What Will It Take to Beat the Spurs Next Season?

azirish

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I've been trying to ignore basketball after the diaster of last weekend. In scanning some of the posts of the last few days, I'm surprised how little attention is being paid to what it will take to beat the Spurs.

Obviously the serieis might have gone differently if Nash was less of a bleeder and Amare stayed off the court. Still, the thrid quarter of game 6 should give us pause. As currently constituted, the Suns simply don't match up well against the Spurs.

The hardest part for the Suns is that they are so used to teams packing the paint to stop Amare. Against the Spurs they really struggle with a team that presses the three point line and contests all their shots. It seems like the Suns players lose their poise when they stop getting their usual open looks and began rushing their shots with diasterous results. Perhaps with more experience and some adjustments to their offensive scheme, they can improve but right now that's a huge problem.

Another problem is that the Suns (other than Amare) don't go hard enough to the basket. Duncan's blocks got so bad that the the Suns were losing concentration on layups. The Spurs physical defensive style clearly effects the Suns psychology.

One big problem has been the inability of the Suns to dribble in traffic. Some of the problem is that the Spurs never have reach in fouls called, but an equal problem is that the Suns seem to stand to much upright rather than crouching when dribbling. They don't use their bodies well enough to keep the ball away from tight defenders.

The fact that Bowen was allowed to manhandle Nash was discouraging, but it is something the Suns will have to be able to deal with if the team is going to win.

Overall, the Suns played the Spurs tough on defense, but it is clear the Suns have a long way to go if they are going to be good enough to beat the Spurs. Unfortunately, the Suns ran into three major problems and couldn't solve any of them:

--- Couldn't stop Duncan without fouling. It was hard because in game 6 KT was getting destroyed and doubling teamming did not work at all.

--- Struggled to keep Parker and Manu out of the paint. None of the Suns are quick enough to stop Parker and Marion could not stay up on him to keep him from shooting.

--- The Suns were routinely leaving shooters open and the Spurs didn't miss for a long period.

Obviously not having a classic low post defender and shot blocker is a real problem when playing the Spurs. Without one, the Suns are simply going to have to find a way to play better on offense.

Summer Work:

More than any other player, Boris Diaw is the one guy who could jump his status a lot if only because he didn't play well this season. He really needs to work on conditioning, strength training, dribbling in traffic, and long range shooting.

Marcus Banks needs to participate in the Las Vegas summer league and really work on his shooting and play making. He's a guy who MIGHT surprise if for no other reason than his very low expectations. Even small improvements in his offense might permit D'Antoni to use him to deal with a Tony Parker.

James Jones needs to become automatic from beyond the arc and develop more of an all round offensive game. He also needs to work on strength and rebounding, because he is a below average rebounder for his position.

Leandro Barbosa needs to keep working on his play making skills and decision making. In the Spurs series, it seemed like he was rattled and made a lot of mistakes. He should be better next season, but it is something he needs to work on.

Marion needs to work on improving his mid range game. He's never going to be a great three point shooter with that wacky stroke, but he should be better at mid range shots and even low post moves. He began to show some willingness to make entry passes, but he's not there yet.

Amare needs to develop some back to the basket moves (Boris looks better at back to the basket moves than Amare). In particular, he needs to develop a crossing move and a short hook. He's quick enough that he should be able to beat most defenders and force a double team.

I don't expect much change from Nash, Bell, and KT although Nash and Bell were not shooting well.

Off Season Personnel Priorities:

1. Another low post defender. The Suns were very close in Game 6 until KT got his fourth foul. As soon as he went out, the Spurs hit a slew of three pointers and took over the game. The Suns really do need someone who can at least make Duncan work hard without just fouling.

2. Another shooter/defender. The Suns offense works best when Marion is at PF, but putting Bell at SF and Barbosa at SG makes the team very small and vulnerable on defense. Jones is a nice player, but he does not play like a starter on a championship team.

3. A backup point guard who can play man defense. It is not clear there is anyone available who can do the job, but the Suns need to keep looking.
 

cly2tw

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Enhance the offensive approach to fully utilize and develop the talents in Amare, LB, and Diaw, get one more big like PJ Brown and at least one more perimeter defender like Buckner or Pietrus, we are ready to take down the Spurs in the playoffs next year. The best trade I think might be mutually beneficial is Marion for JRich and Pietrus.
 

Ollie

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Off Season Personnel Priorities:

1. Another low post defender. The Suns were very close in Game 6 until KT got his fourth foul. As soon as he went out, the Spurs hit a slew of three pointers and took over the game. The Suns really do need someone who can at least make Duncan work hard without just fouling.

2. Another shooter/defender. The Suns offense works best when Marion is at PF, but putting Bell at SF and Barbosa at SG makes the team very small and vulnerable on defense. Jones is a nice player, but he does not play like a starter on a championship team.

3. A backup point guard who can play man defense. It is not clear there is anyone available who can do the job, but the Suns need to keep looking.
1. Chris Mihm or Hilton Armstrong are more than decent defenders, and both have a mid-range jumper. I'm pretty sure Maceo Baston could do well here, too. And Melvin Ely is a free agent IIRC. Can't be worse than Pat Burke.

Obviously Luis Scola would be better than any of them, but D'Antoni'll never find a way to get him.

2. Jumaine Jones :) In all seriousness, guys like Ime Udoka, Mike Pietrus or Matt Carroll (even if he can't really play defense) are available. Or try to trade with the Bobcats for Gerald Wallace and/or Walter Herrmann.

3. One of the two greeks Papaloukas (would be a starter for at least half of the NBA teams) or Diamantidis.
 

Ollie

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I forgot the offensive MVP of the german league, bring back the mighty Casey Jacobsen!
 

Nasser22

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James Posey, to get a dirty player of our own and have a shooter to replace James Jones. He'd actually make his open 3's. Amare also needs to improve on defense though. His D was pathetic during the series. We can't rely on Kurt to do everything so Amare needs to at least make it harder for teams to get easy lay-ups.
 

arwillan

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i doubt it too..

how about barnes and pietrus for marion?

Barnes played well in the playoffs too, but hes a free agent to be. he likes the run and gun system, too. Pietrus didnt have a great post season compared to his teammates, but hes still a good player for the suns to have. they would probably do that trade, but TBH that doesnt help us much because neither of those guys are as good of a defender as marion.
 

MigratingOsprey

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amare needs to continue to develop and really work on playing post defense with his legs - duncan abused him one on one and it wasn't because of lack of effort on amares part - in fact there were times he was playing too intense and working himself out of position

post defense is so much different than the rest - step one is working to prevent position (kurt thomas did this very well), step two is once the ball is established to use your smarts and footwork to turn the player in the least favorable direction

the need someone who can run the offense when nash is out - the team defense is too much for barbosa at this point - they have other scorers, just need someone to direct them

they need better focus - this will come with experience of the younger guys - if you look at the spurs they are very polished and do not get rattled - everything they do is calculated - they have a plan and they execute

also, the suns need another player or two off the bench - barbosa gives good offensive lift, but they could use a solid, athletic big body defender - a guy like damien wilkins up in seattle would be the type of guy - can score at times, but will defend and provide solid minutes in a bench role

the suns need to be able to go 8 deep - they burst to big leads and with these leads they should be able to have a bench that can take a 20 point lead and give it back to the starters as a 12-15 point lead while providing plenty of rest

the suns hurt themselves thoughout the year with allowing teams to rally and making easy nights very difficult
 
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azirish

azirish

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amare needs to continue to develop and really work on playing post defense with his legs - duncan abused him one on one and it wasn't because of lack of effort on amares part - in fact there were times he was playing too intense and working himself out of position

post defense is so much different than the rest - step one is working to prevent position (kurt thomas did this very well), step two is once the ball is established to use your smarts and footwork to turn the player in the least favorable direction

It is hard to believe, but Amare does not have the leg strength of guys like KT and so he gets pushed off the block. Better technique would help, but he may not be physically capable of dealing with Duncan whose length and shooting skills make him such a hard cover.

the need someone who can run the offense when nash is out - the team defense is too much for barbosa at this point - they have other scorers, just need someone to direct them

This has been a recurring theme for three years. Unfortunately, the Suns cannot really have a pass first PG who can't shoot because they don't have enough other shooters when the defenders play off the PG.

Marion is not a shooter, Jones is an inconsistent three point shooter with limited mid range, and Diaw is still very inconsistent with his shooting. This leaves only Bell as a consistent three point shooter (during the season at least) and Barbosa. That's not enough to spread the court.

they need better focus - this will come with experience of the younger guys - if you look at the spurs they are very polished and do not get rattled - everything they do is calculated - they have a plan and they execute

The Spurs offensive "PLAN" is to get the ball to Duncan and have him pass out of the double team or isolate Parker on a slower defender. They then kick out to their shooters. This does not require great play making or a sophisticated offense - but everyone has to know how to respond to the defense.

For the Suns, the challenge is to learn to get the ball to their best matchups which is something that everyone should be working on and not just Nash. At times the Suns respond with crisp ball handling and good desciion making, but other times the ball sticks and the offense breaks down.

Finding a true backup for Nash may be harder than just getting the rest of the players to work together better as a team.

also, the suns need another player or two off the bench - barbosa gives good offensive lift, but they could use a solid, athletic big body defender - a guy like damien wilkins up in seattle would be the type of guy - can score at times, but will defend and provide solid minutes in a bench role

I agree, although I doubt Wilkins is that guy.

the suns need to be able to go 8 deep - they burst to big leads and with these leads they should be able to have a bench that can take a 20 point lead and give it back to the starters as a 12-15 point lead while providing plenty of rest. The suns hurt themselves thoughout the year with allowing teams to rally and making easy nights very difficult

I'm not sure the problem is depth as much as an over reliance on three point shooting. When protecting a lead, it is more important to keep scoring than to try to create ones own run.

The logic of three point shooting is that hitting one of three is the same as hitting half of ones two point shots. However, the psychology of runs negates the pure math.

Imagine 6 times down the court. Hitting 2 of 6 three point shots generates 6 points. Hitting 3 of 6 two point shots generates six points. But they aren't the same.

It is much easier to get an offensive rebound on a two point shot and defensive rebounds are under the basket rather than out in the flat. This means that by missing four long shots, the opponent has not only one more fast break opportunity. They get to start their breaks in a much better position to get a good open shot.

IMHO, it is much more deflating for a team trying to get a run going to have the other team score every time they come down floor than to give up some threes but get open looks at the other end. Unfortunately, the Suns players like to shoot threes, even though it is bad strategy when protecting a lead.

Perhaps a having a better backup PG would change things, but this happens even when Nash is in the lineup.
 

spurs81

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What would it take for the Suns to beat the Spurs?

1. Different offensive philosphy in the playoffs. I believe your offense was built around Nash getting into the paint and making the defense pay for collapsing. The Spurs were very disciplined in not going to help on Nash when they thought Bowen was beat. How many times did Nash get into the paint and have the ball a couple of feet from the hoop yet the Suns got no points off it? I was really surprised that D'Antoni didn't provide some more structure to the offense by pushing the pick and roll to the elbow and trying to create some slashing/back cut opportunities on the weak side.

1a. Stop worrying about style. I know you all think the Spurs are boring but they are the only team in the league willing to matchup against anybody's style and succeed. The 2005 championship run was so fun b/c they beat a very hot Nuggets team, played run and gun with the Suns, took out the Mavericks guard orienented schtick and then went straight up with the Pistons bruising defensive style. I think the Suns are so committed to their style they're incapable of playing anybody else's game and winning.

2. Better in game coaching. The Spurs ended the series in the 3rd quarter of game 6 when the Suns again decided to leave Jacques Vaughn open. A strategy that had worked to that point except that Pop made a subtle adjustment, parked Vaugn just outside the paint on the baseline behind the double team on Duncan leaving Vaughn with an easy to convert 3 on 2. This is where the barrage of 3 pointers from the corner started. After the second time it happened you would think that D'Antoni would have realized that the Spurs had this figured out and made his adjustment but he didn't.

3. I don't know that you're going to ever find a way to effectively guard Duncan 1 on 1. The most I've ever seen Duncan struggle in the playoffs was in 2005 against the Pistons when Detroit had R. Wallace on him and then had B. Wallace causing havoc as a help defender. Amare (if developed properly defensively) could very easily play the part of Ben Wallace, but as far as long 7 footers that can do most of the leg work in that scheme, well there is Garnett and R. Wallace, and maybe somebody like D. Howard in a few years.

I really see scheme and coaching as the problem with the Suns. You have the personel. You're team is very similar to the Mavs who once they finally got rid of Nelly and brought in Avery with his more conventail style they were able to knock the Spurs off last year with no really significant change in personel...
 

MigratingOsprey

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one thing that I noticed a lot is creating matchups - the suns would go on a 4-5 possession flurry where they could do a couple of screens and end up with duncan covering nash, isolated near the high wing

i honestly don't know if the spurs would do something to prevent this or if the suns just got tired of working the same sets - but it worked everytime they had it - i don't think i really saw it as end of the game scenarios though
 

SASpursfan

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1. Chris Mihm or Hilton Armstrong are more than decent defenders, and both have a mid-range jumper. I'm pretty sure Maceo Baston could do well here, too. And Melvin Ely is a free agent IIRC. Can't be worse than Pat Burke.

Obviously Luis Scola would be better than any of them, but D'Antoni'll never find a way to get him.
Spurs will not trade the rights to Scola to a Western Conference team, much less a perennial contender. IF the Spurs dont sign him in the next two years, they will most likely then trade his rights to an eastern conference team.
 
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azirish

azirish

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Spurs will not trade the rights to Scola to a Western Conference team, much less a perennial contender. IF the Spurs dont sign him in the next two years, they will most likely then trade his rights to an eastern conference team.

It will be extremely hard to get Scola to come to the NBA at all. Tau has no intention of letting him out of his contract and he's not going to get much money. Plus, he's too old to expect a big payday after reaching free agency.
 

SASpursfan

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It will be extremely hard to get Scola to come to the NBA at all. Tau has no intention of letting him out of his contract and he's not going to get much money. Plus, he's too old to expect a big payday after reaching free agency.

He has a contract until the end of next year. Under his current contract he would have to pay a buyout of nearly 2-3 million. Someone would probably offer him a MLE for two years but nearly all of that would go towards his buyout.

Its unfortunate that he is stuck under his current contract because I really think he could be a good player in the NBA. I remember how well he played against the NBA World Championship team in 2002. He had a sick block on J O'Neil.
 

hcsilla

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Off Season Personnel Priorities:

1. Another low post defender. The Suns were very close in Game 6 until KT got his fourth foul. As soon as he went out, the Spurs hit a slew of three pointers and took over the game. The Suns really do need someone who can at least make Duncan work hard without just fouling.

2. Another shooter/defender. The Suns offense works best when Marion is at PF, but putting Bell at SF and Barbosa at SG makes the team very small and vulnerable on defense. Jones is a nice player, but he does not play like a starter on a championship team.

3. A backup point guard who can play man defense. It is not clear there is anyone available who can do the job, but the Suns need to keep looking.

I think that the possibilities are quite limited.

1. KG

2. As mentioned earlier Posey may fit the bill. Lewis is not a defender but he is a strong scoring/shooting option.

3. Duhon. A solid defender and playmaker and may be available too.
 

SactownSunsFan

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Ugggggghhhh at the idea of taking on Pietrus. The guy is the poor man's version of the poor man's version of Marion.
 
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azirish

azirish

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I'm not a fan of getting Pietrus either.

For some reason there is a belief that the Suns need more guys who do best when running. Right now the Suns problem is not running, it's when they can't run.

Pietrus has been shooting much better this year than in past years (46.8% and 38.8% for three), but his stats were pretty bad before in the half court oriented game they played.
 

dodie53

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ok..

so just dump the ball to amare in the post.

btw,
did marion and diaw did they lob play this season?
 
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