The Suns were 26-39 pre-bubble and 13-18 with Ayton (so slightly better). They were -1.3 in RTG splits pre-bubble. They weren’t good last year; they were okay. I do think the bubble did reveal at least one interesting possibility that remains to be seen.
Most people say the reason they weren’t better came down to depth: when the starters played they were great and the team collapsed when the bench took the floor. That’s not wrong per se, but it’s also true that an even better starting line-up acts as ballast to a unstable bench.
The Suns pre-bubble starters were Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Ayton/Baynes, Bridges, and Kaminsky (13).
This season figures to have Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, and Ayton (Saric if there are issues with Ayton) as the predominant starters. Kelly Oubre’s best trait was ability to get buckets, but he did so at a pedestrian 56% TS clip and he created no offense for others 1.6 ast/36. Kelly was the #2 scoring option. This year it will be Paul. He’s a career 58% (59% since his 4th year) TS and was 61% last year. He’s also achieved that number was a far bigger load and responsibility as a #1 option many years. He also involves his teammates at an elite level (10 ast/36 career, a shade under 8 last year). I think of Paul as more of Oubre’s replacement than Rubio’s.
Oubre’s other primary replacement as far as MPG and role will be Crowder. Kelly was 94th out of 99 qualifying small forwards in DRPM. Crowder is regarded as a top defender and the tape backs this up, as does the fact that he routinely is tasked with guarding a team’s top big wing. Defense is very much about plugging leaks and effort: Crowder should fill a lot of leaks that Kelly (who tried hard at least) frequently sprung. Paul is even better than Rubio (a top10 PG defender) at defense. Even though he’s short, post him up at your peril. Ayton is very good at defense, and Bridges is great. Booker is improving every year and much less of a liability than before.
I have concerns about bench creation, and I also worry that Monty may not be a good enough coach to rectify line-up issues given some of the crap he threw out last year. That being said, much like the year before, the Suns have trimmed a lot of fat. No more Frank minutes is huge. Even Baynes was a pretty big liability after his hot start. 1,500 minutes from Okobo/Tyler Johnson/Jerome going to Jevon/Cam Payne/Moore is an improvement as well. It’s on the margins, but every little bit matters.