Will Anderson Jr is that rare prospect who checks all the boxes.

[Krangodnzr]

He's so bad timing the snap. He's never the first to get off. And he has a tonne of false steps on practically every snap.

All things absolutely correctable/teachable.

You know what can't be taught? His combo of speed and power.

 

[Krangodnzr]

If they have no time to work on these things how come plenty of other guys in the class are far superior in that respect? Very few have a tonne of moves, Ojulari probably has the most, but they pretty much all have more than long arm and bullrush. They all have far superior hands to Wilson and they all have far superior get offs. There's no excuse for that other than Wilson can't do it or he hasn't been trying.

The biggest thing for me is his get off. This is super basic stuff for an edge player. It's Edge play 101 from the first day of high school ball. If you are playing Edge the most basic way to win, to have any chance of winning at all, you have to get your get off right. It's a huge red flag for me that it's so bad. I was going to say "Probably the worst I've seen" but I'd be lying. It's definitely the worst. It's bad out of a 2 point stance and even worse out of 3 and 4.

So the question that keeps popping into my head is this. If he hasn't bothered to fix his get off (among other things) in several years of high school and college football how is he suddenly going to learn all these things at the NFL level? It's hard even for guys with good skill sets to make it in the NFL. How is Wilson going to cope with finding that his size and power are no longer a huge advantage and everything else is way off where it needs to be?

His higher win rate this year is due to poor quality competition. And it's always with power. If he comes up against a guy that can handle that such as 317lb Tyree Robinson for OU he has absolutely nothing else.

Maybe he will be a good NFL player but it's a huge gamble. There is nothing there outside his natural physical attributes that says "I'm a top 10 pick". He may have a high ceiling, but he also has a low floor.

For me, guys with a floor that low shouldn't go top 20. He's way behind nearly every edge prospect in this class in everything that he wasn't born with.

You admit yourself he has a lot to learn. With that in mind do you think he's a year 1 starter? I don't see anything more than situational player for at least a year and I'm not sure why you draft that guy top 10.

Everyone should watch this film and see how many bad get offs you can count. He might be the last to get off on every single snap. The first snap is absolute dog ****. Slow and false steps. I don't even like his sack on the 2nd snap. His get off his bad. He completely bites on the PA which would normally take him out of the play and he only wins due to coverage, raw power and bad blocking from, erm, Marquise Hayes.

But it's a good example of a sack that wouldn't happen in the NFL.

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So why did Wilson double Anderson's pass rush win rate this year?

Bro like others pointed out, the Big 12 has more good draftable tackles this year than the SEC. The Big 12 is a decent conference, it's not like we're talking about Conference USA.

You take Wilson because he has a massive ceiling. Even with all the issues you talked about, he crushed Anderson on a few important metrics (pass rush win rate and pressure percentage).

You draft players at the top of the draft who are physical marvels. Anderson is a good athlete, but can he hold against NFL tackles at 240ish? Watch Darnell Wright tape again and tell me that doesn't worry you. And listen to the guys who have legit scouting connections and you will hear them say that actual NFL scouts are drooling over Wilson.

 

[kerouac9]

This is how you end up with Josh Rosen.

I do agree with the overall premise that if you continue to punt on selecting a QB, you're best case scenario is a fringe playoff team. You'll never be very good with scrap heap QBs

I look at this as a very meh QB class. None of these guys are Lawrence caliber. I like Murray better than these guys. Next year's class might be exceptional with two elite talents in Maye and Caleb Williams.

Or you just assume that at some point Kyler Murray or Dak Prescott or some other B+ QB or better will become available and just try to have the capital available to acquire them.

I love the way the Titans and Colts did business the past few years. Their problem was that ownership got antsy about not having a marketable guy under center.

 

[DVontel]

You take Wilson because he has a massive ceiling

Why is his ceiling so massive? What about his slow ass get-off & no bend whatsoever?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

This is how you end up with Josh Rosen.

I do agree with the overall premise that if you continue to punt on selecting a QB, you're best case scenario is a fringe playoff team. You'll never be very good with scrap heap QBs

I look at this as a very meh QB class. None of these guys are Lawrence caliber. I like Murray better than these guys. Next year's class might be exceptional with two elite talents in Maye and Caleb Williams.

I think that Rosen comment is heaped with 20-20 hindsight. That QB class was considered a great class pre-draft.

And I agree with about this draft class. But it doesn’t change a thing about my hypothesis. Also, waiting until next season is no sure thing: a) there are only 2 top rated QBs, so easy to miss out on one; and b) there’s this tricky thing that often occurs when the hot QB ends up being not so hot the next season (see teddy bridgewater and lamar Jackson).

 

[BritCard]

The key tell about Anderson is the Tennessee game. RT Darnell Wright stonewalled Anderson, primarily by anchoring effectively and sliding with good footwork to stay balanced. Wright is big for college, but not the NFL. Anderson had no answer, lacking the technique to out-maneuver Wright. This is not to say Anderson can’t develop it, rather his success will depend on growth, not just athleticism. He was the best Edge in college last season, but he is not a sure thing. I like his chances, but I’d have to take a great offer. Ossenfort doesn’t strike me as lacking self confidence. He’ll move for a good offer and apparently with Gannon’s blessing.

I think people are massively over thinking 1 game. Show me an NFL edge who didn't have similar games in college.

I recall back when Bosa was coming out him getting handled by Alaric Jackson against Iowa. To the point they switched him to the other side against freshman Tristan Wirfs where he also got handled.

 

[BritCard]

All things absolutely correctable/teachable.

You know what can't be taught? His combo of speed and power.

All things you shouldn't have to teach a 1st round pick and that speak volumes for his attitude and work ethic.

 

[Stout]

All things absolutely correctable/teachable.

You know what can't be taught? His combo of speed and power.

...except a slow first step, yeah?

 

[BritCard]

So why did Wilson double Anderson's pass rush win rate this year?

Bro like others pointed out, the Big 12 has more good draftable tackles this year than the SEC. The Big 12 is a decent conference, it's not like we're talking about Conference USA.

You take Wilson because he has a massive ceiling. Even with all the issues you talked about, he crushed Anderson on a few important metrics (pass rush win rate and pressure percentage).

You draft players at the top of the draft who are physical marvels. Anderson is a good athlete, but can he hold against NFL tackles at 240ish? Watch Darnell Wright tape again and tell me that doesn't worry you. And listen to the guys who have legit scouting connections and you will hear them say that actual NFL scouts are drooling over Wilson.

He's not 240ish. He's 253.

That's roughly the same weight Chandler Jones played standup at. And if he had to play in a 4-3 he would get up to around 265lbs. Anderson can easily do that.

He absolutely did not crush Anderson. Anderson had more pressures and sacks. 59 pressures, 36 hurries, 9 hits, 10 sacks on 652 snaps vs Wilson who had 50 pressures, 32 hurries, 10 hits and 7 sacks on 538 snaps. On a per snap basis Wilson was slightly better last year. But after the 2021 season that Anderson had he had a tonne of double teams that I don't see watching Wilson.

 

[Harry]

I think people are massively over thinking 1 game. Show me an NFL edge who didn't have similar games in college.

I recall back when Bosa was coming out him getting handled by Alaric Jackson against Iowa. To the point they switched him to the other side against freshman Tristan Wirfs where he also got handled.

To me this game stands out, not because it’s an outlier, but because Wright’s play & skillset are similar to that of many NFL tackles. Wright’s play was not that special technique wise. He’s just a very big guy who is able to slide and maintsin balance. I’m not saying Anderson couldn’t learn to handle that strategy. I’m saying Anderson, at this point, does not possess the techniques required to beat it.

 

[Harry]

...except a slow first step, yeah?

Oddly, sometimes that’s a concentration issue. It’s not always fully correctable but can be improved.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't think get off can be taught personally. Quick twitch stuff is rarely learned.

 

[Krangodnzr]

...except a slow first step, yeah?

He takes off slow and then dominates the rep.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I don't think get off can be taught personally. Quick twitch stuff is rarely learned.

He isn't slow switch lol, he just doesn't time the snap.

 

[Krangodnzr]

To me this game stands out, not because it’s an outlier, but because Wright’s play & skillset are similar to that of many NFL tackles. Wright’s play was not that special technique wise. He’s just a very big guy who is able to slide and maintsin balance. I’m not saying Anderson couldn’t learn to handle that strategy. I’m saying Anderson, at this point, does not possess the techniques required to beat it.

Agreed. Just like @BritCard was talking about Wilson dominating used cars salesmen, when Anderson faced a late 1st round tackle, he struggled mightily. It wasn't just losing a battle, he was dominated and his team lost the game.

Anderson's real strength is his ability to quickly diagnose plays. He's actually quite good to special at this ability. I would bet on him because of this trait. But he is also undersized, and of the Cardinals are moving to an even front, Wilson really has to be considered. Wilson will not be good as a stand up rusher, but he has extremely rare length and he understands how to get his hands inside and dominate the rep. His technique and get off have to improve, but he can fix those things. As his technique improves, he's going to be a big problem for tackles because he already has a good understanding of power rush and speed to power.

 

[Stout]

He takes off slow and then dominates the rep.

You might as well just say he takes off slow then never has a chance to get to the QB. This is the NFL, not college. Sloppiness, slow twitch, not being able to get off the ball or read the snap, will completely cancel all those tasty--yet possibly irrelevant--measurables. Those measurables alone mean nothing; he has to do it on the field.

 

[Stout]

Agreed. Just like @BritCard was talking about Wilson dominating used cars salesmen, when Anderson faced a late 1st round tackle, he struggled mightily. It wasn't just losing a battle, he was dominated and his team lost the game.

Anderson's real strength is his ability to quickly diagnose plays. He's actually quite good to special at this ability. I would bet on him because of this trait. But he is also undersized, and of the Cardinals are moving to an even front, Wilson really has to be considered. Wilson will not be good as a stand up rusher, but he has extremely rare length and he understands how to get his hands inside and dominate the rep. His technique and get off have to improve, but he can fix those things. As his technique improves, he's going to be a big problem for tackles because he already has a good understanding of power rush and speed to power.

So forgive all your prospect's sins but crucify the one you don't want based on one game? Your bias is showing.

 

[Krangodnzr]

You might as well just say he takes off slow then never has a chance to get to the QB. This is the NFL, not college. Sloppiness, slow twitch, not being able to get off the ball or read the snap, will completely cancel all those tasty--yet possibly irrelevant--measurables. Those measurables alone mean nothing; he has to do it on the field.

Nonsense my man. He is a monster who will use his length and strength to control tackles in the NFL.

I love Anderson too, but the hate Wilson is getting on this board is utter ridiculousness.

You see how I found (and @Harry found) a game of Anderson's that was concerning and you could really use that to argument that you shouldn't draft him at all? Well the rest of the board is nitpicking Wilson for some technique he needs to clean up and it's missing the forest for the trees.

There is an old NFL scout axiom that you don't get fixated on what a player doesn't do well, and instead fixate on what they are really good at. You miss out on great prospects by focusing on their flaws. Wilson is just a massive wrecking ball of a man with exceptional length, strength, long arms, and speed. His arms are massive thick. He is literally a prototype even front end. Anderson is not. Anderson's best fit in a 3-4 backer.

 

[Krangodnzr]

So forgive all your prospect's sins but crucify the one you don't want based on one game? Your bias is showing.

And your reading comprehension is failing here.

I've said I would take Anderson, but the anti-Wilson views are crazy.

 

[Stout]

Nonsense my man. He is a monster who will use his length and strength to control tackles in the NFL.

I love Anderson too, but the hate Wilson is getting on this board is utter ridiculousness.

You see how I found (and @Harry found) a game of Anderson's that was concerning and you could really use that to argument that you shouldn't draft him at all? Well the rest of the board is nitpicking Wilson for some technique he needs to clean up and it's missing the forest for the trees.

There is an old NFL scout axiom that you don't get fixated on what a player doesn't do well, and instead fixate on what they are really good at. You miss out on great prospects by focusing on their flaws. Wilson is just a massive wrecking ball of a man with exceptional length, strength, long arms, and speed. His arms are massive thick. He is literally a prototype even front end. Anderson is not. Anderson's best fit in a 3-4 backer.

There have been thousands of them that have just failed. None of that means a thing if they aren't actually good at the job, too. I have no idea how you're simply dismissing how absurdly bad the kid is getting off the ball. You want to talk utter ridiculousness? You just replied as if being 1/2 second to a second slow off the ball is no biggie. That's the difference between a pressure and a nothing burger, or between a pressure and a sack. It doesn't really matter if he's good--which is definitely TBD--if he can't get off the ball with good twitch.

And the hate you perceive from me isn't hate. It's the age old draft riser with good measurables vs player that's actually done it as a known commodity argument. Nobody--well, few people--are saying he shouldn't go near the top. Nobody's saying he's a bad prospect. He just has serious question marks and, though he may have a high ceiling, definitely has a low floor compared to Anderson.

 

[Stout]

And your reading comprehension is failing here.

I've said I would take Anderson, but the anti-Wilson views are crazy.

As I've said, it's not hate. When you shove a narrative down someone's throats, as if we have to acknowledge your Wilson takes as fact, there's going to be push back. Pundits like him. Draftniks like him. He's undoubtedly one of the top prospects in this draft. He also has a lot to do to reach the level where any of his measurables will make any real difference. He's not a walk on the field and dominate type of player. Very, very raw and mostly potential. Will it pan out? Time will tell.

 

[Krangodnzr]

There have been thousands of them that have just failed. None of that means a thing if they aren't actually good at the job, too. I have no idea how you're simply dismissing how absurdly bad the kid is getting off the ball. You want to talk utter ridiculousness? You just replied as if being 1/2 second to a second slow off the ball is no biggie. That's the difference between a pressure and a nothing burger, or between a pressure and a sack. It doesn't really matter if he's good--which is definitely TBD--if he can't get off the ball with good twitch.

And the hate you perceive from me isn't hate. It's the age old draft riser with good measurables vs player that's actually done it as a known commodity argument. Nobody--well, few people--are saying he shouldn't go near the top. Nobody's saying he's a bad prospect. He just has serious question marks and, though he may have a high ceiling, definitely has a low floor compared to Anderson.

And I don't see how I continually point out that he was among the highest in pressure percentage and pass rush win rate and you continue to ignore that. There isn't just one way to win as a pass rusher.

LOL at draft riser. I feel like I'm talking to a wall here. He was a 1st Team All American. He has been pretty much around the top ten for months.

 

[Krangodnzr]

As I've said, it's not hate. When you shove a narrative down someone's throats, as if we have to acknowledge your Wilson takes as fact, there's going to be push back. Pundits like him. Draftniks like him. He's undoubtedly one of the top prospects in this draft. He also has a lot to do to reach the level where any of his measurables will make any real difference. He's not a walk on the field and dominate type of player. Very, very raw and mostly potential. Will it pan out? Time will tell.

The narrative that is being parroted ad nauseam around here is Anderson or bust.

 

[Stout]

And I don't see how I continually point out that he was among the highest in pressure percentage and pass rush win rate and you continue to ignore that. There isn't just one way to win as a pass rusher.

LOL at draft riser. I feel like I'm talking to a wall here. He was a 1st Team All American. He has been pretty much around the top ten for months.

For months, yes. Rising after the college season was done and dusted. That is exactly a draft riser. He was an all-American? Cool. What did he do in high school? That means nothing here. Yes, he had pressure percentage and win rate while being terrible off the ball against college competition. I don't like what that will translate to in the NFL. If I knew for certain that could be fixed, it would be a different ball game. As it stands, I acknowledge he's a top-10 pick and state that I prefer Anderson for obvious reasons that have been stated before.

 

[Stout]

The narrative that is being parroted ad nauseam around here is Anderson or bust.

If we get to 3 and Anderson isn't the pick, sure, I'll be upset. Or in a trade back to 4. If we take a different edge over Anderson, I'll be getting Keim vibes for sure. Like Ossi is trying to be the smartest guy in the "room." That's my opinion. Could be wrong, could be right.