2015 will be a good year for movies

[Zeno]

yeah... i got the under. 6 months? that's plenty of time for us to know if it's gonna hit that number because nothing stays in the theaters for longer then that. even Avatar which made 750.

Ok, internet handshake.

If it can get 60 Million+ in ticket sales it will get there. Dark Knight Rises sold 57 Million tickets and made $448 Mill (by comparison Revenge of the Sith sold 59 Mill tickets).

 

[Cheesebeef]

Ok, internet handshake.

If it can get 60 Million+ in ticket sales it will get there. Dark Knight Rises sold 57 Million tickets and made $448 Mill (by comparison Revenge of the Sith sold 59 Mill tickets).

done and done!

remember though... TDKR came off one of the biggest smashes of all time with TDK... and fell about 70 million dollars short of it's predecessor. That was coming on the heels of TDK juggernaut. These movies will be coming on the heels of the prequels, with some OT thrown in.

and I don't think it will take 6 months to figure this out. We'll know by weekend 1 if it's got 470 legs. Definitely by weekend 2 when we look at percentage drop.

the other thing this Star Wars will have going against it is it won't be playing during the summer, when kids are out and can see movies over and over again. There's been only two movies in the top ten that have ever come out outside summer time and they've both been James Cameron epics. Both groundbreaking in special effects and one of which had teenagers girl see fifteen thousand times.

 

[Cheesebeef]

FF6 did $240M I think FF7 will get a big Paul Walker bump.

I do too, but I don't think it'll be a 60 million dollar bump. Still, if it makes 275, that's pretty outrageous for a seventh entry in a franchise that was left for dead after it's 3rd movie.

 

[Shaggy]

I think you are missing a bump in what SW will get with Disney's marketing skills. That alone will add millions to it. They know how to market movies and we see it from their first teaser trailer. I think SW7 dominates the theaters for weeks.

 

[Zeno]

http://www.theweek.co.uk/arts-life/...aker-tips-film-to-be-highest-grossing-of-2015

Last year, Credit Suisse's Michael Senn predicted that the film would take $1.2bn at the box office, StarWars7News.com reports. This week, Cowan & Co. projected the exact same figure. But FBR Capital Markets goes further and says the film would likely take in $700m domestically and another $1bn overseas.

My bet is looking better and better.

 

[Azlen]

I don't care what any analyst says, it won't break $470MM unless it's a very good movie and there is no way to know that now. Potential is definitely there but that's all it is right now, potential.
I'm curious if it is going to break $200MM on it's opening weekend. I'm going to guess that it does.

 

[Zeno]

I don't care what any analyst says, it won't break $470MM unless it's a very good movie and there is no way to know that now. Potential is definitely there but that's all it is right now, potential.
I'm curious if it is going to break $200MM on it's opening weekend. I'm going to guess that it does.

Avatar wasn't a very good movie and it is the #1 box office hit of all time. It just has to be a "fun" movie and marketed right and it will be a smashing success.

 

[Proteus]

I don't care what any analyst says, it won't break $470MM unless it's a very good movie and there is no way to know that now. Potential is definitely there but that's all it is right now, potential.
I'm curious if it is going to break $200MM on it's opening weekend. I'm going to guess that it does.

According to Box Office Mojo's charts, the biggest opening weekend in December so far was the Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey at 84.6 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/

I'm kind of thinking 450 to 500 million for the domestic total.

 

[Azlen]

According to Box Office Mojo's charts, the biggest opening weekend in December so far was the Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey at 84.6 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/

I'm kind of thinking 450 to 500 million for the domestic total.

I don't think the month it opens is going to have much bearing on a property like Star Wars. It's going to have an Avengers like opening weekend regardless of when it opens. (Unless of course if the movie is just plain awful and word of mouth sinks the end of weekend numbers)

 

[Azlen]

Avatar wasn't a very good movie and it is the #1 box office hit of all time. It just has to be a "fun" movie and marketed right and it will be a smashing success.

I think it will be very successful, but it's going to have to be very good to have legs. If it gets a sub 30% Rotten Tomatoes score and audiences hate it as well, then it will still have a pretty good opening weekend but won't have lasting success. (Avatar scored well with critics and audiences even if you don't think it was very good.)

 

[Cheesebeef]

Avatar wasn't a very good movie and it is the #1 box office hit of all time. It just has to be a "fun" movie and marketed right and it will be a smashing success.

It's got to be great or revolutionary in some way for it to come even close to 700. Say what you will about Avatar, but it launched an entire generation into 3d.

I'm not really worried in the least about our bet. Again, the last trilogy's final entry made 380 million. And that was with EVERYONE wanting to see how Vader became Vader.

 

[BigRedRage]

I have never seen Avatar.

 

[puckhead]

It's got to be great or revolutionary in some way for it to come even close to 700. Say what you will about Avatar, but it launched an entire generation into 3d.

I'm not really worried in the least about our bet. Again, the last trilogy's final entry made 380 million. And that was with EVERYONE wanting to see how Vader became Vader.

I don't really care how this does at the box office.

However, my niece wasn't even born when Ep.3 came out and she's as big of a SW fan as I am. She was introduced by her dad and they watch the cartoons together.

So, there is some momentum with the younger age groups that didn't exist when Ep. 3 came out.

 

[UncleChris]

I have never seen Avatar.

Commie!!!!!!



j/k

 

[BigRedRage]

Commie!!!!!!



j/k

It didn't appeal to me at the time and from what I understand I won't get the same effect in my living room. OK movie, great visuals and 3d right?

 

[Cardinals.Ken]

I believe when discussing box office performance, that it's best to judge a film in terms of inflation adjustment.

Revenge Of The Sith made over $1 billion, worldwide, when adjusted to the CPI for 2014 dollars.

 

[Zeno]

http://fortune.com/2015/08/04/new-star-wars-movie-money/

The new Star Wars film, due for release this December, is expected to make around $2.2 billion globally, according to a Wall Street analyst.

Feeling good about my bet.

 

[Cheesebeef]

http://fortune.com/2015/08/04/new-star-wars-movie-money/



Feeling good about my bet.

Note that's 2.2 global, not domestic which we set at 470 million. That said, if Jurassic Remake made 620 and counting, I think it's pretty safe to say you're a very good shape to win this sucker.

 

[Zeno]

Note that's 2.2 global, not domestic which we set at 470 million. That said, if Jurassic Remake made 620 and counting, I think it's pretty safe to say you're a very good shape to win this sucker.

Last guesstimate I saw was around $685 million domestic. If it falls short of that by $200 million I still win

You know this is the only avatar bet I have ever done.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Last guesstimate I saw was around $685 million domestic. If it falls short of that by $200 million I still win

You know this is the only avatar bet I have ever done.

well, you're likely gonna be 1-1!

 

[Dback Jon]

FF7 goes over $300 Million.

i think that tops that out @ 275 domestic, maybe closer to 260.

FF6 did $240M I think FF7 will get a big Paul Walker bump.

I do too, but I don't think it'll be a 60 million dollar bump. Still, if it makes 275, that's pretty outrageous for a seventh entry in a franchise that was left for dead after it's 3rd movie.

Score one for me!

 

[Zeno]

well, you're likely gonna be 1-1!

I might as well win something sometime because I sure as heck never win the Powerball or Megamillions

 

[Cheesebeef]

Score one for me!

yup... I should not buy powerball tickets any time soon!

 

[BillsCarnage]

So let's recap..

January - American Sniper - Good
March - In the Heart of the Sea - didn't see it
May - Avengers: Age of Ultron - meh, didn't really like it
Mad Max: Fury Road - kick ass!
June - Jurassic World - sucked 'cept the dino fights
July - Terminator Genisys - sucked
Ant-Man - haven't seen it and not much urge too either
Sept - Everest - looks good
Nov - James Bond 24 - looks good
Dec - Star Wars The Force Awakens - Seriously, it's Star Wars

Those are just the ones I am interested in but there are plenty of others that may hit it at the box office
Fast & Furious 7 - didn't see the first 6, no interest in this
Hunger Games - no interest
Divergent - so-so
Poltergeist - $1 theater
Fantastic Four etc - not released

And to add in a few others

MI: Rogue Nation - Actually my first movie of the franchise and really liked it.
Tomorrowland - blah
Inside Out - I've heard it's really good
Deadpool - Trailers look good
The man from UNCLE - really looking forward to this

 

[Zeno]

So let's recap..


And to add in a few others

MI: Rogue Nation - Actually my first movie of the franchise and really liked it.
Tomorrowland - blah
Inside Out - I've heard it's really good
Deadpool - Trailers look good
The man from UNCLE - really looking forward to this

In the Heart of the Sea got pushed to a later release date, probably not a good sign.

I have seen the new MI, Terminator or Ant Man yet. I am gonna wait for Terminator on cable--plan to see Ant Man this weekend.

Fantastic 4 is getting shredded by reviews.

Some examples...
'Fantastic Four' review: the Marvel reboot for pretty much no one to enjoy--Chicago Tribune

Review: Powerfully mediocre 'Fantastic Four' is neither disaster nor success

'Fantastic Four' review: Marvel flames out

Why the new Fantastic Four film is terrible

Fantastic Four review - all set up little payoff

Fantastic Four review - a dawdling indie drama dressed up in superhero garb

'Fantastic Four' is a '100-Minute Trailer' for a Movie That Never Starts

"...the movie feels like a protracted teaser for a more exciting follow-up that, depending on whether audiences warm to this relatively low-key approach, might never happen

Miles Teller, Kate Mara, Michael B. Jordan and Jamie Bell have real team chemistry—for about 10 minutes and only after lots and lots of dull origin storytelling.

It's a muddled and underdeveloped origin story which segues jarringly from light-hearted adventure to heavy-handed grit, grasping for a gravitas that it hasn't earned


Deadpool is a 2016 release but I expect it to do well.