Underrated/Overrated 2012 Offseason Moves

[kerouac9]

Underrated: Replacing P Dave Zastudil. Zastudli was a complete disaster as a punter this season, especially down the stretch. Replacing him with a reliable veteran is absolutely essential. If there's one thing that the success of defensive teams has shown, it's the necessity of a strong kicking game. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers.

Overrated: The acquisition of a "true #2 wideout". Cardinals fans poring over the list of pending free agent wide receivers are bound for disappointment come mid-March when free agency opens. Steel yourselves for strum and drang on the ASFN message board as one pass catcher after another finds new homes or returns to their old ones. The Cards will likely snag one veteran and draft another one, but don't look for marquee names that will sell jerseys. Teams who let veteran receivers leave in free agency rarely regret the decision.

Underrated: The return of a healthy Beanie Wells. Beanie was a force to be reckoned with while playing with an injury nearly the entire season. Beanie ran with great power and physicality while lacking great lateral agility and speed. If Beanie can come into camp 100% and established as the Arizona Cardinals' workhorse back, he could rush for 1200 yards or more.

Overrated: The return of a healthy Ryan Williams. This Cardinals fan is hoping that Ryan Williams is slow to work himself back into playing shape. Williams could be a good change-of-pace back, but the coaching staff and scouting department are heavily invested in the controversial second-round choice of the 2011 NFL draft. They'll be looking to play him and highlight his abilities. Unfortunately, this limits the effectiveness of Beanie Wells, who requires 16-20 carries a game to be successful. The Arizona Cardinals are better if Ryan Williams is limited to 8-12 touches a game.

Underrated: Improving depth along the defensive line. The Cards got effective play from Vonnie Holliday and the better end of the Tim Hightower trade. But both Nick Eason and Holliday are getting up in years. Look for the Cards to invest a mid-round draft choice on a developmental defensive lineman to help take the pressure off the veterans and pair with David Carter for an effective second-wave.

Overrated: Acquiring a free agent inside linebacker. The Cards didn't invest $25 million in Steven Bradley because they expected him to get challenged for his backup spot in training camp. The Cards have three starting-caliber inside linebackers in Bradley, Washington, and Lenon. The Cards may look to add depth and competition with a mid- to late-round draft pick, but don't look for that "thumper" in free agency.

Underrated: Bringing back Clark Haggans. Clark Haggans is a great veteran and locker room presence. He's not afraid or unwilling to play special teams or give up his starting job. The Cards would be wise to even overpay a little to bring Clark Haggans back as an additional coach on the sidelines and occasionally on the field.

Overrated: A full offseason for both John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. Arizona Cardinals coaches would be wise not to put the offensive eggs in the basket of either returning quarterback. Both players should be treated as easily replaceable and upgradable parts that have to be worked around instead of enabled. The Cards aren't going to get better by continuing to pass the ball at the rate they have the last four games of the season (46.75 pass calls per game, counting scrambles and sacks!!). The offensive staff needs to focus on ways to keep the ball out of the hands of both their subpar signal callers. They could start by watching tape of the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, the 2008 Baltimore Ravens, and the 2011 San Francisco 49ers.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I agree with all those.

I think the Cardinals need to do something at WR and ILB, but I do agree that it won't take big names to fill the roles that need to be filled.

ILB is not even an issue if they re-sign Haggans, and Lenon. Both of whom I am fine with bringing back next year.

 

[Shane]

I'll add #3 back to overrated. Not because he didnt play well he did. Beanie coming back healthy would be great. Problem is that he is likely to be hurt again early in the season. The guy just cant stay healthy. Two years in a row with nagging knee injuries. Year before that it was an ankle and shoulder IIRC. Due to this makes #4 underrated not overrated.

 

[Shane]

Oh and who knows Quan Sturdivant may get a light that comes on at ILB this year. One can always hope.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Good list, I agree with most of it.

Totally agree with you RE: punter. Both San Fran and Seattle should be contrast enough to show the importance in terms of field position a good punter brings. As we've suddenly turned into a defense and field position team, this is a key area for improvement.

It's a catch 22 with Beanie. He does become more impactful when he gets a ton of carries, but then he also gets nicked up and becomes far less effective. (See 2nd half of the season)

I anticipate he'll have a good year next year, but its absolutely essential that Ryan Williams is healthy and can carry part of the load at RB. If for no other reason than to keep Beanie healthy.

Haggans must be re-signed, at least as depth or until someone supplants his as starter. He's not a great starter, but adequate and knows the system.

I dread another wasted year unless Kolb improves dramatically and somehow manages to stay healthy (something he's never done) or Skelton finds a way to improve his accuracy.

Until we get consistent qb play, either through the draft or FA, I fear we'll be looking at mediocre results, and no meaningful chance at contending.

 

[Mulli]

A healthy Beanie Wells cannot be overrated. Whether or not, that is possible, if he is healthy, that makes a big difference.

And which teams who signed a veteran FA WR this year benefitted? Can't think of many.

 

[Pariah]

I agree with most of it.

The Cards didn't invest $25 million in Steven Bradley because they expected him to get challenged for his backup spot in training camp.

With this, though, I don't. No, the Cards didn't sign him to that contract EXPECTING him to be challenged, but they also expected him to play a lot better. Things change.

 

[kerouac9]

Good list, I agree with most of it.

Totally agree with you RE: punter. Both San Fran and Seattle should be contrast enough to show the importance in terms of field position a good punter brings. As we've suddenly turned into a defense and field position team, this is a key area for improvement.

It's a catch 22 with Beanie. He does become more impactful when he gets a ton of carries, but then he also gets nicked up and becomes far less effective. (See 2nd half of the season)

I anticipate he'll have a good year next year, but its absolutely essential that Ryan Williams is healthy and can carry part of the load at RB. If for no other reason than to keep Beanie healthy.

Haggans must be re-signed, at least as depth or until someone supplants his as starter. He's not a great starter, but adequate and knows the system.

I dread another wasted year unless Kolb improves dramatically and somehow manages to stay healthy (something he's never done) or Skelton finds a way to improve his accuracy.

Until we get consistent qb play, either through the draft or FA, I fear we'll be looking at mediocre results, and no meaningful chance at contending.

In the NFC, making the playoffs means that you have a meaningful chance of contending. The AFC is different, since if you aren't the Pats, Colts, or Steelers you have no chance of making a Super Bowl.

But the NFC has had a different Super Bowl entrant the past 10 years or something. The 7-9 Seattle Seahawks won a playoff game last year. You can make an argument for every NFC Playoff team to have a path to the Super Bowl this year.

You build your team to win your division first and foremost; not to win 12 games every year and be a one-seed. That's one reason that it's so frustrating to have seen Whis try and come out and light up the scoreboard offensively the last two seasons. Score 24 points a game in this division and you're in the playoffs. Why are you trying so hard to put 35 up there?

 

[40yearfan]

In the NFC, making the playoffs means that you have a meaningful chance of contending. The AFC is different, since if you aren't the Pats, Colts, or Steelers you have no chance of making a Super Bowl.

But the NFC has had a different Super Bowl entrant the past 10 years or something. The 7-9 Seattle Seahawks won a playoff game last year. You can make an argument for every NFC Playoff team to have a path to the Super Bowl this year.

You build your team to win your division first and foremost; not to win 12 games every year and be a one-seed. That's one reason that it's so frustrating to have seen Whis try and come out and light up the scoreboard offensively the last two seasons. Score 24 points a game in this division and you're in the playoffs. Why are you trying so hard to put 35 up there?

To reduce stress on the fans and not have to win every game in overtime.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

But the NFC has had a different Super Bowl entrant the past 10 years or something. The 7-9 Seattle Seahawks won a playoff game last year. You can make an argument for every NFC Playoff team to have a path to the Super Bowl this year.

You build your team to win your division first and foremost; not to win 12 games every year and be a one-seed. That's one reason that it's so frustrating to have seen Whis try and come out and light up the scoreboard offensively the last two seasons. Score 24 points a game in this division and you're in the playoffs. Why are you trying so hard to put 35 up there?

True, you can make an argument for every NFC playoff team, but I think it's pretty obvious that it'll be either NO or GB. Sure, with a one game playoff, anything can happen, but this is a passing league, and is trending toward that even more so as the years go on.

Winning the division is nice, and as a Cards fan, I'd be thrilled any year we do. That being said, being a contender year in and out should be the ultimate goal, and that's very difficult to do without a top 10 qb. We'll be wandering in limbo until we get it, just like every other also ran.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

In the underrated category, I would include the re-signing of Richard Marshall who adds versatility and toughness to the DB corps, and the return of a healthy Greg Toler.

 

[Duckjake]

Teams who let veteran receivers leave in free agency rarely regret the decision.

What about teams that trade veteran receivers?

 

[SuperSpck]

Underrated: Replacing P Dave Zastudil. Zastudli was a complete disaster as a punter this season, especially down the stretch. Replacing him with a reliable veteran is absolutely essential. If there's one thing that the success of defensive teams has shown, it's the necessity of a strong kicking game. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers.

1) Ben Graham did a great job at pinning the ball inside the 20 but clearly lacked the needed ability to do a more consistent job without the benefit of field advantage.
2) Zastudil trades the ability to continually pin inside short distances with a more balanced overall punting ability, combing (but not excelling) in distance and direction.
He, as a punter, not as a punt coverage unit (who were good), was average for the NFL. No better or worse. Colquit, Lee, and Lechler had great years and are the pinnacle of what a team wants in a punter. Lechler and Sauerbrun specifically are two of the most amazing in recent NFL history.
There was nothing about Dave's game that has me too eager to look for his replacement. Bring in competition, because it's cheap and always a good idea, but to call any punter overrated is just silly. Perpetually underrated by default.

Overrated:Teams who let veteran receivers leave in free agency rarely regret the decision.

Truth!

Underrated: The return of a healthy Beanie Wells. Beanie was a force to be reckoned with while playing with an injury nearly the entire season. Beanie ran with great power and physicality while lacking great lateral agility and speed. If Beanie can come into camp 100% and established as the Arizona Cardinals' workhorse back, he could rush for 1200 yards or more.

Bean will be a FA in 2014. Just enough time to get us psyched. I need convincing that RBs in the modern NFL are worth not only a 1st round pick, but are worth the millions of $ they command. Spend that money gambling on the line to block for them, and even if it doesn't pan out, it's money better spent.
That said, I spent a lot of time looking at RBs in Beanie's class and I was floored by how much he did with how little in college. Too bad it didn't change for him in the pros.

Underrated: Improving depth along the defensive line. The Cards got effective play from Vonnie Holliday and the better end of the Tim Hightower trade. But both Nick Eason and Holliday are getting up in years. Look for the Cards to invest a mid-round draft choice on a developmental defensive lineman to help take the pressure off the veterans and pair with David Carter for an effective second-wave.

I think Carter can be one of those guys, just his the wall hard and fast. Agree that the team isn't done at the spot. Hope Holiday comes back, as a depth player and as a man in the lockeroom, his value returns what the expense is.

Overrated: Acquiring a free agent inside linebacker.

Rush Linebacker is the new Mike. Evolution of the game says the ability to disrupt the QB has greater value than Mike.

Overrated:Arizona Cardinals coaches would be wise not to put the offensive eggs in the basket of either returning quarterback. Both players should be treated as easily replaceable and upgradable parts that have to be worked around instead of enabled. The Cards aren't going to get better by continuing to pass the ball at the rate they have the last four games of the season (46.75 pass calls per game, counting scrambles and sacks!!). The offensive staff needs to focus on ways to keep the ball out of the hands of both their subpar signal callers. They could start by watching tape of the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, the 2008 Baltimore Ravens, and the 2011 San Francisco 49ers.

I don't disagree, but team have to pass to get the lead and run to protect it.
Pass plays per game isn't a good measuring stick because game flow influences the number. RB health does too. O-line effectiveness. The D you're facing, blah blah. My point is that they've only passed a little more than outside the norm and there hasn't been compelling reason not to.

The team likes Rich, John, and Kevin and unless there's a shocking name available in draft or FA, don't plan on any new names this offseason.

Oh and who knows Quan Sturdivant may get a light that comes on at ILB this year. One can always hope.

He's a interesting guy. Hoping he'll be an influence in a red uniform next year.

In the underrated category, I would include the re-signing of Richard Marshall who adds versatility and toughness to the DB corps, and the return of a healthy Greg Toler.

Can't count on a re-sign until it happens and you can't count on a guy to come back healthy until he does. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Like you though, my fingers are crossed.

 

[SuperSpck]

What about teams that trade veteran receivers?

Name a team that should regret the move.

 

[Duckjake]

Oh and who knows Quan Sturdivant may get a light that comes on at ILB this year. One can always hope.

He's a interesting guy. Hoping he'll be an influence in a red uniform next year.

Forget Sturdivant. I messed up and wrote about how I thought he was a good pick and would be our replacement for Gerald Hayes for the next 5 years. He's done in the NFL.

 

[Phrazbit]

In the underrated category, I would include the re-signing of Richard Marshall who adds versatility and toughness to the DB corps, and the return of a healthy Greg Toler.

I dont get the expectations people have for Tolar's return. In 2010 he was part of the problem. The guy was a decent tacker but absolutely dreadful in coverage.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

I dont get the expectations people have for Tolar's return. In 2010 he was part of the problem. The guy was a decent tacker but absolutely dreadful in coverage.

.... because his style of play fits the new scheme...

 

[BigRedArk]

Underrated: The return of a healthy Beanie Wells. Beanie was a force to be reckoned with while playing with an injury nearly the entire season. Beanie ran with great power and physicality while lacking great lateral agility and speed. If Beanie can come into camp 100% and established as the Arizona Cardinals' workhorse back, he could rush for 1200 yards or more.

Overrated: The return of a healthy Ryan Williams. This Cardinals fan is hoping that Ryan Williams is slow to work himself back into playing shape. Williams could be a good change-of-pace back, but the coaching staff and scouting department are heavily invested in the controversial second-round choice of the 2011 NFL draft. They'll be looking to play him and highlight his abilities. Unfortunately, this limits the effectiveness of Beanie Wells, who requires 16-20 carries a game to be successful. The Arizona Cardinals are better if Ryan Williams is limited to 8-12 touches a game.

What if, and at this point it's a big if, Whis does decide to stop trying to light up the scoreboard like he has the last 2 yrs and we become a team that rushes the ball significantly more? Wouldn't a healthy Ryan Williams become more underrated if done so without taking carries away from Beanie?

Lots of if's there I know.

Also what about adding as an underrated -more consistent TE play (with the exception of Jeff King)? Or more production from TE maybe or some such.

Heap is getting old. How much has got left in the tank?

I like Dray but is he being used correctly and is he getting enough of a chance to contribute to the offense?

Housler? How much potential is there? (I know K9 that you have posted about him but I don't remember the details of it).

 

[kerouac9]

True, you can make an argument for every NFC playoff team, but I think it's pretty obvious that it'll be either NO or GB. Sure, with a one game playoff, anything can happen, but this is a passing league, and is trending toward that even more so as the years go on.

Winning the division is nice, and as a Cards fan, I'd be thrilled any year we do. That being said, being a contender year in and out should be the ultimate goal, and that's very difficult to do without a top 10 qb. We'll be wandering in limbo until we get it, just like every other also ran.

People can repeat this over and over, and while the NFL really wishes that were the case, it's not.

Look no further than the 2010 postseason. Who won wildcard weekend? Was it the high-flying New Orleans Saints? No, they got grounded by the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks after getting ground out by Marshawn Lynch.

What about Aaron Rodgers passing all over the Philadelphia Eagles? Yes, Rodgers passed for 3 TDs, but only 180 yards while the Packers rushed for 138 yards. In fact, the Eagles passed for nearly 300 yards but came out on the wrong end.

Maybe things were different in the AFC. It IS the home of the League's best quarterbacks. First, Peyton Manning got knocked out of the playoffs by being outdueled by Mark Sanchez. Baltimore rushed the ball 40 times against just 34 passes to defeat Kansas City at Arrowhead.

The next week Sanchez outdueled Tom Brady at his own house, and the Chicago Bears ran the ball 45 times (!!!) in defeating the Seattle Seahawks.

To advance to the Super Bowl, Aaron Rodgers only went 17 of 30 for 244 yards and 0 TDs against 2 picks. But the Packers did run the ball 32 times for 120 yards and 2 TDs to make the Big Game.

 

[kerouac9]

1) Ben Graham did a great job at pinning the ball inside the 20 but clearly lacked the needed ability to do a more consistent job without the benefit of field advantage.
2) Zastudil trades the ability to continually pin inside short distances with a more balanced overall punting ability, combing (but not excelling) in distance and direction.
He, as a punter, not as a punt coverage unit (who were good), was average for the NFL. No better or worse. Colquit, Lee, and Lechler had great years and are the pinnacle of what a team wants in a punter. Lechler and Sauerbrun specifically are two of the most amazing in recent NFL history.
There was nothing about Dave's game that has me too eager to look for his replacement. Bring in competition, because it's cheap and always a good idea, but to call any punter overrated is just silly. Perpetually underrated by default.

I didn't call him overrated. Zastudil sucks. Ben Graham was no great shakes, either, but Zastudil was awful. The Cards were below average in every aspect of the special teams game last season by FootballOutsiders metrics except punt returns, where they were nearly twice as good as every other team in the NFL.

The Cards lost 4.5 points on the season because of an inadequate punting game. We weren't the worst in the NFL, but we were below average.

Zastudil wasn't very good for Cleveland before he was injured, and he wasn't very good for us. There's really not much that's going to be out there. Thankfully, there's a former Pittsburgh punter in Daniel Sepulveda that we can bring in.

 

[MrYeahBut]

[ Overrated: A full offseason for both John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. Arizona Cardinals coaches would be wise not to put the offensive eggs in the basket of either returning quarterback. Both players should be treated as easily replaceable and upgradable parts that have to be worked around instead of enabled. The Cards aren't going to get better by continuing to pass the ball at the rate they have the last four games of the season (46.75 pass calls per game, counting scrambles and sacks!!). The offensive staff needs to focus on ways to keep the ball out of the hands of both their subpar signal callers. They could start by watching tape of the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, the 2008 Baltimore Ravens, and the 2011 San Francisco 49ers.

When you think about the teams you listed and how they were successful they basically 'hid' their QB by having an offense that didn't completely rely on them. I think that's what you meant when you said they worked around them, especially this years 9er team.

For the Cards to do this, ie hide whoever the chosen QB is, to my mind it would be underrated to fix the Oline. They would have to be able to run block extrememly well and pass block effectively enough to allow at least time for short and intermediate pass routes to develop. I don't see any other way for the Cards to be a consistant playoff team without having some strategy akin to this if they are stuck with average quarterback play. The musical chair approach to fixing the Oline just hasn't worked at all.

 

[SuperSpck]

I didn't call him overrated.

It's called reading comprehension. It comes and goes with me.
I got your point, just crossed the wires on the format. My bad.

Just curious, what measurement standards are we going by? I'll admit after the ball gets fielded 9 times out of 10 I've forgotten the play. Are we talking hangtime, direction, bad shanks (all of the above)?

I've always thought of the Cardinal return and coverage teams as above average, does FO account for the separation between the specialist and the unit?

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I dont get the expectations people have for Tolar's return. In 2010 he was part of the problem. The guy was a decent tacker but absolutely dreadful in coverage.

i don't recall that at all. In fact, I thought he stuck to his man pretty good in coverage and is only going to get better with more PT. In 2010, I think it was more the scheme as the reason for DB's not looking all that great. By no means is he a lock, but I think he'll be a very good starting CB next year as long he fully recovers.

 

[desertdawg]

Nice over and under K-neezy. I too think we need to punt our punter.
In the run game though, I think we will feature one of our backs every week, probably just because one will always be gimpy but theoretically we can scheme their different styles against different defenses. Beanie does need a lot of touches to control a game, but he gets banged up whenever he gets said touches.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Name a team that should regret the move.

The Arizona Cardinals.

With Boldin in the mix, I think we make the playoffs this year.