2014 Suns Free Agency

[PDXChris]

Okay, clearly there is something wrong with my argument. I don't see it but it's not the first time I've missed something.

Steve

I get what you are saying. You are saying that a healthy mediocre player cannot be compared to a unhealthy good to great player when determining salary and that being healthy is not justification to over pay.


Either or you are saying you want a tuna sandwich.

 

[elindholm]

Okay, clearly there is something wrong with my argument. I don't see it but it's not the first time I've missed something.

It's a team sport, so attributing wins and losses to the presence or absence of individual players is a pretty questionable business. Bledsoe did not win 29 games by himself, nor did Monroe lose 53 games by himself.

How many fewer games would the Suns have won if they didn't have Bledsoe at all? How bad would the Pistons have been without Monroe? These are complicated questions to answer.

 

[KloD]

Reading I can do, apparently I fall short in the reasoning department.

Steve

We may have the same issue as I understood (or at least believe I do) what your point it. If Monroe healthy and playing 82 games only leads his team to 29 victories and Bledsoe injured half the year and leads his team to the same number of victories, you have to assume had Bledsoe remained healthy that his wins would be much higher as he had the same result with much less attempts.

Of course IMO you would have to judge Bledsoe on the results when he is healthy because there's a chance he won't repeat missing half a season every year. Monroe showed what he brought to the table. He had the maximum attempts to do so. He produced the same amount of victories as the guy who had half the amount of attempts.

I probably just mucked it all up, but it makes sense in my head.

 

[KloD]

It's a team sport, so attributing wins and losses to the presence or absence of individual players is a pretty questionable business. Bledsoe did not win 29 games by himself, nor did Monroe lose 53 games by himself.

How many fewer games would the Suns have won if they didn't have Bledsoe at all? How bad would the Pistons have been without Monroe? These are complicated questions to answer.

This.

 

[Covert Rain]

It's a team sport, so attributing wins and losses to the presence or absence of individual players is a pretty questionable business. Bledsoe did not win 29 games by himself, nor did Monroe lose 53 games by himself.

How many fewer games would the Suns have won if they didn't have Bledsoe at all? How bad would the Pistons have been without Monroe? These are complicated questions to answer.

Agreed. For example if you have guys playing more minutes or playing out of position during the stretch...wins or losses might be impacted by his absence indirectly but not directly related to missing his talents. I don't think there is anyway to measure how much of that is a factor.

 

[Mainstreet]

I thought I would hear something about the Suns by now. I only know Tucker is in Phoenix. Nothing about Bledsoe or anything else. Is the whole house of NBA free agency cards waiting for Lebron, then Anthony and Bosh to make moves?

This is so weird that one player can tie up much of the leagues free agency moves.

 

[95pro]

Agreed. For example if you have guys playing more minutes or playing out of position during the stretch...wins or losses might be impacted by his absence indirectly but not directly related to missing his talents. I don't think there is anyway to measure how much of that is a factor.

+/- ???

 

[Covert Rain]

+/- ???

I think it's an indicator of an individual players directs results on the court in different combinations. However, that is not going to tell you for example intangibles, chemistry or completely capture the value a player is or isn't bringing to his team. I am not a big fan of measuring someone based solely on one type of stat. There are flaws in all of them. I like looking at several factors and even then people here argue it doesn't tell the entire story. I completely agree. Check this out...it's an interesting article on plus or minus stats.

http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/4/9/5591108/jae-crowder-problem-espn-real-plus-minus-rpm

 

[Mainstreet]

Now on 620 AM, other teams (like Memphis and Houston) are hot after PJ Tucker. I hope the Suns do not overpay.

 

[Superbone]

Now on 620 AM, other teams (like Memphis and Houston) are hot after PJ Tucker. I hope the Suns do not overpay.

There's a reason for that. We'll have to pay whatever market value is to keep him and I hope we do.

 

[Mainstreet]

There's a reason for that. We'll have to pay whatever market value is to keep him and I hope we do.

So what do you believe market value is?

 

[Mainstreet]

So would you pay him a contract similar to Frye? Say 4 years, 32M but with a team option for the 4th year.

 

[Superbone]

So would you pay him a contract similar to Frye? Say 4 years, 32M but with a team option for the 4th year.

No! I'm guessing market value is in the 4M-4.5M per range (maybe even 5). Memphis and Houston may set the price with an offer. We'll see.

 

[hcsilla]

I would give a 2 year / 8 mil. contract for Tucker.

I don't really see the market for Tucker, for example after signing Bosh and/or keeping Parsons there is no way that the Rockets can sign him, and in latter case they don't need him either.

 

[Mainstreet]

No! I'm guessing market value is in the 4M-4.5M per range (maybe even 5). Memphis and Houston may set the price with an offer. We'll see.

We will see. I think 5M a year is the max I'd pay as well and then I'd gulp. If the Rockets lose Chandler Parsons I can see a problem for the Suns right there. The problem is, there is a lot of money out there to spend.

 

[Mainstreet]

I would give a 2 year / 8 mil. contract for Tucker.

I don't really see the market for Tucker, for example after signing Bosh and/or keeping Parsons there is no way that the Rockets can sign him, and in latter case they don't need him either.

I'd say Tucker gets a better offer than this. I'm just trying to figure out where posters draw the line.

 

[Superbone]

We will see. I think 5M a year is the max I'd pay as well and then I'd gulp. If the Rockets lose Chandler Parsons I can see a problem for the Suns right there. The problem is, there is a lot of money out there to spend.

Yeah, I guess if somebody goes crazy with an offer, it will test our will to match. I'm hoping it'll stay reasonable since it's getting late in the day (FA period).

 

[JS22]

I would give a 2 year / 8 mil. contract for Tucker.

I don't really see the market for Tucker, for example after signing Bosh and/or keeping Parsons there is no way that the Rockets can sign him, and in latter case they don't need him either.

Tucker is most likely going to get more than that.

If I had to guess ... 3 years, 16-18 million. Somewhere in that range.

 

[KloD]

Now on 620 AM, other teams (like Memphis and Houston) are hot after PJ Tucker. I hope the Suns do not overpay.

Houston is apparently hot for every free agent. Not worried about any Houston rumor myself. Memphis has no money. Maybe they have the mid left?

 

[Mainstreet]

Houston is apparently hot for every free agent. Not worried about any Houston rumor myself. Memphis has no money. Maybe they have the mid left?

The trouble is, we do not know all the players. It has been so quiet.

 

[KloD]

The trouble is, we do not know all the players. It has been so quiet.

Yeah, but I've spent zero time worried about losing Tucker or Bledsoe. It's up to the Suns whether that happens and I don't think they will let it. I have to believe they are working on something. Anything. All this silence... I guess I'm just hoping they aren't sitting on their hands waiting for James to officially announce they aren't getting him. I doubt they are and I've got to believe they have moved on, but jeez I would like to at least hear a rumor (even a false one) sooner than later.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yeah, but I've spent zero time worried about losing Tucker or Bledsoe. It's up to the Suns whether that happens and I don't think they will let it. I have to believe they are working on something. Anything. All this silence... I guess I'm just hoping they aren't sitting on their hands waiting for James to officially announce they aren't getting him. I doubt they are and I've got to believe they have moved on, but jeez I would like to at least hear a rumor (even a false one) sooner than later.

I have to believe the Suns have some irons in the fire as well. It's just the waiting for it to happen that drives me crazy.

 

[BC867]

I get what you are saying. You are saying that a healthy mediocre player cannot be compared to a unhealthy good to great player when determining salary and that being healthy is not justification to over pay.

Simply put, I think what Steve is saying is that a higher potential player who misses half of the season brings no more victories than a lower potential player who plays the whole season. At least, that is the way I am looking at it.

IF Bledsoe could spend the rest of the career healthy, he'd be a clear choice. The question is can we expect that? The answer, so far, is "No, we can't." Are the Suns willing to risk hoping for the best?

 

[KloD]

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 2m
Restricted free agent guard Isaiah Thomas visiting Suns today, sources tell Yahoo. Suns looking to build on deep backcourt.

Not exactly a rumor I was looking for, but I guess I wasn't specific enough. So for the record twitter world, I meant rumors of big men, not more PG's.

 

[KloD]

Brett Weisband ‏@weisband 6m
For the record, Isaiah Thomas told me yesterday that his top three choices are the Lakers, Suns and Dallas. Very interesting trio.

Apparently the Suns want him to backup Bledsoe and Dragic. If they do sign him, say goodbye to Smith.