Are The Suns Better Prepared for the Spurs?

[George O'Brien]

No one really knows how all the changes with the Suns will work out. About the only thing that can be said for sure if that the Suns will be a lot tougher physically and have a lot more depth.

Will the Suns miss Joe Johnson? Sure they will. Will his absence kill their chances in the playoffs? Perhaps, but quite possibly not.

In the series against the Spurs, the Suns went 1-4. Overall, the Suns shot 49.6% from the field and 41.3% for three while averaging 104 ppg against one of the top defensive teams in the NBA.

Game 1 114-121 Suns shoot 48.8% but the Spurs shoot 51.7%
Game 2 108-111 Suns shoot 55.7% but the Spurs shoot 51.2%
Game 3 92-102 Suns shoot 44.2% but the Spurs shoot 46.1%
Game 4 111-106 Suns shoot 57.1% while the Spurs shoot 44.2%
Game 5 95-106 Suns shoot 43.7% while the Spurs shoot 46.%

What does this prove? The Suns shot well enough to win the two games without Joe, but their defense was horrible. Game 4 is remembered mostly for the Suns's blazing offense, but it was also their best defensive effort.

The other statistic that stands out in that series is that in five games, the Spurs had 30 more rebounds. The Spurs had 15 offensive rpg compared to 10.6 offensive rpg for the Suns. This meant that even when the Suns stopped the first shot, the Spurs could still score.

With the addition of Kurt Thomas and Brian Grant, I really doubt there will be the same kind defensive breakdowns and rebounding deficiency. The Spurs may still be the better team, but they may not find it so easy in the return bout.

 

[HooverDam]

I agree the addition of KT will help, not so sure about Grant. I hope he is healthy enough to contribute 10 minutes a game, but Im not counting on him too much. I wish we still had Steven Hunter (or someone like him), because after KT, there isnt much experienced depth at C. I still think D'Antoni will be using a lot of small/skill ball w/ Marion at PF

 

[Bada0Bing]

I would take Thomas over Hunter in a heartbeat. If you stick Thomas in there for 30 a game, you don’t have to worry about depth at the 5. Thomas/Amare have that spot covered. Grant will likely play 10-20 a game hitting the open 15ft shot and grabbing rebounds.

 

[HooverDam]

I would take Thomas over Hunter in a heartbeat.

So would I, I wasnt saying I think Hunter is better. Im saying I wish we had Hunter for some depth.

 

[George O'Brien]

It was simple - Hunter or Bell. Since Hunter was able to get an offer well above the LLE, once Bell was on board Hunter was not going to be a Sun.

What IS the story with Grant? The Sun's trainers are working on his tendentious and have a reputation for miracles following their success with McDyess. I have never heard of a play choosing a team because of their trainers, but he brought it up when interviewed.

In practical terms, the Suns can play most of the season without Grant if every stays healthy. Worst case would be the Suns would go to small ball for 15-20 minutes a game. Where Grant becomes crucial is in the playoffs where the game gets more physical and the Suns can't win just on their offense.

If even close to being healthy, Grant is a very good player. As recently as 2002-03, he averaged 10.2 rpg and is a career 49.1% shooter (he is described as having a great 18 foot jumper).

Grant's career rebounding numbers do not reflect how good he was on the boards. He has generally played with very good rebounders in Miami like Mourning and Mason or Odom and Haslim more recently. Blocking out is almost as important as getting the rebound, so his value was greater than his stats.

Will Grant to return to his former level? Hard to say. If he's even close, Grant will be vastly more valuable than Hunter. If he regresses to the level he was last year, then he won't be as valuable but still not bad for 10 minutes a game.

 

[elindholm]

The point, I think, is not that Hunter himself was so valuable -- he wasn't -- but that the Suns have no shot blockers on the roster now. Thomas and Grant might play great, but they won't be able to address that weakness. Any opposing coach is going to recognize that the Suns can't challenge penetration to the rim, and they will make that the focus of their attack.

 

[PhxGametime]

The point, I think, is not that Hunter himself was so valuable -- he wasn't -- but that the Suns have no shot blockers on the roster now. Thomas and Grant might play great, but they won't be able to address that weakness. Any opposing coach is going to recognize that the Suns can't challenge penetration to the rim, and they will make that the focus of their attack.

Thomas and Grant might help on rebounds but I'm not sure, the Suns are going to be a much better defensive Team... remember Bell might be a defender but so was JJ (the Team's best).

Thomas is more like AC Green (whoever on this board compared the two) than he is like Ben Wallace and he's going to be playing Center

IMO, he's going to be helping offensively more than defensively but rebounding won't hurt but remember that Bell is a weak rebounder... Q and JJ almost had as many rebounds collectively as KT and Bell did... but Q had better stats in every area over Bell but the 3 shooting PCT area's. Q is bigger, can post, is as good penetrator, as athletic, etc.

Can't REALLY compare a G/F to a F/C? I do think I like the KT pick-up more than then the Bell, although the Suns should've received a 1st Rounder, not the other way around

 

[elindholm]

Q and JJ almost had as many rebounds collectively as KT and Bell did...

13.6 vs. 11.2 is a fairly large difference, especially since Thomas and Bell got their rebounds in fewer minutes. But even so, it's a weird point to make. The Suns got plenty of rebounds last season; it was letting their opponents feast off the offensive glass that killed them. I don't know much about Bell's rebounding, but Thomas is a very good, fundamentally sound defensive rebounder. It's silly to be skeptical that the Suns' rebounding will improve. There are no guarantees, but this is about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

 

[Joe Mama]

Q and JJ almost had as many rebounds collectively as KT and Bell did...

13.6 vs. 11.2 is a fairly large difference, especially since Thomas and Bell got their rebounds in fewer minutes. But even so, it's a weird point to make. The Suns got plenty of rebounds last season; it was letting their opponents feast off the offensive glass that killed them. I don't know much about Bell's rebounding, but Thomas is a very good, fundamentally sound defensive rebounder. It's silly to be skeptical that the Suns' rebounding will improve. There are no guarantees, but this is about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

there were also more rebounding opportunities there for JJ and Q. Thomas and Bell played on two of the slower (Utah was probably the slowest) teams in the NBA.

Joe

 

[PhxGametime]

KT had a career year in rebounding (2.8 higher than average) and I doubt he puts up those kind of numbers again, with 2 decent rebounders alongside... KT was probably on the smallest Team and Stoudemire could've probably averaged 11 rebounds on that Team.


I did say they might help on boards but (meaning KT and Grant) but every Team is going to be attacking Stoudemire to get him out of game, now that IMO - he is favorite to win MVP and with lack of shot-blockers and my concern is defense, where KT and Grant aren't great shot-blockers - I expect the rebounds to go up, because KT is a big and a better reobunder... but just because you're strong and burly doesn't mean, you're a great defender... I expect more fouls on defense and I expect if KT and Bell are going to be playing dirty that Teams will pick on Nash and Stoudemire more, Marion even...

Has anybody watched gamefilm of those two (I'm not sure, if I'm one of few who collect tapes)? Am I the only one concerned about the tough, dirty play? I hate that kind of play, let alone on the Team I watch... I've seen both put some guys on ground or swing elbows but I have yet to see either shut down people...


I really like KT on offensive end but everybody knows he's a step down from JJ, although he was Traded for Q but I like comparing Q and Bell more to each other... neither do I see KT and Bell stepping up offensively though (upside is usually not for guys as old as ME), but both can shoot, I'm expecting their averages, which aren't bad but to lose 1 decent Draft Pick/and Steven Hunter (who at 1 point was the premiere SB per 48), add 1 rebounder, gain a defender who's tougher but not exactly a better stopper than JJ... and then to lose everything JJ, Q, and Hunter added to Team, I feel I have a right to be worried.


I personally would rather have JJ, Q, and Hunter over those 2 - because the Team could've easily got all the other pieces via minimum anyways after losing many Free Agents... but maybe I could accept the KT Trade when it was KT and Pick but I could even forgive the Team for adding 1st Rounder because maybe they felt that was missing piece but WHY did they sign Bell? I knew JJ was gone right there, management knows what they're doing when stuff like that happens... I blame McDyess for leaving and still do but management blew the JJ sweepstakes... and I'm still pissed.


After the Suns win Championship everybody will be happy but what happened to the Dynasty (sp) that this Team could've been winning for 3-6 years?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Actually Amare and Shawn moving to their natural positions frees them up to be weak side shot blockers.

 

[George O'Brien]

Actually Amare and Shawn moving to their natural positions frees them up to be weak side shot blockers.

That is a great point. I expect the Suns will get a lot of blocked shots because Amare is a not really a good strong side shot blocker but a great weak side shot blocker. Just ask Dirk.

BbaLL_31 is probably right in saying that KT's rebounding stats won't be as impressive as they were in New York, but this is not about stats. He is very good at blocking out and with Amare and Marion available, the overall rebounding differential should improve substantially.

The Suns were actually the top rebounding teams in the NBA, with 44 rpg. Unfortunately, what matters is that they had a -2.0 rebounding differential - 5th worst in the NBA. To make matters worse, this included giving up an average of 15 offensive rebounds a game.

 

[elindholm]

Actually Amare and Shawn moving to their natural positions frees them up to be weak side shot blockers.

That's the hope. I think it's realistic for Stoudemire, if he can improve his defensive court awareness by about 400%, which is possible given his talent level. I've never seen Marion has a weak-side shot blocker, however. Of course, last season he was generally stuck defending in the post and getting shoved under the basket, so he didn't have the opportunities. But my impression is that the overwhelming majority of his blocks, even before last season, have come in on-ball situations where he simply out-quicks and out-leaps his man. (Well, those, plus mad scrambles under the rim.)

 

[George O'Brien]

Actually Amare and Shawn moving to their natural positions frees them up to be weak side shot blockers.

That's the hope. I think it's realistic for Stoudemire, if he can improve his defensive court awareness by about 400%, which is possible given his talent level. I've never seen Marion has a weak-side shot blocker, however. Of course, last season he was generally stuck defending in the post and getting shoved under the basket, so he didn't have the opportunities. But my impression is that the overwhelming majority of his blocks, even before last season, have come in on-ball situations where he simply out-quicks and out-leaps his man. (Well, those, plus mad scrambles under the rim.)

I can't remember which game, but I remember once when Amare had something like 10 blocks. He had 5 blocks a couple of times in the playoffs.

 

[PhxGametime]

Well I'm not going to be bitter for a whole day, because the Suns have Amare Stoudemire and nobody else does...


Be back tomorrow


How things have changed, last year, I started the year as biggest homer and was called out for it many times, and even as being biggest homer in all of Sports (I believe)... too bad I don't know, who said it?


I do believe the Suns will win it all but I'll leave it at that...

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I can't remember which game, but I remember once when Amare had something like 10 blocks. He had 5 blocks a couple of times in the playoffs.

The 10 blocks was a couple years ago. It was really impressive, of course he didn't get a tripple double because he didn't want to rebound that night.

 

[Silverbullet]

I think this is Amares year to show off his defensive abilities. I can see him being a very good shotblocker with the addition of KT to help with the defesive assignments. I do believe we will be a better def reb team which will cut down teams second chance attempts. I realy like the additions with Bell, Jones, and Diaw which more than makes up for JJs D and Qs lack of D and speed. Marion back to the 3 is realy going to be exciting to watch when we go with big lineups. I see us being better prepared for the Spurs.

 

[George O'Brien]

I think this is Amares year to show off his defensive abilities. I can see him being a very good shotblocker with the addition of KT to help with the defesive assignments. I do believe we will be a better def reb team which will cut down teams second chance attempts. I realy like the additions with Bell, Jones, and Diaw which more than makes up for JJs D and Qs lack of D and speed. Marion back to the 3 is realy going to be exciting to watch when we go with big lineups. I see us being better prepared for the Spurs.

Let's hope. (By the way, welcome aboard)

Bringing in new people is always a chancy operation. The number of players who played well on former teams and terrible on their new teams is endless; but there is also a long list of players who played better on new teams.

I think the new guys will fit in well, but it remains to be seen. But in any case, I don't think the Suns are going to slow down as long as D'Antoni is coach.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Bringing in new people is always a chancy operation. The number of players who played well on former teams and terrible on their new teams is endless; but there is also a long list of players who played better on new teams.

Are you just trying to say that there is no real way to predict how players will fit in?

Or is this just a pointless paragraph?

 

[George O'Brien]

Are you just trying to say that there is no real way to predict how players will fit in?

Or is this just a pointless paragraph?

There is no what to KNOW for sure, but in general I'm very encouraged. However, the stuff BBALL31 brings up is at least worth considering. He's seen these guys a number of times and the number of times I've seen them is limited. That's why I have more of a "wait and see" attitude than I might if I had seen these guys more.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I was more just laughing at the sentence, I am pretty sure I got the meaning

 

[Errntknght]

I'm quite concerned about what D'Antoni is going to do with this team, as well as the change in the players. I was really bothered in his recent quote that he needed to replace 1000 3pt shots lost in the form of Q and JJ. That indicates that he is going into this season with the wrong mindset - what killed the Suns more than anything in the playoffs is that Dallas and SA shut down our 3pt shooters. That was masked by the fact that Nash and Amare scored up a storm - something that is hard to rely on. If he comes back with that same simple minded offense built around 3pt shooting the Suns will not have gained anything on the Spurs on our end of the floor - most likely we will have lost ground and perhaps quite a bit.

On the defensive end the number of second chance shots we give up will probably drop but don't forget that Hunter played relatively well against the Spurs and he did give us some shot blocking presence. Here again I'm worried about the coaching. For openers, D'Antoni's preference is to not slow the game down by contesting driving players and thereby risking foul shots and the horror of all horrors - the and-1. Can somebody with this mindset put together a decent defense? Secondly, the only addition to the coaching braintrust is a HS coach - D'Antoni's older brother.

 

[George O'Brien]

I'm quite concerned about what D'Antoni is going to do with this team, as well as the change in the players. I was really bothered in his recent quote that he needed to replace 1000 3pt shots lost in the form of Q and JJ. That indicates that he is going into this season with the wrong mindset - what killed the Suns more than anything in the playoffs is that Dallas and SA shut down our 3pt shooters. That was masked by the fact that Nash and Amare scored up a storm - something that is hard to rely on. If he comes back with that same simple minded offense built around 3pt shooting the Suns will not have gained anything on the Spurs on our end of the floor - most likely we will have lost ground and perhaps quite a bit.

On the defensive end the number of second chance shots we give up will probably drop but don't forget that Hunter played relatively well against the Spurs and he did give us some shot blocking presence. Here again I'm worried about the coaching. For openers, D'Antoni's preference is to not slow the game down by contesting driving players and thereby risking foul shots and the horror of all horrors - the and-1. Can somebody with this mindset put together a decent defense? Secondly, the only addition to the coaching braintrust is a HS coach - D'Antoni's older brother.

You really don't like Suns coaches do you?

I'm not really sure what the Suns will look like this season because I'm not sure how much of last season's style was due to plan and how much was due to necessity.

The use of three point shooting last season was in two parts. The first part was the use of open three point shots off the break in a very European style. NBA teams are trained to defend the break inside - out which is a key reason why the USA team had so much trouble with the Europeans in the Olympics. I would doubt this will change that much as long as it works.

The use of the three point shot from kick outs in the half court offense was as much about keeping teams from packing the paint to stop Amare. The Spurs were really the only team to try to press the three point shooters and even then the Suns shot 41.3% for three led by Jim Jackson who shot 11 of 19.

As for D'Antoni's reluctance to foul guys attacking the basket, this season will tell. Last season the Suns did not have the depth. This year we'll see if he sticks with the "no fouls" strategy.

 

[fordronken]

The one thing that Amare said this offseason that bugged me was something like "you can't really work on defense by yourself, so I'll have to wait until everyone else is here to do it". I remember reading an article about Kobe during his first couple years in the league. He would study defensive game tape, then go into the gym by himself and set up chairs all over the court to figure out different defensive schemes. Of course, he may have just been working on his offense too, so it could be somewhat irrelevant.

Regardless, will anybody be able to guard Amare next year if he's been having two-a-day offensive basketball workouts all summer?

 

[George O'Brien]

The one thing that Amare said this offseason that bugged me was something like "you can't really work on defense by yourself, so I'll have to wait until everyone else is here to do it". I remember reading an article about Kobe during his first couple years in the league. He would study defensive game tape, then go into the gym by himself and set up chairs all over the court to figure out different defensive schemes. Of course, he may have just been working on his offense too, so it could be somewhat irrelevant.

Regardless, will anybody be able to guard Amare next year if he's been having two-a-day offensive basketball workouts all summer?

My guess is that he's still working on getting that mid range jumper down cold and develop a short hook. but the really exciting part is that he working on developing his left hand. Last season he was all but impossible to stop even though everyone knew he'd go right. Guys would totally overplay him right and he'd still beat them. If he can fake right and go left and score with his left hand, he will force everyone including the Spurs to double him or else he'll score 60 a night.

I would also expect him to develop the reverse layup to a greater degree. Yao game him trouble last season, but with a left hand and a reverse layup that would go away.