USC/UCLA leaving Pac12 for Big10?

[SeattleCardinal]

This article from 2011 is painful to look back on, now. I do get that only UT had AAU academic prestige.

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[WiscoBird]

Can the ABOR step in if Crow decides to go down with the ship?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I wouldn't say "need," right now, but as the conference's most valuable brands or markets, UW and UO would be schools the B1G could "want" in its competition with the SEC. I am inclined to agree with ASU alum Matt Barrie's take today:

Big 12:
Colorado
Utah
Arizona St
Arizona
Big 10:
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
Uhhh:
Oregon St
Washington St

While I hate to say it, I see no reason why ASU underperforming athletics wouldn’t be classed with Oregon state and Washington state.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

While I hate to say it, I see no reason why ASU underperforming athletics wouldn’t be classed with Oregon state and Washington state.

I love how you mention ASU underperforming and curiously omitting UofA.

Also - you seem to be ignoring the main reason Oregon State and Washington State would be left out. No media market. Tucson and U of A would be much more in the Oregon State/Washington State pool from that standpoint.

 

[SeattleCardinal]

Yeah, it's not all about recent on-field performance. That is why Colorado is a big loss to the Pac-12, notwithstanding loss-won records.

Some notes on the ABOR, FWIW.

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[MaoTosiFanClub]

I love how you mention ASU underperforming and curiously omitting UofA.

Also - you seem to be ignoring the main reason Oregon State and Washington State would be left out. No media market. Tucson and U of A would be much more in the Oregon State/Washington State pool from that standpoint.

Nobody cares about market anymore, it’s about eyeballs. More people watch Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, etc in Phoenix than they do ASU and UofA.

If UofA gets an invite out the only reasons would be the basketball program and our willingness to engage with the Big 12 a year ago when the LA schools left giving us a headstart. The people making the calls see both Arizona schools more or less a wash.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I’ll also add that Stanford would be a huge get for any conference and is seemingly being left out of the conversations here. Besides Oregon and UW they also rank far above us in the pecking order. Likely Cal too by extension.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Nobody cares about market anymore

They're certainly less important but let's not confuse that with completely unimportant. There is a reason that Washington State and Oregon State are viewed as on the outside looking in, and that's all based on the attractiveness of their market.

It matters less than before, but it's not irrelevant.

, it’s about eyeballs. More people watch Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, etc in Phoenix than they do ASU and UofA.

No doubt, raising future front runners!

If UofA gets an invite out the only reasons would be the basketball program and our willingness to engage with the Big 12 a year ago when the LA schools left giving us a headstart.

I'd believe it - ASU appears to be holding on to the sanctity of their "research uni" status to turn their nose up to the Big 12. Good for prestige, not so much for the competitiveness of our sports programs!

The people making the calls see both Arizona schools more or less a wash.

Two sides of the same coin, no matter how much those down south want to pretend they're different. Just like all the inane debates I suffered with U of A fans throughout the years about claiming an "elite" basketball program!

 

[SeattleCardinal]

I’ll also add that Stanford would be a huge get for any conference and is seemingly being left out of the conversations here. Besides Oregon and UW they also rank far above us in the pecking order. Likely Cal too by extension.

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[Lefty]

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[SeattleCardinal]

If I were a Pac-12 president, I would say "enough with the waiting." It's been a year.

 

[Raindog]

I love how you mention ASU underperforming and curiously omitting UofA.

Also - you seem to be ignoring the main reason Oregon State and Washington State would be left out. No media market. Tucson and U of A would be much more in the Oregon State/Washington State pool from that standpoint.

Yup... the major factor in these realignments is going to be media market. Of course, the real handful of athletic bluebloods (Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, USC, etc.) are always going to be the pick of the litter, so to speak and get to call their shots.

But at the end of the day, just as with everything else in contemporary America, money talks and BS walks. So that means big TV markets are the next most desirable asset your school has... which is going to put the squeeze on traditional "college town" programs.

U of A is just fortunate that the basketball program has established a national name, or else they are seriously looking at ending up with the Colorado States and Nevadas of the world once all of this shakes out. There is literally nothing else for them to offer.

 

[Mainstreet]

If the money for staying in the PAC-12 is close or in another alignment, there is an argument to be made for ASU being the big fish in a small pond.

ASU had some big days in the WAC.

 

[MigratingOsprey]

But at the end of the day, just as with everything else in contemporary America, money talks and BS walks. So that means big TV markets are the next most desirable asset your school has... which is going to put the squeeze on traditional "college town" programs.

I think it's also what "plays" in those markets.

While State College is a small college town, the PSU following in the population centers would exceed that of Pitt, Temple, etc overall.

The are some exceptions, like basketball in Philadelphia, but the money moves towards the larger state school on the whole

Other areas may be a big market, but the interest doesn't match the size

I think they look at the total draw of a program and then his the draw is broken up - regional vs national, etc and what competition is there for that draw

I think that is the challenge a bit for the AZ schools - they have one major population center that is divided by both programs and filled with many others who just don't care

It's a tough spot to be in. While more attractive than the OSU & WSU of the world, they are definitely on a tier below summer of the other programs that have shuffled

 

[SeattleCardinal]

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[Lefty]

Looks like the Big-12 wants to add one more school and Arizona is mentioned, https://www.espn.com/college-footba...rces-big-12-looking-add-another-school-get-14

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I love how you mention ASU underperforming and curiously omitting UofA.

Also - you seem to be ignoring the main reason Oregon State and Washington State would be left out. No media market. Tucson and U of A would be much more in the Oregon State/Washington State pool from that standpoint.

Uh, you want to compare Arizona and ASU in hoops - one of two glamor sports? There’s no comparison. One school has an elite, and historically elite program, the other has squat. And before you chalk this up to fandom, I didn’t attend either school. I grew up an ASU football and Arizona basketball fan. Still am. But one is sports relevant and one isn’t.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I love how you mention ASU underperforming and curiously omitting UofA.

Also - you seem to be ignoring the main reason Oregon State and Washington State would be left out. No media market. Tucson and U of A would be much more in the Oregon State/Washington State pool from that standpoint.

Btw, Portland is a bigger market than Eugene. Market doesn’t matter. Teams that place eyes on tv matter.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

.

U of A is just fortunate that the basketball program has established a national name, or else they are seriously looking at ending up with the Colorado States and Nevadas of the world once all of this shakes out. There is literally nothing else for them to offer.

But they have. And that matters. People would be excited to have Arizona hooos join their conference. They would literally yawn if ASU joined their conference.

 

[MigratingOsprey]

Just basketball isn't necessarily a draw though - look at schools like UConn, Villanova, etc

Syracuse left the big east for the ACC and they have faded with hoops and football hasn't been relevant in a long time

 

[Raindog]

But they have. And that matters. People would be excited to have Arizona hooos join their conference. They would literally yawn if ASU joined their conference.

But the point is that ASU has the Phoenix TV market... which is not insubstantial in the grand scheme (currently 12th largest). Granted, ASU hasn't had a significantly successful team in either major sport in a while, but they will still bring that media market and its accompanying value to whatever conference they go to.

And if/when the football program is revived, that has even greater potential for high revenue impact. And that's not even mentioning that Phoenix is one of the major bowl/CFP sites. Adding all of that up, ASU is an attractive potential member for any conference. They only reason they haven't been scooped up by the B10 or someone else (so far) is that the current administration is being stubborn about riding it out with the PAC Whatever... mostly due to the narcissistic president, apparently.

 

[SeattleCardinal]

Just basketball isn't necessarily a draw though - look at schools like UConn, Villanova, etc

Syracuse left the big east for the ACC and they have faded with hoops and football hasn't been relevant in a long time

It will be interesting to see if UConn joins the Big 12, should Arizona (or Utah or ASU) decline. UConn wouldn't get a full share, at first, because it is not currently a P5 football school. But it will obviously make an already powerful conference even better. Given the state of UConn football, Yormark will have to sell the Huskies to the Big 12 schools, but he's obviously got a lot of power and influence, thanks to his success bringing Ralphie over.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

But the point is that ASU has the Phoenix TV market... which is not insubstantial in the grand scheme (currently 12th largest). Granted, ASU hasn't had a significantly successful team in either major sport in a while, but they will still bring that media market and its accompanying value to whatever conference they go to.

And if/when the football program is revived, that has even greater potential for high revenue impact. And that's not even mentioning that Phoenix is one of the major bowl/CFP sites. Adding all of that up, ASU is an attractive potential member for any conference. They only reason they haven't been scooped up by the B10 or someone else (so far) is that the current administration is being stubborn about riding it out with the PAC Whatever... mostly due to the narcissistic president, apparently.

this is the overweight used car salesman at the bar suggesting the supermodel who just walked in is interested in him. I can assure you that ASU would Usain Bolt run to the Big 10 if they showed even a whiff of interest which they obviously don’t as of now. They’d be at absolutely best fourth place in the pecking order for any B1G expansion and that’s only PAC schools. Would probably be a handful of ACC schools who would be higher on their list too.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting UofA is a significantly better catch than ASU. We just appear to have the advantage of having a twelve month head start.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Just basketball isn't necessarily a draw though - look at schools like UConn, Villanova, etc

Syracuse left the big east for the ACC and they have faded with hoops and football hasn't been relevant in a long time

True, but it’s still something. And Syracuse was courted when it’s basketball program was still desirable.

ASU has nothing to offer. Not a single shining glamor sport, either present day or reputationally, and people can try touting the Phoenix market but Phoenix has never been hotbed of ASU fandom. Whether that’s due to historically weak teams or being an enormously transplant town, it’s never been crazy for ASU in any sport which makes the market driven argument basically toothless. Who wants a market if no one in that market is watching?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

But the point is that ASU has the Phoenix TV market... which is not insubstantial in the grand scheme (currently 12th largest). Granted, ASU hasn't had a significantly successful team in either major sport in a while, but they will still bring that media market and its accompanying value to whatever conference they go to.

And if/when the football program is revived, that has even greater potential for high revenue impact. And that's not even mentioning that Phoenix is one of the major bowl/CFP sites. Adding all of that up, ASU is an attractive potential member for any conference. They only reason they haven't been scooped up by the B10 or someone else (so far) is that the current administration is being stubborn about riding it out with the PAC Whatever... mostly due to the narcissistic president, apparently.

I just explained why the Phoenix market is meaningless. It doesn’t care enough about ASU to make an impact. I’d almost bet that a high profile Arizona basketball game draws more eyes than any single ASU sporting event in the greater Phoenix metro region. No conference is going to bet on the “sleeping giant” that never wakes up finally waking up.