2023 4th round pick #122 is Jon Gaines II G

[Stout]

for the same reason On Base % wasnt selected for in MLB prior to Billy Beane?

Ooh, this could be a hot take. Maybe these kinds of combine stats will become more a predictor of how teams draft. I'm not buying it, but hey, you never know.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I believe there can be corollary data but that bias can skew it. If not, why aren't teams using this as one of the top measures? It would seem the smart thing to do. Unless the other comment about Billy Beane plays out. I agree with how the Cards view Gaines, and I hope they're right. As I've said, none of this is a commentary on him as a player.

There is still a massive battle between traditional scouting and analytics.

The smart teams are going to develop a marriage between the two. Scouting is really hard because of the sheer number of players that scouts look at throughout a year. They scout 1000's of players and have to reduce that list down to 250. That's a tough task.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

lol If this cheat code were so legit, why'd he go in the 4th round? Because it's not anywhere close to a guarantee of anything.

In one way, I hate the combine, because it skews a loooot of thinking about players because "ooh, he looked great in shorts" and suddenly mediocre players are labeled sure-fire stares, and vice-versa. The physical measurement part of the combine has value really in some rule out scenarios, but even then I feel it goes overboard. I think the real value in the combine is in the interview processes and the interactions with players and other scouts and front offices.

Same reason why most teams don't draft kickers? They don't value the position with draft picks.

 

[gmabel830]

Other guys in the top 10 are,

Eric Steinbach
David Baas
Evan Mathis
Brandon Brooks
Ali Marpet
Trey Smith
Steve Hutchinson
Cole Strange

I'd more than settle for Gaines being on the back-half of this list in terms of how it works out.

 

[jf-08]

Book smart doesn’t automatically translate to other types of intelligence. Think how many book smart but street dumb people exist. Heck, look at cheese.

Warning don't attack a poster.

.....Wait a minute...

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

But this isn't the same situation.

This is a big, agile guy who is smart. Sounds like a center to me.

I get it. If we were talking about a 5'10, 240 lb rocket scientist being tried at center, you would have a salient point, but that's not the case here.

Gaines scored very well on drills that are highly indicative of success, so he has a good chance of making it in the NFL. Couple that with his obvious drive and I think he can develop.

I’m not arguing he can’t develop. I hope he does. Just arguing getting recruited to Princeton has little in the way of being an indicator as to potential success at center.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

John Michael Schmitz didn't hit the "cheat code" threshold btw.

I love that small data set now equals direct predictive correlation.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Look at the data for yourself. If you don't think that linemen meeting that threshold starting 85% of their games is significant, I don't know what to tell you.

Football is a complicated game and it makes evaluating players even more complicated.

From the Cardinals own comments, Jon Gaines was incredibly impressive during the interview process. He wasn't just a combine wonder, though he did post a top 10% workout.

Where were the other guys drafted? If they were drafted higher it means that shuttle timing just happens be a common occurrence among the top lineman, it doesn’t make that one data point dispositive of anything. And in fact perhaps causes me to question Gaines even more because it means that data point didn’t translate to success like the other highly drafted guys. Of course. I have no idea where those guys were drafted, nor do I care enough to research.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I believe there can be corollary data but that bias can skew it. If not, why aren't teams using this as one of the top measures? It would seem the smart thing to do. Unless the other comment about Billy Beane plays out. I agree with how the Cards view Gaines, and I hope they're right. As I've said, none of this is a commentary on him as a player.

It can be as simple as:

Great players tend to share this trait; but

Not all players with this trait are great.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Warning don't attack a poster.

.....Wait a minute...

Bring him back from the van and he’ll tell you this himself. Or, you could just use the ban itself as evidence of same . . .

 

[Krangodnzr]

I love that small data set now equals direct predictive correlation.

You think 10 years with 100s of players is a small data set?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Where were the other guys drafted? If they were drafted higher it means that shuttle timing just happens be a common occurrence among the top lineman, it doesn’t make that one data point dispositive of anything.

All over the draft. Look at the list provided in the video. Quite a few days three guys

And in fact perhaps causes me to question Gaines even more because it means that data point didn’t translate to success like the other highly drafted guys.

Linemen are often victims of circumstances.

Of course. I have no idea where those guys were drafted, nor do I care enough to research.

But you cared enough to refute the point from a position of ignorance on the topic. This isn't exactly Qanon stuff where it's understandable that you wouldn't watch.

 

[Krangodnzr]

It can be as simple as:

Great players tend to share this trait; but

Not all players with this trait are great.

But if the players who share this trait, they started 85% of games played.

I'd call this a reason for hope. This isn't Lecitus Smith who looked nice on tape but was a minus athlete.

 

[Goldfield]

But you've already googled and name dropped every Center that started out as a Guard, while acting like posters couldn't understand that some players do change positions. Now you're saying Gaines is a Guard, got it

Unnecessary

 

[Goldfield]

I love that small data set now equals direct predictive correlation.

No making up words!

 

[Chopper0080]

Warning don't attack a poster.

.....Wait a minute...

JF like "he does have a point tho..."

 

[jf-08]

JF like "he does have a point tho..."

It was because I don't get involved in family spats!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You think 10 years with 100s of players is a small data set?

The data set presented was 10 players. Maybe another set of ten players with a worse range of shuttle times hit 90% success. We don’t know that data isn’t included.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

All over the draft. Look at the list provided in the video. Quite a few days three guys

Linemen are often victims of circumstances.

But you cared enough to refute the point from a position of ignorance on the topic. This isn't exactly Qanon stuff where it's understandable that you wouldn't watch.

No, I wasn’t refuting it. I was pointing out the potential holes in the assumption being made.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

No making up words!

Lol. Which word did I make up? You can find each in the dictionary.

 

[Stout]

It was a bad center class for those players we looked at at Center. Nobody looked at Gaines as a Center in the larger draft world so we never considered him. The Cards, having met him and scouted him, may see him as a Center that was better than what was available that played C in college.

I'm not in any way saying "Be happy, peons". Not sure how you get that. I'm simply speculating that all the things being said about Gaines (highly intelligent, great football IQ etc) are things you want in a Center and as we are pretty heavy at Guard on the roster they may well see him as a Center convert. Like Rodney Hudson was.

Steve Avila was my favorite prospect for center. I've said it a number of times. That tells you how much I liked the center class. The whole IOL line class in this draft was consistently touted as one of the weakest groups by experts.

@Krangodnzr @BritCard

 

[Krangodnzr]

@Krangodnzr @BritCard

Ok you are right. @BritCard did say this.

 

[BritCard]

@Krangodnzr @BritCard

Ok you are right. @BritCard did say this.

Saying it's bad is not "trash".

There was no top end talent. Cam Jurgens would have been the first center drafted in this class. A lot of older prospects that are middling talent.

Quite a few sixes and sevens. No eights or nines. I think that counts as a bad class.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Saying it's bad is not "trash".

There was no top end talent. Cam Jurgens would have been the first center drafted in this class. A lot of older prospects that are middling talent.

Quite a few sixes and sevens. No eights or nines. I think that counts as a bad class.

I'd say it's a similar statement.

The most accurate statement is:

There was no top talent(s) (meaning no 1st round) but there was a lot of depth. Crazy that Juice Scruggs went so high, but there is often players that NFL teams like more than draftniks.

Remember that one of the aspects that was sold to us about the incoming personnel guys is that Dave Sears has a keen eye for OL talent. And the team has directly mentioned Gaines as a center, so it sounds like they want a longer look there.

 

[BirdGangThing]

@Krangodnzr @BritCard

lol it's pointless bro, some people can't admit the sky is blue