Underacheiving Offense?

[DWKB]

Just to show BC867 and anyone else curious about our underacheiving offense. Here are my projections up to last nights game with the Royals. The first line is the projected line (mine) and the second is the real stats for the batters. Raul Mondesi is not on the list.

Player	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
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Gonzale	514	78	69	31	157	30	4	5	0.305	0.397	0.560	0.957
	514	74	60	22	154	40	4	5	0.300	0.388	0.521	0.909
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Finley	430	44	66	18	115	23	3	10	0.267	0.335	0.460	0.796
	430	51	80	19	121	17	9	11	0.281	0.358	0.495	0.853
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Cintron	360	12	53	2	84	17	2	6	0.233	0.258	0.308	0.566
	360	26	28	11	111	19	4	2	0.308	0.355	0.475	0.830
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Spivey	310	39	67	8	83	17	4	8	0.268	0.350	0.426	0.775
	310	27	78	13	81	18	1	3	0.261	0.320	0.452	0.772
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Counsel	253	30	36	2	69	12	1	3	0.273	0.350	0.352	0.702
	253	36	29	3	60	6	2	9	0.237	0.332	0.312	0.644
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Hillenb	249	9	33	6	65	13	1	2	0.261	0.287	0.394	0.680
	249	11	33	12	65	15	1	0	0.261	0.292	0.474	0.766
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Moeller	238	21	59	7	57	12	1	1	0.239	0.301	0.387	0.688
	238	23	59	6	63	17	1	1	0.265	0.330	0.420	0.750
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Kata	239	12	52	3	44	9	3	5	0.184	0.223	0.285	0.508
	239	21	44	6	64	14	4	3	0.268	0.327	0.435	0.762
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Bautist	238	15	34	7	70	12	3	3	0.294	0.336	0.458	0.794
	238	17	42	2	64	10	2	3	0.269	0.318	0.353	0.671
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Overbay	230	19	52	6	62	15	1	1	0.270	0.325	0.422	0.747
	230	32	60	4	64	18	0	0	0.278	0.366	0.409	0.775
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Womack	219	14	28	2	58	8	3	13	0.265	0.309	0.356	0.665
	219	8	27	2	52	10	3	8	0.237	0.264	0.338	0.602
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Barajas	195	8	38	5	42	11	0	1	0.215	0.246	0.349	0.595
	195	9	38	3	41	14	0	0	0.210	0.245	0.328	0.573
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Baerga	192	11	26	4	53	9	1	3	0.276	0.315	0.396	0.711
	192	15	19	4	65	13	0	1	0.339	0.386	0.469	0.855
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McCrack	183	14	34	1	51	11	2	4	0.279	0.330	0.377	0.707
	183	14	32	0	40	5	2	4	0.219	0.274	0.268	0.542
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Dellucc	165	21	39	5	44	8	2	1	0.267	0.349	0.430	0.780
	165	19	45	2	40	11	3	9	0.242	0.321	0.382	0.702
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Hammock	145	10	40	2	28	6	1	1	0.193	0.245	0.290	0.535
	145	10	31	8	44	8	2	2	0.303	0.348	0.552	0.900
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William	134	8	23	5	36	7	1	1	0.269	0.310	0.448	0.758
	134	16	26	4	33	9	0	0	0.246	0.327	0.403	0.730
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Grace	126	19	11	3	35	8	1	0	0.278	0.372	0.429	0.801
	126	15	13	3	24	4	0	0	0.190	0.277	0.294	0.570
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Team	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	4420	384	760	117	1153	228	34	68	0.261	0.320	0.407	0.727
2003	4420	424	744	124	1186	248	38	61	0.268	0.332	0.426	0.758

 

[BC867]

Whether an offense is underachieving or not is determined by how many times it does better, or worse, than its opponent. It comes down to a balance of RUNS SCORED from some players and RBI's from others!

Plus the columns you don't see -- driving up the opponent's pitch count; starting a rally to put their Pitcher on the defensive; successfully moving a runner into scoring position; driving in runners when it will get you the lead so your Pitcher can stay in the game; etc.

It's easy to analyze. You see it in one column in the box score every game -- "RUNS". And you see it in your team's W-L record.

And if your team is struggling to stay above .500 . . . and dropping out of the post-season race . . . and is not the worst lineup in the league . . . with a great pitching staff . . . your team is underachieving!

And that comes down to the Manager! Is he done experimenting by the stretch drive? Does he get the most out of his players? Do they each know their role? Can they trust what their Manager says by the next game?

Our drop in the standings drives home the answer -- NO, NO, NO, NO!

 

[AZCB34]

DWKB, how did you arrive at your numbers? I mean, at a basic glance, you seem to be right in line with where alot of these guys are at.

Can I assume that that past couple years this team has been overachieving?

BTW, explain in English since I am not good with stats per se nor am I particularly good with the usage of stats of the calulation of them as you are doing.

Thanks. Just want to understand what I am looking at and how they came about.

 

[RLakin]

The biggest difference between the D-Backs of this year and the teams of 2001 and 2002 is the lack of HRs. And while most would say that Bob Brenly does not deserve the blame for his team not hitting home runs, he is, however, very much responsible for running out those in the organization that could. Reggie Sanders and Erubiel Durazo ring a bell? Had either been treated with the respect that Brenly showed for Mark Grace and Matt Williams this team would be (at least) 50 HRs better and, as a result, in the playoffs.
Go back and look at the statistical difference between the 2003 squad and the 2000 team, offensively. Most statistics are similar except HRs. And for those who want to sight the early injuries to Schilling and Johnson as a reason why the D-Backs have struggled, check out how superior this years (overall) pitching is as compared to the team in 2000. Showalter had that team 8 games above .500 and was fired. Brenly has this team hovering around .500 and receives little to no blame. Hypocrisy?

 

[DWKB]

Ok, this might be a long post as I'm going to try and answer 3 posts at once:


BC867:

Underachieving has nothing to do with how you do against you opponents. It has everything to do with how you are performing compared to how you should perform. Again, I'll bring up fielding the Chandler Little League offensive lineup instead of our DBacks. If they never win a game, are they underachieving? No they aren't cause we wouldn't expect them to based on what we know.

I've already shown that our individual player aren't underachieving so you go to the teams performance.

Well to take how our team has done and plug it into a Runs Created model like BaseRuns, our expected runs scored is 602.87 so far this season. What is our run total? 603?

Then you look at our record based on the pythagorean method and you get our expected record to be 73 - 67. What is our record to date? 71 - 69. So we're on track individually on offense based on projections, we're on track team wise on offense based on a Runs Created Model with our peripheral stats, and we're pretty damn close to being on track record wise with the amount of runs scored and allowed.

So, again, where are we underachieving?

AZCB34:

Without divulging too much of my method, I'll tell you that I use the past 5 years of performance, perform some regression and then perform an age adjustment based on each component stat. The component stats ( hits, BBs, 2Bs, etc..) are derived from the ABs in a rate form. So some player might see his 2Bs increase by 1 every 18 ABs based on what my final projection comes out to be. The rate stats (avg, obp, and slg) are derived from what the rate stats give me. So I can now plug in the number of ABs on a player, those are multiplied by a "rate" for each component stat and then the avg, obp, and slg, are figured by the component stats. I know this isn't the best explination but I hope it helps some. You can ask follow up questions if you'd like.

As for us overachieving the last couple of years, I think it's a slight yes. Last year for example, Spivey, McCracken, Bautista, and Moeller all hit far above their career levels. But a lot of the reason for the fall is --and I know DBack fans hate to here this-- because of age. Grace was due for a fall, so was Williams, so was Womack. Our production has fallen from 3B, 2B, 1B, RF, and even C this year because of personel changes, regression to career norms or old age.

RLarkin:

We are on pace to have 121 Runs less than last year (yes 121 Runs). We're also on pace to have only 18 HRs from last year. I can't see 18 HRs being the only contributer to our lacking offense. Even if they were all Grand Slams we'd only score an extra 72 Runs which would leave us still about 50 short. I think it has more to so with the 20 points in OBP we're losing this year compared to last which is really just the 127 less BBs we're on pace for this year compared to last (our avg is only 6 points less from last year). Our power hasn't completely left us as we're hitting more 2Bs and 3Bs than last year which is compensating for our lower HR total.

In Other Words, it's all about the BBs for us unfortunately.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by DWKB
norms or old age.

RLakin:

We are on pace to have 121 Runs less than last year (yes 121 Runs). We're also on pace to have only 18 HRs from last year. I can't see 18 HRs being the only contributer to our lacking offense. Even if they were all Grand Slams we'd only score an extra 72 Runs which would leave us still about 50 short. I think it has more to so with the 20 points in OBP we're losing this year compared to last which is really just the 127 less BBs we're on pace for this year compared to last (our avg is only 6 points less from last year). Our power hasn't completely left us as we're hitting more 2Bs and 3Bs than last year which is compensating for our lower HR total.

In Other Words, it's all about the BBs for us unfortunately.

I noticed that as well. It's as if this team is built in the anti-Beane (or, in my opinion, modern) fashion. Probably why I'm looking at Finley leading off tonight and Hillenbrand with his .310 OBP in the top half of the order as well. Hard to imagine why this team can't score any runs.

 

[AZZenny]

DWKB - your response to RLakin seems right on target - by that I mean it really fits my perspective and elaborates and fills it out.
My poor dog. wonder if she'll ever extinguish jumping around exuberantly when I yell "TAKE A WALK!!! TAKE A WALK!!!"

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by RLakin
The biggest difference between the D-Backs of this year and the teams of 2001 and 2002 is the lack of HRs. And while most would say that Bob Brenly does not deserve the blame for his team not hitting home runs, he is, however, very much responsible for running out those in the organization that could. Reggie Sanders and Erubiel Durazo ring a bell? Had either been treated with the respect that Brenly showed for Mark Grace and Matt Williams this team would be (at least) 50 HRs better and, as a result, in the playoffs.

You imply that Sanders and Durazo left because Brenly gave them no respect.

Sanders wanted to come back, but the D-Backs decided to go with Danny Bautista instead. Durazo had no choice. He was first year arbitration eligible this year, so he belonged to the D-Backs for the next three years. Didn't matter whether he felt unrespected or not.

If you are saying that the D-Backs should have kept these two guys, maybe I would agree, but that is still Joe Jr's call, not Brenly's. Brenly may have had some input, but the onus lies on Joe Jr.

 

[unc84steve]

I just want to confirm what others have said: the 2003 D'backs individual hitters are not underachieving based on what would have been reasonably expected at the beginning of the season. DWKB put such predictions out and most of our hitters have performed based on the track record one would have expected.

Things are a little more complex than "well, he had a good year for us before." One year flukes are suspect (Junior Spivey, Quinton McCracken) and older players decline. The 1985 Cards led the NL in scoring; if you started Ozzie Smith, Willie McGee, Vince Coleman & Jack Clark in 2003 and they failed to hit their weight would you say they underachieved? I wouldn't.

We can wonder how much imput Bob Brenly has into personnel decisions (I hope a lot). But the buck has to stop with Joe, Jr. and I think we're getting maximal production out of those players put on the roster.

 

[devilalum]

How can you say the Dbacks are underachieving when everybody and their dogs predicted they would have trouble scoring runs before the season started.

Its also easy to see now why they spent months pursuing Hillenbrand. He certainly seems to be the final piece of the puzzle.

 

[BC867]

Originally posted by devilalum
How can you say the Dbacks are underachieving when everybody and their dogs predicted they would have trouble scoring runs before the season started.

It was great watching our 7th inning rally vs. the Giants on Friday!

Bob Brenly was quoted as saying that he'd rather see 4 singles than 1 HR, the day before. It was a long time coming. Will it disappear in a couple of days?

If he knew, before the season started, that we would have trouble scoring runs, why has he been managing like an AL Manager all season -- sit back and wait for the HR?

That's why I lost confidence in him!
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It seems to be the Colangelo Curse. All those years under John MacLeod of the Phoenix Suns being OK-but-not-good-enough.

Regardless of the roster makeup, the players had to gear their strengths to the style of the Head Coach, rather than his coaching to their strengths.

For fans who put their hearts into our Phoenix home teams, this is nothing new!

 

[schillingfan]

BC, managers aren't usually the brightest bulbs in the world. In general they are conservative and slow to adapt to change. If something has worked for them in the past, they reluctantly cling to the belief that what's happening now is an aberration and that if they just "stay the course" it will revert to norm.

That is not often a bad philosophy, because baseball does tend to revert to the norm and a lot of slumps, etc. are small sample size. But in general most managers aren't smart enough to actually figure out if there is something that needs a strategic change. The D-Backs do lack the power hitters to sit back and wait for the 3 run homer - but the teams of 2001 and 2002 did hit a lot of homers and it worked for them. Go look at the numbers. This year, they lack the power and patience to walk then hit the homer, and the numbers reflect that. Brenly undoubtedly has been slow to recognize the change. But to hammer on him for managing like an AL manager is absurd, because more runs are scored that way and the last two years show it worked for the D-Backs.

I personally get tired of people complaining about Brenly because when you compare him with managers in general he is far more flexible, far less tight-assed, far less "by the book" and far less inclined to seek comfort with veterans. I should know because the Phillies manager is a "good baseball man" who's a by the book stupid clod. I much prefer to see Brenly changning, adapting, experimenting and being creative than see a stupid manager do the same stupid thing over and over again. I mean how many managers would give to ball to closer with a 1.75 WHIP and an ERA of 10+ since the all-star break and expect him not to blow a run one save. He will, he did. But "the book" says go to your closer and you need a closer and we need an experiencec closer and yada, yada baseball thinking. Brenly is not afraid to at least give kids a chance.