2011 Draft: Robert Quinn, Freakshow

[Chopper0080]

Heh despite our debates on this topic, I think we have exactly the same perspective on this topic.

I'd love to trade down and grab some more draft capital and take Justin Houston. IMO Justin Houston is that nice balance between upside and risk. He has a great first step, has had some success bullrushing to the passer, and has dropped back into coverage.

One point that I'd like to make addressing a comment you made earlier about the Steelers drafting OLBs later. That was mainly because up until recently, very few teams ran a 3-4 and the Steelers were able to sit back and draft those tweener DEs and let them develop behind their usual Pro Bowl performers. Now that about half the league or more will be running a 3-4, the Steelers won't have that luxury.

If trends remain the same, you'll see guys like Quinn going high in the first round every year. That's because most of the Joey Porter, Jason Gildon-types that the Steelers have drafted over the years weren't even in the same class as the Robert Quinns as prospects, even as 3-4 OLBs.

We're in a tough spot because of the defense we play; We absolutely have to get younger and more talented at OLB, but we don't have the starters right now to really excel at this type of defense. That's why I'm not too concerned with Quinn's transition if we take him, IMO any of the college coversion prospects are going to have some transition, but Quinn has the most upside of the pool.

There are two sides to this argument, and we will probably disagree on this as well. A common misnomer is that with the proliferation of the 3-4 defense, edge rushes will not be found later in the draft. I disagree with this because teams like Pittsburgh are still drafting edge rushers later in the draft (rounds 2-4), they are just getting smarter at when they draft them.

Last year Pittsburgh enters the draft knowing that James Harrison has been in the league 7 years and LaMarr Woodley would be a free agent after the season. So they went into the draft looking for young depth at OLB and the Steelers came away with 2 potential players in Thaddeus Gibson and Jason Worilds. Both very raw athletes, but were drafted where if they don't pan out, it won't set the franchise back.

The Patriots, Jets, and Ravens also have shown that they believe that 3-4 OLB's are developed and have a high bust factor. Of these top defensive teams, only the Steelers and the Packers have a double digit sack player
on their roster. This shows you the value of having a rush 3-4 backer, but when you also factor in how many of these types are drafted every year, the rate of failure is astounding. Here is how rare it is to hit on a 3-4 edge rusher; Suggs was drafted in 03, Ware 05, Merriman 05(was solid for a short time), Matthews and Orakpo in 09. That is it. In 7 years only 5 teams have hit on a 3-4 Rush OLB in the first round. Not a good ratio.

That is why I wouldn't be upset if we loaded up on player like KJ Wright, Sam Acho, Brooks Reed, and Jeremy Beal in rounds 2-4 as they seem more acceptable risks than Robert Quin, Aldon Smith, and Akeem Ayers in round 1. Von Miller is a player that I haven't decided on yet, and Justin Houston might be the ideal player, but how far can we afford to trade down, and what can we get for compensation for the move?

 

[Hypothesis]

There are two sides to this argument, and we will probably disagree on this as well. A common misnomer is that with the proliferation of the 3-4 defense, edge rushes will not be found later in the draft. I disagree with this because teams like Pittsburgh are still drafting edge rushers later in the draft (rounds 2-4), they are just getting smarter at when they draft them.

Last year Pittsburgh enters the draft knowing that James Harrison has been in the league 7 years and LaMarr Woodley would be a free agent after the season. So they went into the draft looking for young depth at OLB and the Steelers came away with 2 potential players in Thaddeus Gibson and Jason Worilds. Both very raw athletes, but were drafted where if they don't pan out, it won't set the franchise back.

The Patriots, Jets, and Ravens also have shown that they believe that 3-4 OLB's are developed and have a high bust factor. Of these top defensive teams, only the Steelers and the Packers have a double digit sack player
on their roster. This shows you the value of having a rush 3-4 backer, but when you also factor in how many of these types are drafted every year, the rate of failure is astounding. Here is how rare it is to hit on a 3-4 edge rusher; Suggs was drafted in 03, Ware 05, Merriman 05(was solid for a short time), Matthews and Orakpo in 09. That is it. In 7 years only 5 teams have hit on a 3-4 Rush OLB in the first round. Not a good ratio.

That is why I wouldn't be upset if we loaded up on player like KJ Wright, Sam Acho, Brooks Reed, and Jeremy Beal in rounds 2-4 as they seem more acceptable risks than Robert Quin, Aldon Smith, and Akeem Ayers in round 1. Von Miller is a player that I haven't decided on yet, and Justin Houston might be the ideal player, but how far can we afford to trade down, and what can we get for compensation for the move?

Keith Butler stated regarding Jason Worilds that they had him rated as a first round talent and was disheartened when they chose Pouncey over him, but that he was delighted when Worilds was available in the second round. Their offensive line was considered to be a greater need though.

Using Pittsburgh as an example as a team that only picks their LBs later isn't all that accurate in my opinion. They never pick high and the top LB prospects are gone by the time they are on the clock. They settle for the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects. Still works out good for them though, with the exception of Gibson who was cut and picked up by San Fran. Now if they were to pick in the top 10, I can't say they would pick one of the top OLB prospects, but it is quite possible. Especially if Pittsburgh was severely lacking the talent at OLB that we are.

As for your list, I'd add Tamba Hali to it. In 2 years since making the switch to OLB he's tallied 23 sacks. 2010 was obviously his best year but he's done nothing but improve week to week.

 

[Chopper0080]

Keith Butler stated regarding Jason Worilds that they had him rated as a first round talent and was disheartened when they chose Pouncey over him, but that he was delighted when Worilds was available in the second round. Their offensive line was considered to be a greater need though.

Using Pittsburgh as an example as a team that only picks their LBs later isn't all that accurate in my opinion. They never pick high and the top LB prospects are gone by the time they are on the clock. They settle for the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects. Still works out good for them though, with the exception of Gibson who was cut and picked up by San Fran. Now if they were to pick in the top 10, I can't say they would pick one of the top OLB prospects, but it is quite possible. Especially if Pittsburgh was severely lacking the talent at OLB that we are.

As for your list, I'd add Tamba Hali to it. In 2 years since making the switch to OLB he's tallied 23 sacks. 2010 was obviously his best year but he's done nothing but improve week to week.

This is the point. They spend a 4th rounder on a conversion guy who doesn't work out, oh well, they can move on. They drop a top 25 pick and it becomes a serious bust pick. To the point of Worilds, they weren't willing to reach for a player they unsure of in the first round. So they waited, and committed to take him if he was their with their next pick. Even Woodley was a guy that they had rated very highly, but were more comfortable with Timmons in round 1 than LaMarr.

The reason that I omitted him was that he was originally drafted as a 4-3 end and played the position for a couple years before being switched to a 3-4 OLB. I almost omitted Orakpo for he same reason, but he only spent 1 year in the 4-3.

 

[Krangodnzr]

This is the point. They spend a 4th rounder on a conversion guy who doesn't work out, oh well, they can move on. They drop a top 25 pick and it becomes a serious bust pick. To the point of Worilds, they weren't willing to reach for a player they unsure of in the first round. So they waited, and committed to take him if he was their with their next pick. Even Woodley was a guy that they had rated very highly, but were more comfortable with Timmons in round 1 than LaMarr.

The reason that I omitted him was that he was originally drafted as a 4-3 end and played the position for a couple years before being switched to a 3-4 OLB. I almost omitted Orakpo for he same reason, but he only spent 1 year in the 4-3.

I would argue that the Steelers felt they had a greater need at ILB than OLB, and that's why they drafted Timmons before Woodley. Larry Foote was viewed as a weak link for years. Timmons was also a much higher rated player. BPAPN (Best Player Available at a Position of Need).

But using a high pick (2nd round) on Worilds shows that even the Steelers are starting to use higher picks on OLB edge rushers. And like you talked about above, the also used a 2nd rounder on Woodley. Go back over a decade before they drafted Woodley and I doubt you see any other OLBs taken as high as the two mentioned above.

Also, since Woodley was drafted, quite a few teams have made the switch to 3-4. I'd wager it's been about 5-7 teams since they picked Woodley. If Woodley were to come out now, I'd guarantee he would be selected in the 1st round. I just think the trend will change based on the number of teams your going to see drafting 3-4 oriented players. We've already seen 3-4 linemen going higher recently, and the trend will now extend to OLBs too. I can't think of another time that there was such a buzz about potential 3-4 OLBs...

 

[SuperSpck]

First post is updated with combine numbers.
Inch shorter than reported (by school), and has slimmed down 5 lbs.