Nuggets, Jazz in a scrum for last playoff spot
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Monday, April 12
The NBA season has boiled down to this. Three days to determine a season, the fate of several coaches, the playoff aspirations of thousands of fans and the race for the coveted NBA Championship.
The Celtics locked up the last playoff berth in the East on Sunday night, despite winning a pitiful 35 games this season and losing their last four.
Out West, seven of the top eight spots are now locked down, with the Jazz and Nuggets tied for eighth place and the Blazers just one game out.
In addition for the race to make the playoffs, several teams in both conferences are working frantically to position themselves to be able to have some staying power in the postseason.
In the East, the Hornets, Bucks and Heat are in a three-team race to avoid the Pistons in Round 1.
Out West, very little is settled at this point. With the exception of the Rockets, who are locked into the seventh spot, everything is up for grabs.
Insider breaks down the playoff race as we head into the home stretch:
Jerry Sloan has the Jazz poised to earn the No. 8 seed in the West.
Who will round out the elite eight in the West? The Nuggets and Jazz are both at 42 wins with two games left. The Blazers are one game behind them at 41 wins and have the most difficult task. The only way Portland makes the playoffs at this point is by winning their last two games (at home against the Spurs and Lakers) and hoping the Nuggets and Jazz each lose both of their games. Since the Nuggets and Jazz both own tie breakers against the Blazers, it's the only way.
More likely, this will come down to a two-team battle between the Nuggets and Jazz. Denver has the toughest road to travel despite owning the tie breaker with the Jazz. The Nuggets play the Kings at home Monday, then travel to San Antonio on Wednesday for the last game of the season. They need to win at least one to survive. The problem is, both the Spurs and Kings are still playing for playoff position. Neither is on cruise control, despite having clinched playoff berths.
If the Nuggets lose both, Wednesday night's Jazz finale in Utah becomes huge. The Jazz get a huge break in the form of a home game against the Suns, the second-worst team in the West. Utah also plays Monday night at Minnesota, which probably will be a loss, so look for this to go to the wire on Wednesday. If the Jazz win, they're likely in. If they lose, the Nuggets will slide in by default -- unless, that is, the Blazers find a way to beat both the Spurs and Lakers this week.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Utah makes the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
Who will face the Pistons in Round 1? With all eight playoff spots secured in the East, we turn to a pretty nasty battle among three teams to avoid the dreaded No. 6 seed and the honor of playing the Pistons, the hottest team in the East right now.
Right now the Hornets are stuck in sixth, with the Heat fifth and the Bucks fourth. Milwaukee owns the tie breaker over the Heat; the Heat own the tie breaker over the Hornets; and the Hornets own the tie breaker over the Bucks. Got that?
Milwaukee has a one-game lead over both the Heat and Hornets. One more win (at Cleveland or at home vs. the Raptors) combined with a Hornets loss, and the Bucks secure the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
The fight for the fifth seed will be tougher. Miami and New Orleans have identical records, and the Heat own the tie breaker. However, Miami has a tougher schedule, playing at Boston on Monday and at home vs. the Nets on Wednesday. New Orleans plays the Knicks at home Monday and ends the season at Washington. The Hornets have their own worries though. They likely will be without Baron Davis and Darrell Armstrong for both games.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Bucks 4th; Heat 5th, Hornets 6th.
Tim Duncan and coach Gregg Popovich might have to settle for the No. 4 seed.
Who's No. 1 in the West? The Kings scored a huge win Sunday over the Lakers, putting them a game ahead of L.A. for the lead in the Pacific Division. Since the Kings also own the tie breaker with the Lakers, one more win will secure, at the very least, the division title and No. 2 seed.
Can they get get to No. 1? Minnesota is game ahead of both Sacramento and San Antonio right now with two games remaining (at home vs. the Jazz and at Memphis). One more win will knock the Kings out of contention for the top seed. However, the Wolves will need two wins, or a San Antonio loss, to hold off the Spurs, because San Antonio holds the tie breaker between the two teams.
The Kings have the easiest schedule, although both games are on the road -- at Denver and at Golden State. The Spurs really need to win both of their games (at Portland and home vs. the Nuggets) to keep from slipping to No. 3, and they could slip all the way to fourth if the Lakers win both of their games (at Golden State and at Portland). However, the Lakers have been a marginal team on the road this season.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Wolves 1st; Kings 2nd; Lakers 3rd; Spurs 4th.
The Grizzlies or the Mavs? At this point, the difference between the fifth and sixth seeds in the West is marginal, at best. Pick your poison: If things play out the way we predict, the No. 5 seed will face the defending champion Spurs, while the No. 6 seed gets the two-time world champion Lakers. Right now the Grizzlies and Mavs are locked in a dead heat for No. 5, with the Grizzlies owning the tie-breaker.
But this one will be decided Tuesday night, when the two meet head-to-head in Dallas. The Grizzlies are on a four-game win streak, and the Mavs have the best home record in the NBA so ... do the math. If the Mavs win, they take both a one-game lead over the Grizzlies and clinch the tie-breaker. That means there's no way Memphis can catch Dallas for the fifth seed and will move to No. 6.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Mavericks 5th; Grizzlies 6th.
Around the League
Tanking? The quest for a few more lottery balls: There was outrage among some readers to our story last month about teams tanking it the last month of the season. Since we wrote the story, Celtics head man Danny Ainge actually came out and said he wished his team would do it (they didn't), and the Cavs came out forcefully and said they wouldn't (they did).
The stakes were highest in the East, where the eighth playoff seed earns the 15th pick in the draft, while the last team out of the playoffs gets no worse than the 10th pick. In this day and age, the five-spot difference is huge.
Cleveland also had another incentive to go 2-11 over its last 13 games. Had the Cavs made the playoffs, they would've been forced to turn their first-round pick over to the Phoenix Suns as part of the 1998 trade that brought Wesley Person to Cleveland. That was a pretty big incentive to stay out of the playoffs one more year. We're not saying they tanked or anything, but 2-11 down the stretch? Wow.
Of course, the Cavs have nothing on the Clippers and Magic, both losers of 13 straight to end the season. The Magic haven't won a game since March 10, when they beat the lowly Wizards at home. The Clippers' last win came March 17 against the pitiful Suns. Overall the Clippers are just 2-21 since February 27.
The Raptors, not wanting to feel left out, have won just once in their last 10 games.
The result? Orlando absolutely will have the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. Even with two wins to end the season (what are the chances?), they'll finish with the worst record in the NBA and a 25-percent chance of winning the lottery.
The Clippers are currently tied for the fifth position in the draft (along with the Hawks) and have a 12-percent chance of winning the lottery. The Raptors have also moved up the lottery charts and currently are in line for the eighth pick in the draft and have a 4.4 percent chance of winning the lottery.
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Monday, April 12
The NBA season has boiled down to this. Three days to determine a season, the fate of several coaches, the playoff aspirations of thousands of fans and the race for the coveted NBA Championship.
The Celtics locked up the last playoff berth in the East on Sunday night, despite winning a pitiful 35 games this season and losing their last four.
Out West, seven of the top eight spots are now locked down, with the Jazz and Nuggets tied for eighth place and the Blazers just one game out.
In addition for the race to make the playoffs, several teams in both conferences are working frantically to position themselves to be able to have some staying power in the postseason.
In the East, the Hornets, Bucks and Heat are in a three-team race to avoid the Pistons in Round 1.
Out West, very little is settled at this point. With the exception of the Rockets, who are locked into the seventh spot, everything is up for grabs.
Insider breaks down the playoff race as we head into the home stretch:
Jerry Sloan has the Jazz poised to earn the No. 8 seed in the West.
Who will round out the elite eight in the West? The Nuggets and Jazz are both at 42 wins with two games left. The Blazers are one game behind them at 41 wins and have the most difficult task. The only way Portland makes the playoffs at this point is by winning their last two games (at home against the Spurs and Lakers) and hoping the Nuggets and Jazz each lose both of their games. Since the Nuggets and Jazz both own tie breakers against the Blazers, it's the only way.
More likely, this will come down to a two-team battle between the Nuggets and Jazz. Denver has the toughest road to travel despite owning the tie breaker with the Jazz. The Nuggets play the Kings at home Monday, then travel to San Antonio on Wednesday for the last game of the season. They need to win at least one to survive. The problem is, both the Spurs and Kings are still playing for playoff position. Neither is on cruise control, despite having clinched playoff berths.
If the Nuggets lose both, Wednesday night's Jazz finale in Utah becomes huge. The Jazz get a huge break in the form of a home game against the Suns, the second-worst team in the West. Utah also plays Monday night at Minnesota, which probably will be a loss, so look for this to go to the wire on Wednesday. If the Jazz win, they're likely in. If they lose, the Nuggets will slide in by default -- unless, that is, the Blazers find a way to beat both the Spurs and Lakers this week.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Utah makes the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
Who will face the Pistons in Round 1? With all eight playoff spots secured in the East, we turn to a pretty nasty battle among three teams to avoid the dreaded No. 6 seed and the honor of playing the Pistons, the hottest team in the East right now.
Right now the Hornets are stuck in sixth, with the Heat fifth and the Bucks fourth. Milwaukee owns the tie breaker over the Heat; the Heat own the tie breaker over the Hornets; and the Hornets own the tie breaker over the Bucks. Got that?
Milwaukee has a one-game lead over both the Heat and Hornets. One more win (at Cleveland or at home vs. the Raptors) combined with a Hornets loss, and the Bucks secure the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
The fight for the fifth seed will be tougher. Miami and New Orleans have identical records, and the Heat own the tie breaker. However, Miami has a tougher schedule, playing at Boston on Monday and at home vs. the Nets on Wednesday. New Orleans plays the Knicks at home Monday and ends the season at Washington. The Hornets have their own worries though. They likely will be without Baron Davis and Darrell Armstrong for both games.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Bucks 4th; Heat 5th, Hornets 6th.
Tim Duncan and coach Gregg Popovich might have to settle for the No. 4 seed.
Who's No. 1 in the West? The Kings scored a huge win Sunday over the Lakers, putting them a game ahead of L.A. for the lead in the Pacific Division. Since the Kings also own the tie breaker with the Lakers, one more win will secure, at the very least, the division title and No. 2 seed.
Can they get get to No. 1? Minnesota is game ahead of both Sacramento and San Antonio right now with two games remaining (at home vs. the Jazz and at Memphis). One more win will knock the Kings out of contention for the top seed. However, the Wolves will need two wins, or a San Antonio loss, to hold off the Spurs, because San Antonio holds the tie breaker between the two teams.
The Kings have the easiest schedule, although both games are on the road -- at Denver and at Golden State. The Spurs really need to win both of their games (at Portland and home vs. the Nuggets) to keep from slipping to No. 3, and they could slip all the way to fourth if the Lakers win both of their games (at Golden State and at Portland). However, the Lakers have been a marginal team on the road this season.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Wolves 1st; Kings 2nd; Lakers 3rd; Spurs 4th.
The Grizzlies or the Mavs? At this point, the difference between the fifth and sixth seeds in the West is marginal, at best. Pick your poison: If things play out the way we predict, the No. 5 seed will face the defending champion Spurs, while the No. 6 seed gets the two-time world champion Lakers. Right now the Grizzlies and Mavs are locked in a dead heat for No. 5, with the Grizzlies owning the tie-breaker.
But this one will be decided Tuesday night, when the two meet head-to-head in Dallas. The Grizzlies are on a four-game win streak, and the Mavs have the best home record in the NBA so ... do the math. If the Mavs win, they take both a one-game lead over the Grizzlies and clinch the tie-breaker. That means there's no way Memphis can catch Dallas for the fifth seed and will move to No. 6.
INSIDER PREDICTION: Mavericks 5th; Grizzlies 6th.
Around the League
Tanking? The quest for a few more lottery balls: There was outrage among some readers to our story last month about teams tanking it the last month of the season. Since we wrote the story, Celtics head man Danny Ainge actually came out and said he wished his team would do it (they didn't), and the Cavs came out forcefully and said they wouldn't (they did).
The stakes were highest in the East, where the eighth playoff seed earns the 15th pick in the draft, while the last team out of the playoffs gets no worse than the 10th pick. In this day and age, the five-spot difference is huge.
Cleveland also had another incentive to go 2-11 over its last 13 games. Had the Cavs made the playoffs, they would've been forced to turn their first-round pick over to the Phoenix Suns as part of the 1998 trade that brought Wesley Person to Cleveland. That was a pretty big incentive to stay out of the playoffs one more year. We're not saying they tanked or anything, but 2-11 down the stretch? Wow.
Of course, the Cavs have nothing on the Clippers and Magic, both losers of 13 straight to end the season. The Magic haven't won a game since March 10, when they beat the lowly Wizards at home. The Clippers' last win came March 17 against the pitiful Suns. Overall the Clippers are just 2-21 since February 27.
The Raptors, not wanting to feel left out, have won just once in their last 10 games.
The result? Orlando absolutely will have the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. Even with two wins to end the season (what are the chances?), they'll finish with the worst record in the NBA and a 25-percent chance of winning the lottery.
The Clippers are currently tied for the fifth position in the draft (along with the Hawks) and have a 12-percent chance of winning the lottery. The Raptors have also moved up the lottery charts and currently are in line for the eighth pick in the draft and have a 4.4 percent chance of winning the lottery.
out of the playoffs on Wednesday. 
