Yes, Chris, that is 100% true and is something I say every year when draft talk comes around. It's a crap shoot. Everyone, I don't care who it is, comes with odds that we can't possibly know.
That said, it isn't like you are unveiling some great revelation here. These things have been said about Nolen for four years. Gannon and Monti are well aware of them and have heard a lot more than you have. They met the kid. And after all that, they took him.
They could well be wrong but it won't be because you knew something and they didn't.