Peter Kings take on Lindley in TMQB this morning...
http://cnnsi.com/2012/writers/peter_king/05/01/draft/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a2
Keep in mind that history says more than half the players picked in any draft will wash out. Just three of the 11 passers picked three years ago -- Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman -- have had any impact whatsoever.
This year, I think one of the low-round guys has a chance to makes waves, and maybe early. The order of the rookie impact players:
1. Robert Griffin III, Washington (first round, second pick overall). He goes to a more NFL-ready team than Andrew Luck, with a better line and backfield than the Colts, and a better defense to keep him in more games.
2. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis (first round, first pick overall). Remember: Peyton Manning went 3-13 as a rookie. The Colts shouldn't look for wins this year out of Luck, but rather progress. They'll see lots of it.
3. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland (first round, 22nd overall). The Browns were hot on Weeden through the pre-draft process, and I'm convinced if they got wind of someone trading ahead of them to pick the 28-year-old passer, they would have trumped the bid. Colt McCoy will take the first snap of training camp, but he's going to have be near perfect to hold off Weeden from starting by Oct. 1.
4. Ryan Lindley, Arizona (sixth round, 186th overall). Whoa, you say. Pump the brakes, pal. Nope. Lindley started 49 games in a pro-style offense in college, and the Cardinals aren't sold that Kevin Kolb is the long-term answer. Something tells me Lindley will have his shot to play by midseason.
5. Ryan Tannehill, Miami (first round, eighth overall). This is a good thing, people. Joe Philbin isn't going to push his first-round trophy into savior duty early. He made it clear to me that the best player will play from among Tannehill, Matt Moore and David Garrard.
I met a fan Saturday at FinFest, the Dolphin annual fan event at Sun Life Stadium, who told me he hopes Miami sits him two years and develops him the way the Packers did with Aaron Rodgers. Amazing. A sane fan. The Dolphins won't wait that long, but I could see Tannehill sitting the first year ... unless he has such a big edge in the playbook -- he told me 75 percent of it is the same as his college playbook -- that he makes mental jumps over the incumbents.
6. Russell Wilson, Seattle (third round, 75th overall). How about GM John Schneider telling me Wilson was one of the three best players he scouted in 2011? That, plus the fact that neither Matt Flynn nor Tarvaris Jackson have a stranglehold on the starting job, tells me Wilson will have a fair chance to win the job at some point this season.
7. Nick Foles, Philadelphia (third round, 88th overall). Mike Vick gets hurt a lot. Mike Kafka was just OK when he had his chance last year. Trent Edwards is just off the street. If Foles has a great training camp (I have no idea if he will or not), he'll be on Andy Reid's mind when the inevitable happens.
8. Brock Osweiler, Denver (second round, 57th overall). Hey, it's no lock Peyton Manning's going to make it through the season whole. And if the Broncos didn't think Osweiler was better than Caleb Hanie, they wouldn't have picked him in the second round.
9. Kirk Cousins, Washington (fourth round, 102nd overall). He has to beat out a veteran who offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan trusts, Rex Grossman, and Griffin will have to get hurt or be awful for Cousins to play. I don't get the pick.
10. Chandler Harnish, Indianapolis (seventh round, 253rd overall). Luck insurance. Likely a practice-squadder behind Luck and Drew Stanton.
11. B.J. Coleman, Green Bay (seventh round, 242nd overall). See Harnish. Hard to see how he'll beat out Graham Harrell for No. 2.