According to Chris Mortenson

[joeshmo]

While Henry is certainly an upgrade to our current RB stable,

Understatement of the year.

he's not a dominant back.

Top 10 in Yards and TD's both years he started, all behind a very suspect oline, and a bottom 5 passing attack in 2003.

Henry's yards per carry has declined over the last three years

2002 - 4.4 YPC with a top 5 passing attack.
2003 - 4.1 YPC with a bottom 5 passing attack.
2004 - 3.5 - I will give you this year though.

 

[joeshmo]

With Henry coming off a broken leg, Bennett on the block, all the backs in FA and the draft this year - I'll be surprised if Buffalo gets a 2 round pick for him.

And the closer to the draft we get, the more his value drops.

That is what I was thinking. A 2nd rounder is just a starting point for negotiations, I doubt they get that as well. I would give them a 2nd just doubt they get it.

 

[Redsz]

Man, I'm with Joe on this. I pretty much totally agree with everything he has said in relation to this.

I pulled this from the Bills Report, from a guy who does excellent write ups about the Bills. Just some food for thought for those of us who don't seem too keen on Henry:

Running Back: C+ Last season, had Travis Henry started and played all 16 games, extrapolating from his 14 game stats, he would have had 372 carries for 1,542 yards on 4.1 yards-per-carry. Had Willis McGahee started the first four games, his 16 game totals based on extrapolations of the last 12 games that he played in starting all but one would have been 353 carries for 1,411 yards on 4.0 yards-per-carry. When one considers that Henry played through a broken femur and had absolutely no support from an even worse Humpty-led passing game featuring Eric Moulds playing injured throughout most of the season and with no bonafide second WR, Henry’s rushing last season should be twice as impressive.

Ergo, do not count me in among those that considered this season by McGahee to have been better than that by Henry last season. Henry's long run of 2002 was better than McGahee’s of this past season by 23 yards. The number of Henry’s runs over 20 in 2002 were about equal to those of McGahee this season as well with similar support from the passing game in ’02.

As well, while McGahee posted some rushing totals that impressed some, again, it should be fully understood that most of his yardage accrued came largely vs. teams with poor rushing defenses and late in games to the point where his contributions were more the beneficiary of the score as opposed to the reason for them. Of McGahee’s seven 100-yard games, six were against the 20th, 23rd, 27th, 29th, 31st, and 32nd ranked rushing defenses with the seventh coming vs. the Jets coming off their big Monday night win the week prior leaving them traveling to the Ralph two days shy on rest and prep. In spite of the paltry level of rushing defenses faced, McGahee’s yards-per-carry average in those 100-yard games was only 4.2 yards-per-carry. His next best game and only game above 80 yards rushing otherwise was 91 yards vs. 31st ranked Miami. Impressive? Not in my book. Many other RBs in this league that played those same teams ran equal to or much better yet minus all the hype and high draft picks required to attain them.

Now, to nip-it-in-the-bud in terms of McGahee, I have nothing but the highest of hopes for him next season. It is my biggest hope that he truly develops into a top-3 RB in the NFL. However, I simply did not see or agree with the statements surrounding his play on this season. He was not fast, was poor on third downs, could not “move the pile” with anything approaching regularity or consistency, and in spite of perceptions, was simply not good in short yardage situations to an extent that matched the hype. Yes, he has a very nice stiff-arm and picks up the blitz well however. But this alone will not propel a RB to greatness. There needs to be a very sizeable “step-up” from this season to next for all of the time and resources spent to have been worthwhile.

 

[jerryp]

Henry is a beast. He was not beat out by McGahee. The Bills offense sucked for the first half of the year, easily as bad as ours. No passing games at all, and an offensive line as messed up as ours. They felt the need to switch because the fan base was already pissed about not seeing McGahee play his rookie year and with the season seemingly "over" the fans wanted to see him play and the coaching staff gave in.

Then Buffalo went on a tear, obliterating opponents because

A) Everyone they played SUCKED.
B) Their defense gave them the ball in opponents territory a butt crazy amount of times. Of course your offense looks good when you start three drives a game, on average, in the opponents territory. Look at St Louis last year, the defense was better than the offense. Offense looked good because Rams led the league in times where possessions started in opponents territory.

So Buffalo goes on this tear and all of the sudden it's because of McGahee when in reality his offensive production wasn't much higher than Henry's. Obviously if you listen to the national media they are going to say it was McGahee, ALL THEY DO IS HYPE THE STARS.

In truth is was a combination of playing a long stretch of terrible offenses that their elite defense tore apart and the offensive line becoming just competent enough to protect Bledsoe for a passing game that led to those wins.

Look what happened when a real defense (resting most of its starters even) showed up the play the Bills. That "high powered" offense didn't look so good.

I say bring Henry in, dude would show the rest of the team what tough is and we'd absolutely punish our division that doesn't really have an overly dominant defensive line. If the Rams tried to tackle Henry like they tackled Saturday, it wouldn't matter how slow he his, they won't bring him down.

 

[HookemCards]

I just think a second is too high. Like I said, i'd seriously consider it for a 3rd, and definately do it for a 4th. I'm sure the Bills will do the deal for a third, especially if the coaching staff is convinced that McGahee is going to be the starter next year.

 

[RobbleRobble]

One other thing that we have going for us w/ regard to acquiring Henry is that the Bills want to trade Henry someplace far away outside of the division. Henry has stated that he would like to go to Miami, and Miami has said that they would love to have him. However, the Bills are leary about trading him within the division and facing him twice a year. I think the Bills' desire to send Henry to a place where they won't see him much can't be understated.

I honestly think that between taking a 4th round pick from us or a 3rd from Miami, the Bills would prefer to ship him here for the lesser pick. (Although no doubt they'll use whatever Miami is offering as leverage.)

 

[PDXChris]

My biggest beef with giving up a second rounder is that New England gave up a second rounder for Corey Dillion, a running back who ran for over a 1000 yeard in 6 of 7 season in Cinnci, on extreamly bad teams. By comparison, Henry is no Corey Dillion, so I say the highest I would give up for him is a 4th rounder and maybe a 7th rounder next year.

Here are Henry's numbers
YEAR TEAM G GS ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST
2001 BUF 13 12 213 729 3.4 25 4 34 5 2
2002 BUF 16 16 325 1438 4.4 34 13 72 11 8
2003 BUF 15 15 331 1356 4.1 64 10 76 7 3
2004 BUF 10 5 94 326 3.5 19 0 17 0 0
CAREER 54 -- 963 3849 4.0 64 27 199 23 13

Here are Dillon's numbers
YEAR TEAM G GS ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST
1997 CIN 16 6 233 1129 4.8 71 10 57 1 0
1998 CIN 15 15 262 1130 4.3 66 4 56 2 2
1999 CIN 15 15 263 1200 4.6 50 5 61 3 2
2000 CIN 16 16 315 1435 4.6 80 7 66 4 3
2001 CIN 16 16 340 1315 3.9 96 10 69 5 3
2002 CIN 16 16 314 1311 4.2 67 7 69 5 2
2003 CIN 13 11 138 541 3.9 39 2 24 0 0
2004 NE 15 14 345 1635 4.7 44 12 81 4 3
CAREER 122 -- 2210 9696 4.4 96 57 483 24 15

 

[john h]

i wouldn't waste a 2nd on travis henry, especially when there's so many running backs "better" than him in the draft this year, you have benson, caddilac, ronnie brown, jj arington, ciatrick fason, darren sproles im sure im forgetting some of them, but i like these guys alot better than henry, and you can get alot of them probably in the 2nd round and who will end up probably better than henry. i mean he was beat out by a guy whose leg was broken in half.

I think it comes down to what position of need can best be filled through FA. If Travis is a good RB then we do not need to waste a draft position for a RB. Also, are we going to take a RB with our #1 or #2? Will the #2 be as good as Travis Henry? What will Travis cost? This is no simple choice here and where the coach and staff show just how smart they are. Your first hurdle is to insure his health. What are the best position players in FA we can fill? Could be that it is RB or it could be on the OL. I have no idea. I hope we have had some sharp people working on this for some months by now as we have known for some time what our needs are. Green did a good job in FA and the draft last year. It may have been because he is very smart or just dumb luck. This year we will get some confirmation. One thing that has been reinforced in my mind after watching the playoff games is that you need a solid running game to take you to the finals. All the remaining teams have some horses carrying the ball and some good blockers including good blocking tight ends which I have added to my list of needs.

 

[EndZone]

If we trade for Henry, do we get in a bidding war for Matt Hasselbeck?

 

[Renz]

If we trade for Henry, do we get in a bidding war for Matt Hasselbeck?

IMO Hasselbeck will be re-signed by Seattle or franchised.

 

[PDXChris]

The only thing Matt Hasselbeck would do for Phoenix is give it a new Rogain spokeman replacing Matt "GRRRRRR" Williams

 

[Dback Jon]

I'd like Henry in the backfield, but a 2nd is too much. A third would be the most I'd give up.

 

[ajcardfan]

If we trade for Henry, do we get in a bidding war for Matt Hasselbeck?

I don't think we get into a major bidding war for any free agent. I think that is why we will see one, or two, trades this offseason. There is no doubt in my mind Mike Bidwill wants to be aggressive this year. I'm sure he has noticed what the Suns and D-Backs have done and how they were lauded for it. He really wants to sell tickets this year, and win, to get ready for the new stadium.

 

[ajcardfan]

I'd like Henry in the backfield, but a 2nd is too much. A third would be the most I'd give up.

A pick that is much closer to the middle of round two, instead of the beginning, is not exactly pure gold. If insisting on giving up only a third, instead of a second, made the trade fall through, it would be a major blunder by the front office. We'd be back to crossing our fingers on draft day just like two years ago, and we all know we got the guy we wanted that day. Not!

 

[DevonCardsFan]

2nd way too high Faulk went to the Rams for a 2nd. 3rd at most. Devon

 

[TheCardFan]

Henry has had a ton of fumbling problems also.

This is true and the only downside to Henry. Coming out of college...not fumbling was listed as a strength of his, so it must have started in the NFL.

Henry is a dominant back. He can run inside or use speed to get around the corner. He is a legit and proven back.

 

[TheCardFan]

I'd like Henry in the backfield, but a 2nd is too much. A third would be the most I'd give up.

He is definitely worth a #2 this year but the Bills are not in a position of power. He should be traded for a #3 this year or a conditional pick next year.

The only team that would pay more this year is the Dolphins and I don't see Buffalo trading him to a rival.

 

[joeshmo]

2nd way too high Faulk went to the Rams for a 2nd. 3rd at most. Devon

Faulk went to the Rams for a 3rd and 5th.

And that was a different set of circumstances that led to the price for Faulk to drop and Indy to except that deal.

You cant go by past trades of other players to find how much you should offer for a player now because the market changes and there are different circumstances involved.

For example I can give a trade example that is much newer to counter your Faulk trade theory. The Rams got a 3rd for Lamar Gordon and Henry is much better back so that trade would mean we should give a 2nd rounder for Henry.

 

[jerryp]

One other thing that we have going for us w/ regard to acquiring Henry is that the Bills want to trade Henry someplace far away outside of the division.

I don't see that as that big a deal. Henry is going to be a free agent after next year anyway. So the Bills can get him out of the division for two whole games if they trade him to us. After that, he's free to sign with Miami. And it's not likely that Miami's running back problems are just going to go away next season so they'll probably still be interested in him.

My biggest beef with giving up a second rounder is that New England gave up a second rounder for Corey Dillion, a running back who ran for over a 1000 yeard in 6 of 7 season in Cinnci, on extreamly bad teams.

You haven't been watching the NFL the past three seasons if you think Buffalo's been much better. Henry put up good numbers in the two years he was a full time starter not sharing time with other guys. Behind an offensive line as bad as the Bengals. No, he doesn't have Dillon's career numbers. Because he has half as many miles under his belt (4 years younger). So maybe Henry's youth cancels out Dillon's numbers and they are both worth a second rounder. I don't know. I haven't let ESPN 2k5 delude me into thinking I'm sort of competent general manager (although I am a draft guru in that game!).

I'd say if Henry is happy about a trade here, then a 2nd rounder might be worth it. If he's going to be discontent as a Cardinals and be looking towards being a free agent then I would not give up a 2nd rounder for him. Either way he'll play like a man possessed because he'll have the contract year plus pissed at former team combo working for him.

 

[joeshmo]

My biggest beef with giving up a second rounder is that New England gave up a second rounder for Corey Dillion, a running back who ran for over a 1000 yeard in 6 of 7 season in Cinnci, on extreamly bad teams. By comparison, Henry is no Corey Dillion, so I say the highest I would give up for him is a 4th rounder and maybe a 7th rounder next year.

Another bad example of using what another player got in years past. Different circumstances again.

Cincy was desperate to get a player that was a cancer in the locker room at the time off of their team. This was widely known accross the league.

Second NE was the only one who came calling with a 2nd rounder, everyone else was offering 3rd and 4th rounders, but NE didnt mind giving up a 2nd rounder becuase they already had 2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders losing one second rounder wasnt a big deal to them.

Finally not to mention there is a 3 year age and NFL pounding difference, and 3 years is a huge number for RB's. Dillon will be 30 next year.

 

[Russ Smith]

You can always make the trade contingent on Henry agreeing to a new deal too, we'll take him but he has to sign an extension. If he balks, that tells you he's probably looking to leave anyways, so you don't make the trade.

he's not my first choice, Jordan is, but Henry is probably easier to get.

 

[Russ Smith]

Miami Herald says Saban is trying to get Ricky Williams out of retirement, or Henry in a trade, but Buffalo wants a 2nd rounder and Miami doesn't have one.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

i wouldn't waste a 2nd on travis henry, especially when there's so many running backs "better" than him in the draft this year, you have benson, caddilac, ronnie brown, jj arington, ciatrick fason, darren sproles im sure im forgetting some of them, but i like these guys alot better than henry, and you can get alot of them probably in the 2nd round and who will end up probably better than henry. i mean he was beat out by a guy whose leg was broken in half.

he was beat out by a freak who happened to break his leg. mcgahee was prolly consensus #1 pick b4 the injury, came back freakishly fast from it, and then averaged over 100 yds/game once he had the starting role. it's not like henry lost the starting job to a scrub.

henry's got some mileage on him 'cuz of his running style, but he's still relatively young, has a nice combo of some elusiveness and power and he's a known commodity. everyone that likes all the draft-eligible backs are just HOPING they're better than henry. that said, i think a 2nd is too high, but i'd be willing to go there if the fa rbs price themselves ridiculously. i think we need to bring someone with a proven track record AND draft a someday replacement.

 

[joeshmo]

that said, i think a 2nd is too high, but i'd be willing to go there if the fa rbs price themselves ridiculously. i think we need to bring someone with a proven track record AND draft a someday replacement.

Thats my plan.

Henry and Speedser Walter Reyes in the 4th round.

 

[Syracusecards]

Thats my plan.

Henry and Speedser Walter Reyes in the 4th round.

That would give us one of the best RB committees in the NFL. Reyes is awesome. To be productive for 'Cuse when every team they played knew he was going to run it every first and second down is very impressive. He always had 8 in the box when he ran the ball. The predictability of the Cuse offense is why Pasqualoni was let go.