

Again, two bad mistakes two years in a row, and now they have a competent front office. They can't afford to not stand pat here and take the guy that should guide their franchise for the next 15 years.


Sorry, but Cleveland has moved back and back and back and back, continuously acquiring more draft capital, they need to draft premium players. Real blue chip guys. They also have a hundred million dollars in cap space. It's time for them to start acquiring true stars, not future assets.

Would you mind listing the changes to their front office? I'm not familiar with the changes they've made. Can't believe they kept 1-31 Hue Jackson.

 

[Solar7]

Would you mind listing the changes to their front office? I'm not familiar with the changes they've made. Can't believe they kept 1-31 Hue Jackson.

Here's a link to an article, but it starts with John Dorsey coming on board, really.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland...ce-looks-great-but-will-it-function-113570333

 

[Chopper0080]

Again, two bad mistakes two years in a row, and now they have a competent front office. They can't afford to not stand pat here and take the guy that should guide their franchise for the next 15 years.


Sorry, but Cleveland has moved back and back and back and back, continuously acquiring more draft capital, they need to draft premium players. Real blue chip guys. They also have a hundred million dollars in cap space. It's time for them to start acquiring true stars, not future assets.

So if they don't see a huge difference between the top 3 or 4 QBs in the draft, why wouldn't they make the trade?

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

Just saw a story that the Bills are trying to move up to the #2 pick to get Rosen.

I would think it prudent for any qb needing team to package as much as 3 first rounders, if needed, to move up and get him. Forget your next couple years 1st pick, when you have your franchise qb in hand. You will have the main battle already won.

 

[Solar7]

So if they don't see a huge difference between the top 3 or 4 QBs in the draft, why wouldn't they make the trade?

Sounds to me like you're wishing for something to happen to fit your narrative instead of looking at this objectively.

The Cleveland Browns need to identify their quarterback of the future. It is a franchise that since it was reintroduced into the league, has completely failed to field an adequate long term starter. They can't afford to say "well, any of these guys will work" and pick the leftovers.

 

[Chopper0080]

Sounds to me like you're wishing for something to happen to fit your narrative instead of looking at this objectively.

The Cleveland Browns need to identify their quarterback of the future. It is a franchise that since it was reintroduced into the league, has completely failed to field an adequate long term starter. They can't afford to say "well, any of these guys will work" and pick the leftovers.

When people on a message board can't agree on who is better Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Darnold, then it isn't too far fetched to believe GMs may differ as well.

 

[oaken1]

When people on a message board can't agree on who is better Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Darnold, then it isn't too far fetched to believe GMs may differ as well.

yeah... amazingly, they are just people too, lol...and some folks dont realize how hard it actually is to make that top pick.... there isnt a GM in the league who wants to be picking a QB at #1 in the draft...except for maybe the ones who dont have the top pick...

I would bet money clevelands GM offers a fat arsed contract to cousins,...and tries to trade for Nick Foles... before he resigns himself to picking a QB at #1.... not one or the other, but both..assuming cousins tells him no, lol

 

[Solar7]

When people on a message board can't agree on who is better Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Darnold, then it isn't too far fetched to believe GMs may differ as well.

I disagree. None of us here have the information that a professional organization gets when evaluating these guys. We don't have the time to watch and rewatch film, none of us will be on the field at the Combine, none of us will have the opportunity to interview the QBs. They are playing on a much different level.

 

[GimmedaBall]

I disagree. None of us here have the information that a professional organization gets when evaluating these guys. We don't have the time to watch and rewatch film, none of us will be on the field at the Combine, none of us will have the opportunity to interview the QBs. They are playing on a much different level.

True. And they still disagree with even more certainty than you see on a fan forum.

 

[moklerman]

I disagree. None of us here have the information that a professional organization gets when evaluating these guys. We don't have the time to watch and rewatch film, none of us will be on the field at the Combine, none of us will have the opportunity to interview the QBs. They are playing on a much different level.

Thought we were talking about the Browns?

 

[GimmedaBall]

I started this thread trying to appreciate if it was a good idea to bundle a bunch of draft picks in order to trade up for a QB (who hopefully becomes the franchise QB).

Here's a recent scenario involving the Cards that can further the debate:

On July 29, 2011: Cards traded for Kevin Kolb of the Eagles 2012 by sending a 2nd round pick (51st overall subsequently traded, Jerel Worthy) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Other QBs on the Cards 2011 roster included Skelton and Bartel.

Now, imagine if instead of trading that #2 and DRC at the end of the July, the Cards went into the 2011 draft that spring looking to trade up for a QB. For the sake of argument, assume that it would cost them their next 3 #1 picks to move up to take the ‘hot-prospect’ #1 QB in that draft: Cam Newton.

(You are welcome to do other draft value estimates, I just pulled the 3 out of a hat. Also have to assume that the subsequent picks in 2012 and 2013 were the same draft slots)

In the hypothetical trade scenario, getting Cam Newton would have cost the Cards:

Cards would have surrendered their 2011 #1 (at pick 5): Patrick Peterson
Cards would have surrendered their 2012 #1 (at pick 13): Michael Floyd
Cards would have surrendered their 2013 #1 (at pick 7): Jonathan Cooper

So, would you rather have Cam Netwton + assets not traded in the Kevin Kolb deal = DRC and Jerel Worthy (career backup DT: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WortJe00.htm)

OR

PP, Floyd, Cooper (later flipped for Chandler Jones) so, make it PP, Floyd, Chandler Jones

Cam + DRC + Worthy OR PP + Floyd+ Chandler Jones

 

[GimmedaBall]

So, no takers on the scenario with the Cards trading up for Cam Newton at the cost of 3 #1 picks.

That hypothetical is a tough one because trading up looks good for both options with Cam as a franchise QB + DRC through his most productive years. Keeping the 3 picks looks good with PP and eventually Chandler Jones coming to the Cards. Staying put also got some production out of Michael Floyd even as it was not 1st round value and years.

The scenario puts some real players to the question of moving up or staying put.

With the hindsight provided by a couple of years past that 2011 draft, I'd go with Cam + DRC + Worthy. That from someone who does not want to trade draft picks to move up. Cam's MVP year would have carried the Cards to the SB just as it did the Panthers.

As we all understand, without a QB,you ain't got a football team.

Anyone game to chime in?

 

[Mainstreet]

So who is worth 3 #1 picks in this draft?

 

[GimmedaBall]

So who is worth 3 #1 picks in this draft?

The guy who puts up HOF numbers immediately and is able to elevate the team to not just compete for but win the SB.

Check back after the draft in three years and I'll tell you who he is. If you are a really smart GM, you won't have to wait three years. You will know if you want to keep those picks or give them up to trade for your guy.

In the meantime, how about the scenario where you don't have to wait three years to know how the players perform:

Cam + DRC + Worthy OR PP + Floyd+ Chandler Jones

 

[Solar7]

So, no takers on the scenario with the Cards trading up for Cam Newton at the cost of 3 #1 picks.

That hypothetical is a tough one because trading up looks good for both options with Cam as a franchise QB + DRC through his most productive years. Keeping the 3 picks looks good with PP and eventually Chandler Jones coming to the Cards. Staying put also got some production out of Michael Floyd even as it was not 1st round value and years.

The scenario puts some real players to the question of moving up or staying put.

With the hindsight provided by a couple of years past that 2011 draft, I'd go with Cam + DRC + Worthy. That from someone who does not want to trade draft picks to move up. Cam's MVP year would have carried the Cards to the SB just as it did the Panthers.

As we all understand, without a QB,you ain't got a football team.

Anyone game to chime in?

I admire your desire to throw in hypothetical scenarios here, so I'll join in.

Taking your setup at face value, of course I'd go with the route that involves us getting Cam Newton.

But the truth is, taking Cam that year, if he produced the same as his rookie year, we wouldn't have been picking at 5. PP21 would be gone. Cooper wasn't flipped for Chandler Jones, it involved a 2nd rounder... and with Cam, we probably wouldn't have drafted at 7. We might have not even signed Arians.

The problem is, this is wildly convoluted. Yes, if we all had time machines, we might do things differently. The reality of trading up for Cam Newton is that Whiz would have lasted a few more years, and the franchise would have taken a very different direction. However, would he have been as successful in his rookie year sharing the rushing load with Beanie Wells instead of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart?

More importantly, would Carolina have ever even slightly considered taking three picks to keep trying Jimmy Clausen as a starter, instead of the guy who just dynamically blew up college football in an incredible, energizing upset? I thought Cam was going to be another Jamarcus, but he clearly was not, and the Panthers clearly did the right thing by staying where they were and taking him, despite having invested a high 2nd round pick on Clausen a year before.

We can dream all day long about the players we could have traded up for, but so can every other franchise.

 

[PitchShifter]

Any trade solely based on draft picks will be awfully expensive from #15 so the best route seems to be a mix of draft picks and assets.

2018 #15 1st round pick
2018 #47 2nd round pick
2019 #?? 2nd round pick
Deone Bucannon
For
2018 #3, Colts - a team with an established QB and an apparent need at ILB.

I'd roll with Bynes & Riddick and hope the former Carolina staff can get more out of Riddick than the former staff. Look for FA or later draft help for more depth.

I understand the reluctance for "the 3rd QB taken", but I think 2018 is a rare year for starting calibre QBs and the order QBs are taken is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Yes, still a gamble, but if the trade busts out, the cost isn't crippling IMHO.

(Disclaimer - I don't now Bucannon's contract status)

 

[WildBB]

Unless they're really targeting Mayfield or Allen specifically we don't need to trade into top 10. Oakland or Miami should suffice if we want to move up and ensure no one jumps ahead to take a QB ahead of us, if all four are gone, likely Jackson.

It would really be surprising if 5 go in the top 10.

Whiners may trade out however.

 

[GimmedaBall]

I admire your desire to throw in hypothetical scenarios here, so I'll join in.

Taking your setup at face value, of course I'd go with the route that involves us getting Cam Newton.

But the truth is, taking Cam that year, if he produced the same as his rookie year, we wouldn't have been picking at 5. PP21 would be gone. Cooper wasn't flipped for Chandler Jones, it involved a 2nd rounder... and with Cam, we probably wouldn't have drafted at 7. We might have not even signed Arians.

The problem is, this is wildly convoluted. Yes, if we all had time machines, we might do things differently. The reality of trading up for Cam Newton is that Whiz would have lasted a few more years, and the franchise would have taken a very different direction. However, would he have been as successful in his rookie year sharing the rushing load with Beanie Wells instead of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart?

More importantly, would Carolina have ever even slightly considered taking three picks to keep trying Jimmy Clausen as a starter, instead of the guy who just dynamically blew up college football in an incredible, energizing upset? I thought Cam was going to be another Jamarcus, but he clearly was not, and the Panthers clearly did the right thing by staying where they were and taking him, despite having invested a high 2nd round pick on Clausen a year before.

We can dream all day long about the players we could have traded up for, but so can every other franchise.

Agree that it is pretty convoluted to try and tease out the effects of either making a trade up or staying put with one's 'earned' draft spot.

Notice I had to make the caveat that our picks/players traded away would be the ones we would lose in the trade. There's no guarantee who the Panthers would take in the draft and which players would have gone to them in the trade. Also, I didn't trace back the #2 that went to the Pats along with Cooper---I think they traded that #2 so the players involved in that part of the deal weren't considered. There are plenty of teams who would have stuck with Clausen and made the trade down deal for multiple picks figuring they had already invested in a QB and they were going to give him an extended audition.

My point in trying to ferret out the details of this pretty recent draft history was (1) to see how those who are game to trade multiple draft picks for a franchise QB (who actually worked out as a #1 overall pick) would respond and (2) to see how those who are reluctant or who refuse to trade picks would respond.

The Cam trade up scenario was one that would have gotten us a franchise QB. I'm sure to hear that some don't consider Cam a franchise QB---but that is another debate.

SK's reluctance to trade away future drafts is more understandable if you look at the analysis I posted in the OP. Is there anyone reading who would have not made the Cam trade and instead would be happy with PP + Floyd + Cooper (Jones - a #2)? That seems to be SK's approach. Trust your draft board for BPA, fill in the Needs via FA and one-year prove it deals or low draft choice trades (see Palmer)---that goes for QBs as well as any other position on the field.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Any trade solely based on draft picks will be awfully expensive from #15 so the best route seems to be a mix of draft picks and assets.

2018 #15 1st round pick
2018 #47 2nd round pick
2019 #?? 2nd round pick
Deone Bucannon
For
2018 #3, Colts - a team with an established QB and an apparent need at ILB.

I'd roll with Bynes & Riddick and hope the former Carolina staff can get more out of Riddick than the former staff. Look for FA or later draft help for more depth.

I understand the reluctance for "the 3rd QB taken", but I think 2018 is a rare year for starting calibre QBs and the order QBs are taken is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Yes, still a gamble, but if the trade busts out, the cost isn't crippling IMHO.

(Disclaimer - I don't now Bucannon's contract status)

So, does your willingness to bundle picks this year to move to #3 mean you would have traded 3 #1 picks in 2011 to move up for Cam (with DRC still on the team because we would not have traded him for Kolb?)

 

[AZfaninMN]

Unless they're really targeting Mayfield or Allen specifically we don't need to trade into top 10. Oakland or Miami should suffice if we want to move up and ensure no one jumps ahead to take a QB ahead of us, if all four are gone, likely Jackson.

It would really be surprising if 5 go in the top 10.

Whiners may trade out however.

The team I’m most afraid of in sitting and waiting for a qb are the bills. They gave 2 firsts this year and could throw in next years first or a 2nd this year and jump in front of us like the chiefs and Texans did last year. If we don’t have to offer too much I wouldn’t mind jumping up to 11 with the phins to get our qb if he’s still on the board. I agree, I don’t see 5 QBs going in the top 10, but 11-15 I could see a lot of trades to qb needy teams knowing we’re looking for one.

 

[Mainstreet]

The guy who puts up HOF numbers immediately and is able to elevate the team to not just compete for but win the SB.

Check back after the draft in three years and I'll tell you who he is. If you are a really smart GM, you won't have to wait three years. You will know if you want to keep those picks or give them up to trade for your guy.

In the meantime, how about the scenario where you don't have to wait three years to know how the players perform:

Cam + DRC + Worthy OR PP + Floyd+ Chandler Jones

I was hoping to get a the name of a QB in this draft who you think is worthy of three first round picks.

I don't ask for much.

 

[oaken1]

So, does your willingness to bundle picks this year to move to #3 mean you would have traded 3 #1 picks in 2011 to move up for Cam (with DRC still on the team because we would not have traded him for Kolb?)

I advocated trading up for Cam back then...and still think it would have been a good idea.

both teams have seen a super bowl... but the team with Cam still has hope to see another...whereas right now we do not.

the biggest difference is cam lead his team to their super bowl...PP21 didnt lead us to ours..... they did have a good defense, so I dont want to totally discount the team play factor... but the QB touches the ball on every snap and contributes to every score,.... a corner only stops a single player on the other team from contributing... but the QB can still throw to everyone else