15% chance of making playoffs?

[gusmahler]

Last week, Football Outsiders had us with a 54% chance of making the playoffs. I guess the loss must have affected us more than I thought it would. They only give us a 15% chance of making the playoffs now.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

We were #3 on the WC list (behind NYG and WAS). Now we are 7th (behind NYG, MIN, NO, WAS, PHI, and DET, tied with CHI).

 

[CtCardinals78]

That's about 14.99% higher than what I think our chances are.

 

[SECTION 11]

That word should be abolished from this website.

 

[mjb21aztd]

So your telling me their is a shot lol

 

[D-Dogg]

That's about 14.99% higher than what I think our chances are.

Man, you are generous.

 

[Jasper]

Damn we were so close.
We were so close to turning the corner yet our rear wheels locked up and we suddenly made a 180 degree u-turn.
Come on team let's keep it together.
But I don't see how we can make the playoffs now

Matt's done for season, Warner left with one working arm, Francsico done for the season, Adrian done for the season, Eric Green done for the season. Let's not forget Berry and Chike were already gone.

Yeah folk's it looks bad.

It's like you are driving to the playoffs and boom you get a flat, so you replace it with your spare. After the change you drive again,heck some say your spare is a better tire than the one you started with, anyways you make your way. Then boom your spare gets a flat. What do you do? You call around and get an extra spare from your neighbor in Frisco. Unfortunately this spare sucks so you have use that quick flat fix they sell in a can. It works but the tire is inconsistent and tends to wobble and release air after every few bumps. But you've made it. You've seen the exit sign and offramp. Just when you are about to get there murphy's law, the curse, bad karma pandora's box all hell breaks loose.

 

[Lloydian]

Give me a break. The Detroit Lions are ahead of us? Sure. Right after they beat the Giants, Cowboys and Packers.

These numbers mean nothing.

 

[lobo]

I'll take the unders after the WIlson announcement.

 

[gusmahler]

Give me a break. The Detroit Lions are ahead of us? Sure. Right after they beat the Giants, Cowboys and Packers.

They've already played (and lost to) the Giants.

The link explains how they come up with the numbers. It's not arbitrary. They plug in all the remaining games in the schedule and assign each team a probability of winning each game, based on each team's DVOA rating. They run the simulation 10,000 times and figure out how many times each team makes the playoffs. According to the calculations, the Lions happen to have a
10.5% of being a wild card team. The Cards only have a 7.2% chance.

Unfortunately for the Lions, they have a 0% of winning their division, while we have an 8.2% chance of winning ours, giving us a 15.4% overall chance of making the playoffs.

(That methodology explains why the system gives both the Packers and Cowboys a 100% chance of making the playoffs despite the fact that neither team has technically qualified for the playoffs yet.)

 

[Lloydian]

Let me try my methodology:

Dallas, Green Bay and Tampa Bay are likely division winners. Cardinals have a chance at the division, but is unlikely (winning in Seattle will be a challenge).

Wild Card Team predictions:

New York: Currently 7-4, Home: Washington, Kansas City, Away: Chicago, Philadelphia, Buffalo. New York Giants finish 11-5.

Detroit: Currently 6-5, Home: Dallas, Kansas City, Away: Minnesota, San Diego, Green Bay. Detroit Lions finish 7-9.

Washington: Currently 5-6, Home: Buffalo, Chicago, Dallas, Away: New York Giants, Minnesota. Washington Redskins finish 8-8.

Philadelphia: Currently 5-6, Home: Seattle, New York Giants, Buffalo, Away: Dallas, New Orleans. Philadelphia Eagles finish 9-7.

Minnesota: Currently 5-6, Home: Detroit, Chicago, Washington, Away: Buffalo, Denver. Minnesota Vikings finish 8-8.

Chicago: Currently 5-6, Home: New York Giants, New Orleans, Away: Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay. Chicago Bears finish 6-10.

New Orleans: Currently 5-6, Home: Tampa Bay, Arizona, Philadelphia, Away: Atlanta, Chicago. New Orleans Saints finish 6-10.

Arizona: Currently 5-6, Home: Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Away: Seattle, New Orleans. Arizona Cardinals finish 9-7.

Granted, that analysis leaves Arizona on the outside (Philadelphia gets it on mutual opponents tie breaker), but I like Arizona's chances better than most of the teams on that list.

Besides, I'm holding out for Arizona running the table and winning the division.

 

[abomb]

Let me try my methodology:
Arizona: Currently 5-6, Home: Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Away: Seattle, New Orleans. Arizona Cardinals finish 9-7.

Um, what four games prey tel do you have the Cards winning?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

New Orleans will do better than a 6-10 finish.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Um, what four games prey tel do you have the Cards winning?

All 3 home games and NO is what I would guess.

 

[AZCB34]

I think the Cards have almost no chance of making the playoffs...and that is depressing given how perfect this year set up for them. NFCW is weak, AFCN ooponents are shaky and the Cards beat the biggest obstacle in that division. Their NFCS opponents are pretty bad across the board (although TB won).

Short of a major miracle, the Cards will be home again in January.

Makes me want to puke actually.

The Cards could overcome almost any injury but one and that is the one that will shelve Wilson for the rest of the year. The defense has given up an awful lot of points since he went down. I liken losing Wilson to what happens to the Bears defense when Mike Brown goes down. The team seems to play alot worse.

I was hopeful preseason for 8-8...as the season progressed I started thinking this team may actually win the division. But losing Wilson and the slow burn implosion occurring right now will offer up 6-10 or 7-9 at best.

 

[D-Dogg]

Um, what four games prey tel do you have the Cards winning?

San Fran, Cleveland/NO (one of those), Atlanta and St. Louis.


OOOOOOPS!!!

 

[Jetstream Green]

We have a shot, to shoot ourselves in the foot some more. Wait, we already shot all the toes off.

 

[TheHopToad]

Looking at the remaining schedule for all of these teams, my money is on the Vikings taking that second wild card spot. They've been playing well recently and Adrian Peterson will likely be back this week. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they ran the table to finish 10-6.

 

[Lloydian]

Um, what four games prey tel do you have the Cards winning?

For the record, I meant all but Seattle. I know you darksiders don't see this happening, so feel free to ignore it and use your bill for playoff tickets as kindling (I know my dad wants to do that), but as for me, I'm planning on attending four postseason games this year, all involving my beloved Cardinals.

In fact, after the Cards beat Cleveland and Seattle, I plan to make flight arrangements for the second round game in Dallas or Green Bay (since I expect Tampa Bay to be the 3rd seed, I'll plan on the Cards visiting the winner of tonight's game).

And yes, I realize that I've just identified Seattle as being both a loss and a win, but the 9-7 was the pessimist in me while the eternal optimist in me insists that the Cardinals still win the division by beating the Seahawks.

 

[gusmahler]

We're up to 22.4% now!

Fourth best chance for WC behind NYG, MIN, and NO.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

 

[Rivercard]

We're up to 22.4% now!

Fourth best chance for WC behind NYG, MIN, and NO.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

That sounds about right for this week. We'll be an underdog at NO.

 

[Lloydian]

More confusion from them: We expect New Orleans to finish with a 7-9 record, and we expect Arizona to finish with an 8-8 record, and we think New Orleans has a slightly better chance of making the playoffs.

 

[Rivercard]

More confusion from them: We expect New Orleans to finish with a 7-9 record, and we expect Arizona to finish with an 8-8 record, and we think New Orleans has a slightly better chance of making the playoffs.

I guess they think NO will beat us. And if they are wrong about NO finishing 7-9, then that means they will have the tiebreaker over AZ.

 

[gusmahler]

More confusion from them: We expect New Orleans to finish with a 7-9 record, and we expect Arizona to finish with an 8-8 record, and we think New Orleans has a slightly better chance of making the playoffs.

Those are two separate stats. All the mean wins stat means is that, out of 10,000 runs, the average # of wins is 7 for NO and 8 for AZ. But, because of who the teams play, the times NO does win 8, they are more likely to make the playoffs.

Same reasoning that WAS and CHI have the same projected wins, but WAS has a higher chance of making the playoffs (the table was made before last night's game).

As an aside, ESPN projects us making the playoffs at 9-7. He has the Vikes finishing at 8-8, despite their easy schedule:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=chadiha_jeffri&id=3142820

 

[cardsfanmd]

The Vikes will take it IMO. They have a very good D, a monstrous O-line, AD and a QB who as of late seems to have figured out how to play within himself and properly manage games. I saw a stat the other day that in his last like 5 games, his QB rating has been over 100. The first half of the season I had him as about the 50th best QB in the league. Shows what a running game and good line can do for you. The boy Sydney Rice is an animal too.