What is the plan?

[1tinsoldier]

just listened to first minute of Igor's post game interview for tonight's game.
in his explanation for the loss he emphasized "defending without fouling" three times!

last month, i emphasized that the players need to be told to foul out once in a while
-- that instead of high-fiving Bridges for picking up his 5th foul when no one else was being aggressive,
he scolded Bridges, and that's why Bridges threw up his hands

so. i ask:
1. when the Suns look like they aren't trying hard enough, are they lazy or trying to "defend without fouling"?
2. when Ayton looks passive and has games with few or no fouls, is he being soft or trying to follow orders?

EJ and most people watching the games would tell Ayton, "damn, big guy, lay the hammer down and send a message to your opponents and teammates!" What is Igor telling him?

that's why MY PLAN includes not trading JJ or any of our young players with potential
until we see how they perform for the coach that replaces Igor -- sooner than later

 

[1tinsoldier]

just listened to the rest of Igor's post game interview.
seems like a bright guy.
college professor type.
with his accent, mumbling, and monotone NPR radio voice,
it was a little hard to make out everything he said,
but it struck me that he seems to know what he's talking about -- theoretically.
i thought, well he might be useful
AS AN ASSISTANT COACH

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yeah but build to what? That team has a low ceiling imo. No superstar power. Won’t attract a superstar bc no one to play with. Won’t be bad enough to get the top pick. They have to REALLY luck into a star, much less multiple stars.

All true. They did an incredible job of bouncing back from one of the worst sports management screw-ups of all time but I don't know where they can go from here.

 

[Hoop Head]

Holiday is literally the best defensive guard in the league.

I don't know if I'd go that far but he's a top 10 defender in the league right now. Part of the problem though is he started excelling on defense as New Orleans started moving him off the ball on offense. He's a great combo guard now and I think that would probably be for the best next to Booker after experimenting with him as a PG for so long. I don't think Booker will ever be moved back to SG entirely because of the ball handling and playmaking he's learned over the last year and a half. Holiday would be the top combo guard in terms of skill to pair with Booker but his contract is a bit much, that might make him available though.

 

[taz02]

I think it speaks to one of the following:

A) our stars aren’t as good as their stars (yes Ayton is young, but wasn’t Simmons a 1-and-done too?)

B) Igor sucks compared to brown

C) our supporting cast is worse than theirs (though the sixers supporting players were seemingly pretty young too in Dario, Covington, and McConnell)

D) some, or all, of the above

Is Booker the star we all hope he is?

If he is the cornerstone of a championship team we need to move quick to land players to support him and Ayton.

If Booker is not the guy, we should continue to be patient and hope for some luck in the draft.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Is Booker the star we all hope he is?

If he is the cornerstone of a championship team we need to move quick to land players to support him and Ayton.

If Booker is not the guy, we should continue to be patient and hope for some luck in the draft.

Who knows? Between missing games due to injury or playing horribly while injured, he's been less than we hoped. When he's fully healthy and up to speed, he's been spectacular but so far I'd say that amounts to less than half the time he's been in the league.

Nash had a lot of nagging injuries early in his career. Later in this career he swore off sugar (all processed foods I believe) and other than a long term recurring back problem, most of his little injuries disappeared. Perhaps Devin is still enjoying a typical 22 year's old diet of Big Macs and Cokes? If that's the case, with his desire to be great, maybe someone can convince him that nutrition is an important part of preparation. But that's all speculation on my part, for all I know he's already following a strict diet. Unfortunately, that suggests he's just made of glass and we're screwed.

 

[taz02]

Who knows? Between missing games due to injury or playing horribly while injured, he's been less than we hoped. When he's fully healthy and up to speed, he's been spectacular but so far I'd say that amounts to less than half the time he's been in the league.

Nash had a lot of nagging injuries early in his career. Later in this career he swore off sugar (all processed foods I believe) and other than a long term recurring back problem, most of his little injuries disappeared. Perhaps Devin is still enjoying a typical 22 year's old diet of Big Macs and Cokes? If that's the case, with his desire to be great, maybe someone can convince him that nutrition is an important part of preparation. But that's all speculation on my part, for all I know he's already following a strict diet. Unfortunately, that suggests he's just made of glass and we're screwed.

After you mentioned the 76ers as a blue print for the suns I looked at their recent record.

On the surface it appears that the addition of Embiid saw their record jump by 18 wins from 10 to 28. The addition of Simmons the following season added an additional 24 wins.

Prior to Booker being drafted the suns won 39 games. We added Booker then won 23,24 and 21. Then we added Ayton and are on pace to win 18.

I know there were injuries and at least one intentional tank in there but Booker has not moved the needle at all.

Booker:

Leads the team in scoring and assists

Is a below average defender

Leads the team in FGA but is fourth on the team in FG%

Leads the team in 3PA but is sixth on the team in 3p%. He was eighth before Canaan and Ariza were traded.

He is fifth on the team in rebounds

Leads the team in turnovers at 3.8.


If Booker is not the star we thought and not someone we can build a championship team around I agree with your previous assessment that patience should be the plan.

 

[AzStevenCal]

After you mentioned the 76ers as a blue print for the suns I looked at their recent record.

On the surface it appears that the addition of Embiid saw their record jump by 18 wins from 10 to 28. The addition of Simmons the following season added an additional 24 wins.

Prior to Booker being drafted the suns won 39 games. We added Booker then won 23,24 and 21. Then we added Ayton and are on pace to win 18.

I know there were injuries and at least one intentional tank in there but Booker has not moved the needle at all.

Booker:

Leads the team in scoring and assists

Is a below average defender

Leads the team in FGA but is fourth on the team in FG%

Leads the team in 3PA but is sixth on the team in 3p%. He was eighth before Canaan and Ariza were traded.

He is fifth on the team in rebounds

Leads the team in turnovers at 3.8.


If Booker is not the star we thought and not someone we can build a championship team around I agree with your previous assessment that patience should be the plan.

That's part of the problem with looking at stats rather than watching the games. Like I said, when Booker is fully healthy, he's an incredible player. He shoots with high efficiency even though he's often been the only threat on the floor. But he's RARELY fully healthy and we keep making the same freaking mistake by playing him anyway.

And while Embiid would have helped us, swap Devin and Joel and this team is still bad. Also, don't lose sight of the fact that he is a shooting guard, a GREAT shooting guard, who for more than a season now has been forced to play point guard with very little help around him. Expecting him to move the needle under these conditions is like expecting the forest fire to go out when you piss on it. It's not going to happen. So, I'm back to where I was, we don't know if our 22 year old leader is capable of becoming a number 1 on a championship level team.

 

[Mainstreet]

Once we decided to be bad, I wanted to see us do it the right way (IOW, the Hinkie way) so I jumped on the tanking bandwagon fairly early. And once the 76ers openly tanked as they did without interference or consequences from the league, it became almost a necessity because it was the only way to keep up with the other rebuilding teams. But I believe the NBA is better off without tanking and I know I'd be better off if the Suns had found another way to rebuild.

If I had known you were a proponent of the "Hinkie way," I would not have pursued our discussion yesterday. It's much too divisive.

For some reason I didn't realize you had this philosophy. Four terrible losing seasons in a row is more than enough for me.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If I had known you were a proponent of the "Hinkie way," I would not have pursued our discussion yesterday. It's much too divisive.

For some reason I didn't realize you had this philosophy. Four terrible losing seasons in a row is more than enough for me.

It must be the way I write, you apparently still have no understanding of what I've been trying to say. I am NOT a proponent of the Hinkie way. Once the league opened the door for season long tanking it became, IMO, the most effective way to chase down a superstar and ultimately compete for a championship. But I would have still passed on going this way because for me, a championship isn't everything.

I want to watch and enjoy the games and I hate the fact I've had to live through 4 years of miserable basketball. It's worse for fans such as you and I because most fans don't watch every minute of every game. Once we started down this path though, I believe the worst thing we could do is to abandon it mid-stream.

 

[Western Font]

With the new lottery system your ability to rebuild is heavily dependent on luck.

I think it will succeed in stopping intentional tanking.

But it may backfire making bad teams bad for a really long time.

I'll be interested to see what happens later in the season. The perception right now is that teams have been dissuaded from obviously tanking for the worst record. But at some point a team is going to take a look around in the standings and decide that it wants one of the 14% shots at Zion. I know I would.

If the Suns play themselves out of any shot at Zion, then cool. But I wouldn't trade the pick without protection, and I honestly doubt the return with protection right now would be worth it. Even with the 6th or 7th worst record, I want to see the lottery before giving it up. We'll have seen the tourney by then, too, and how players like Morant have fared on the national stage.

 

[Mainstreet]

It must be the way I write, you apparently still have no understanding of what I've been trying to say. I am NOT a proponent of the Hinkie way. Once the league opened the door for season long tanking it became, IMO, the most effective way to chase down a superstar and ultimately compete for a championship. But I would have still passed on going this way because for me, a championship isn't everything.

I want to watch and enjoy the games and I hate the fact I've had to live through 4 years of miserable basketball. It's worse for fans such as you and I because most fans don't watch every minute of every game. Once we started down this path though, I believe the worst thing we could do is to abandon it mid-stream.

I understand what I read. In the paragraph I quoted you were quite clear. Other posts you have made have been equally clear. For some reason it didn't sink in yesterday.

Let's agree to disagree. There is no reason two reasonable people cannot disagree.

 

[hcsilla]

I'll be interested to see what happens later in the season. The perception right now is that teams have been dissuaded from obviously tanking for the worst record. But at some point a team is going to take a look around in the standings and decide that it wants one of the 14% shots at Zion. I know I would.

If the Suns play themselves out of any shot at Zion, then cool. But I wouldn't trade the pick without protection, and I honestly doubt the return with protection right now would be worth it. Even with the 6th or 7th worst record, I want to see the lottery before giving it up. We'll have seen the tourney by then, too, and how players like Morant have fared on the national stage.

Yes, and the Suns still do have room to improve, yet can keep the chance of 14% at Zion, since I do think that we are competing for the worst NBA team title with Cleveland and New York, Chicago and Atlanta are better teams, IMO.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'll be interested to see what happens later in the season. The perception right now is that teams have been dissuaded from obviously tanking for the worst record. But at some point a team is going to take a look around in the standings and decide that it wants one of the 14% shots at Zion. I know I would.

If the Suns play themselves out of any shot at Zion, then cool. But I wouldn't trade the pick without protection, and I honestly doubt the return with protection right now would be worth it. Even with the 6th or 7th worst record, I want to see the lottery before giving it up. We'll have seen the tourney by then, too, and how players like Morant have fared on the national stage.

The Suns have proven they are really bad this season. I'd rather keep the pick, or if the player the Suns want is not there, trade it on draft day for a position of need.

 

[Hoop Head]

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Attendance is down 11% this season, there should be a plan but who knows. I find it interesting it's dropped that much considering how happy everyone was with the Ayton pick. Surely it's the performance that has hurt attendance and that's on McD and Sarver. McD failed to build a complete team and Sarver let him try for too long, not giving his replacement enough time to salvage this season. Everyone knows we need a PG, even casual fans, if you see Suns posts on Twitter or Facebook you can look at the responses and probably 60% at the least are calling for a PG to be brought in for numerous reasons.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

It must be the way I write, you apparently still have no understanding of what I've been trying to say. I am NOT a proponent of the Hinkie way. Once the league opened the door for season long tanking it became, IMO, the most effective way to chase down a superstar and ultimately compete for a championship. But I would have still passed on going this way because for me, a championship isn't everything.

I want to watch and enjoy the games and I hate the fact I've had to live through 4 years of miserable basketball. It's worse for fans such as you and I because most fans don't watch every minute of every game. Once we started down this path though, I believe the worst thing we could do is to abandon it mid-stream.

Here’s my thoughts:

I’d prefer to go for a championship based on a great front office: great talent evaluation and great reputation becoming a destination for free agents. You know, the colangelo method. His only shortcoming with this method was failure to ever effectively land a center. But tough to fault him there when he tried everything and everyone else that didn’t luck I to a franchise center or be LA didn’t have one either.

But once it was clear we didn’t have a talented front office to identify talent or a great owner to attract free agents I needed to place hope on some other method. Enter the Hinkie plan. Yes it relies on a great deal of luck, but you have some control in tanking. I saw no other route to championship caliber players with Sarver as owner. And once you begin Hinkie-ing you’ve got to see it through otherwise all your previous horrible years are kinda for naught. Some might see that as throwing good money after bad, but has our front office improved? Did Sarver sell? No and no. So we have to rely upon development and luck. Granted the new lotto odds makes the Hinkie method much less palatable, but what else are we going to do?

And I don’t agree with Steve. I want a championship even if it means 5 more years of this yuck verses becoming a perennial 50 and fade team. Regular season is just that, an appetizer. I just can’t get full on appetizers . . . at least I don’t want to.

 

[Covert Rain]

Here’s my thoughts:

I’d prefer to go for a championship based on a great front office: great talent evaluation and great reputation becoming a destination for free agents. You know, the colangelo method. His only shortcoming with this method was failure to ever effectively land a center. But tough to fault him there when he tried everything and everyone else that didn’t luck I to a franchise center or be LA didn’t have one either.

But once it was clear we didn’t have a talented front office to identify talent or a great owner to attract free agents I needed to place hope on some other method. Enter the Hinkie plan. Yes it relies on a great deal of luck, but you have some control in tanking. I saw no other route to championship caliber players with Sarver as owner. And once you begin Hinkie-ing you’ve got to see it through otherwise all your previous horrible years are kinda for naught. Some might see that as throwing good money after bad, but has our front office improved? Did Sarver sell? No and no. So we have to rely upon development and luck. Granted the new lotto odds makes the Hinkie method much less palatable, but what else are we going to do?

And I don’t agree with Steve. I want a championship even if it means 5 more years of this yuck verses becoming a perennial 50 and fade team. Regular season is just that, an appetizer. I just can’t get full on appetizers . . . at least I don’t want to.

This x1000.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Here’s my thoughts:

I’d prefer to go for a championship based on a great front office: great talent evaluation and great reputation becoming a destination for free agents. You know, the colangelo method. His only shortcoming with this method was failure to ever effectively land a center. But tough to fault him there when he tried everything and everyone else that didn’t luck I to a franchise center or be LA didn’t have one either.

But once it was clear we didn’t have a talented front office to identify talent or a great owner to attract free agents I needed to place hope on some other method. Enter the Hinkie plan. Yes it relies on a great deal of luck, but you have some control in tanking. I saw no other route to championship caliber players with Sarver as owner. And once you begin Hinkie-ing you’ve got to see it through otherwise all your previous horrible years are kinda for naught. Some might see that as throwing good money after bad, but has our front office improved? Did Sarver sell? No and no. So we have to rely upon development and luck. Granted the new lotto odds makes the Hinkie method much less palatable, but what else are we going to do?

And I don’t agree with Steve. I want a championship even if it means 5 more years of this yuck verses becoming a perennial 50 and fade team. Regular season is just that, an appetizer. I just can’t get full on appetizers . . . at least I don’t want to.

I think most people here would agree with you. But like I said, I do want a championship, it just isn't the end all to me. I was quite content during the Colangelo years despite the fact we didn't win one. He put together teams that at least had a chance to compete for a title and were fun to watch during the season. But after living through the last 4 years, I'm with you. I'd live with more of this misery if it gave us a real chance to land the player(s) we need to truly compete. But I think if we get lucky and land Zion, we'll be done racking up the L's.

As for the Colangelo approach, I'm not sure it could work for us today. It was much easier to attract free agents, once that floodgate was opened, then it is today. The league has greatly incentivized star level players to remain at least through their second contract (7 to 9 years). The huge endorsement money has negated that effort somewhat but that's mostly to the benefit of the important markets (LA, New York, Miami etc.). The likelihood we'll attract a real star, even if we had stellar ownership and management, is still less than it was when we were signing the Danny Mannings of the league.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think most people here would agree with you. But like I said, I do want a championship, it just isn't the end all to me. I was quite content during the Colangelo years despite the fact we didn't win one. He put together teams that at least had a chance to compete for a title and were fun to watch during the season. But after living through the last 4 years, I'm with you. I'd live with more of this misery if it gave us a real chance to land the player(s) we need to truly compete. But I think if we get lucky and land Zion, we'll be done racking up the L's.

As for the Colangelo approach, I'm not sure it could work for us today. It was much easier to attract free agents, once that floodgate was opened, then it is today. The league has greatly incentivized star level players to remain at least through their second contract (7 to 9 years). The huge endorsement money has negated that effort somewhat but that's mostly to the benefit of the important markets (LA, New York, Miami etc.). The likelihood we'll attract a real star, even if we had stellar ownership and management, is still less than it was when we were signing Danny Mannings and such.

I don't think that is necessarily true. Even back in BC day we were considered a small market with limited endorsement opportunities. I think players came here because of the reputation of the team. I think players came here because they felt the franchise took care of even past players.

I think your underestimating a bit how much a teams reputation can impact a free agent looking for another team. Maybe not someone like Lebron who is looking for money money money but I think if we still had that reputation we could land someone big. That ship has sailed.

 

[1tinsoldier]

Attendance is down 11% this season, there should be a plan but who knows. I find it interesting it's dropped that much considering how happy everyone was with the Ayton pick. Surely it's the performance that has hurt attendance and that's on McD and Sarver...

McD and Sarver were responsible for delivering this season's team
(and, indeed, the fans and everyone here was excited about our prospects)
someone else was in charge of the performance
which is 9 and 32 at season's midpoint

 

[Hoop Head]

McD and Sarver were responsible for delivering this season's team
(and, indeed, the fans and everyone here was excited about our prospects)
someone else was in charge of the performance
which is 9 and 32 at season's midpoint

You can't give even the best chef terrible ingredients and expect a great meal.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You can't give even the best chef terrible ingredients and expect a great meal.

But a great chef can make a nice meal out of a seemingly mish mash of oddball ingredients.

 

[1tinsoldier]

You can't give even the best chef terrible ingredients and expect a great meal.

but we all expected something edible

and we liked a lot of the ingredients. i still do

some think it's under-cooked
but it's smells burnt to me

 

[AzStevenCal]

But a great chef can make a nice meal out of a seemingly mish mash of oddball ingredients.

Yeah but what can a great chef do with a fresh carrot, spoiled cabbage and un-ripe tomatoes? I think that's closer to what Koko started the season with. But a few moves have left us with what should be a better team, hopefully if Booker ever gets completely healthy we'll get to see that. And if not, well, that might tell us a little about Koko too. Like a lot of people here, I'm not thrilled with the match between this offense and Ayton but I'm hoping it's just not ready for primetime yet.

 

[Chaplin]

Yeah but what can a great chef do with a fresh carrot, spoiled cabbage and un-ripe tomatoes? I think that's closer to what Koko started the season with. But a few moves have left us with what should be a better team, hopefully if Booker ever gets completely healthy we'll get to see that. And if not, well, that might tell us a little about Koko too. Like a lot of people here, I'm not thrilled with the match between this offense and Ayton but I'm hoping it's just not ready for primetime yet.

And yet a bowl of soup may run $10, but a single ticket to a game averages almost 10 times that. Not a great one-to-one comparison, but I see the crux of it.