Cards save $14 million with Palmer retirement

[kerouac9]

One last item i forgot: The team needs go give DJ a new contact. that wont be cheap.

This shouldn't be a concern for at least two more years. He averaged 2.1 YPC this year. Andre Ellington had a couple of promising seasons, too.

 

[gimpy]

Boooooo!!!!^^

 

[Mitch]

One last item i forgot: The team needs go give DJ a new contact. that wont be cheap.[/QUOT

Let the year play out...can use the f-tag on him if necessary. No more pre-mature contracts.

 

[Arz101]

I am with K9 on this.Wait on DJ until his rookie contract ends and then use franchise tag if necessary. Team will have a better picture by then.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Wouldn't it be cheaper and easier on the cap to do an extension vs franchise tag? With the tag, all that $ goes against the immediate cap, but an extension can spread the $ across the life of the contract.



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

No rush and given the working span of a running back, Tag may be the cheaper route long-term.

 

[football karma]

on David Johnson

all the reasons listed are obvious to his agent as well. You likely get a discount today vs waiting until he hits unrestricted free agency and you start down the franchise tag route.

Further -- if you beleive that its going to take the Cards a couple offseasons to get back into the playoff / contender mix: i want the DJ cap hit earlier than later -- i want to save cap space for "the window" when adding one more key veteran is necessary

 

[Solar7]

this team does not have as many holes as it appears.... we need a QB obviously,...and a legit #1 WR...hell, make it a #1 and a #2... but Nelson, Golden, and Brown(Jauron)..are not complete deadbeats, they have value at their position... the trick is to not have to ask to much of them for extended periods of time.

Only Nelson is under contract there. We have Fitz (if he returns), Nelson, and Williams. I don't think they're going to break the bank if we were to bring back Golden or Brown, but are they a fit for the new coach's offense? Better than some of the other WRs out there that could be had for the same price? That I don't know.

 

[kerouac9]

on David Johnson

all the reasons listed are obvious to his agent as well. You likely get a discount today vs waiting until he hits unrestricted free agency and you start down the franchise tag route.

Further -- if you beleive that its going to take the Cards a couple offseasons to get back into the playoff / contender mix: i want the DJ cap hit earlier than later -- i want to save cap space for "the window" when adding one more key veteran is necessary

You can always create cap space for "one more key veteran." If David Johnson is available for a discount right now, is it a greater discount than the $709k he's scheduled to make in 2018? How much more would you be willing to pay out to ensure he's under contract to, say, age 31 (he'll turn 27 next year)?

The franchise tag number in 2019 is likely to be around $15M. I don't see a need to guarantee, say, $10M right now for a guy who was averaging 2.1 YPC the last time we saw him.

 

[unseenaz]

You can always create cap space for "one more key veteran." If David Johnson is available for a discount right now, is it a greater discount than the $709k he's scheduled to make in 2018? How much more would you be willing to pay out to ensure he's under contract to, say, age 31 (he'll turn 27 next year)?

The franchise tag number in 2019 is likely to be around $15M. I don't see a need to guarantee, say, $10M right now for a guy who was averaging 2.1 YPC the last time we saw him.

are you souring on DJ? if you are, you must be really panicking about our O moving forward. he's the only bright spot outside of fitz

 

[kerouac9]

are you souring on DJ? if you are, you must be really panicking about our O moving forward. he's the only bright spot outside of fitz

I'm not, but spending money on running back is a fool's errand. Last year we were 7-8-1 with David Johnson; this year we were 8-8 without him. Yes, he probably makes life easier for a rookie QB because he can catch passes out of the backfield, but I'm not going to guarantee $10M to him when I can have him for one more year at $800k.

Would you rather have David Johnson for three years and $5M per year, or Alvin Kamara for 4 years and $3M total? That's the reality of the runningback situation in the NFL today.

 

[DVontel]

Only Nelson is under contract there. We have Fitz (if he returns), Nelson, and Williams. I don't think they're going to break the bank if we were to bring back Golden or Brown, but are they a fit for the new coach's offense? Better than some of the other WRs out there that could be had for the same price? That I don't know.

Did you call change my quote? Wth?

 

[Solar7]

Did you call change my quote? Wth?

I think I accidentally deleted the wrong name from there, it was supposed to be @oaken1. Total mistake, sorry! I was working and must have lost track of what I was quoting.

 

[DVontel]

I think I accidentally deleted the wrong name from there, it was supposed to be @oaken1. Total mistake, sorry! I was working and must have lost track of what I was quoting.

All good my man.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

but NOT cutting him makes the next two seasons $14mil each guaranteed.... cut him now, deal with modest dead money and be done with it...

or try and get a pick for him...he seems to think he has a good market

At the current salary, Tyrann Mathieu would be paid the 5th highest salary for defensive backs (that means cornerbacks and safeties) in the NFL.

Is Tyrann Mathieu the 5th best defensive back in the NFL? Is he even the 50th?


On a board where Patrick Peterson and Chandler Jones' salaries are questioned on almost a weekly basis, Mathieu is safe from that type of scrutiny ?

That is a hard argument for me to entertain.

 

[Solar7]

All good my man.

Thanks - I just realized what happened, I had a draft in here from one of your posts last night and when I hit quote, just defaulted to thinking you were the poster. I use another Xenforo board and it doesn't just quote the individual, but the whole post, so I normally have to go back and delete the first parts of the chain. I was on autopilot.

 

[unseenaz]

Just never change my quote again, ya little prick!

sheesh

 

[football karma]

I don't see a need to guarantee, say, $10M right now for a guy who was averaging 2.1 YPC the last time we saw him.

thats obtuse. Unless you want to make the case that 11 carries in one half of one game are indicative rather than the first 32 games of his career.

you could go $800k for 2018+ franchise in 2019+franchise in 2020 for ~$28mm total

of course, Lev Bell and Todd Gurley likely get paid somewhere in there so the franchise price goes up

or, you commit to probably something less -- maybe $22mm guaranteed and have him for 5 years / $60mm total.

 

[kerouac9]

thats obtuse. Unless you want to make the case that 11 carries in one half of one game are indicative rather than the first 32 games of his career.

you could go $800k for 2018+ franchise in 2019+franchise in 2020 for ~$28mm total

of course, Lev Bell and Todd Gurley likely get paid somewhere in there so the franchise price goes up

or, you commit to probably something less -- maybe $22mm guaranteed and have him for 5 years / $60mm total.

Yuck. Nope. He's already 26. I don't want him for 5 years; I'm not sure I want him for 3 years. Why can't he be the next Tyrann Mathieu?

The Franchise number right now is just over $12M. I'll buy David Johnson's 27 year old season for that. Devonta Freeman just signed a second contract and the total guaranteed money was $18.3M. That was after three healthy seasons, two Pro Bowls, and a run to the Super Bowl.

Only 9 running backs average more than $6M per year on their deal, and you want to double that? The highest per-year average for RBs with more than one year on their deal is Freeman, and that's $8.25M. Do you really think that David Johnson deserves 30% more?

 

[football karma]

Yuck. Nope. He's already 26. I don't want him for 5 years; I'm not sure I want him for 3 years. Why can't he be the next Tyrann Mathieu?

The Franchise number right now is just over $12M. I'll buy David Johnson's 27 year old season for that. Devonta Freeman just signed a second contract and the total guaranteed money was $18.3M. That was after three healthy seasons, two Pro Bowls, and a run to the Super Bowl.

Only 9 running backs average more than $6M per year on their deal, and you want to double that? The highest per-year average for RBs with more than one year on their deal is Freeman, and that's $8.25M. Do you really think that David Johnson deserves 30% more?

The TM comp lacks merit: he isnt coming off two acl reconstructions. A wrist injury to a RB isnt close to two knee injuries for a cb/s.


As for the $ comps, then signing a five year deal is even better than going the franchise route-- fine, make it five years/$48m. And yes, i think DJ is a better player who would command more than Freeman.

As for age, its more about touches. DJ is a low mileage 26, and is all of three months older than.... Freeman.

Do you really think DJ has only two productive years left?

 

[kerouac9]

The TM comp lacks merit: he isnt coming off two acl reconstructions. A wrist injury to a RB isnt close to two knee injuries for a cb/s.


As for the $ comps, then signing a five year deal is even better than going the franchise route-- fine, make it five years/$48m. And yes, i think DJ is a better player who would command more than Freeman.

As for age, its more about touches. DJ is a low mileage 26, and is all of three months older than.... Freeman.

Do you really think DJ has only two productive years left?

I don’t know, but I don’t think he’ll be 10 times more productive than Alvin Kamara, so I don’t understand why I’d pay him 10 times as much.

Running backs basically grow on trees. More and more guys who do what DJ does will come out every year, because that’s what they’ve been doing since middle school. Makes no sense to pay a premium for a replaceable skill.

 

[oaken1]

I don’t know, but I don’t think he’ll be 10 times more productive than Alvin Kamara, so I don’t understand why I’d pay him 10 times as much.

Running backs basically grow on trees. More and more guys who do what DJ does will come out every year, because that’s what they’ve been doing since middle school. Makes no sense to pay a premium for a replaceable skill.

yeah... it suxx, because he is a great kid. But conventional wisdom says make him play out his rookie contract, tag him a year or two, then let him walk. No sense in extending him early and taking a cap hit we could use elsewhere right now. So far Fitz is the only "Faith" contract that has actually paid off for the redbirds

 

[Jetstream Green]

yeah... it suxx, because he is a great kid. But conventional wisdom says make him play out his rookie contract, tag him a year or two, then let him walk. No sense in extending him early and taking a cap hit we could use elsewhere right now. So far Fitz is the only "Faith" contract that has actually paid off for the redbirds

People where talking about using Peterson to trade up for a QB but Johnson is far more feasible to replace. I would not want to trade either but you can always get a running back which will suffice

 

[oaken1]

People where talking about using Peterson to trade up for a QB but Johnson is far more feasible to replace. I would not want to trade either but you can always get a running back which will suffice

that was me that brought up trading Peterson...simpley because we could get a rookie QB and an all pro RB helps that young QB be successful far more than an all pro corner does. Corners also have more value in a trade,.. not to mention it would free up around $14mil a year on the cap... not to mention, I was suggesting trading him to cleveland... why would they bother trading for DJ when they could just keep their picks and draft Saquon Barkley?
for a trade like that to work it would have to specifically be PP21

 

[Chopper0080]

The franchise tag for two years will probably be the best business decision the Cardinals can make on David Johnson. Giving a 5 year deal with a bunch of guaranteed money to a 27 year old RB is not a smart business option.

Look at it this way...

Right now, David Johnson has a 3 year deal totaling 27.2 mil. It breaks down to 800k for 2018, 12 mil (ish) for a team option in 2019, and 14.4 (ish) mil for a team option in 2020. Those team options are for the franchise tag. That would pay him until he is 29 years old. He will turn 30 at the end of the 2021 season. If you wanted to cut him prior to the league year, you would suffer zero dead money against your cap.

If you gave him a 5 year deal today, it would likely average $10 per year which would fit his rank in terms of NFL RBs. Even in a team friendly deal, you are creating dead money unless you want to pay him a top RB salary at the ages of 30 and 31. You are also losing your ability to improve the roster in 2018 because you are inflating his salary from 800k to approx 7 mil, roughly 6.2 mil. You would gain 3.5 mil in cap space in 2019, and then 4.4 in cap space in 2020, but again we still have him on the books for 11.5 in 2021, and 13 in 2022 when he turns 31 at the end of the season.

It just doesn't really make sense from a team aspect unless David Johnson agrees to an under-market value deal. The problem is that if he did, Johnson would want more guaranteed money to do so, and that would lead to dead space for the Cardinals later.

 

[football karma]

You are also losing your ability to improve the roster in 2018 because you are inflating his salary from 800k to approx 7 mil, roughly 6.2 mil. You would gain 3.5 mil in cap space in 2019, and then 4.4 in cap space in 2020, but again we still have him on the books for 11.5 in 2021, and 13 in 2022 when he turns 31 at the end of the season.

some baseline assumptions that inform my POV:

1. I think NFL years/carries is the better metric in determining when a RBs production starts to go south. I think the NIU redshirt freshman year + this years lost season extends his productivity into his 8th season, or age 31 (he turns 32 in December of the last year of an extended contract). This is the key one -- I beleive he has at least 4 and likely 5 productive seasons ahead of him.

2. 2018 likely doesnt matter as its a rebuilding year. There are more holes than money, and, pending FAs dont line up with the holes. 2018 is the year when a bunch of young players are brought in and you find the 3-5 that can play.

Cap space in 2019, and 2020/2021 really is where i want cap space. Its also a year where i would prefer not having perhaps the teams best offensive player not showing up until the tuesday before the season opener.

3. I think with Bell and Gurley getting new deals, the RB franchise number likely goes up from where you have it. Its $12 from this last year.