Who Do You Like at #7?

[George O'Brien]

Let's assume the Suns do not get the #1 or #2 pick (hardly a reach). #3 might have pretty good trade value, #4 goes to the Bobcats. So the Suns are looking at drafting from #5 to #8 with #7 about the kind of luck the Suns will have. I've put together a list of guys who have been mentioned as lottery or mid first round picks who are likely to be available (a few will last until the second round):

CENTER/PF

Pavel Podkolzine
Andris Biedrins
M. Andriuskevicius
Kosta Perovic
Rafael Araujo

PF
Charlie Villanueva
Kris Humphries
Al Jefferson

SF
Luol Deng
Hakim Warrick
Josh Smith
Josh Childress
Luke Jackson

SG
JR Smith
Andre Iguodala
Ivan Chiriaev

PG
Shaun Livingston
Jameer Nelson
Sebastian Telfair
Ben Gordon
Devin Harris
Chris Duhon

 

[PhxGametime]

Andre Iguodala
Luol Deng
Andris Biedrins
Josh Smith
Ben Gordon
JR Smith
Devin Harris
Hakim Warrick
Kosta Perovic
Josh Childress
Kris Humphries
M. Andriuskevicius
Sebastian Telfair
Pavel Podkolzine
Ivan Chiriaev
Charlie Villanueva
Jameer Nelson
Luke Jackson
Rafael Araujo
Al Jefferson
Chris Duhon

This would be my list out of players listed. It sucks Suns traded 2nd round pick and won't get Cavs pick - I really like Herve Lamizana's game. He had 2 games in NIT with 8 blocks and average 3+ for year and makes 1 3PTer a game.

 

[PhxGametime]

Another player I'm high on - Kirk Synder G/F Nevada - declared for NBA Draft. Disappointed Cleveland might not make playoffs but like Slinslin stated, it's possible they could send pick over regardless.

 

[scotsman13]

if the suns go bpa at 7 i think that they will give j.r. smith a long hard look.

 

[F-Dog]

I've cut my list down to three:

1. Perovic
2. Andriuskevicius
3. Biedrins


Josh Smith sounds like a poor man's Kirilenko, which would be worth having, but he and Livingston are supposed to be top-5 picks, i.e. not available at #7.

Al Jefferson has interested me for a while now, but I'm not sure the Suns have a place for him. Can anybody tell me what the difference is between Jefferson and Zach Randolph in HS? Is Jefferson significantly more athletic? (I'm guessing the answer is no.)

 

[scotsman13]

I've cut my list down to three:

1. Perovic
2. Andriuskevicius
3. Biedrins


Josh Smith sounds like a poor man's Kirilenko, which would be worth having, but he and Livingston are supposed to be top-5 picks, i.e. not available at #7.

there are 2 smiths in this draft. josh who is a high schooler out of oak hill and j.r. smith who is a high schooler who has been one of the brite spots in the post season play of late. at 6'6" with a outstand outside shot and a 44" vetical leap he is outstand propect for the 2 guard spot. (i dont think that this is a weak spot in the draft but this guy might be too good to pass up).

 

[frdbtr]

After watching Okafor last night, I hope that Phoenix wins the lottery so that they can take him. He would put the Suns into the playoffs next year with that defense. Having said that, I figure that the Suns are a defensive player (optimally in the middle) away from making the playoffs and if they can't get him with the #7 pick then I say trade out of the draft and try to get him via free agency.

 

[scotsman13]

the question is what is okafor's true height. if he is 6'8" in socks then he wouldnt fit our needs at all. amare is better then him and amare isnt a center, amare is a power forward. now if okafor is closer to 6'10" then he should be able to spend time at center. then i would be in favor of drafting him.

 

[Joe Mama]

the question is what is okafor's true height. if he is 6'8" in socks then he wouldnt fit our needs at all. amare is better then him and amare isnt a center, amare is a power forward. now if okafor is closer to 6'10" then he should be able to spend time at center. then i would be in favor of drafting him.

Amare is better then him on which end of the court? Offensively Amare Stoudemire is much better than Okafor, but on defense Okafor looks much better. Forget about height. Everybody including myself has been fixed on Okafor's height for too long. I'm worried about his reach. He has fantastic for work, timing, etc. on defense. If he's available where the Phoenix Suns draft they probably need to take him. That is, of course, unless somebody else blows them away, or they get a trade offer that is just too good to pass.

Joe Mama

 

[slinslin]

At the moment I am close to saying JR Smith is my guy.

 

[Ryanwb]

Wacky trade:

Suns #1 pick
Marion

to Bobcats

their #1 pick (4th overall)
plus $3,000,000

select Josh Smith (SF)
and try our hand at getting Kobe

move Joe Johnson to SF with Josh Smith backing him up

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

that j.r. high school kid. who knows, maybe he's the next kobe?

 

[khilari]

I would take Al Jefferson or JR Smith at 7

 

[George O'Brien]

It really is too bad that none of the Euros big men on my list came to the US versus World game. One scout complained that it was the fault of the agents who don't want their mystery guy to look bad against real competition.

 

[Joe Mama]

I would rather have Randolph Morris than Jefferson.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I would rather have Randolph Morris than Jefferson.

Joe Mama

I agree. Jefferson really is only 6'9 (at most) while most lists say Morris is 6'11" and I don't think either are ready.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Just as an aside. Realgm.com has its lotto simulator running again. Run 10 times or so and it looks like 5 or 6 is the most likely slot for the Suns, with a 1 or 2 every once in a while. I ran it about 15 times and didn't get a 7 pick once.

 

[Chaplin]

Just as an aside. Realgm.com has its lotto simulator running again. Run 10 times or so and it looks like 5 or 6 is the most likely slot for the Suns, with a 1 or 2 every once in a while. I ran it about 15 times and didn't get a 7 pick once.

That is not correct. Everytime we come up as a "6", we are actually a "7". RealGM didn't bother to add in the Charlotte pick, which will always be #4.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Just as an aside. Realgm.com has its lotto simulator running again. Run 10 times or so and it looks like 5 or 6 is the most likely slot for the Suns, with a 1 or 2 every once in a while. I ran it about 15 times and didn't get a 7 pick once.

A while back Capologist posted a table showing the probabilities of landing each pick. Couldn't find it though

 

[George O'Brien]

That is not correct. Everytime we come up as a "6", we are actually a "7". RealGM didn't bother to add in the Charlotte pick, which will always be #4.

The difference between the probability of getting the top two and most likely placement seems to get a lot of people confused.

 

[elindholm]

A while back Capologist posted a table showing the probabilities of landing each pick. Couldn't find it though

I saved it and made a Word document out of it, but I don't know how to post it here so that it will look like a table, instead of a bunch of unformatted crap. If you want specific numbers I can look them up and post them, or you can PM me with an e-mail address and I'll send you the file.

The table works just fine for the upcoming draft, with two caveats:

1. Charlotte at #4 isn't included, so, as Chaplin said, for any pick later than #4, you have to add one to get the real pick.

2. The table assumes that there will be no ties in the W-L standings. But if there are, each tied team gets the same number of proverbial ping-pong balls -- the only time the tiebreaker (a coin flip) comes into play is if neither wins the lottery. So since there will surely be some tied teams, perhaps even among the very worst, the numbers are only approximate.

It's a great resource. Thanks, capologist, wherever you are. And I hope he'll do another one for the 2005 draft, when there will be 14 lottery teams.

 

[slinslin]

I was under the impression that the Bobcats have the #4 pick in 2004 and 2005.

 

[elindholm]

I was under the impression that the Bobcats have the #4 pick in 2004 and 2005.

Ah, could be, I know nothing about that. Then a new table wouldn't be needed until 2006.

 

[JCSunsfan]

That is not correct. Everytime we come up as a "6", we are actually a "7". RealGM didn't bother to add in the Charlotte pick, which will always be #4.

You're right. I just figured they would have included the Charlotte pick. I didn't look close enough.

FWIW. 20 tries. #1-0 times, #2-2 times, #3-2 times, #5-0 times, #6-5 times, #7-7 times, #8-4 times.

 

[Skkorpion]

Amare is better then him on which end of the court? Offensively Amare Stoudemire is much better than Okafor, but on defense Okafor looks much better. Forget about height. Everybody including myself has been fixed on Okafor's height for too long. I'm worried about his reach. He has fantastic for work, timing, etc. on defense. If he's available where the Phoenix Suns draft they probably need to take him. That is, of course, unless somebody else blows them away, or they get a trade offer that is just too good to pass.

Joe Mama

Amen, brother.