Updated Tournament Watch!

[AsUdUdE]

Much has been said about the PAC-10 never getting a 9-9 team into the tournament... While this has been true in years past, I actually think 3 maybe 4 teams from the PAC-10 will get in with 9-9 conference record... The PAC-10 is seen as the toughest conference BY FAR in the Nation, and the fact that 8 teams out of the 10 can make an argument to go Dancing, that will have major pull on the committee... Look at what each team has left

USC- 17-9 (8-6)- Have to play @UofA, @ASU, Cal, Stanford... Its very possible they lose 3 out of those four and finish at 9-9, finishing 18-12, going into the PAC-10 tournament

Arizona- 17-10 (7-7)- Have USC and UCLA at home before finishing at th Oregon schools. I see a split at home, and after blowing out OSU, losing to Oregon on the road the last game of the season, on Senior Night in Eugene, the place will be CRAZY, and Arizona will finish 19-12, 9-9 in conference.

ASU- 17-9 (7-7)- Also finishes with UCLA and USC at home and the OregonSchools on the road. I also think they will split at home and on the road, losing to Oregon before finishing the season with a win at OSU. They will end the season at 19-11 and 9-9 in conference.

Oregon- 15-12 (6-9)- Play @OSU, before playing the Last two games of the year at home. Knowing if they finish the year at 8-10 in conference they would need to most likely win the PAC-10 Tournament to get in, they will be playing with a TON of energy and effort in their final two home games, I see them winning all three and finishing 18-12, 9-9 in the conference.

California- Has the toughest road by far of these teams, playing @Stanford, then hosting the Washington Schools, and finishing up at the Southern Cal schools. Cal has already beat Wazzu, and can beat Washington at home. If they can take care of their home games, they will only need 1 win out of Stanford, USC, UCLA. Though a little unlikely, they too have a legitimate chance to finish at 18-11, 9-9 in the PAC-10...

Giving a Lock to WAZZU, UCLA, and Stanford, I think there will be at least 6 teams from the PAC-10 in the Tournament....

If this goes as follows.. The ASU would have the #4 seed, Arizona would have #5, California would get the 6th Seed, and a tie breaker would come between Oregon ad USC as to who would be the 7th and 8th seeds...

Obviously the Tournament would decide a lot of what would happened, going into the Tournament in this case... I think ASU, Arizona, and Cal would all make it, at 9-9.. and if USC upsets Stanford in the first round (assuming they won the play-in game against OSU and was the #7 seed) I believe they would be in too....

That would be as many as 7 teams from the PAC-10 in 4 of them with 9-9 conference records.....


All that said... My official prediction is Oregon and Cal both end up at 8-10 in the PAC-10, and The conference gets in 6

UCLA
Stanford
USC
Arizona
ASU
WAZZU

Thoughts?

 

[Skkorpion]

You put lots of work into that. Thanks. Show me a win against USC and I might start believing.

Watching the other conferences, I'm beginning to think the depth in the PAC was overrated. We might see as few as 3 PAC teams get in the tournament.

UCLA is better than every other PAC team by a large margin.

 

[AsUdUdE]

You put lots of work into that. Thanks. Show me a win against USC and I might start believing.

Watching the other conferences, I'm beginning to think the depth in the PAC was overrated. We might see as few as 3 PAC teams get in the tournament.

UCLA is better than every other PAC team by a large margin.

how bout a win against UCLA

 

[devilfan02]

We might see as few as 3 PAC teams get in the tournament.

The PAC-10 is without a doubt the best conference in basketball this year. There is NO WAY in hell that only 3 PAC teams get in.

As for your UCLA comment, I think they're far superior than any other team in the country. They will prove it in the tourny

 

[Skkorpion]

The PAC-10 is without a doubt the best conference in basketball this year. There is NO WAY in hell that only 3 PAC teams get in.

As for your UCLA comment, I think they're far superior than any other team in the country. They will prove it in the tourny

devil, we just disagree. UCLA is the class of the PAC but the more hoops I watch these days, the more I'm convinced the PAC is waaaay overrated. It is not deep other conferences are deeper.

We'll see. I still say only 3 PAC teams get in and I don't think UCLA loses again until the big dance.

 

[ajcardfan]

Skkorp,

Even when the PAC 10 has been undeniably bad, they get at least 3 teams, usually 4.

What will be interesting is if both UofA and ASU both finish 9-9 and tied for 5th. I highly doubt both will go dancing. In fact, if they both lose the Pac 10 tourney opener, there's no way in hell both get picked. Who does the committee pick in that case? I'd put my money on UofA, even though ASU won both games. In order to avoid the controversy, both may get dissed even though UofA has a great RPI.

 

[AsUdUdE]

Skkorp,

Even when the PAC 10 has been undeniably bad, they get at least 3 teams, usually 4.

What will be interesting is if both UofA and ASU both finish 9-9 and tied for 5th. I highly doubt both will go dancing. In fact, if they both lose the Pac 10 tourney opener, there's no way in hell both get picked. Who does the committee pick in that case? I'd put my money on UofA, even though ASU won both games. In order to avoid the controversy, both may get dissed even though UofA has a great RPI.

the really interesting part is they will in all likelyhood meet in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament...

It will be VERY interesting to see which team wins...

I think if ASU wins that game, they are both in... I think if they lose that game, ASU may be biting finger nails, hoping the Pac-10 gets 6....

But in the end, I just can't see the committee only getting 5 teams in especially if there are 6-7 teams with 9-9 records or better...

Just for arguments sake, if ASU can pull the upset on Thursday giving them, 2 wins over top-10 opponents, and 5 wins over ranked teams, does that guarentee a place in the tourney? I say if we beat UCLA and OSU, we are dancing no matter what...

Lets go Devils!

 

[Skkorpion]

Guys, I'm on your side but if things go as I expect, only UCLA, Stanford and Washington State will get in.

As a rabid fan of the tournament, I think it has been proven over and over, year after year, too many teams from lesser known conferences get shafted in favor of teams from power conferences who can't even win 50% of their in-conference games.

If ASU and UA can't win better than 50% of their PAC games, they don't deserve a spot.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Skkorp,

Even when the PAC 10 has been undeniably bad, they get at least 3 teams, usually 4.

What will be interesting is if both UofA and ASU both finish 9-9 and tied for 5th. I highly doubt both will go dancing. In fact, if they both lose the Pac 10 tourney opener, there's no way in hell both get picked. Who does the committee pick in that case? I'd put my money on UofA, even though ASU won both games. In order to avoid the controversy, both may get dissed even though UofA has a great RPI.

You obviously know next to nothing about the selection process. There's no way the selection committee denies a 19 win team with the toughest schedule in the NCAA. Unless of course the NCAA wants zero TV ratings before conference season as everyone starts scheduling Big Sky and other Sisters of the Poor programs. I believe the lowest BCS conference RPI to not get an invite is somewhere in the high 30's, so if UA goes 2-2 they'll still be in the teens and be fine regardless of conference tournament outcomes.

ASU will be in as well if they go 2-2. And keep in mind ASU's wins against UA are pretty much meaningless in the grand scheme of things when looking at the two schools, the selection committee unlike looks at the ENTIRE body of work and not just two games.

 

[ajcardfan]

You obviously know next to nothing about the selection process. There's no way the selection committee denies a 19 win team with the toughest schedule in the NCAA. Unless of course the NCAA wants zero TV ratings before conference season as everyone starts scheduling Big Sky and other Sisters of the Poor programs. I believe the lowest BCS conference RPI to not get an invite is somewhere in the high 30's, so if UA goes 2-2 they'll still be in the teens and be fine regardless of conference tournament outcomes.

ASU will be in as well if they go 2-2. And keep in mind ASU's wins against UA are pretty much meaningless in the grand scheme of things when looking at the two schools, the selection committee unlike looks at the ENTIRE body of work and not just two games.

Good lord you can be pompous sometimes. It's really wasn't necessary to talk down to me to make your point.

Obviously, I think UofA has a better resume than we do. But, deserving teams get screwed every year. Do they not? I also think there is an East Coast bias against the Pac 10. If conference tournaments go according to plan, UofA will be okay. If you get a handful of upsets, and UofA and ASU have blah finishes, that's where the sweating will happen.

 

[AsUdUdE]

I know its a small game, and for the casual fan would seem insignificant.. But last night, New Mexico lost to BYU at home... It was a HUGE loss for the lobos, and with Ohio St. losing again.. its two potential bubble teams that could have taken spots from the PAC-10 that are now on life support...

Both will have to win their conference tournaments to get in...

Good news for the Devil

Tonight there are HUGE bubble games...

Florida @ Georgia- Georgia is only 3-9 in the SEC, but plays tough at home... A Florida loss, and they will be in SERIOUS trouble finishing the season with Mississippi St., Tennessee, and Kentucky

Oklahoma @ Nebraska- As ASU and Oregon fans know all too well, playing at Nebraska is a TOUGH place to play... Add that to the fact that Nebraska is coming off consecutive wins against Kansas St and Texas A@M, and we could see a solid Victory from Nebraska. Oklahoma NEEDS this victory, already on the bubble, they finish the season against Texas A@M, Oklahoma St, and Missouri.... Should be a very exciting game

Mississippi @ Kentucky- The tale of two teams in this one. Mississippi started out incredibly hot, and since is only 4-8 in the SEC, while Kentucky has been feasting off the SEC having a 9-3 record, and 15-10 overall. A loss for either team could burst their bubble.

Arkansas @ Alabama- ASU and UofA fans alike are big Bama fans tonight, a win for the tide, and Arkansas will be 7-6 and 18-9 overall, with Vandy, @Miss, and Auburn left...

UAB @ UTEP- UAB is one of those teams that very well could steal an at-large bid from the PAC-10, with a trip to Memphis still looming, a loss tonight at UTEP, and UAB will have a VERY tough road, either having to win the Conference Tournament, or @Memphis, to secure a bid, or relying on the committee for a break... Lets go Minors!

All in all there could be more than a few bubbles burst tonight... And from an ASU/PAC-10 fan we have PLENTLY to root for...

 

[Skkorpion]

asudude, I think you are a little too optimistic about ASU. The passion and the research and quality of your posts are good.

Would you consider blogging for the front page every now and then? Not a lot of ASU fans visit here yet but I keep hoping.

Also, about aj's comment about Mao's pomposity. It is dead on, isn't it? Mao helps keep the boards entertaining.

 

[TheKid_1]

Digger, Jay, and Hubert all just said ASU is in the Tourney as of right now. In fact Jay said ASU was in before today's game. I don't agree with them being in before today but I like our chances now!! GO DEVILS!

 

[scXfreakX]

Yeah, I think with today's major win, ASU is definitely in.

 

[FArting]

Lunardi said ASU will be a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament might win a couple. If they lose to Oregon State it will be a bad loss for them.

If ASU can beat Oregon State or Oregon they will be in the NCAA Tournament according to Lunardi.

 

[HooverDam]

Lunardi said ASU will be a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament might win a couple. If they lose to Oregon State it will be a bad loss for them.

If ASU can beat Oregon State or Oregon they will be in the NCAA Tournament according to Lunardi.

I would really be surprised if ASU spazzed out and dropped one to OSU, but I suppose anything is possible. Im fully expecting a sweep of the Oregon schools.

 

[AsUdUdE]

I would really be surprised if ASU spazzed out and dropped one to OSU, but I suppose anything is possible. Im fully expecting a sweep of the Oregon schools.

While I don't quite share your enthusiasm...I do fully expect AT LEAST a split....

ASU plays tough Defense... so hopefully we won't see anything stupid like losing to OSU....

But if the Cards get two, we could be looking at a potential seed in the 6-9 range if we can also get a win in the conference Tournament...

 

[Russ Smith]

While I don't quite share your enthusiasm...I do fully expect AT LEAST a split....

ASU plays tough Defense... so hopefully we won't see anything stupid like losing to OSU....

But if the Cards get two, we could be looking at a potential seed in the 6-9 range if we can also get a win in the conference Tournament...

Let's face it if ASU loses to OSU they don't deserve to be in the tourney OSU is REALLY bad this year. They're the worst shooting team by far in the conference playing the team that plays the best zone and forces teams to make jumpers on paper ASU wins easily.

Oregon is up and down and really hard to predict but OSU should be an easy win and I think if ASU beats Oregon they have a decent shot at overtaking USC since I expect USC to lose at least one of the 2 games this week with Cal and Stanford left on their schedule. I figure SC finishes 10-8, if ASU wins out they're also 10-8 and I believe USC wins the tiebreaker but finishing in a dead heat for 4th would guarantee ASU a bid and a decent seed.

 

[AsUdUdE]

I just want the Devils to stay out of the 8/9 positions, and to a less extent the 7/10....

I would LOVE TO see the Devils win out and get a 6th seed... though I don't think that would happend unless we make it to the Pac-10 finals meaning we would have to beat UCLA in the 2nd round in SoCal... not gonna happend....

That said, IMO opinion the 2nd best place for the Devils to be in is a 11th, or 12th seed, because I that way we would avoid the top 3 seeds for the first two rounds which would be nice....

Just my Opinion....

 

[Mathew81]

I saw Joe Lunardi on ESPNews today. He had us as one of the last 4 in along with Arkansas, Maryland and Virginia Tech. He said we are the strongest candidate of those 4 and that a win over OSU will get us in.

I'm not sure about that last part. A win over USC in the conference tourney would definitely do it.

 

[FArting]

Lunardi has us out as one of the last 4.

 

[Mathew81]

Gonzaga and South Alabama both lost in their conference tournaments tonight. That hurts our chances since both are going to be at-large selections instead of automatic qualifiers. That's two less spots available for us.

 

[ajcardfan]

Gonzaga and South Alabama both lost in their conference tournaments tonight. That hurts our chances since both are going to be at-large selections instead of automatic qualifiers. That's two less spots available for us.

Yep, that couldn't have gone worse for us. St. Mary's will probably make it too, which means the WCC will have 3 teams in. Amazing. But, with the way the mid-majors and small schools have done in the big dance the last decade, it's harder to say they don't deserve it.

 

[PoolBoy]

damn South Alabama and Gonzaga, they may replace ASU and Syracuse....and i will be really pissed.

 

[AsUdUdE]

I think I am to the point where, I am starting to agree with Skkorp.. just to a degree about ASU's chances...

I think it is now apparent we need a win against USC or at least a very close game to get in.... otherwise we may be NIT bound....

Stupid San Diego who will get rolled by 45 points in the first round....

And I don't think any team that loses in a game before ethe finals to middle tennessee State belongs in the tournament....

Your telling me that ASU, or Syracuse would lose to William and Mary, or Middle Tennessee State in a tournament, with their season on the lines? NO WAY... That is why South Alabama and VCU though they have a decent resume, I think there are more deserving teams... IMO... that said, this is just how the process goes....