Updated Depth Chart

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

This all makes sense, the opposing view would note that the team was 13-18 with Ayton pre-bubble and the Suns have no credible third creator.

True. I think last years squad Ayton was somewhere between 13-18 pre bubble and 21-18 with bubble. Average the two and they get a 40-42 82 game forecast. Then add in all the factors I listed and I think a 10 game jump is reasonable. That’s assuming health, which is admittedly a wildcard.

right now I think you point out my bud seat concern, a lack of a legit third scoring creator. If Payne is even 60% of what he was in the bubble that becomes big for the bench.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I don't think anyone would suggest they wouldn't expect this team to take another leap forward... question is, how big will that leap be? And, what if Ayton doesn't take a sizeable leap forward? What if he is simply an 18/19ppg 10/11reb guy?
I'm really curious what expectations people have for Deandre... and what really should be our expectations.

The numbers don’t matter much. His rim defense is vastly more important. As is his perimeter defense and foul rate. If he gets better in those three latter categories and averages 15 and 12 I’ll be much happier than an empty 25-12.

 

[Suns_fan69]

Guards


Bigs
In: Smith, Jones
Out: Baynes, Diallo

What we lose in Baynes screen-setting and pick and pop game, we gain in youth and potential with Smith. If he can get on the court, he should provide some floor stretching with the ability to shoot from distance, but he also provides the ability to roll or slip the screen for an easy shot at the rim working with Paul and Booker. He'll add shot blocking and rebounding compared to Baynes, but Baynes was able to make up for a lack of shot blocking by drawing offensive fouls.

I was surprised by Diallo's soft touch around the hoop and jumper, but he was not much of a factor for us aside from spot minutes. Hopefully Jones can provide high energy and toughness if given minutes at the 5. If any good can come from Jones it would be his eagerness to dunk everything potentially rubbing off on Ayton a little.

You missed Kaminsky (not sure if that was intentional given Franks's lackluster contributions) but the one thing that we also lose with Baynes, and to a lesser extent, Kaminsky, is experienced big depth. If Ayton or Saric are out for a stretch of time it looks real thin at the 5 spot. It's possible Smith or Jones can step in and contribute, but that's a lot to ask of them.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Guards
In: Paul, Moore
Out: Rubio, Jerome

Provided Paul can at least meet Rubio's fairly low bar of availability, we have significantly upgraded our guard position. Jerome didn't belong on the court last year and he is being replaced with a savvy vet with a nice shooting stroke from three and soft touch from inside. Both players are strong defenders.

Wings
In: Crowder, Nader
Out: Oubre

While we lose Oubre's passion and his ability to create his own shot, we are gaining a gritty wing defender capable of guarding 3s and 4s. He also has the ability to hit the open 3, especially from the corner and can be trusted to play within the system. Nader's ability to contribute remains to be seen.

Bigs
In: Smith, Jones
Out: Baynes, Diallo

What we lose in Baynes screen-setting and pick and pop game, we gain in youth and potential with Smith. If he can get on the court, he should provide some floor stretching with the ability to shoot from distance, but he also provides the ability to roll or slip the screen for an easy shot at the rim working with Paul and Booker. He'll add shot blocking and rebounding compared to Baynes, but Baynes was able to make up for a lack of shot blocking by drawing offensive fouls.

I was surprised by Diallo's soft touch around the hoop and jumper, but he was not much of a factor for us aside from spot minutes. Hopefully Jones can provide high energy and toughness if given minutes at the 5. If any good can come from Jones it would be his eagerness to dunk everything potentially rubbing off on Ayton a little.

I think the only real net negative with the above is baynes for smith/jones. And only because of the stretch where baynes was dropping treys like he was the long lost third splash brother and Jalen is too you g to be counted in for anything.

losing oubres ability to create offense is, imo, offset by not only crowders defense but also his versatility in being able to play PF at a higher level than oubre. I think this is a net even swap, with a little lean towards crowder but only because his reputation helps shift perception of suns towards a defensive team alongside bridges, Paul, Moore and Carter.

guards it’s just a big win.

 

[Folster]

You missed Kaminsky (not sure if that was intentional given Franks's lackluster contributions) but the one thing that we also lose with Baynes, and to a lesser extent, Kaminsky, is experienced big depth. If Ayton or Saric are out for a stretch of time it looks real thin at the 5 spot. It's possible Smith or Jones can step in and contribute, but that's a lot to ask of them.

I knew I was missing someone. Thanks. I updated it and added a blurb.

 

[Cheesebeef]

44-28 sounds very high to me. Keep in mind that this roster's top three players (Booker, Paul, Ayton) have all demonstrated that they have difficulty staying in the lineup. The Suns might win at a 44-28 pace when all three are healthy, but my guess is we'll have no more than 50 games this season when that's the case, and that's a pretty optimistic estimate.

im in this camp.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Frank also had his moments of interior bucket getting mostly on his own which was pretty valuable. He more than cancelled that out most of the time with his putrid defense.

 

[1Sun]

If nobody picks them up and they're desperate, who says no if we drop Okobo and pick up Reggie Jackson or Isaiah Thomas at the minimum or even the BAE for a couple years?

Okay with Reggie Jackson, no to Isaiah Thomas, who I believe was a cancer while he was here, and who I believe would be a cancer again.

 

[SunsTzu]

im in this camp.

It will be interesting to see what the season looks like from a health perspective. In a condensed schedule even minor ailments could cost a player more games than it would under normal scheduling. Then there is the question if players will be healthier from having so much extra time off this year, or if the rust will lead to more non-contact injuries if they haven't been taking care of their bodies.

 

[1Sun]

I think the only real net negative with the above is baynes for smith/jones. And only because of the stretch where baynes was dropping treys like he was the long lost third splash brother and Jalen is too you g to be counted in for anything.

losing oubres ability to create offense is, imo, offset by not only crowders defense but also his versatility in being able to play PF at a higher level than oubre. I think this is a net even swap, with a little lean towards crowder but only because his reputation helps shift perception of suns towards a defensive team alongside bridges, Paul, Moore and Carter.

guards it’s just a big win.

Wings are also a net negative. It all comes down to how much of a net positive the guards are.

 

[Hoop Head]

Wings are also a net negative. It all comes down to how much of a net positive the guards are.

How are wings a negative? They lost Oubre but added Crowder. Offensively that is a negative but Crowder is the better 3pt shooter and much better defender.

Bridges and Cam will see more playing time also like in the bubble.

 

[Raze]

Just getting 25 more games from Ayton alone should result in a lot more wins.

I suspect Ayton moves up to 21 and 11-12 rebs and continues his growth on defense. I don’t think we will ever see an explosion of growth with him. But gradual growth is expected. And fewer on court lapses with Paul in his grill.

Agreed.

Going by last years numbers the Suns were 20-18 (.526) with Ayton and 14-21 (.400) without. Which is, of course, a huge difference (Going from 8th in the West to 13th).

With the addition of a healthy Paul and Crowder, and expected improvement from Book, Ayton, Bridges, and Cam we should win more games (I'd guess above .610). The key is keeping Paul healthy.

 

[1Sun]

How are wings a negative? They lost Oubre but added Crowder. Offensively that is a negative but Crowder is the better 3pt shooter and much better defender.

Bridges and Cam will see more playing time also like in the bubble.

Take away the anomaly of the bubble, and Oubre shot better than Crowder from 3 last year...by a significant margin. Career-wise, they are within 1.1 percent of each other.

And Crowder might have been the better defender 3 years ago, but not now.

And Oubre is more athletic and younger.

And Cam is not a wing.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

True. I think last years squad Ayton was somewhere between 13-18 pre bubble and 21-18 with bubble. Average the two and they get a 40-42 82 game forecast. Then add in all the factors I listed and I think a 10 game jump is reasonable. That’s assuming health, which is admittedly a wildcard.

right now I think you point out my bud seat concern, a lack of a legit third scoring creator. If Payne is even 60% of what he was in the bubble that becomes big for the bench.

Ayton being suspended had a ripple effect IMO. It forced Baynes (though he played well when filling in) to play much more than he should have and that led to injuries.

A healthy Ayton means not only that we get his production, but a good chance Baynes remains healthy and we get to see less of Kaminsky than we had to see. All of that would have likely led to more wins.

 

[JCSunsfan]

How are wings a negative? They lost Oubre but added Crowder. Offensively that is a negative but Crowder is the better 3pt shooter and much better defender.

Bridges and Cam will see more playing time also like in the bubble.

Oubre, Bridges, Johnson were last years rotation.
Bridges, Crowder, Johnson, Nader this year's rotation.

To me, Bridges is better than Oubre, so any minutes that transfer from Oubre to Bridges is a plus.
Crowder is a wash in effectiveness with Oubre primarily because Crowder gives a different look and more versatility.
Johnson is improved over last year's version of himself.
Nader is just depth.

This year is a wash or slightly better IMO.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Oubre, Bridges, Johnson were last years rotation.
Bridges, Crowder, Johnson, Nader this year's rotation.

To me, Bridges is better than Oubre, so any minutes that transfer from Oubre to Bridges is a plus.
Crowder is a wash in effectiveness with Oubre primarily because Crowder gives a different look and more versatility.
Johnson is improved over last year's version of himself.
Nader is just depth.

This year is a wash or slightly better IMO.

I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Nader as depth. He played 16mpg in 55 games for a 44-28 team. I’m not saying he’s great or anything, but that’s fairly significant. He played more total minutes than Dort, for example. And he was 26 last year.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So. Outside of Damian Jones and Ayton, Devin Booker is the worst 3 point shooter on the team.

 

[Proximo]

How are wings a negative? They lost Oubre but added Crowder. Offensively that is a negative but Crowder is the better 3pt shooter and much better defender.

Bridges and Cam will see more playing time also like in the bubble.

Crowder is not really a better 3 point shooter. He might be a slightly better defender. What he does improve is flexibility he can realistically play both the 3 and 4.

 

[Mainstreet]

We need something from Flex.

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[Proximo]

So. Outside of Damian Jones and Ayton, Devin Booker is the worst 3 point shooter on the team.

You know that is a ridiculous statement right? We are talking about a guy that won, placed 2nd and 3rd in the three point contest the last 3 years.

His problem is he is not taking many open 3's, and that he is far more tired than most other players from the amount of ball handling he is doing. With Paul in the lineup his percentage is going up this year.

I am going to guess it will be around 38 - 39%

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Crowder is not really a better 3 point shooter. He might be a slightly better defender. What he does improve is flexibility he can realistically play both the 3 and 4.

Crowder is a significantly better defender than Oubre. It’s not close.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

You know that is a ridiculous statement right? We are talking about a guy that won, placed 2nd and 3rd in the three point contest the last 3 years.

His problem is he is not taking many open 3's, and that he is far more tired than most other players from the amount of ball handling he is doing. With Paul in the lineup his percentage is going up this year.

I am going to guess between 38 - 39%

Booker takes the highest degree of difficulty on his 3s. More pull-ups and longer ones.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You know that is a ridiculous statement right? We are talking about a guy that won, placed 2nd and 3rd in the three point contest the last 3 years.

His problem is he is not taking many open 3's, and that he is far more tired than most other players from the amount of ball handling he is doing. With Paul in the lineup his percentage is going up this year.

I am going to guess it will be around 38 - 39%

I knew that would get a rise out of you all. Its just the raw numbers. That's all. It is an interesting stat. Not a knock on Book. Its a testament to the type of players Jones has assembled this off-season. Everyone can shoot it seems.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

You know that is a ridiculous statement right? We are talking about a guy that won, placed 2nd and 3rd in the three point contest the last 3 years.

His problem is he is not taking many open 3's, and that he is far more tired than most other players from the amount of ball handling he is doing. With Paul in the lineup his percentage is going up this year.

I am going to guess it will be around 38 - 39%

He was nearly 40% on catch and shoot 3s last season. That being said he is quite streaky from there and needs to figure out how to get his great stroke to result in better numbers. There is no good reason he doesn't shoot at least close to 40%.

 

[Chaplin]

I knew that would get a rise out of you all. Its just the raw numbers. That's all. It is an interesting stat. Not a knock on Book. Its a testament to the type of players Jones has assembled this off-season. Everyone can shoot it seems.

Yeah, volume is important in the context of such a stat.