Ayton's Ceiling

[Chris_Sanders]

From another thread. A poster said Ayton's ceiling is Amare.

I understand that comparison as an agile scoring big man but I think it is far higher due to his size and rebounding ability.

So what is Ayton's ceiling? What is his floor?

Its a hard comparison because his scoring is elite. Inside to mid range he is dominant. He is still useful at the 3 but not elite there He is also a very good rebounder

So I would say his floor is a poor mans Demarcus Cousins. I will be shocked if he isn't at least 18 and 10 in the NBA. Can he defend adequately or make his teammates better is the real question.

His ceiling? What if he was horribly miscast at the 4 and that is why he was a poor defender. What if he can be taught how to play in space? What if he is a better passer out of the post then Miller let him show?

Well I get very lofty then. It's not a stretch to put him in the top 5 in PER in the NBA.

So I will put him his ceiling at better Joel Embid.

His floor is decent big man. His ceiling is all pro.

You have to take him at 1

 

[GatorAZ]

Karl Anthony-Towns with a worse motor/instincts on D.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Better than Embiid. JMO. He has the length, skills, and body.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Karl Anthony-Towns with a worse motor/instincts on D.

I almost said that as a current. Great comparison.

I just wonder if he is better than what Sean Miller gave him. When he flashes greatness its freaking great.

When he is frozen out of the offense for whatever reason then you ask if it is Miller or him.

Last year I saw Markannen flounder in the tourney. Play terrible D. Be frozen out of the offense.

I was wrong about Lauri because I ignored the skills. I don't want to make that mistake with Ayton

 

[JCSunsfan]

I almost said that as a current. Great comparison.

I just wonder if he is better than what Sean Miller gave him. When he flashes greatness its freaking great.

When he is frozen out of the offense for whatever reason then you ask if it is Miller or him.

Last year I saw Markannen flounder in the tourney. Play terrible D. Be frozen out of the offense.

I was wrong about Lauri because I ignored the skills. I don't want to make that mistake with Ayton

Hmmm. Why are they being frozen out? Is it coaching or are there particular players at fault?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Well I personally believe that Miller does less with more so I am hoping it's coaching. I could be wrong though

 

[JCSunsfan]

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=23477113

To me, this video pretty much sums up what I believe to be his ceiling.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=23477113

To me, this video pretty much sums up what I believe to be his ceiling.

I agree with all that offensively. It's defense that concerns me. Again might be overblown though

 

[GatorAZ]

I almost said that as a current. Great comparison.

I just wonder if he is better than what Sean Miller gave him. When he flashes greatness its freaking great.

When he is frozen out of the offense for whatever reason then you ask if it is Miller or him.

Last year I saw Markannen flounder in the tourney. Play terrible D. Be frozen out of the offense.

I was wrong about Lauri because I ignored the skills. I don't want to make that mistake with Ayton

It wasn’t a great situation for him. The personnel along with Miller being somewhat “checked out” really exposed his flaws. Nobody on the perimeter could guard but that’s not an excuse for standing flat flooted in the paint when guys attracted the rim. He’d probably have a higher block rate had Ristic not been his front court mate but he doesn’t have the mindset to be a great rim protector. I remember reading an article from HS where he admitted he was scared to get dunked on.

If he’s putting up Embiid numbers than you still take him without the elite defense. Among Centers playing 30+ minutes Embiid was only behind Gobert in DRPM. Igor being in Utah with Gobert is intriguing if they get him.

 

[JCSunsfan]

It wasn’t a great situation for him. The personnel along with Miller being somewhat “checked out” really exposed his flaws. Nobody on the perimeter could guard but that’s not an excuse for standing flat flooted in the paint when guys attracted the rim. He’d probably have a higher block rate had Ristic not been his front court mate but he doesn’t have the mindset to be a great rim protector. I remember reading an article from HS where he admitted he was scared to get dunked on.

If he’s putting up Embiid numbers than you still take him without the elite defense. Among Centers playing 30+ minutes Embiid was only behind Gobert in DRPM. Igor being in Utah with Gobert is intriguing if they get him.

So, he plays poor defense because he doesn't want to end up on a poster? Boy has our hype of the game messed these kids up. Don't play hard because you might fall down and then everyone will laugh at you. Don't try to block a shot because someone might take a picture with you getting scored on. Yikes.

Get him a shrink and he will be ok.

 

[Phrazbit]

Karl Anthony-Towns with a worse motor/instincts on D.

Eh... Towns is pretty trash on defense. I think Ayton has a higher ceiling. Ayton was stuck defending on the perimeter because Arizona was stupidly committed to playing him and Ristic together... and it's not that Ristic was the better interior defender, but Ristic was obviously the one who had no hope of defending anyone who was mobile.

I think Ayton's ceiling is... through the roof. I dunno if he gets there, but he is one of the most athletically gifted and offensively skilled freshman big men... ever. And I don't think that is hyperbole. I also think he will be a really good on the glass. Defensively... that is the mystery. I have no clue if he will be good or bad on D because Arizona didn't put him in a situation to succeed on that end, but I know he has the tools to be really freaking good.

So... I'd say his ceiling is... the best big man in the NBA.

I honestly think his floor is something like... a guy who puts up 18-11 but gives a lot of it back on the other end.

 

[rocker]

Ayton will lose the advantage he had in NCAA once he steps in NBA. That's his height and athletic figure. Are his other abilities on such a level to be successful against the strongest centers in the league? Yes, but only after 200 - 300 games. And I'm talking here about his offensive gameplay. But the most worrying thing is his defense, I'm not shure if its Ristic's fault that Ayton is not using his wingspan under the basket, neither did coach give him instructions to be lost in space when playing defense. For an all-star you need body, brains and instict for the game. Not necessarily in that order, but you need all of them. When looking Ayton playing defense I see his lack of instinct. I don't know if you can teach that.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think an underrated portion of his game is his ability to see, and understand, the defense and spacing. He’s a very good passer for a big. Bill Walton (a good passing big man himself) raves about it in an early season game and so I keyed on that throughout the season. It’s accurate. And it’s important in today’s game.

 

[Russ Smith]

I think an underrated portion of his game is his ability to see, and understand, the defense and spacing. He’s a very good passer for a big. Bill Walton (a good passing big man himself) raves about it in an early season game and so I keyed on that throughout the season. It’s accurate. And it’s important in today’s game.

Yep that was the single biggest surprise to me with him last year. Most freshmen bigs take awhile to figure out doubles at the college level, teams don't always double the same way and it confuses them. Ayton would just stand up take a look and make the pass. the other thing is he didn't take the "bailout" pass to the guy 36 feet from the rim that couldn't do anything, he made the pass to the guy cutting to the basket or who had the wide open 3.

I think he has a chance to be an exceptional offensive player, a bigger LaMarcus Aldridge type, but yes the question is defense. He showed flashes but for his size and length he should block more shots than he does. And again, all year I tried to figure out why a guy who can touch the top of the backboard kept losing jumpballs to guys like Thomas Welsh, either an effort thing, just didn't value it, or a timing thing.

 

[Folster]

Anybody else starting to get nervous for the draft lottery tomorrow?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Anybody else starting to get nervous for the draft lottery tomorrow?

I have been nervous for some time. I really feel this is a draft of tiers and the first tier is 2 guys.

The next tier is good but not franchise elevating

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Anybody else starting to get nervous for the draft lottery tomorrow?

Starting? I'm a Suns fan. Nervous is where I live!

 

[Krangodnzr]

Ayton will lose the advantage he had in NCAA once he steps in NBA. That's his height and athletic figure. Are his other abilities on such a level to be successful against the strongest centers in the league? Yes, but only after 200 - 300 games. And I'm talking here about his offensive gameplay. But the most worrying thing is his defense, I'm not shure if its Ristic's fault that Ayton is not using his wingspan under the basket, neither did coach give him instructions to be lost in space when playing defense. For an all-star you need body, brains and instict for the game. Not necessarily in that order, but you need all of them. When looking Ayton playing defense I see his lack of instinct. I don't know if you can teach that.

I don't think their are many big men more or equally athletically gifted as Ayton. I think you can count on one hand how many guys have skills approaching his talents.

 

[SirStefan32]

Well, I am keeping the expectations low in order to avoid disappointment should the Suns fall to #3 or #4. It would be so nice to finally get the number one pick.

 

[Hoop Head]

I have been nervous for some time. I really feel this is a draft of tiers and the first tier is 2 guys.

The next tier is good but not franchise elevating

I think the top tier could contain 3 players, Ayton and Doncic are the givens and who I assume you have in that tier but I think Trae Young could be franchise altering also. The more I read and watch of him the more I'd like to see the Suns pick him. He should be available at #4 if the Suns slip also, if not they need to trade up to get him at #3. I don't see any teams passing on Ayton or Doncic as the #1 and #2 pick this year.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Eh... Towns is pretty trash on defense. I think Ayton has a higher ceiling. Ayton was stuck defending on the perimeter because Arizona was stupidly committed to playing him and Ristic together... and it's not that Ristic was the better interior defender, but Ristic was obviously the one who had no hope of defending anyone who was mobile.

I think Ayton's ceiling is... through the roof. I dunno if he gets there, but he is one of the most athletically gifted and offensively skilled freshman big men... ever. And I don't think that is hyperbole. I also think he will be a really good on the glass. Defensively... that is the mystery. I have no clue if he will be good or bad on D because Arizona didn't put him in a situation to succeed on that end, but I know he has the tools to be really freaking good.

So... I'd say his ceiling is... the best big man in the NBA.

I honestly think his floor is something like... a guy who puts up 18-11 but gives a lot of it back on the other end.

Actually, I won't argue with this. If anyone is being picked apart like Tatum was last year, its Ayton. Tatum had a very mature game in many aspects, but people criticized his athleticism, which now seems silly, and his defense, which now seems ok. Ayton's ceiling is much, much higher.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Well, I am keeping the expectations low in order to avoid disappointment should the Suns fall to #3 or #4. It would be so nice to finally get the number one pick.

Last season was the first time in history that the Celtics had the number one pick.

 

[Raindog]

Last season was the first time in history that the Celtics had the number one pick.

Actually, they had the first pick in the 1980 draft, as well. But coincidentally enough, ended up trading it to Golden State for the third pick and Robert Parish. Then Boston used the third pick to select Kevin McHale. GS took Joe Barry Carroll with the first pick.

Needless to say, brilliant move on Boston's part.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I think the top tier could contain 3 players, Ayton and Doncic are the givens and who I assume you have in that tier but I think Trae Young could be franchise altering also. The more I read and watch of him the more I'd like to see the Suns pick him. He should be available at #4 if the Suns slip also, if not they need to trade up to get him at #3. I don't see any teams passing on Ayton or Doncic as the #1 and #2 pick this year.

I can agree with that. I am really getting blah on Bagley and with the Suns looking at Capella it doesn't seem like Bamba is their guy (though I like him)

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I’m nervous but ready to be crushed.