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Now hear this: We're talking tourney before Selection Sunday
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Posted: March 10, 2008
Mike DeCourcy, Ryan Fagan, Jay Bilas, Jerry Palm
For Sporting News
You don't get to call yourself an expert if you wait until the bracket comes out and then make your picks. When we convened a roundtable tourney discussion with Sporting News writers Mike DeCourcy and Ryan Fagan, ESPN analyst Jay Bilas and Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com, we told them we weren't willing to wait until Selection Sunday to get all the answers.
OK, so who are the No. 1 seeds?
DeCOURCY: I've got UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina and Tennessee. There's no question in my mind that Kansas has better talent and more of the right components to win the national title than the Vols, but the Jayhawks have not gotten it done in big games this year. Of course, they didn't play many, but that's how it goes. You have to earn these seeds, and on the way into the Big 12 Tournament, KU still had not.
BILAS: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas -- because they're the four best teams in the country.
PALM: Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA.
FAGAN: North Carolina, Tennessee, Memphis and UCLA. The Bruins have shown a vulnerable side the past month, but they also have proved their mettle in some close wins. Surviving in those pressure situations only will help them in the tournament.
Of the teams in the mix for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, which has the best chance of an early exit?
PALM: Georgetown. I think they're a bit soft and don't play with much passion. Of course, every time I think that, they do something like come back to beat Marquette on the road.
BILAS: It's the teams that rely on perimeter shooting -- and the teams that are not as solid defensively -- that have a chance to get clipped. A team like Texas or even Tennessee. I think Duke is in that boat, where if they don't shoot it particularly well , they're subject to getting upset.
DeCOURCY: Georgetown has tremendous talent, but the Hoyas keep putting themselves in jeopardy against teams that are no better than the No. 7 or 8 seeds they'll see in the tournament's second round. I still don't believe their offensive system takes full advantage of their firepower. They're great at coming up with winning plays in close games, but you can't argue against the idea that they've been very fortunate.
FAGAN: Duke. The Blue Devils were vulnerable in the last month of the regular season, losing three times and needing a huge comeback against N.C. State to avoid a fourth loss. Coach K has learned to mask the offense's lack of a true post presence, but weaknesses have a way of being exploited in the tournament.
Who is your dark horse to win the title -- to match what Florida achieved in 2006?
BILAS: Probably Louisville. They have seven losses, but they're better than seven losses.
FAGAN: Stanford. The twin Lopez towers create huge matchup issues, and the depth of the supporting cast makes the Cardinal a legitimate threat.
DeCOURCY: If there's a team that can come out of the shadows and into the title game, it's Connecticut. They've got an outstanding point guard, a shot-blocking center, depth at guard and extraordinary athleticism. There's a pretty decent drop-off between UConn's starting frontcourt and the guys who replace them, so the Huskies can't afford foul trouble for Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien. But if they're lucky there, I could see them upsetting some big-time teams.
PALM: Louisville. They were a preseason top 10 team that had a rough couple of months because of injuries. They are now playing like we thought they would but might not get that high of a seed.
What player do you think will have the biggest impact on his team's NCAA Tournament fortunes?
DeCOURCY: Kevin Love changes every game he plays in. His ability to be strong in the post, to occupy space defensively and collect defensive rebounds, to pass in the halfcourt and to ignite fast breaks -- there's nobody like him in college basketball. Usually post players like him find their way deep into the tournament.
PALM: Michael Beasley. No team depends on one guy more.
FAGAN: D.J. Augustin. First off, Texas isn't as star-centric as it was with Kevin Durant last season. Augustin is vastly improved after a strong offseason, and his teammates rely on him not only to score but also to distribute the ball and make the offense hum. When he's playing better, his teammates are playing better.
What is the most important quality in a national championship team?
DeCOURCY: I believe it's the ability to manufacture baskets when the defense takes away your system and you have to rely on your players' ingenuity and confidence. Scouting and game preparation are so good in the NCAA Tournament that it's going to be hard to run your stuff by the fifth or sixth game. That's when talent takes over, so long as that talent is applied for the sake of the team and not just for somebody to get his 20 points.
BILAS: Well, you can't live without talent, but I'd say experience together, a team that has played together and has been through it together.
PALM: NBA first-round draft choice talent. It's been over 20 years since someone won the title without it.
Pick one matchup you would like to see more than any other.
DeCOURCY: Stanford against Tennessee in an Elite Eight or a Sweet 16 game. They're almost total opposites. Stanford brings the inside power against the Vols' depth and athleticism at guard. Stanford is happy to play in the 50s or 60s, and Tennessee wants that by halftime. Stanford got clobbered when it played a pressing team, Louisville, in last year's first round. It'd be interesting to see how far the Cardinal have come.
BILAS: I'd like to see UCLA and North Carolina play. To see Kevin Love and Tyler Hansbrough go at It -- and all those guards -- that'd be great. But I'd love to see UCLA and Kansas go at it, too. I watched that last year; it was a great game.
FAGAN: Louisville vs. Tennessee.
PALM: You mean besides Purdue vs. anyone in the Final Four? North Carolina vs. Kansas State. Let Michael Beasley and Tyler Hansbrough decide player of the year head-to-head.
What change would you make to the selection process?
DeCOURCY: I'd get rid of the "last 12 games" component. It's a crutch. The committee members know there's no statistical correlation between how a team finishes the season and how it performs in the NCAAs. It's been proved over and over again, year after year, but so far they've refused to get rid of it. If they know finishing strong has no impact, then it should have no more bearing on whether a team is selected than whether its coach is bald or if the dance team has nice uniforms. It's the one element of the process that feels dishonest.
PALM: I don't really have any significant issue with the process. I suppose I'd probably put less emphasis on how a team finishes and a little more on balance of power in the bracketing process.
BILAS: I'd have the committee be made up of people who have basketball experience -- playing or coaching -- and I would not have people on the committee who have not had significant basketball experience.
Which conference will get the most teams to the Sweet 16?
DeCOURCY: The Big East will get at least three: Georgetown, Louisville and Connecticut -- and Marquette and Notre Dame have a shot with the right draw. The Pac-10 has a chance to get four, but Southern California is going to have to fight through a seed that probably won't be better than No. 6 and Washington State has to rediscover offensive consistency.
FAGAN: I don't necessarily think the Pac-10 is the strongest top-to-bottom conference in the country, but it has four teams -- UCLA, Stanford, Washington State and Southern California -- that easily could make it that far.
PALM: The Big East. It'll probably have five or six teams seeded in the 1-to-6 range, so there is a numeric advantage.
Do you consider this field of 34 at-large teams strong or weak?
DeCOURCY: I like the top teams, but the middle of the field is the least accomplished I can remember. There's an immense drop-off from the first 10 or 12 teams to the next level below, and there's a pretty fair difference between teams such as UCLA and Kansas and those in the second group. There will be teams that make this field that wouldn't have had a chance in most other years. The bubble teams just aren't good. There's no other way to put it.
BILAS: I don't ever consider it weak. I think it's a strong field, or at least a strong group of candidates. I don't think this has been a year of dominant teams, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have depth with good teams. There are a bunch of good teams.
PALM: Among the weakest I've seen. With two weeks left, I was putting about a dozen teams in my projected brackets that didn't really have tournament-quality profiles. There are always a handful like that, but this year is much worse.
