A theory to the Cardinals approach to the draft...

Chopper0080

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So, reading through the tea leaves, here are my thoughts on what I feel the Cardinals are going to do in this draft.

1-There are very few players the Cardinals will actually value in round 1.

-Paxton Lynch-QB: Revisionist history or not, the Cardinals acknowledgement of the differences between college and the pro in the DJ Humphries case makes me believe that drafting and developing a QB is more of an option than it has been in the past with Arians. Lynch has size, arm strength, and showed some accuracy. If Arians believes the tools are there, Keim will pull the trigger.

-Cody Whitehair-OL: The Cardinals have made a priority of upgrading the offensive line since Keim and Arians took over. What we have seen from the players that they have added is a preference for consistency and availability. Whitehair offers more of both of these than Ryan Kelly. I don't believe the Cardinals will stand pat and select Kelly in round 1. I do believe they would take Whitehair if they thought he could transition to C, especially with Mathis signed and who could make the line calls.

-Vernon Butler-DL: The Cardinals do not feel that NT is a huge priority for the team so I don't believe they would stand pat and draft Jarran Reed, Kenny Clark, or A'Shawn Robinson. Butler on the other hand offers length and pass rush ability that these players have not shown and is not currently on the Cardinals roster. This makes Butler a real possibility for the Cardinals at 29.

-Leonard Floyd-OLB: Floyd looks the part, but needs to develop physically. That is for certain. But, similar to Paxton Lynch, the Cardinals are very aware of the rarity that size/speed rush prospects are available. If Floyd was available, the Cardinals will jump at the chance to add a player who they can have fill a role early as a pure pass rusher while he builds his body to handle a larger role.

-Eli Apple-CB: The Cardinals preach how much the value length which is why they signed Cro when they had Powers already outside, and signed Bethel to a deal despite struggling at times. Eli offers size, speed, and experience which is rare. The Cardinals would pick Apple if he was available at 29 because of scheme fit, size, athleticism, and experience vs major competition.

With that in mind, most of these players are projected to be gone when the Cardinals pick. This leaves the most likely scenario for the Cardinals in round 1 which is a trade back. The more I dig into Kelly, the more he seems to mirror the frustrations the Cardinals had with Cooper. Also, there are other options at C which could be had later in the draft. None of the edge players really show much quickness difference from Markus Golden. Also, looking at the number of open positions in 2017, the Cardinals will be looking to add multiple players to fill out that roster. The more draft picks, the more options. My guess is that the Cardinals trade back, adding either a 3rd or 2nd (if lucky). From their they open their options to a much larger number of players who offer solid potential but with a little more risk.
 

Goldfield

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Those seem to make the most sense. If Kiem feels Lynch can become a good nfl QB then I would welcome that move if he is still available.
 

Cardiac

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Good read and I have to admit the possibility of drafting a QB is more of an option than I would like. I get the QB of the future thing but getting Butler would be my preference.
 

kerouac9

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You have to have a buyer who wants to move up in order to trade back. I think that's a reason that Keim took Humphries last year — there wasn't a buyer offering the right deal to move down.

Obviously, if a high-level prospect falls into their laps, they're going to take him. If someone offers a two-for-one to trade back into the second round, they'll likely take that deal if a top prospect isn't there (maybe if there is, depending on the available deal).

I think the compelling question is what happens if a top prospect isn't there, and there's no compelling deal available? Would they take a guy like Max Tuerk?
 

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If they are going to draft a QB, I personally, would like to see them trade down to make the selection in round 2-3. In several mocks, they have Lynch going in mid first round.
 

juza76

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From what i read they showed interest in these qbs so far:
Prescott
Linch
hogan accurate getting better year by year good athleticism
Doughty very accurate but doesnt have elite arm plus not very athletic
Cardale jones big arm but just 8 games played as a starter
 

Cardsfanstl

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Since we do not have a 2nd round pick they will stay pat unless some team with a very early 2nd rd pick packaged with either a 3rd or 4th rd pick. Not much difference in the 30th 1st rd pick and 33-37 2nd rd picks.
 

Shaggy

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I'm liking hogan more then Lynch more and more. Seems he Iis more of a NFL qb then Lynch is right now.
 

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Nice work up Chopper. Like you, I too believe that the Cards will take a hard look at Paxton Lynch as our QBOF. This would be an ideal draft to do that with him having two years to develop before he is needed to be a starter.

I also agree that they might also go with a C, (especially if they can get their choice) after trading out of the first round to gain an extra pick. That will be very tempting to Keim I would think.

You also make a lot of sense with your thoughts of taking the speed rusher who could be developed into a more versatile player, but I really feel that our first selection will be either QB or OL. Solid thoughts on your summation.
 

bg7brd

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I think if Paxton Lynch starts getting close to 29 we'll get leapfrogged by the Broncos again.
 

Krangodnzr

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I'm liking hogan more then Lynch more and more. Seems he Iis more of a NFL qb then Lynch is right now.

I haven't watched much Lynch, but I have seen a lot of Hogan as well.

I think his ceiling is long term back up and thats it. I've never watched Stanford and thought "this guy is NFL starting material".
 

juza76

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I haven't watched much Lynch, but I have seen a lot of Hogan as well.

I think his ceiling is long term back up and thats it. I've never watched Stanford and thought "this guy is NFL starting material".

Do u Think Michigan fans thought Brady was starting material in the Nfl?
 
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Chopper0080

Chopper0080

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You have to have a buyer who wants to move up in order to trade back. I think that's a reason that Keim took Humphries last year — there wasn't a buyer offering the right deal to move down.

Obviously, if a high-level prospect falls into their laps, they're going to take him. If someone offers a two-for-one to trade back into the second round, they'll likely take that deal if a top prospect isn't there (maybe if there is, depending on the available deal).

I think the compelling question is what happens if a top prospect isn't there, and there's no compelling deal available? Would they take a guy like Max Tuerk?

Here is the scenario in which I feel a team is going to want to trade up. There are several fringe first round tackles that teams are going to hope fall to round 2, and those teams could be enticed to move up. The same argument can be made for run stuffing defensive tackles who may not be a great fit for AZ but might be a fit for another team.

I look at players like Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed, Andrew Billings, Kevin Dodd, Atylro Decker, Corey Coleman, Jonathan Bullard, Josh Doctson, Jason Spriggs, Will Fuller, Derrick Henry, Germain Ifedl, and i believe that they are players teams may want to move up for, but aren't great fits for AZ. WR, OT, DT are positions where there aren't a bunch of top 10 guys, but good values at the end of round 1 or early 2.
 
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Chopper0080

Chopper0080

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I think if Paxton Lynch starts getting close to 29 we'll get leapfrogged by the Broncos again.

I would agree. IMO, I'm shocked if Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Cook and Hogan aren't all taken in the first two rounds. I don't see much being available at QB when the Cards pick in round 3.
 
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Chopper0080

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Oh, and the name (or position) that wouldn't shock me at #29 if the aforementioned are gone, and the Cards trade back, Karl Joseph. (S)
 

SissyBoyFloyd

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I think we go CB in R1 unless a DE/DT fall to us, but that means not reaching for one also.

R3 I would love for us to grab Cardell Jones as out future QB.

In R4 is where we grab a C,G, or OT who can be moved to C/G.

R5 is a good spot to pick up a safety, if we don't take one in R3 over the QB Jones.

R6 would best be used to trade up in one of the earlier rounds to grab one of the above who we really cherish. I don't see any 6th round players making our team.
 

Mitch

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I would agree. IMO, I'm shocked if Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Cook and Hogan aren't all taken in the first two rounds. I don't see much being available at QB when the Cards pick in round 3.

Dak Prescott has drawn interest...and now the Cardinals are bringing in Cardale Jones for a visit...they are "intrigued with his upside" according to MJ.
 

juza76

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Dak Prescott has drawn interest...and now the Cardinals are bringing in Cardale Jones for a visit...they are "intrigued with his upside" according to MJ.

Normally they take players they didnt bring for a visit
 
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Chopper0080

Chopper0080

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I think we go CB in R1 unless a DE/DT fall to us, but that means not reaching for one also.

R3 I would love for us to grab Cardell Jones as out future QB.

In R4 is where we grab a C,G, or OT who can be moved to C/G.

R5 is a good spot to pick up a safety, if we don't take one in R3 over the QB Jones.

R6 would best be used to trade up in one of the earlier rounds to grab one of the above who we really cherish. I don't see any 6th round players making our team.

The need is absolutely there for a CB in round 1. My question is if Keim is sold on the CBs who will be available. I don't love who I think will be on the board, but he could/will differ.
 
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Chopper0080

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Dak Prescott has drawn interest...and now the Cardinals are bringing in Cardale Jones for a visit...they are "intrigued with his upside" according to MJ.

I have a tough time buying the Cards drafting Prescott or Jones prior to the 5th or 6th round.
 

oaken1

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The Cardinals have a history of liking versatility on the o-line,...that should give whitehair an edge... since our starting right guard is on a holding pattern for retirement and the level of faith in Watford does not appear to be stellar I would expect a guard to come in to play in this draft....... a guy to watch may be Josua Garnett from Stanford,...well balanced in both run and pass blocking.

I have always liked Cardale Jones...his first three starts were awesome,... but he has shown that when the regular season is in play he is not as productive...being "Money" in the playoffs is fantastic.....but you have to get to the playoffs.... I would not be upset if they pick him, but they have to be prepared to make him sit for the next two years IMO..outside of Wentz and Geoff Jones may be the next best shot at an actual franchise type QB but he needs a lot of work......

still like the idea of picking up Jordan Howard for our backfield...the kid is special...
 

juza76

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I think we go CB in R1 unless a DE/DT fall to us, but that means not reaching for one also.

R3 I would love for us to grab Cardell Jones as out future QB.

In R4 is where we grab a C,G, or OT who can be moved to C/G.

R5 is a good spot to pick up a safety, if we don't take one in R3 over the QB Jones.

R6 would best be used to trade up in one of the earlier rounds to grab one of the above who we really cherish. I don't see any 6th round players making our team.
We have 2 picks in Round 5
 

oaken1

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I would also expect SK is looking towards potential summer cuts to fill in some of our spots,...get experienced vets at a discounted price.... in many cases a vet with experience in the nfl is better suited to start than a rookie with more talent....this is what I am expecting as far as our secondary goes...we need a CB2, but an automatic starter likely will not be there by 29.....same with safety...not enough blue chip players in this draft, as far as defensive secondary, to fill out the first round.
 

juza76

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I would also expect SK is looking towards potential summer cuts to fill in some of our spots,...get experienced vets at a discounted price.... in many cases a vet with experience in the nfl is better suited to start than a rookie with more talent....this is what I am expecting as far as our secondary goes...we need a CB2, but an automatic starter likely will not be there by 29.....same with safety...not enough blue chip players in this draft, as far as defensive secondary, to fill out the first round.

A guy like Marcus Peters was Miles better then any veterans being cut in August.
Same can be said about darby
cb is a position where speed instict and effort are so much important
So I prefer getting a CB in the draft
 

Buckybird

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I think we go CB in R1 unless a DE/DT fall to us, but that means not reaching for one also.

R3 I would love for us to grab Cardell Jones as out future QB.

In R4 is where we grab a C,G, or OT who can be moved to C/G.

R5 is a good spot to pick up a safety, if we don't take one in R3 over the QB Jones.

R6 would best be used to trade up in one of the earlier rounds to grab one of the above who we really cherish. I don't see any 6th round players making our team.

You do remember that guy named Blogan Thomas don't you? IMO Cardelle ain't much better. Personally I think The hogs Brandon Allen is a hidden gem & who I'd take a shot on in RDs 3 or 4
 

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