USC/UCLA leaving Pac12 for Big10?

[SeattleCardinal]

this is the overweight used car salesman at the bar suggesting the supermodel who just walked in is interested in him. I can assure you that ASU would Usain Bolt run to the Big 10 if they showed even a whiff of interest which they obviously don’t as of now. They’d be at absolutely best fourth place in the pecking order for any B1G expansion and that’s only PAC schools. Would probably be a handful of ACC schools who would be higher on their list too.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting UofA is a significantly better catch than ASU. We just appear to have the advantage of having a twelve month head start.

I would think that Virginia and UNC are definitely higher on the B1G list than are any of the Pac-12 "corner schools." Maybe even Georgia Tech is, for geographic expansion. There is the ACC bill of rights matter to deal with, which Clemson, FSU, UNC, Virginia, and certain other schools are chafing at.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

this is the overweight used car salesman at the bar suggesting the supermodel who just walked in is interested in him. I can assure you that ASU would Usain Bolt run to the Big 10 if they showed even a whiff of interest which they obviously don’t as of now. They’d be at absolutely best fourth place in the pecking order for any B1G expansion and that’s only PAC schools. Would probably be a handful of ACC schools who would be higher on their list too.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting UofA is a significantly better catch than ASU. We just appear to have the advantage of having a twelve month head start.

I think hoops does give them an advantage. Significant or not, who knows. But would undoubtedly bring more nationally televised eyes.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I would think that Virginia and UNC are definitely higher on the B1G list than are any of the Pac-12 "corner schools." Maybe even Georgia Tech is, for geographic expansion. There is the ACC bill of rights matter to deal with, which Clemson, FSU, UNC, Virginia, and certain other schools are chafing at.

I’d agree with this.

 

[Raindog]

Again, TV market IS and will be the most significant factor in who gets invited where, when all the political factors are resolved. For anyone that doesn't recognize that, why do you think the B10 took in Rutgers and Maryland all that not so long ago? Because of the storied histories of their sports programs?

Nope... it was because they are both in HUGE media markets. If the B10 were actually interested in something as economically trivial as a hoops program with "tradition," the alternatives would have been Syracuse and Kansas.

Now I'm not saying ASU is going to end up in the B10. But they will end up somewhere as or more significant than UA and it's 50th ranked market, if/when they so choose... hoops or not.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Again, TV market IS and will be the most significant factor in who gets invited where, when all the political factors are resolved. For anyone that doesn't recognize that, why do you think the B10 took in Rutgers and Maryland all that not so long ago? Because of the storied histories of their sports programs?

Nope... it was because they are both in HUGE media markets. If the B10 were actually interested in something as economically trivial as a hoops program with "tradition," the alternatives would have been Syracuse and Kansas.

Now I'm not saying ASU is going to end up in the B10. But they will end up somewhere as or more significant than UA and it's 50th ranked market, if/when they so choose... hoops or not.

Those markets have always strongly supported those schools. The Phoenix market doesn’t give a crap about ASU. Hasn’t since John cooper really. It was never big enough to support four pro teams and major college athletics, then ASU failed to become anything of any significance.

I could very well be wrong but I think market above all else is an antiquated vision. Admittedly a quick google search turned up nothing significant in the discussion. We’ll just agree to disagree.

 

[WiscoBird]

Going to the Big 12 is not going to save anybody. It's just kicking the can down the road. The Big 12 was smart this last cycle because they asked for full tv rights money for any future P5 additions. The SEC and the B1G will ask for the same in 2030.

The only benefit of going to the Big 12 right now is it gives you 6 years of stability. There will be 40-48 spots in the super 2. Both of our schools have a lot of work to do.

 

[AZCB34]

As the PAC imploded, which it clearly is right now, this is where all these commitments we were feeling good about start to fade away. Maybe not all of them but if you are one of those recruits, do you stick with ASU knowing your games could be on an obscure channel and/or on a streaming platform (think having to search each weekend where your game will be) in which diehard fans don’t wish to subscribe playing inferior talent?

Everyone says Arizona is next and that may be true but the critical domino is Oregon/Washington. Once they bolt, and they will, it’sa free for all.

 

[Absolute Zero]

 

[SeattleCardinal]

Gawd no.

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[AZCB34]

Gawd no.

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I agree but there may not be a viable choice to be had. Everyone just assumes ASU to Big 12 but it isn’ta slam dunk. Big 12 has been actively pursuing UConn per reports I have heard.

Colorado moving is going to start another larger consolidation of programs and make no mistake, even though football rules the roost, basketball is definitely an important factor. That is why Arizona is a wanted commodity.

I guess the positive is, pretty soon I won’t have to listen to Bill Walton say conference of champions 80 times per telecast.

 

[Raindog]

Going to the Big 12 is not going to save anybody. It's just kicking the can down the road. The Big 12 was smart this last cycle because they asked for full tv rights money for any future P5 additions. The SEC and the B1G will ask for the same in 2030.

The only benefit of going to the Big 12 right now is it gives you 6 years of stability. There will be 40-48 spots in the super 2. Both of our schools have a lot of work to do.

True enough. By 2030 or so, major college football is inevitably headed towards being just two major conferences of probably around 40-50 schools each, and another group of maybe 40-50 schools that will be irrelevant "independents." And of those, the Rice and UAB types are going to have to seriously consider demoting themselves to 1A status in order to continue to be viable programs.

That's what is absolutely going to happen unless some other governing body steps in to address some more formalized organization of the sport. Whether that ends up being something like the NCAA (unlikely) or Congress (even more unlikely), college football as most of us grew up knowing it is going to become a very different sport between the loss of traditional conferences and the NIL issue.

 

[AZCB34]

Eff Larry Scott forever.

You know, it’s hard to believe a single person’s tenure could have such disastrous results but, geez, his legacy is a failed television product and now a failed conference

 

[AZCB34]

True enough. By 2030 or so, major college football is inevitably headed towards being just two major conferences of probably around 40-50 schools each, and another group of maybe 40-50 schools that will be irrelevant "independents." And of those, the Rice and UAB types are going to have to seriously consider demoting themselves to 1A status in order to continue to be viable programs.

That's what is absolutely going to happen unless some other governing body steps in to address some more formalized organization of the sport. Whether that ends up being something like the NCAA (unlikely) or Congress (even more unlikely), college football as most of us grew up knowing it is going to become a very different sport between the loss of traditional conferences and the NIL issue.

And there is no space at the table for ASU in the 50 team super conferences that are coming.

The second group of 50ish will establish their own championship system.

 

[Lefty]

You know, it’s hard to believe a single person’s tenure could have such disastrous results but, geez, his legacy is a failed television product and now a failed conference

You can also thank Michael Crow, who was Larry Scott's #1 supporter.

 

[Raindog]

You can also thank Michael Crow, who was Larry Scott's #1 supporter.

That's been the catch for ASU. Crow is an arrogant SOB who has all but destroyed the athletic programs.

 

[Raindog]

And there is no space at the table for ASU in the 50 team super conferences that are coming.

The second group of 50ish will establish their own championship system.

ASU will be a part of the super conferences. It's a major research university in one of the largest metro areas in the nation. They will be okay. It's the directional mid majors that are going to be squeezed out.

 

[Folster]

I think the PAC needs to be bold and aggressive. They should add 5 immediately, possibly 7. Take all of the relevant late night inventory away from the Mountain West and their TV partners Fox and CBS. Force them to the table.

Add athletic brands that immediately make the conference more competitive. Add valuable markets and schools with academics and athletic potential. They don't need to check every box. We are past that.

1. SDSU
2. SMU
3. Fresno St.
4. Boise St.
5. UNLV.
6. Tulane.
7. Colorado State.
8. Gonzaga (basketball and Olympic sports)
9. Nevada
10. New Mexico

This is my top 10.

 

[Folster]

How long before Disney and Fox realize paying the likes of Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Missouri, Vandy and others 75-100M million a year is a bad idea?

They really only want 5-6 teams per conference.

 

[WiscoBird]

And there is no space at the table for ASU in the 50 team super conferences that are coming.

The second group of 50ish will establish their own championship system.

We can thank Crow for that. He never understood how sports creates community. His focus on academics and real estate development is admirable, but he has turned ASU into a massive conglomerate with no sense of loyalty or community.

 

[WiscoBird]

How long before Disney and Fox realize paying the likes of Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Missouri, Vandy and others 75-100M million a year is a bad idea?

They really only want 5-6 teams per conference.

Bingo! 40-48 spots available but all the teams that currently have a spot are not guaranteed to have one in the future.

 

[SeattleCardinal]

ASU will be a part of the super conferences. It's a major research university in one of the largest metro areas in the nation. They will be okay. It's the directional mid majors that are going to be squeezed out.

Yes, I find it hard to believe that ASU wouldn't be in the top 50 athletic universities. And they should be higher than at least a few members of the B1G and SEC, not to mention the ACC.

 

[Folster]

Bingo! 40-48 spots available but all the teams that currently have a spot are not guaranteed to have one in the future.

I don't think the university presidents and athletic directors realize that the media partners are marching them to becoming a professional minor league football league. At some point the players will strike to get their fair share of the massive amounts of cash these universities are raking in off of their labor. The NIL money they're currently getting isn't even part of the pie.

 

[Lefty]

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[MaoTosiFanClub]

ASU will be a part of the super conferences. It's a major research university in one of the largest metro areas in the nation. They will be okay. It's the directional mid majors that are going to be squeezed out.

I’m curious where you would think schools like Houston, NC State, Kansas, Minnesota, SDSU, Bay Area schools, Pitt as a few examples end up in your hypothetical scenario.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

How long before Disney and Fox realize paying the likes of Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Missouri, Vandy and others 75-100M million a year is a bad idea?

They really only want 5-6 teams per conference.

You are 100% wrong here. They actually do want/need those schools. Nobody likes 6-4 Ohio State vs 5-5 Oklahoma even if they are two of the top 10 teams in the country.

The networks ideal situation is a 16 team playoff with a couple random schools and fourteen 12-1 and 11-2 blue bloods from a few different parts of the country.