Wearing Rose Colored Glasses

[Arizona's Finest]

I don't understand where you're having difficulty is in understanding the pessimism. People who wanted DA fired didn't want him fired because they thought a new coach had a chance to turn us into contenders. Most of the "pessimists" thought the window slammed shut with or without him (and most of us thought we slammed our own window last offseason). With that being said, they wanted him fired to have some kind of accountability so that the sliding scale of failure wouldn't continue to be rewarded.


you say "too old" as if it's nothing to sneeze at. All the 10 man rotations (which will heavily depend on two completely unproven rookies) in the world can't compensate for age and injuries Finest. Did DA's critics get what they wanted in his firing? Yeah. That got accountability, but we didn't get a Doc-Brown DeLorean with it where we could go back in time and grab MVSteve, a 34 year old-Shaq and a 33 year-old Grant Hill. So really, the DA bashers didn't get what they wanted because what they wanted isn't possible. We just believe that when the window closes, the window closes. That's all.

From my memory everyone on this board decided that DA was the problem and that someone else would have made all the difference. I don't remember anyone wanting DA to be held "accountable". Jesus - he had the best 4 year run of any Suns coach other then maybe Westphal and made the team relevant again. The nitpicking and calls to have him fired were for distinct tendencies DA had that 99% of the people on the board thought were holding the team back.


No offense Cheese but you are the pessimist of pessimists and I think you stand alone in your feeling that everyone thought the window shut last year. Its like you see the glass as half empty and then also declare the water inside to be poisioned and luke warm. Sheesh. I get being a realist. I also get wanting to have things proven to you before jumping on board. But from your posts its like just because they are a year older all the starters will miss 50% of the games, break down, none of the young guys will get better or infact regress, AND the team bus will crash before the season opener. Wasn't Porter brought in to reduce the work load and keep the minutes down for the vets and develop the young talent? Isn't our training staff supposed to be world renowned for easing back father time?


Its my opinion that if we do struggle this year it won't be because of age. It will be because we got rid of a coach who maximized the teams offensive talent and replaced him with someone who will get us to play a little better defense but at the cost of significantly less offensive firepower.


To me we know longer have an identity. We are going to be irrellevent and just good enough to win 48 games and bow out of the first round. Echh. Mediocre AND uninteresting.

Like I said a while ago - careful what you wish for Suns fans.

and FYI - You're wrong about the Cardinals tomorrow too

 

[arwillan]

Let's dont be neither over-optimistic, nor over-pessimistic.

Finding an accurate prediction is impossible, nobody knows the future for sure. Irish might be a little more optimistic than others, but most of his points r quite reasonable.

Just my opinions.

For the young guys, Dragic and Lopez, and maybe Tucker, at least one of them will become a regular contributor. Expect both of them to fail is clearly over-pessimistic. We had the "win-now" attitude during draft days, we didn't go for high-risk high-reward, star or dust type of picks. They might not reach the 100% we hope them for, I'll be happy they got 80%, for worse, maybe 60%. No way all of them got below 50%. If they do, Kerr and his scouts got to be fired right way.

And, our expectation on them is actually not that high. Don't forget, we have 8 veterans in rotation, we don't really count on Dragic and Lopez much in playoff. Their main job is just to fill in minutes and games in regular season, for the starters to get enough rest.


Barnes, everyone knows he just had a bad 07-08 season, the reason we got him by veteran minimal. In 19mpg, he had 6.7ppg, 4.4rpg (outstanding) and 1.9apg (very good). Giricek had 8.8ppg, 2.3rpg and 1.6apg in about same PT. He is a true SF and defends much better. So even with "the worst Barnes", we have a considerable upgrade.

We need him to do better in 3P shooting for us, 35% will be good enough, Marion did less b4 the trade. Barnes was 36.6% for GSW a year ago and 42.2% for 11 playoff games, so it is a very reasonable expectation.


Hill was overworked last season, averaged more than 30mpg. His health is definitely still a concern for the new season. He might miss a dozen games or more. But with Barnes and Tucker backup, we can live with it. No reason to overestimate the risk of losing Hill again at the end of season.

marion shot 34.7% before the trade, so barnes at 35% wouldn't really be an upgrade. actually marion hitting 3's was excellent for us because he was a PF most of the time. but i agree, we do need some good 3 point shooting out of barnes for him to be a true upgrade for us. i think he'll do just fine with most of the attention of the other team's defense focused away from him

 

[elindholm]

The Suns' window has closed, but I don't see why that has to be regarded as "pessimistic." Perhaps some have forgotten how far away the Suns were last season. They won one playoff game, losing a series to the Spurs, who in turn lost to the Lakers, who in turn lost to the Celtics. Sure, perfect health, better coaching, and more depth would have helped, but does anyone really think that the Suns got three levels better this summer, especially once age is figured in?

We're not talking about the 2006-07 team that had the eventual champion Spurs at 2-2 before the suspensions, nor the 2005-06 team that reached the conference finals without their best offensive player. The 2007-08 team was already in major decline. If you look at the key players on the current Suns roster, it should be obvious that none of them is in position to have a "much better" 2008-09. And yet the entire team would have to be much better -- much better -- to contend for a title. It's just not there.

But this is not doom and gloom. It is the natural evolution of things: all good runs must come to an end. We would have preferred that the Suns win a title during their run, but it was still a good run. It should bring no one any shame to acknowledge that the run is over.

 

[az1965]

Let the rebuilding begin... oops, can't do that for another couple of years at least with all those sold draft picks and ridiculous huge contracts of has-beens (Shaq) and underachievers (Diaw)...

I agree the window has been closed. Let the dreamers dream...

 

[Arizona's Finest]

The Suns' window has closed, but I don't see why that has to be regarded as "pessimistic." Perhaps some have forgotten how far away the Suns were last season. They won one playoff game, losing a series to the Spurs, who in turn lost to the Lakers, who in turn lost to the Celtics. Sure, perfect health, better coaching, and more depth would have helped, but does anyone really think that the Suns got three levels better this summer, especially once age is figured in?

We're not talking about the 2006-07 team that had the eventual champion Spurs at 2-2 before the suspensions, nor the 2005-06 team that reached the conference finals without their best offensive player. The 2007-08 team was already in major decline. If you look at the key players on the current Suns roster, it should be obvious that none of them is in position to have a "much better" 2008-09. And yet the entire team would have to be much better -- much better -- to contend for a title. It's just not there.

But this is not doom and gloom. It is the natural evolution of things: all good runs must come to an end. We would have preferred that the Suns win a title during their run, but it was still a good run. It should bring no one any shame to acknowledge that the run is over.

I am actually not optimistic myself and for the reasons I pointed out at the end of my post.

My point was more:

1) People were calling for DA's head at the beginning of last season and it worsened as the season progressed. So the "accountability" argument for the sliding scale of regression doesn't really fit as we would have only been hearing the cries at the end of the season once the results were in.

2) Cheese has an overly pessimistic view IMO from time to time. I know where it stems from. He made one overzealous comment about the Josh McCown/Denny Green era a couple years ago and was given a lot of crap for it. So hes gone soooo far to the darkside because he doesn't ever want to feel that way again.

Basically this all started because I read his prediction for todays Cards/Jets game and then read this and it chapped my hide. He knows as well as I do the Cards need all the positive mojo we can get

 

[Cheesebeef]

I am actually not optimistic myself and for the reasons I pointed out at the end of my post.

My point was more:

1) People were calling for DA's head at the beginning of last season and it worsened as the season progressed. So the "accountability" argument for the sliding scale of regression doesn't really fit as we would have only been hearing the cries at the end of the season once the results were in.

2) Cheese has an overly pessimistic view IMO from time to time. I know where it stems from. He made one overzealous comment about the Josh McCown/Denny Green era a couple years ago and was given a lot of crap for it. So hes gone soooo far to the darkside because he doesn't ever want to feel that way again.

come on now. fair is fair. I've given MYSELF lots of crap for that one. I still don't know who that guy was who made the Josh McCown proclamation. As far as going completely to the darkside, that just ain't true. I actually love the Cards offensive staff and think this Suns team, if built two years ago would kill people. But you just can't fight age/injuries.

Basically this all started because I read his prediction for todays Cards/Jets game and then read this and it chapped my hide. He knows as well as I do the Cards need all the positive mojo we can get

dude, you started a thread fearful we were going to lose to the Dolphins a couple weeks ago. Pot meet kettle. You're black!

 

[devilalum]

I never understood why the Suns don't use Hill to give Nash 15-20 minutes of rest a game?

Hill has played point forward a lot during his career and done an excellent job. Dragic seems to be able to come in and play defense against opposition PGs. The Suns free wheeling days seem to be over. That might help keep Nash fresh as well.

 

[Irish]

I'll be starting a new thread based on the "TenThings" articles in both the Reputlci and the Tribune.

Marion:I'lll be the first to admit I'm not sure Barnes will be the shooter wie want. But let's remember what he is replacing in Marion.

2004-05 33.4%
2005-06 33.1%
2006-07 31.7%
2007-08 34.7% (Phoenix)
2007-08 25.8% (Miami)

With over 248 attempts in previous years Last year he cut down on his three point attempts (shot at an annualized rate of 187), but quickly reverted when he went to Miami.

Shooting only 33% is not the same as 50% for two, because it creates more long rebounds that can trigger the game going the other way.

For comparison purposes, the four worst three point shooting teams last season were:

Sixers: 31.7%
Clippers: 32.4%
Sonics: 33.3%
Knicks: 33.7%

BTw, Sixers were outscored on overall basis by a half point. Even Korver was just 35.2% before he left.

 

[Cheesebeef]

oh, and Finest, at some point you'll realize I'm not pessimistic. I am REALISTIC. Nice performance by the Cards today doing exactly what I thought they would do... hand Sportscenter the headline: "FAVRE IS BACK!' on a silver platter.

 

[Mainstreet]

oh, and Finest, at some point you'll realize I'm not pessimistic. I am REALISTIC. Nice performance by the Cards today doing exactly what I thought they would do... hand Sportscenter the headline: "FAVRE IS BACK!' on a silver platter.

I wish Warner had big hands like Favre and could hang onto the football.

 

[shazaam6]

I just want to say, "Sweet dreams, Moonpie."

I always loved this line from the 1975 movie, "Rollerball" with James Caan. Your comments made me think of it. I wish they would remake this movie true to the 1975 version. This movie begs for a legitimate remake. In the movie corporations run the world with mankind as a pawn. It sure sounds familiar in these times. It has some great sports action.

Here is some of the script:



http://www.script-o-rama.com/movie_scripts/r/rollerball-script-transcript-james-caan.html

Jon-a-than, Jon-a-than, Jon-a-than

Awesome movie

 

[leclerc]

Being in favour of D'Antoni or Porter don't change the fact that we're a year older and most of our core group are in their mid thirties.

 

[Irish]

Age is less important than health. Assuming the team is healthy, their older guys are likely to be effective since Shaq, Hill, and Nash are not dependent on their athleticism. But depth IS crucial because older guys take longer to heal and having to rush them back into the lineup is a huge problem.

One of the reasons that no one wants to give Mariona a big extension is that he's totally dependent on his athleticism rather than his skill level.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Age is less important than health.

there's no separating the two issues.

 

[msdundee]

Re: "Age is less important than health."

there's no separating the two issues.

I'm not sure how you can seriously say that. There are 30-year-olds and some even younger who are seriously debilitated with health problems. At the same time, my 60-year-old neighbor can run his own kids ragged out on the tennis court without even breaking a sweat.

Specifically with regard to sports/basketball, you could argue that age is less important than health but in the long run conditioning is more important than either one of them.

 

[Irish]

there's no separating the two issues.

The Spurs have routinely been the oldest team in the NBA. Bowen was born in June of 1971 and continues to play a lot. His age may have reduced his shooting and may be partly why he has become more of a thug in recent years. but it has not shut him down.

Kurt Thomas was born in 72, Finley in 73, Vaugh and Oberto in 75, and Duncan in 76. The key seems to be that they are not overused and are ready when the playoffs come.

You can't expect older players to be as quick as younger guys, but they can be effective is used properly. I get tired of waiting for the Spurs to fall apart, but so far they haven't when it counts.

 

[nowagimp]

Irish: the spurs big 3 have not been old, 2 of the suns big 3 are.


General: those of you who like flying under the radar should be pleased with the stein power rankings. The suns are way under the radar at #12.





http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/powerranking?season=2009&week=-1

 

[Cheesebeef]

The Spurs have routinely been the oldest team in the NBA. Bowen was born in June of 1971 and continues to play a lot. His age may have reduced his shooting and may be partly why he has become more of a thug in recent years. but it has not shut him down.

Kurt Thomas was born in 72, Finley in 73, Vaugh and Oberto in 75, and Duncan in 76. The key seems to be that they are not overused and are ready when the playoffs come.

You can't expect older players to be as quick as younger guys, but they can be effective is used properly. I get tired of waiting for the Spurs to fall apart, but so far they haven't when it counts.

Spurs big 3 aren't old. 2 of our Big 3 (if we even have a big 3 anymore) are.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Re: "Age is less important than health."


I'm not sure how you can seriously say that. There are 30-year-olds and some even younger who are seriously debilitated with health problems.

you don't have to tell me this - I'm one of those people. But I'm not playing in the NBA and neither is your 60 year old neighbor. Age matters in sports.

Specifically with regard to sports/basketball, you could argue that age is less important than health but in the long run conditioning is more important than either one of them.

you could argue it but I think on the whole you'd be wrong. Players who are already injury prone (Grant Hill/Shaq) are only gonna get worse with age as the body starts breaking down and players who are already dealing with lifelong injuries (Nash) are only gonna slow down with age as well.

 

[Irish]

Irish: the spurs big 3 have not been old, 2 of the suns big 3 are.

General: those of you who like flying under the radar should be pleased with the stein power rankings. The suns are way under the radar at #12.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/powerranking?season=2009&week=-1

Granted, the guy that killed the Suns is the only member of their their big three that is under 30.

None of the rankings assume the Suns will get any productivity out of Lopez and Dragic. Rosie Glasses does. Clearly if Lopez and Dragic bomb (in a bad way), Barnes fails, Shaq falls apart, etc. then this is just an average team. The topic was about why there is optimism, not why the team could fail.

How much difference did losing Hill make in the Spurs series? On that roster, it was fatal. So the fact that team played well in last 20 games of the regular season gets lost with that defeat. With every expert fixated on that series, I'm surprised the Suns aren't ranked 25th.

 

[nowagimp]

Re: "Age is less important than health."


I'm not sure how you can seriously say that. There are 30-year-olds and some even younger who are seriously debilitated with health problems. At the same time, my 60-year-old neighbor can run his own kids ragged out on the tennis court without even breaking a sweat.

Specifically with regard to sports/basketball, you could argue that age is less important than health but in the long run conditioning is more important than either one of them.

Basketball is one of the most demanding sports in terms of speed and endurance combined. Strength is not lost with age until around 40 +/- years old, but speed and endurance are lost 5 or more years earlier. How many 34-36 year old track stars do you see competing at the higher levels? There is alot of history here that shows that PG's are the first to lose their ability, followed by SG, SF. Big men do stay around longer as long as speed is not their niche, and they arent expected to run too much. Steve Nash is old as a PG, most PG's fall off alot by 34-35 years old. JKidd is a year younger than nash, and he's just about toast as a front line PG. Wing players that are 34-35 years old also have a speed deficit that is most often a problem with on ball defense. Bruce Bowen is an oddball there, but he doesnt play offense, sits alot, and has a big 7 foot defensive presence behind him when he gets beat. A guy like grant hill can no longer stay with quick wings, and that is why he plays so far off his man. Working out can only get you so far, age takes away things that working out cant makeup for. And NBA basketball is not kind to age, of all the major sports its the toughest for older athletes. Add to that that the suns are constructed as a running team, and you have your answer, they are a little too old to be a serious contender.

 

[nowagimp]

Granted, the guy that killed the Suns is the only member of their their big three that is under 30.

None of the rankings assume the Suns will get any productivity out of Lopez and Dragic.

The suns dont just need productiivity, they need alot out of dragic as a backup PG and Lopez as a center to backup shaq and start if shaq is injured or cant play. It is very rare that rookies come in and take over those kinds of responsibilities, very rare. And 30 years old is not the old age line, certainly not for a big guy. In the NBA it seems to start at 33-34 depending on the miles, injury history on the player. Players are playing longer than ever, but 34-35 used to signify retirement age for PG's and wings.

 

[Irish]

Should they give all the tickets back since they are doomed?

The issue of Dragic is simple. He is not replacing Nash, he's replacing Barbosa at PG. I don't have numbers, but it seemed like the Suns offense ground to halt when Nash was out. Obviously if Nash is injured for a long time, nothing is going to help.

Lopez needs to be more productive than Skinner, a guy who averaged under 13 minutes a game. Obviously if Shaq goes down for a long time it is unlikely he will replace what Shaq can offer.. But otherwise it seems likely Lopez will be a better fill in than Diaw was last season.

The Rosie Glasses view is that the Suns finished only 2 games out of the top spot. Of their total of 27 losses for the season. the Suns lost 6 game in the first 9 games after Shaq returned. After that, the team that won 15 of their last 20 regular season games. The schedule was tougher in the first nine games he returned, but using Shaq at the high post and other blunders didn't help.

There is hope that Shaq will be in better condition than a year ago, but at 10.6 rpg in 28.7 minutes (0.36.7 per minute) and 61.1% shooting, he can be useful even when recovering from an injury.

From a health standpoint, the Suns will add a Hill who should be as healthy as he was in his pre-appendectomy period (a period where he averaged just under 16 ppg). GG was not much help at SF whereas this is a better fit than Barnes.

The Rosie Glasses view does not discount that bad things MIGHT happen, but the GLOOM AND DOOM view is sure they will .

 

[nowagimp]

Should they give all the tickets back since they are doomed?

Doomed? Hmmm, I guess that if you define not winning the west as doomed, then lots of teams are doomed, all but 1 (in the west). By that definition the suns have apparently been doomed since '93. As far as giving back all the tickets, thats funny, the knicks dont give back all the tickets. Suns fans seem a bit spoiled if "doomed" is not having a chance to win the west this year. Just enjoy watching the rookies develop, you wanted it, now you have it, enjoy.

 

[Irish]

Doomed? Hmmm, I guess that if you define not winning the west as doomed, then lots of teams are doomed, all but 1 (in the west). By that definition the suns have apparently been doomed since '93. As far as giving back all the tickets, thats funny, the knicks dont give back all the tickets. Suns fans seem a bit spoiled if "doomed" is not having a chance to win the west this year. Just enjoy watching the rookies develop, you wanted it, now you have it, enjoy.

A lot of time people try to pour cold water on Rosie Glasses and end up making it sound like the Suns have no chance. From what I can tell, there are a lot of teams that need on a few breaks go there way and they win it all or few go the other way and have an inglorious exit.

Winning the West matters because home court matters, but being prepared for the playoffs matters more. I think the Suns are better suited for the playoffs than in the past, but it will take several things go right to get over hump..