A Theory on Why Keim Needs to Go

[TheCardFan]

this

Olsen Pierre in last year's scheme produced 5.5 sacks from the interior --playing part time

why should the team let that go?

What happened to him this year and what is our scheme moving forward?

What do you pay a guy like that on this team?

These are the issues Keim has not dealt with favorably. Over pay a guy that had zero sacks in 2018?

How much of our crappy run defense was the fault of our DT's?

Want to go big...Grady Jarrett (Falcons) would be my choice. You also have Sheldon Richardson or Suh. All are going to be FA's.

 

[cardpa]

I guess because John Brown has shown that he can play football for multiple seasons in the NFL, even if he's maybe not a great starter. What you're saying is that Sherfield had one game where he had 77 yards and four games where he had a total of 50 yards. Sounds like a starting-caliber NFL wideout.

We could've had both. I think that any process that ends with you deciding that Brice Butler and Greg Little are as good as John Brown is a process that is bad. That's what happened this last offseason.

I don't argue about this at all, I'm just not sure Brown is worth $5 million. I guess I would have to look and see what kind of money WRs like Brown are getting now. I certainly would have retained Brown over Nelson even back then.

 

[cardpa]

It isn't love. It is that we are talking about being desperate for WRs a year after we let a 5 TD, 700 yd WR walk for 5 mil. It is the idea of letting a proven commodity walk out the door when you have no clue if the guy you are replacing him on the roster can replace his production.

We let Alex Okafor go and he is making 2.3 mil. We bring in Mayowa who has been good for 1.3 mil. We saved a mil but had to integrate a whole new player into the system. Kareem Martin is making 3.5 mil. Maybe we could have had him for 3 mil. At some point it is worth keeping your 3rd and 4th DE/OLB around to build up a position of strength.

Imagine having Veldheer and Massie with DJ having to force them out of their starting spot. It only would have cost us 5 mil per season.

Paying Jaron Brown 1.7 mil instead of having to bring in both Greg Little and Brice Butler.

Sometimes paying for production you know is better than paying for something that you don't know. It also can keep you from overspending which huge amounts of cap space can do. I would have rather have Okafor, Jaron Brown, and John Brown than Jermaine Gresham.

I'm still not sure Brown is worth $5 million but considering what they did to the receiver corps He may have been worth $5 million to this team. I never could understand why they let Okafor go and I think they were wrong to let Jaron Brown escape. Massie was a Keim/Arians mistake as was Okafor. Veldheer was a choice of keeping Him or Humphries and both had injury concerns the last couple years. Neither played well at RT so they decided to stay with Hump and let Veldheer go. If you go by PFF rankings the Hump is rated higher (#35) compared to Veldheer at #54. Both have played in 10 games this year. Not sure either one is worth much.

 

[TheCardFan]

I'm still not sure Brown is worth $5 million but considering what they did to the receiver corps He may have been worth $5 million to this team. I never could understand why they let Okafor go and I think they were wrong to let Jaron Brown escape. Massie was a Keim/Arians mistake as was Okafor. Veldheer was a choice of keeping Him or Humphries and both had injury concerns the last couple years. Neither played well at RT so they decided to stay with Hump and let Veldheer go. If you go by PFF rankings the Hump is rated higher (#35) compared to Veldheer at #54. Both have played in 10 games this year. Not sure either one is worth much.

Veldheer is average and maybe not worth the 7m but as in every case, Keim didn't replace him with a quality player = net loss.

Okafor is also average. Not sure he has done anything that makes me miss him being on the team.

Humphries will be the next in line. Oft injured, average talent, and playing a high paying position...do we pay him the big bucks to stay? I would say no but would also have a plan to replace him.

Veldheer and Massie are both FA's in 2019.

Then you look at a team like the Patriots. All of these guys are solid but only 2 are getting paid and those 2 are not breaking the bank.

LT - Trent Brown (7th rd pick) getting paid 700k (FA in 2019)
LG - Joe Thuney (3rd rd pick) getting paid 700k
C - David Andrews (UDFA) getting paid 900k (4 year/4m contract extension)
RG - Shaq Mason (4th rd pick) and getting paid 10m/year (Top 10 OG money...not the top)
RT - Marcus Cannon (5th rd pick) and getting paid 6m/year (new contract)

That is what a GM and HC are responsible for...and these guys block for the GOAT.

Humphries is getting ready to be paid 10m. He hasn't played much at all and when he did this year, he have up 5 sacks in 9 games. We can do better than that...the problem is we don't do it.

Joe Barksdale hasn't given up a sack in his last 19 games. Is this a guy worth keeping and for how much?

 

[GatorAZ]

I think I’ve posted this before... especially after Keim’s DUI.
Along with your theory - which is spot on, I also believe Keim fell prey to the trappings that come when you believe you are “the man.” I had seen him out a few functions, and not only was surprised by how much he drank, but also by his demeanor and the way he carried himself. I sensed no humility. Instead, he came across as a pompous snob...
I think in some way, he lost focus on the little things that had helped him get to where he was.
And ultimately, I believe his DUI was the culmination of where he has been heading for quite some time. The hubris it takes to drink the way he was and get behind the wheel of a car, speaks volumes about the man...

It was only two beers.

 

[Buckybird]

I like a Keim, but Bottom line is he struck out big time in FA this season!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Baker has pretty much disappeared(17 tackles in the last 5 games and hasn't had a single interception all season) and Golden hasn't been the same since injury.

This. He’s no honey badger. He’s not a great player. He’s average, which for us seems awesome. He might evolve into something more. But right now he’s an occasional splash play and a whole lotta “uh, yeah he’s okay.”

 

[Arz101]

It was only two beers.

Two might still be right if the size of mug is this no?

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[DVontel]

This. He’s no honey badger. He’s not a great player. He’s average, which for us seems awesome. He might evolve into something more. But right now he’s an occasional splash play and a whole lotta “uh, yeah he’s okay.”

He might not be great atm(I mean, who is currently on this D? Even Chandler & PP haven’t played great, but like Budda, I assert that to them just mailing it in), but he’s definitely not average. Plus, he has been playing through a knee injury the past month.

If I’m on the hill alone, then so be it.

 

[b8rtm8nn]

He might not be great atm(I mean, who is currently on this D? Even Chandler & PP haven’t played great, but like Budda, I assert that to them just mailing it in), but he’s definitely not average. Plus, he has been playing through a knee injury the past month.

If I’m on the hill alone, then so be it.

He is a Pro Bowl alternate, so you are not alone.

 

[perivolaki]

I said it in the gameday thread. Give me one player drafted from 2013 to 2018 currently on the active roster who is making a significant impact. Even DJ, for one reason or another, isn't setting the world on fire right now.

I agree with you. We do tend to focus on the offensive line, but we never have really had that top shelf line. What bothers me more is that they have never replaced Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington. When we had those two flying around from the linebacker position we really made life difficult for the opponents offense. We've never even come close to replacing that production from that position.

 

[Veer]

I agree with you. We do tend to focus on the offensive line, but we never have really had that top shelf line. What bothers me more is that they have never replaced Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington. When we had those two flying around from the linebacker position we really made life difficult for the opponents offense. We've never even come close to replacing that production from that position.

To be fair, Dansby and Washington were almost generational players. Dansby had proven to be great over a long period. If it wasn't for Washington's off field stuff, he would be regarded as an elite LB right now.

But I agree that Keim has failed in that regard. Especially the OL hurts, since we brought in high priced FAs and invested multiple draft picks, hence a 7th overall pick! Right now OL is on top of our priority list yet again. I believe our defense has some solid pieces to build around and just Wilks' scheme holding them back. Not many teams have both an elite pass rusher and elite CB, along with Baker being one of the best slot CBs. But on OL, we basically have nothing.

 

[Reddog]

I think I’ve posted this before... especially after Keim’s DUI.
Along with your theory - which is spot on, I also believe Keim fell prey to the trappings that come when you believe you are “the man.” I had seen him out a few functions, and not only was surprised by how much he drank, but also by his demeanor and the way he carried himself. I sensed no humility. Instead, he came across as a pompous snob...
I think in some way, he lost focus on the little things that had helped him get to where he was.
And ultimately, I believe his DUI was the culmination of where he has been heading for quite some time. The hubris it takes to drink the way he was and get behind the wheel of a car, speaks volumes about the man...

BA and Keim shared more than their hometown. They were drinking buddies and I think there is way more to BA's health and exit than meets the eye. Why else would he miraculously feel rejuvenated enough to coach the Browns. As an ex DA I can't imagine Bidwill is cool with a double DUI in Keim. If he lost faith in the duo but still felt a sense of loyalty to Keim he might have over-stepped his authority reaching for Wilks because he was known to be a straight laced man of character and very opposite of the BASK in terms of those party traits. Unfortunately, he might have found a good man but he didn't have the coaching experience or teeth to succeed. Given BASK's win now strategy and Keim's unavailability in the off season I'm not sure any coach could have turned this roster into a winner. I kind of feel bad for Wilks and the way his reputation has been forever tarnished through this experience. If this theory is right it will be interesting to see what Bidwill does now.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

There are only 32 GM positions in the NFL, and only a handful (3-5?) become available each season. If you're having to fight over candidates for this role, your franchise already has a poisonous problem.

The NFL is such a year-to-year league, it's difficult to see what a "desperate" GM can do to screw a team in the long term. This isn't the NBA where a GM can spin out a long-term, fully guaranteed contract.

But they can grasp at bandaids instead of long term planning and that’s precisely what I expect outta Keim and his desperation. More oldies coming in . . .

 

[kerouac9]

But they can grasp at bandaids instead of long term planning and that’s precisely what I expect outta Keim and his desperation. More oldies coming in . . .

Whom do you foresee? Do you want to be good next year, or do you want to be bad? The Rams took a big step forward in 2017 by adding a bunch of veterans to one of the oldest rosters in the league. The Browns did the same thing last offseason. That's what the Eagles did to help make their way to the Super Bowl.

There is no long-term planning in the NFL. If you go out more than a year or two, unexpected injuries will derail your plan, and with the cap going up $10 million a year, there isn't really a penalty for making dumb cap decisions.

 

[CardLogic]

Both Arians and Keim hail from the same hometown of York Pa.

BA and Keim shared more than their hometown.

Minor point: Arians grew up in York, PA; Keim hails from Harrisburg, PA. Certainly, the same region of Pennsylvania, but not the same hometown at all.

 

[JeffGollin]

With all that's being written, I have no clue a to what the Cardinal mgt culture is like, how the various principals interact with one another, where the power lies, what's going on in peoples' heads, how they react to lessons of past seasons, how they get along with Goodell, how they view the value and leverage of money etc.

Not knowing this stuff, how can we even guess what Card mgt. will do a few months from now.

 

[cardpa]

Minor point: Arians grew up in York, PA; Keim hails from Harrisburg, PA. Certainly, the same region of Pennsylvania, but not the same hometown at all.

I stand corrected however there is still a York county connection. See the article.

https://www.ydr.com/story/sports/20...ona-bruce-arians-steve-keim-leading/72103444/

 

[cardpa]

Whom do you foresee? Do you want to be good next year, or do you want to be bad? The Rams took a big step forward in 2017 by adding a bunch of veterans to one of the oldest rosters in the league. The Browns did the same thing last offseason. That's what the Eagles did to help make their way to the Super Bowl.

There is no long-term planning in the NFL. If you go out more than a year or two, unexpected injuries will derail your plan, and with the cap going up $10 million a year, there isn't really a penalty for making dumb cap decisions.

I don't totally agree with this statement. How do you explain the Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, and Packers long term success? There has to be some sort of long term planning to stay near the top year in and year out. You can say to some extent the QB position on each of these teams but the QB alone cannot win games. They need some sort of support around them. You would think there must be some sort of plan moving forward or at least some sort of long term view of where they will be 5 years or more down the road.

 

[NJCardFan]

I don't totally agree with this statement. How do you explain the Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, and Packers long term success? There has to be some sort of long term planning to stay near the top year in and year out. You can say to some extent the QB position on each of these teams but the QB alone cannot win games. They need some sort of support around them. You would think there must be some sort of plan moving forward or at least some sort of long term view of where they will be 5 years or more down the road.

The Patriots, I theorize, is due to one of 2 reasons. #1, Belichick's system works and he finds players who fit his system(can't stress enough that he won 11 games with Matt Cassel). Sort of like when Herb Brooks put together the 1980 Olympic hockey team. He got the best players that fit his system, not the very best players. He then jockeys his draft picks, trades down, trades them away for players that fit the system, etc. When was the last time the Pats drafted a real impact player(and don't say Brady because he hit the lottery with that one)? Theory #2 is Belichick sold his soul to Satan. As for Seattle, let's face it. If they didn't get lucky with Wilson, would they have been as successful with Matt Flynn or Tavaris Jackson?

 

[Cheesebeef]

The Patriots, I theorize, is due to one of 2 reasons. #1, Belichick's system works and he finds players who fit his system(can't stress enough that he won 11 games with Matt Cassel). Sort of like when Herb Brooks put together the 1980 Olympic hockey team. He got the best players that fit his system, not the very best players. He then jockeys his draft picks, trades down, trades them away for players that fit the system, etc. When was the last time the Pats drafted a real impact player(and don't say Brady because he hit the lottery with that one)? Theory #2 is Belichick sold his soul to Satan. As for Seattle, let's face it. If they didn't get lucky with Wilson, would they have been as successful with Matt Flynn or Tavaris Jackson?

I'm going with Theory 2.

 

[cardpa]

The Patriots, I theorize, is due to one of 2 reasons. #1, Belichick's system works and he finds players who fit his system(can't stress enough that he won 11 games with Matt Cassel). Sort of like when Herb Brooks put together the 1980 Olympic hockey team. He got the best players that fit his system, not the very best players. He then jockeys his draft picks, trades down, trades them away for players that fit the system, etc. When was the last time the Pats drafted a real impact player(and don't say Brady because he hit the lottery with that one)? Theory #2 is Belichick sold his soul to Satan. As for Seattle, let's face it. If they didn't get lucky with Wilson, would they have been as successful with Matt Flynn or Tavaris Jackson?

No doubt luck plays into it to some extent and I agree Brady was a fortunate pick. Seattle got lucky with Wilson. Theory #2 has some validity. The real point is they have plans and they also know how to execute those plans with good research and scouting. This is where I believe Keim falls short. With him and Arians the plan was to win now and damn the future. Arians wanted a Lombardi trophy and he didn't really care if it sunk the team long term if he got it. Keim went along for the ride and never did anything to plan for the long term once Arians was gone. Same with Whiz, there was never a long term plan or as they say a vision of how to make the Cardinal franchise a long term success. The successful ones have a vision and a plan on how to achieve that vision. I don't think Keim has a vision and he's the one more than any other person in the franchise needs to have a vision and a plan on how to get there and once there stay there.

 

[Arz101]

Any program where Brady is the QB is not a model. What John Harbaugh does with Ravens with average QBs is a great model. So does Andy Reid.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't totally agree with this statement. How do you explain the Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, and Packers long term success? There has to be some sort of long term planning to stay near the top year in and year out. You can say to some extent the QB position on each of these teams but the QB alone cannot win games. They need some sort of support around them. You would think there must be some sort of plan moving forward or at least some sort of long term view of where they will be 5 years or more down the road.

I think it’s definitely having a great QB for all those teams, but it’s also having a vision, not a plan, for your roster. All those teams had a vision for how they’re allocating their resources, and they stuck to it because they only needed to hit on A, B, and C to keep the machine running.

I think that part of Keim’s problem is that he had a plan, not a vision. He’s planned for Diche to replace Campbell. He had a plan for Humphries to be the foundation at LT. He had a plan for Baker to replace Honey Badger and for Minter to replace Dansby and for Bucannon to replace Washington.

All of those guys turned out to be downgraded, and so you temporarily staunch the bleeding with free agents and then have to use more draft capital to replace the guys you don’t extend.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I think it’s definitely having a great QB for all those teams, but it’s also having a vision, not a plan, for your roster. All those teams had a vision for how they’re allocating their resources, and they stuck to it because they only needed to hit on A, B, and C to keep the machine running.

I think that part of Keim’s problem is that he had a plan, not a vision. He’s planned for Diche to replace Campbell. He had a plan for Humphries to be the foundation at LT. He had a plan for Baker to replace Honey Badger and for Minter to replace Dansby and for Bucannon to replace Washington.

All of those guys turned out to be downgraded, and so you temporarily staunch the bleeding with free agents and then have to use more draft capital to replace the guys you don’t extend.

And how would a vision vs a plan changed any of those decisions ?