SirChaz said:
Excellent points K9 but there is an X-factor and that is Anquan himself. The conclusion assumes that Anquan will be the same player in different circumstances. While there is no way to measure or predict how good Anquan will be I think he will adapt and change his game as the circumstances evolve.
You are probably right that he will have some drop off of his numbers but I don't think his production will drop off that much. Plus, while there are more receivers, I would hope they have more opportunities and production from the entire offense.
Also in the victories didn't the cards rely more on the running game? Wouldn't his lower numbers be reflective of lower passing numbers overall?
I am
not saying that the guy is suddenly going to be bad. I just anticipate that he didn't shave 0.2 off his 40 over the summer. Honestly, I think he'll get about 80, 1200, and 8 TDs from Anquan, which would still place him in the Top 5 WRs in the NFC in 2003. Last season he was the only offensive weapon on a very, very bad team. This season, he's going to be about 1/3 of the offense on a mediocre one. Those are going to change his numbers.
Look at Hines Ward's numbers over the past three years, and you'll see Anquan's future. Bet on it.
Card's averaged 190 passing yards in victories. That's considerably less than their average in losses, but that's skewed because most of the losses were massive blowouts. Most teams would rather kill the clock, especially in the fourth quarter with a lead, by running the ball. I expect that the Cards will do the same, especially with a young QB.
Otherwise, I don't really understand the "X-factor" comment. Saying "Well, Anquan is Anquan" isn't--to me--a very convincing rebuttal to the five factors that I named. There are only so many balls to go around, and we didn't just cut Fitz a $17 million check to block downfield.