Week 15 Clinching Scenarios

[TheCardinal]

I'm not sure if I have them all worked out just yet, but this is what I see so far. To clinch at least a wildcard next weekend, any of the following should do:

ARI win + DAL loss
or
ARI win + PHI loss + GB win against BUF (Wk15)
or
ARI win + GB loss to ATL (Wk14) + DET loss
or
ARI win + GB win against BUF (Wk15) + DET loss (in case of DAL-PHI tie)

Should we get an 11th win, SF cannot catch us, and we can finish no lower than 2nd in the West. Don't assume that PHI/DAL/DET are automatically unable to pass us with a fifth loss, even with our head-to-head wins. DET can win the North at 11-5 and drop GB into the wildcard tie-breaker. And an ARI-GB-DAL tie-breaker could go to strength-of-victory if Dallas' loss is IND and one of Green Bay's losses is BUF. A GB win over BUF should ensure that we would win all tie-breakers outside our division. If it somehow does come down to strength-of-victory between ARI-DAL-GB, we could only miss the playoffs if DAL wins the first step, then GB. If GB wins the first step, we would be the 6-seed over DAL on head-to-head. Right now we hold a massive lead on DAL in strength-of-victory, and could potentially even clinch that to clean up some of the scenarios involving GB.

 

[Shaggy]

So what your saying is we need to win next week.

 

[TigToad]

Having the tie breakers on the Lions, Cowboys and Eagles will make it hard for us to not earn, at least, a WC birth with one more win. We need to beat Seattle at home and win one of the other two to win the division... and doesn't that game against the 49ers look easier than a short-week game against the Rams?

I'm not sure if I have them all worked out just yet, but this is what I see so far. To clinch at least a wildcard next weekend, any of the following should do:

ARI win + DAL loss
or
ARI win + PHI loss + GB win against BUF (Wk15)
or
ARI win + GB loss to ATL (Wk14) + DET loss
or
ARI win + GB win against BUF (Wk15) + DET loss (in case of DAL-PHI tie)

Should we get an 11th win, SF cannot catch us, and we can finish no lower than 2nd in the West. Don't assume that PHI/DAL/DET are automatically unable to pass us with a fifth loss, even with our head-to-head wins. DET can win the North at 11-5 and drop GB into the wildcard tie-breaker. And an ARI-GB-DAL tie-breaker could go to strength-of-victory if Dallas' loss is IND and one of Green Bay's losses is BUF. A GB win over BUF should ensure that we would win all tie-breakers outside our division. If it somehow does come down to strength-of-victory between ARI-DAL-GB, we could only miss the playoffs if DAL wins the first step, then GB. If GB wins the first step, we would be the 6-seed over DAL on head-to-head. Right now we hold a massive lead on DAL in strength-of-victory, and could potentially even clinch that to clean up some of the scenarios involving GB.

 

[Cards_Campos]

I'm not sure if I have them all worked out just yet, but this is what I see so far. To clinch at least a wildcard next weekend, any of the following should do:

ARI win + DAL loss
or
ARI win + PHI loss + GB win against BUF (Wk15)
or
ARI win + GB loss to ATL (Wk14) + DET loss
or
ARI win + GB win against BUF (Wk15) + DET loss (in case of DAL-PHI tie)

Should we get an 11th win, SF cannot catch us, and we can finish no lower than 2nd in the West. Don't assume that PHI/DAL/DET are automatically unable to pass us with a fifth loss, even with our head-to-head wins. DET can win the North at 11-5 and drop GB into the wildcard tie-breaker. And an ARI-GB-DAL tie-breaker could go to strength-of-victory if Dallas' loss is IND and one of Green Bay's losses is BUF. A GB win over BUF should ensure that we would win all tie-breakers outside our division. If it somehow does come down to strength-of-victory between ARI-DAL-GB, we could only miss the playoffs if DAL wins the first step, then GB. If GB wins the first step, we would be the 6-seed over DAL on head-to-head. Right now we hold a massive lead on DAL in strength-of-victory, and could potentially even clinch that to clean up some of the scenarios involving GB.

I don't think any of this is true....even if you say we lose our last 2 because right now we have tie breakers over every team in the NFC including GB if we win out and of course we can still lose div if seattle wins out. But at 11-5 its impossible for us to lose out on wild card if Detroit dallas and us tie we have tie breakers over both. If Green Bay is wild card that means they lose to Detroit again because Green Bay cant lose division and be 11-5 if Detroit doesn't win out which mean Detroit would beat GB again....and GB conference record would be worse than ours. we only have 2 conference losses now Seattle and Atl....

Pretty hard if not impossible for us to miss if we get to 11 wins.

with the combination of who plays who we get in if we win next week and lose last 2...just may be a 5th seed...which Is good...we would play NFC south winner.....check out playoff predictor at ESPN

But we could be 12-4 and only loss to Seattle and still get 5th seed! And play the Saints in New Orleans...which would suck

But could get 1 or 2 seed if we lose to Seattle but win other 2 games....and Rams upset Seattle in final game!!!

 

[AzFan13]

Having the tie breakers on the Lions, Cowboys and Eagles will make it hard for us to not earn, at least, a WC birth with one more win. We need to beat Seattle at home and win one of the other two to win the division... and doesn't that game against the 49ers look easier than a short-week game against the Rams?

I had it down as a loss. The way they're already talking new coach and in complete melt down mode it might be our best bet for a win out of the 3. I can't see not getting to a lest 11 this year maybe even 13.

We can beat the Rams. Seattle at our place will be hard but man I bet our team leaves it all out there for that one. SF might just have totally given up by the last game if they haven't already.

 

[Bert]

Having the tie breakers on the Lions, Cowboys and Eagles will make it hard for us to not earn, at least, a WC birth with one more win. We need to beat Seattle at home and win one of the other two to win the division... and doesn't that game against the 49ers look easier than a short-week game against the Rams?

With Stanton at QB nothing looks easy, but I get what you mean. The Rams look insanely tough right now, the Niners are falling apart at the seams, and I love every second of it. That being said how much would they love to be the team that screws us last game of the season (also JH's last game as coach of the Niners) That game's gonna be brutal. Just win 1 baby, I dont care which one. Anything else is a bonus.

 

[TheCardinal]

I do agree that it would be VERY difficult to miss the playoffs at 11-5, but I do see a couple ways.

1) DAL-PHI tie, then win out, both going 11-4-1, DET wins out (12-4), GB only loses to DET (12-4), SEA beats us and at least one other team (11-5).

2) DAL beats PHI, loses to IND, beats WSH (11-5), PHI wins last two (11-5) winning East, GB loses to BUF and another team (11-5), DET wins North (11-5 or 12-4), SEA beats us and at least one other team (11-5). The wildcard tie-breaker would be between DAL-GB-ARI (no head-to-head sweep) and we would all be 8-4 in the NFC. Not enough common games. Next is strength-of-victory, which we currently lead, but could change.

If PHI beats DAL, we are good, because then one of Dallas' remaining wins HAS to be against IND to get to 11-5 and they would lose the conference-record tie-breaker in 3-way tie with GB and us.

If GB beats BUF, we are good, because we would have them on conference-record as well should we all finish 11-5.

 

[JCSunsfan]

gotta beat Seattle at home.

 

[Iceman]

Win in St. Louis Thursday would be the best scenario right now!

 

[Chaz]

I do agree that it would be VERY difficult to miss the playoffs at 11-5, but I do see a couple ways.

1) DAL-PHI tie, then win out, both going 11-4-1, DET wins out (12-4), GB only loses to DET (12-4), SEA beats us and at least one other team (11-5).

2) DAL beats PHI, loses to IND, beats WSH (11-5), PHI wins last two (11-5) winning East, GB loses to BUF and another team (11-5), DET wins North (11-5 or 12-4), SEA beats us and at least one other team (11-5). The wildcard tie-breaker would be between DAL-GB-ARI (no head-to-head sweep) and we would all be 8-4 in the NFC. Not enough common games. Next is strength-of-victory, which we currently lead, but could change.

If PHI beats DAL, we are good, because then one of Dallas' remaining wins HAS to be against IND to get to 11-5 and they would lose the conference-record tie-breaker in 3-way tie with GB and us.

If GB beats BUF, we are good, because we would have them on conference-record as well should we all finish 11-5.

Second scenario doesn't work. AZ would knock out Dallas if they are tied on head-to-head. Dallas/Philly tie is the only way I can see Cards missing the playoffs with 11 wins.

 

[TheCardinal]

Second scenario doesn't work. AZ would knock out Dallas if they are tied on head-to-head. Dallas/Philly tie is the only way I can see Cards missing the playoffs with 11 wins.

In a three-way tie with Dallas and Green Bay, head-to-head wouldn't apply since you'd need one team to sweep to advance or have been swept to be knocked out. It is similar to how the current playoff picture has Seattle in ahead of Dallas even though the Cowboys beat them; Detroit forces a 3-way tie, and without a sweep, it instead goes to conference record.

For our scenarios:
ARI-PHI-DET: Arizona advances on sweep.
ARI-PHI-GB: Philly knocked out having been swept.
ARI-DAL-DET: Arizona advances on sweep.
ARI-DAL-GB: No sweep, no one swept, so it goes to conference record.

The Cardinals are still the best on conference record at the moment, as we have the worst AFC record (3-1, versus 3-0 for DAL and GB) -- the worst AFC record = best NFC record for tied teams; it's just easier to count up four games instead of 12. BUT, if the Cowboys' loss is to Indy and one of the Packers' losses is to Buffalo, we could all have the same 3-1 AFC record (and thus same NFC record) in an 11-5 tie. Without enough common games, it would go to strength-of-victory (SOV) which we lead Dallas by a large margin, but could potentially change. It is closer with GB but wouldn't matter for clinching purposes, since if GB wins the tie-breaker for the 5-seed, it would then go back to the start between ARI-DAL for the 6-seed which we would then win on head-to-head.

If the Cowboys lose to Philly, then to reach 11-5, the Cowboys would HAVE to beat Indy (and have a 4-0 AFC record) thereby losing all conference-record tie-breakers. Likewise, if Green Bay was to beat Buffalo (going 4-0 in the AFC) and finish 11-5, we would have them covered in conference record.

 

[Chaz]

Forgot about the three way tie issue.

This appears to have all the scenarios to clinch this week.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/cardinalsclinch.html

 

[TheCardinal]

Forgot about the three way tie issue.

This appears to have all the scenarios to clinch this week.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/cardinalsclinch.html

Wow, that site is intense about their scenarios!
I read through them and they look consistent with my original post with one exception (although I didn't go through the ones requiring a tie). The only one which I cannot be sure of is Case#7 for the 6-seed. They say ARI win + DET loss + SEA loss clinches it. . . I'm not sure how the SEA loss /SF win changes anything, unless it has something to do with clinching a SOV tie-breaker.

 

[seesred]

Just win Thursday !
GBR
40

 

[MrYeahBut]

Wow, that site is intense about their scenarios!

It boggles the mind.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Love the scenario work, TheCardinal.

So, at this point, we could beat last years record, win 11, and still miss the playoffs. That would suck beyond suck. Especially since a 6 win team could make it.

On that note, I haven't seen this anywhere, including the genius talking heads. But, if we hold off Seattle, they might be the 11-5 team that has to play a road game against the crappy NFC South winner. And it could be New Orleans. In 2010, the 11-5 Saints had to travel to the 7-9 Seahawks, the year after winning the Super Bowl, and got beat. How ironic would that be?

 

[daves]

Love the scenario work, TheCardinal.

I echo that sentiment!

So, at this point, we could beat last years record, win 11, and still miss the playoffs.

If you recall, last year even had the Cardinals won the final game against the 49ers, they still would've missed the playoffs on tie-breakers. This was known before the end of the game. Still wish they'd have beaten the 49ers!!

That would suck beyond suck.

Indeed. But for all practical purposes, if the Cardinals beat the Rams, they're in. If they then beat the Seahawks, they win the division. And if they then beat the 49ers, they win home field advantage.

Barring a Cowboys-Eagles tie, or a long, specific sequence of outcomes setting up a perverse multi-way tie among teams with 11-5 records, winning any of their remaining games puts the Cardinals in the playoffs.

It's nice to have taken care of business earlier in the season and have the tie-breaker advantages!

Especially since a 6 win team could make it.

Indeed - that's part of the reason that some 11-5 team may very well miss the playoffs in the NFC. Thanks in part to the fact that NFC South sucks so much, there are a lot of 9+ win teams in the NFC right now.

...dbs

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

If CARDS, Whiners and Hags all finish 10-6: the Cards are out of the playoffs and the other two fac each other in the WC game!

 

[Jim Otis]

We need to win 2 of the final 3 and we will be in no matter what alll the other teams do .

 

[TheCardinal]

You're welcome! It's my pleasure to work through these scenarios, and always more fun for clinching possibilities in Week 15 than our usual elimination scenarios.

The news may be even better than in the original post. Earlier I said that an ARI win + DAL loss clinches playoff spot. Dallas would have to win out to catch us, which would include an AFC win against IND, dooming the Cowboys to lose any tie-breaker with us, even with GB in a 3-way scenario.

Now, it looks like even an ARI win + PHI loss clinches as well, even WITHOUT the previously specified GB/DET stuff. For a wildcard spot, an 11-5 Philly team cannot jump us in a 2-way tie (head-to-head), in a 3-way tie with DET (we swept), or in a 3-way tie with GB (PHI got swept). The only way to possibly mess us up would be if they won the East at 11-5, and DAL was the wildcard contender at 11-5 (with an AFC loss to IND), in a 3-way tie with us and GB (with an AFC loss to BUF). Then DAL could potentially jump us if they made up enough ground on the strength-of-victory tiebreaker.

Of the 11 victories by each team, four are common opponents and cancel each other out (STL/NYG/PHI/WSH). The Cowboys would have TEN/NO/HOU/SEA/JAC/NYG/CHI versus our wins against SD/SF/OAK/DAL/DET/KC/STL. Filling in the current records plus requisite wins for this scenario, Dallas' victims have 39 wins plus another 13 more possible. The Cardinals' victims already have 56 wins in the bank (plus 8 more possible) meaning that if my math is accurate, our lead would be insurmountable. Yes, GB can possibly win the SOV tie-breaker for the 5-seed, but then it reverts back to head-to-head between ARI and DAL for the 6-seed, which we'd win.

So, my revised clinching scenarios for Week 15:
ARI win + DAL loss
or
ARI win + PHI loss
or
(if DAL-PHI tie) ARI win + GBP win at BUF (Wk15) + DET loss
or
(if DAL-PHI tie) ARI win + GBP loss vs ATL (Wk14) + DET loss

I still can't figure out how the SNF/SEA game could add another possibility according to the other webpage. . .

 

[TheCardinal]

More fun with math. . .
It looks like the NFL released the official Week 15 clinching scenarios.

ARI win + DAL/PHI non-tie
or ARI win + DET loss + GB win/tie
or ARI win + DET loss + ARI clinches SOV tie-breaker over GB

However, I would argue that with a DET loss, we would have already clinched the SOV tie-breaker over GB in the only scenario where it would matter for making/missing the playoffs. Basically, you would have to assume a DAL/PHI tie, then both finish 11-4-1. DET would have to win out to go 11-5, beating GB and winning the North. GB would have to finish exactly at 11-5, losing to BUF and beating TB (if you reverse these, we are ahead on conference record). Only then would it come down to SOV between ARI/GB for the 6th seed (also have to give SEA a win over either SF/STL). Philadelphia is a common victim, so I drop them to make it easier.

The Packers' other ten victims (NYJ/CHI/MIN/MIA/CRL/CHI/MIN/NE/ATL/TB) would have 52.5 wins + 10 guaranteed (where two victims play each other, or have to win to fulfill the scenario), and another 9 potential wins. The Cardinals' other ten victims (SD/NYG/SF/OAK/WSH/DAL/STL/DET/KC/STL) would have 61 wins + 11.5 guaranteed and another 7 potential wins. That means GB has 62.5 (+9 possible, for max of 71.5) versus ARI already at 72.5 (+7 possible). Our lead would be insurmountable in this scenario. If you start taking away some of the DAL potential wins, however, GB can overtake us for a higher seed on SOV, but then DAL is not 11-4-1 and not ahead of us. We would still be in the playoffs, and thus clinched.

I submit my further-revised Week 15 clinching scenarios:

ARI win + DAL loss
or
ARI win + PHI loss
or
ARI win + DET loss (in case DAL/PHI tie)

 

[Cards_Campos]

Lol....like I said. I didn't think it was this hard.

Just announced. Cards win and dal-Phil doesn't end in a tie and they are in. That's it