What are the odds of those three teams getting the top three picks?

[cardsunsfan]

I can see one making it in the top three but all three? What are the odds? 1 in 500? Less? 5% is plausible (which was Portlands odds) but to have all three of those teams leapfrog the top three? Something seems fishy...

 

[Griffin]

I can see one making it in the top three but all three? What are the odds? 1 in 500? Less? 5% is plausible (which was Portlands odds) but to have all three of those teams leapfrog the top three? Something seems fishy...

Blazers had a 18.3% chance of getting a top 3 pick, Sonics with 29.2% and Hawks with 37.8%. So that's 2.02% probability that those three teams would all end up in top 3, or about 1 in 50, if my math is right.

A better questions would be, what is the probability that none of the three teams with the three worst records would end up with a top 3 pick. The probability of that is 8.39% or about 1 in 12.

 

[BirdMan21]

Blazers had a 18.3% chance of getting a top 3 pick, Sonics with 29.2% and Hawks with 37.8%. So that's 2.02% probability that those three teams would all end up in top 3, or about 1 in 50, if my math is right.

A better questions would be, what is the probability that none of the three teams with the three worst records would end up with a top 3 pick. The probability of that is 8.39% or about 1 in 12.

Its actually way lower than that:

Portland had a 5.3% chance at the first pick, Seattle had a 15.7% chance of the second pick, and Atlanta had a 13.3% chance of the third pick. So that works out to about a .011% chance of occuring.

As far as the top three all falling out....Milwaukee had a 4.1% chance of having the 6th pick, so that would only occur when three teams jumped into the lottery forcing everyone down (what happened this year)

 

[Griffin]

Its actually way lower than that:

Portland had a 5.3% chance at the first pick, Seattle had a 15.7% chance of the second pick, and Atlanta had a 13.3% chance of the third pick. So that works out to about a .011% chance of occuring.

True, if you care about the actual order of the top 3.

As far as the top three all falling out....Milwaukee had a 4.1% chance of having the 6th pick, so that would only occur when three teams jumped into the lottery forcing everyone down (what happened this year)

Good point. On Wiki they put 8.4%. Not sure which is correct, due to the conditional probabilities.

 

[BirdMan21]

True, if you care about the actual order of the top 3.

Good point. On Wiki they put 8.4%. Not sure which is correct, due to the conditional probabilities.

Ya, your number is correct for them all ending up top three.....I just think it is more amazing if you look at how unlikely the outcome we ended up with is.

 

[tobiazz]

I haven't taken math for a long time, but there should be 30! (2.6x10^32) possible combinations, with varying likelihood, so the chance of any particular draft order will be slim.

 

[asudevil83]

Ya, your number is correct for them all ending up top three.....I just think it is more amazing if you look at how unlikely the outcome we ended up with is.

my math may be off on this.....but i have it as a 1% chance the top 3 ended up as they were, and a 1% chance the 4-6 picks ended up the way they did.

 

[elindholm]

I haven't taken math for a long time, but there should be 30! (2.6x10^32) possible combinations, with varying likelihood, so the chance of any particular draft order will be slim.

There are only 14 teams in the lottery, and some orders are more likely than others. But the basic point is valid: The probability of any one particular order is extremely low.

 

[tobiazz]

There are only 14 teams in the lottery, and some orders are more likely than others. But the basic point is valid: The probability of any one particular order is extremely low.

Oh yeah, duh. Okay, 14! or 87 billion combinations of varying likelihood. The order that played out is actually one of the more likely ones (relatively) because none of the teams toward the end of the lottery (which have smaller percentages) moved up. It is pretty amazing that all three of the bottom teams were shifted out though.

 

[hora]

Blazers had a 18.3% chance of getting a top 3 pick, Sonics with 29.2% and Hawks with 37.8%. So that's 2.02% probability that those three teams would all end up in top 3, or about 1 in 50, if my math is right.

Actually, I don't think that is right, since those probabilities aren't independant.

The straightforward way to do this is to enumerate the different ways Portland, Seattle, and Atlanta can end up in the top three, calculate the probability of each, and sum them up. That's doable because there are only six combinations possible:

1. Portland, Seattle, Atlanta
2. Portland, Atlanta, Seattle
3. Seattle, Portland, Atlanta
4. Seattle, Atlanta, Portland
5. Atlanta, Portland, Seattle
6. Atlanta, Seattle, Portland

For the first combination:

% Portland gets #1 = 53/1001 = 5.3%
% Seattle gets #2 given Portland #1 = 5.3% * (88/948) = 5.3% * 9.3% = 0.49%
% Atlanta gets #3 given Portland #1 and Seattle #2 = 0.49% * (119/860) = 0.068%

So the probability of combination 1 is 0.068%. Doing the same thing for the other combinations, the total chance of any one of these combinations coming up is about 0.44%.

We could do the same analysis for the odds that all of the top three teams remain in the top three, but we can save ourselves some trouble by just looking at the published odds for Atlanta remaining at #4 (which is equivalent to the top three remaining in the top three slots), which is 9.9%.

 

[BirdMan21]

If you go to nba.com or to wikipedia to look up the lottery it has the probability of each team getting the specific picks. Picks 4-6 had to go the order they did simply cause 3 teams jumped up. So the probability of 4-6 occuring in the order they did is 100%, but the probability of all them droping is about 4%.

 

[elindholm]

Probably the simplest way to think about it is that there are 14*13*12 = 2184 possible outcomes for the lottery, because once the top three teams are determined, everything else is forced. As tobiazz pointed out, the combination that we wound up with was among the more likely, since none of the ultra-longshots moved up. On the other hand, the favorites were all shut out, so it probably comes close to balancing out.

1/2184 = 0.046%, so offhand I'd guess that probably this outcome was in the 0.04 to 0.05% range.

 

[nowagimp]

Actually, I don't think that is right, since those probabilities aren't independant.

You are right, they are not independent but related events, but, consider this:

Tanking teams were warned, they devalue the NBA product. The top tanking teams were all punished against the "odds". Boston(let me sit down pierce), Milwaukee(Red sits right after JJ went down, oops!), and Memphis(no need to explain). None were in the top 3 in the end, yet all had the greatest odds of being in the top 3. Add to that a screw of the suns(1/3 chance of that as well) sterns favorite team/fan base. If you bought a lotto ticket how would you feel about them opening the envelope in stead of picking numbered balls in a process that is monitored by gaming oversight? You really have to be seriously naive to think a billion dollar business doesnt manipulate their value upwards any legal way possible. The NBA wants these things:

1) dominant team like spurs lakers, bulls makes the NBA more money, parity is the enemy of profits.

2) Talking bad about the refs will devalue the integrity of the product, gotta stop that talking to the press, its gets all over the internet. Note Duncan said very little to the press about crawford. After Amare called Bowen dirty, he received no calls going to the hoop in game 3, chance or screw?

3) Tanking for the lottery cannot be tolerated, damages the credibility/value of the late season games, races for the seeds. This also devalues the product. Check out the records in the last 20 games for the celtics, bucks, grizz. Yeah they made the top 3 seeded spots, but all were defeated in their efforts to get them. Almost like a flipped nickel landing on its edge. OK not quite, but you get the picture.

4) The NBA needs stars for the jerseys, bobbleheads, the belief that this current cast of players, teams are somehow "the greatest" to sell more ticket$$$, memorabilia(300M(?)). Thus, the suck up to Duncan, perhaps the NBA's most successful superstar, who was a FIBA failure cause he jumps into the defender to get the call, and to even get his shot off against KT(a real shotblocker there). FIBA doesnt call that a foul, and neither did the showtime NBA. Thats all a part of stern engineered Basketbrawl. The NBA has been looking for the next michael jordan for a very long time to give the league an image, boost profits. Advertizing dollars tanked after the brawls, still havent come back at all, that why ratings dont matter, no one will pay for the commercials when the ratings can beat sit com reruns. On TNT, Tmobile was the only advertizer I remember, other than the NBA itself.

Any major "business for profit" will punish employees for damaging the value of the company, why should the NBA be different? It could be in foul calls(or better noncalls,as every NBA apologist says "they called the same number of fouls"), it could be in the lottery "selections", suspensions, whatever, its all legally in play for the league to manipulate. I laugh when I hear posters deriding a conspiracy theorist. What makes the NBA different than Exxon in legal manipulation for profit, do they aspire to a higher level of integrity with less profits? Oh yeah, the NBA has such integrity, thats it! In the end, the players will shut up, and behave regardless, they are making millions, they can always leave if they dont like it. Amare made a good move playing for USA basketball, he may get some extra calls(versus very few of them, there is a carrot and a stick there) next year for it, but really its politics.

The long odds that tanking, lowered seeded teams were punished, combined with manipulative foul calls and noncalls in suns AND non suns games make the NBA laughable as a pure competition.

The NBA is an ugly entertainment business, its not sports anymore. The but the but kicking admininstered by FIBA teams has exposed the NBA for what it is, not finely honed balanced competition, but entertainment. Its a waste of my time anymore, Im done with it after 35 years.

David stern even thinks fans are so dumb that they cant see manipulation right in front of their eyes. I didnt want to believe it, but it is so highly probable that these events were manipulated, I've totally lost my belief in the purity of competition in the NBA.

Its a pity that a team like the suns cannot be enjoyed in a medium of pure competition. I will miss the suns and their great, unselfish, brand of showtime basketball, but I will not let David Stern jerk me around anymore with hope that its a fair competition.

I will watch not one minute of thump and grind, jump into the defender basketball, with 70% "no call" officiating. Its not basketball as I know it, FIBA and the NCAA are much closer to the sport I played and grew up with.

 

[Cheesebeef]

1) dominant team like spurs lakers, bulls makes the NBA more money, parity is the enemy of profits.

2) Talking bad about the refs will devalue the integrity of the product, gotta stop that talking to the press, its gets all over the internet. Note Duncan said very little to the press about crawford. After Amare called Bowen dirty, he received no calls going to the hoop in game 3, chance or screw?

1) sorry, but I can buy the Bulls and maybe the Lakers (although their ratings were NOTHING compared to the Bulls and ratings is what the NBA is all about - TV is the money tree in ALL sports) but the NBA WANTS the Spurs?! That's pretty far fetched considering how unbelievably boring they are, which is bore out in consistently being part of the lowest rated series in the last three decades. Having an NBA Finals that NO ONE watches isn't a boon to the NBA.

2) Duncan said very little to the press? He said more than Amare did - that story was up and running for over half a week with Duncan talking about Crawford wanting to fight him, then wondering if he's going to get punished for what happened to Crawford, etc. etc.

sorry you're going to tune out and that's your right, but doing so because you think the league is fixed (for reasons that actually HURT the league) just seems like the reaction of a 6 six year old.

 

[hora]

Good point. On Wiki they put 8.4%. Not sure which is correct, due to the conditional probabilities.

I'm pretty sure wikipedia is wrong here and that using the odds for the Bucks landing at #6 is correct.

 

[nashman]

Its a fix, why else do they hide the so called balls? just come out with sealed envelopes? If this thing was done right they would be drawing balls via lottery style on camera so everyone knows how they come out LIVE!

 

[tobiazz]

Probably the simplest way to think about it is that there are 14*13*12 = 2184 possible outcomes for the lottery, because once the top three teams are determined, everything else is forced.

Doh, again. I looked at my post again and realized it should be 14*13*12 instead of 14! since only three picks are determined by ping-pong balls. You beat me to it. Sorry for the misinformation folks. I've been posting without thinking today.

 

[Errntknght]

Hora,

1. Portland, Seattle, Atlanta
2. Portland, Atlanta, Seattle
3. Seattle, Portland, Atlanta
4. Seattle, Atlanta, Portland
5. Atlanta, Portland, Seattle
6. Atlanta, Seattle, Portland

For the first combination:

% Portland gets #1 = 53/1001 = 5.3%
% Seattle gets #2 given Portland #1 = 5.3% * (88/948) = 5.3% * 9.3% = 0.49%
% Atlanta gets #3 given Portland #1 and Seattle #2 = 0.49% * (119/860) = 0.068%

A slight error - of the 1001 possible combinations only 1000 are used. It doesn't make a significant difference in the outcome. I calculated the chances using a simulation with 10 million random trials. 44,372 of those had Portland, Seattle and Atlanta in the first three slots in some order and that is the same result you got - 0.44%.

I also concur that the chances that the worst three teams get slots 1,2 and 3 is exactly the same as the odds that the fourth worst team gets slot 4, so 9.9%.

 

[tobiazz]

1) sorry, but I can buy the Bulls and maybe the Lakers (although their ratings were NOTHING compared to the Bulls and ratings is what the NBA is all about - TV is the money tree in ALL sports) but the NBA WANTS the Spurs?! That's pretty far fetched considering how unbelievably boring they are, which is bore out in consistently being part of the lowest rated series in the last three decades. Having an NBA Finals that NO ONE watches isn't a boon to the NBA.

Does Stern get a percentage of the league profits or just a fat salary? Probably both.

 

[tobiazz]

Its a fix, why else do they hide the so called balls? just come out with sealed envelopes? If this thing was done right they would be drawing balls via lottery style on camera so everyone knows how they come out LIVE!

I really don't think the draft is fixed at this point in time, but I suppose it could be. Each team has a representative in the ping-pong ball room. They can probably see the numbers on the balls after they come out.

The funny thing is there are (unsubstantiated) rumors that Stern hates the Celtics. He also admitted after the draft that he was mad about the tanking teams and would like to try to solve the problem. It could also be argued that he dislikes the Suns and likes the Spurs. Of course, none of this constitutes evidence and it would make little sense for Stern to favor small market teams over big market teams, unless he had some personal vendetta and didn't care about lost profits. So this conspiracy theory is more likely than the one in which we didn't land on the Moon, but it's pretty far-fetched.

 

[nashman]

Why again must this lottery be held in secret then? If and I mean IF their are really reps from all the teams why would they not just televise this so everyone can see its not fixed? I for one do not believe something just because someone says it, I would much rather actually watch the balls than some jackass opening envelopes which suggests predetermined picks.

 

[tobiazz]

Why again must this lottery be held in secret then? If and I mean IF their are really reps from all the teams why would they not just televise this so everyone can see its not fixed? I for one do not believe something just because someone says it, I would much rather actually watch the balls than some jackass opening envelopes which suggests predetermined picks.

It's held in secret because the balls determine which team gets the top pick first. The envelopes we get to see build suspense by going in reverse order. They should at least show video of the ping-pong ball room after the envelopes are opened, even if it's just shown online.

 

[hora]

Hora,

A slight error - of the 1001 possible combinations only 1000 are used. It doesn't make a significant difference in the outcome. I calculated the chances using a simulation with 10 million random trials. 44,372 of those had Portland, Seattle and Atlanta in the first three slots in some order and that is the same result you got - 0.44%.

I also concur that the chances that the worst three teams get slots 1,2 and 3 is exactly the same as the odds that the fourth worst team gets slot 4, so 9.9%.

Oops, yeah, thanks for catching that error.

 

[nowagimp]

It's held in secret because the balls determine which team gets the top pick first. The envelopes we get to see build suspense by going in reverse order. They should at least show video of the ping-pong ball room after the envelopes are opened, even if it's just shown online.

There is no proof that there are any balls at all, certainly david stern doesnt have any balls, except those poopy synthetic ones he tried to pawn on the players/fans. Stern is a lawyer dictator comissioner, only one in major sports, and he's an eastern liberal immitation of sheriff joe arpaio, "get the lawbreakers", it makes me sick. The cost of his manipulations is so high, he IS the cause of the thuggery in the NBA, he IS the one who changes the rules to grappling levels with massive numbers of no calls, and vanquished the high flyers that made the game so exciting. Why would any player with the ability to sky do that anymore, they could lose a career worth millions. Yeah, I like that commercial, dwayne wade gets knocked down 7 times, gets up 8 times. He got up kind of slow the last few times, he looks beat up 4 years in the league and all. I guess Dwayne will have to learn to play with his feet on the ground if he expects to stay in the league. He just needs to take some pointers from the new musclebound kobe, who doesnt sky anymore, but uses his elbows/newfound muscle, the new tools of the NBA "superstars" of the new milennium. No one cares about vertical jump athleticism anymore, you cant use it in David Sterns NBA without immediately threatening your career. Oh I forgot, some of you guys really think shawn marion CANT jump over oberto for a dunk. That oberto is a real stud, a world class athlete.

One more caveat that was pointed out to me by a former NBA fan: seattle and portland, in 1/12 odds, got the two top picks and were the two teams with severe fan disinterest, even to the point of threaterning the financial viability of these franchises. Just where do you think these franchises could go, oklahoma city? Durant and Oden should help their scenarios hugely, my that is convenient, and allows the punishment of the tankers(memphis, boston, milwaukee) as well. Apparently david stern got many things he wanted in the long odds of the lottery.

Im sure Brandon Roy was sent to keep an eye on david stern and his ping pong balls, he'd know what to look for in a crooked setup(my stomach actually hurts from laughing). Weighted dice, weighted balls, whats the difference? The difference is that there is no oversight, maybe not even sight at all, over the NBA lottery. But you know all this conspiracy theory stuff is so far fetched, kinda like 1 in 12 odds? All this talk of ratings is crap, the local station ratings are what is being paid for, not the national ratings. They dont give a crap whether AZ fans watch the final, its a state of 6million, 30% smaller than new jersey. I'm sure detroit(15 mil in michigan) and san antonio(25 mil in texas) will be able to turn out a few ratings in their local markets. After all, the NY knicks do that every year with crappy teams that play just as ugly as any spurs team.

 

[Errntknght]

The only reason I don't think Stern manipulates the draft is that the team owners have a significant stake in the details of the outcome and he holds office at their pleasure. Of course, they all have regard for the welfare of the whole league but they have even more regard for the success of their team so I can't see them going along with fixing the most valuable picks in the draft.

For years the conspiracy buffs have claimed they favor the huge market teams, citing the Knicks acquisition of Ewing as proof positive of that. Now Portland get Oden (presumeably) and Seattle Durant - and that is further proof of a conspiracy? Oh yeah, conspiracy theorists predicted that!

Incidentally, teams tanking proves that owners don't believe the lottery is fixed. And since they have to collective power to have the lottery operated with all the oversight they want and they have a strong interest in maximizing their own chances I don't believe for a minute that Stern has the opportunity to rig the draft.