ASU Football 2021!

[Folster]

The more I think about conference realignment, the more I think we have to follow the money and that means the TV contracts. I think we have to consider what will ultimately be two conferences, ESPN and Fox. ESPN has rights to the ACC and SEC and a split of the crumbling BIG 12 with Fox. Fox has the BIG 10 and a share of the Big 12 while the PAC 12 has been floundering with its in-house media company.

With the Big 12 falling apart, I think the PAC 12, BIG 10, and ACC consume its remaining desirable members. Ultimately the Big 10 and Pac 12 will have to merge with a fat Fox contract to combat the behemoth that is the SEC and then it makes sense for the SEC and the ACC to align with their ESPN contracts.

Then you have Fox's BIG PAC with it's Rose Bowl tradition still intact and ESPN's SEACC.

 

[TJ]

Posted this in the PAC 12 thread. I was hoping to get more conversation.

With OU and Texas exploring a jump to the SEC, the PAC 12 needs to be ready to make a move to scoop up teams.

Assuming OU and Texas leave, the Big 12 will likely collapse. How will the rest of the dominos fall? I haven't taken into account any academic considerations in my thoughts.

WV: natural fit with the ACC.
Kansas and Iowa State: natural fits for the B1G.
K state: They'll be lucky to tag along with Kansas, but could get left out if they can't hitch a ride to the ACC or PAC 12.
Texas Tech, OSU, Baylor, and TCU: I think the Texas schools try stick together with OSU and the PAC 12 makes the most sense as a landing spot, but I don't think the PAC 12 is keen on private religious schools like Baylor and TCU joining. But the PAC 12 may be forced to swallow that pill.

With a PAC 16, you get two pretty clean divisions. The original PAC 8 teams and a South Western division comprised of Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Texas Tech, OSU, Baylor, and TCU.

Future expansion within the rapidly growing region could come from UNM, UNLV, Nevada, BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, and SDSU to name a few. But these schools all have differing issues like academics, religion, undesirable TV markets, or uncompetitive football programs.

BYU couldn’t come for the same reasons you’d mentioned for Baylor and TCU (though i think TCU would be welcomed to the PAC). And none of the MWC teams are desirable. I know the conference wants teams with doctorate programs, which rules out SDSU (haven’t paid attention to other schools, but their athletics don’t move the meter).

 

[Folster]

BYU couldn’t come for the same reasons you’d mentioned for Baylor and TCU (though i think TCU would be welcomed to the PAC). And none of the MWC teams are desirable. I know the conference wants teams with doctorate programs, which rules out SDSU (haven’t paid attention to other schools, but their athletics don’t move the meter).

It's hard to believe that the state of New Mexico can't get at least one elite level university. That would be an obvious choice for TV market expansion. Nevada too.

 

[Folster]

Another outside possibility that would be a worse case for Arizona schools would be the Big 10 poaching the most desirable PAC 12 schools of USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. I could see Arizona, Utah, and Colorado being options as the are also AAU members which is a Big 10 prerequisite.

The remaining PAC 12 teams would be forced to cobble together a conference with the BIG 12 leftovers and the Mountain West.

 

[TJ]

USC has contemplated going independent for some time and I’m wondering if this change in landscape would push them over the edge

 

[Azlen]

I think you have to consider that some of the Big12 leftovers aren't going to be highly desirable to any of the power conferences and may have to end up going to the AAC or another group of 5 conference. Also seen speculation that the Big 10 may try to raid some Pac12 teams and create their own super conference. I don't think anyone knows where things are going to fall quite yet but with NIL, the whole landscape of college football is changing and will never be the same again. There's going to be a much bigger separation between the haves and have nots. You may end up with a super conference that isn't even regulated by the NCAA and they only play within their group.

 

[Mainstreet]

Another outside possibility that would be a worse case for Arizona schools would be the Big 10 poaching the most desirable PAC 12 schools of USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. I could see Arizona, Utah, and Colorado being options as the are also AAU members which is a Big 10 prerequisite.

The remaining PAC 12 teams would be forced to cobble together a conference with the BIG 12 leftovers and the Mountain West.

Nevada will be a future plum. Maybe Boise State and UNLV.

 

[AZCB34]

I think you have to consider that some of the Big12 leftovers aren't going to be highly desirable to any of the power conferences and may have to end up going to the AAC or another group of 5 conference. Also seen speculation that the Big 10 may try to raid some Pac12 teams and create their own super conference. I don't think anyone knows where things are going to fall quite yet but with NIL, the whole landscape of college football is changing and will never be the same again. There's going to be a much bigger separation between the haves and have nots. You may end up with a super conference that isn't even regulated by the NCAA and they only play within their group.

None of the current leftovers are desirable. Tech? Baylor? TCU? OSU? None of those make the conference better. At least two off these will end up in the PAC but I don't think it moves the needle.

 

[AZCB34]

Nevada will be a future plum. Maybe Boise State and UNLV.

UNLV brings nothing to the table

 

[AZCB34]

USC has contemplated going independent for some time and I’m wondering if this change in landscape would push them over the edge

I wonder if that is really in their best interest. I feel like this next cycle of realignment may be the thing that finally forces Notre Dame to finally move to ACC

 

[Mainstreet]

UNLV brings nothing to the table

That's why I worded it a "future plum."

 

[Folster]

Yay or nay?

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I think this makes the most sense assuming we could get KU. I wouldn't want K-State by themselves.

The more I think about Baylor and TCU, the more I think their small student bodies and private/religious status could be a deal breaker.

If the PAC 12 wanted another TX school. Houston makes a lot of sense as they have the 3rd largest enrollment in TX and a highly desirable TV market. They've been relevant athletically in the past, but got left behind with the Big 12 formation. I imagine A&M has been instrumental in keeping them down since they are in such close proximity to each other.

 

[Folster]

It's ironic that football media rights is the driving force of these realignments as it's not hard to imagine football not being around as we know it in several decades. But there is money to be made now.

 

[TJ]

It's hard to believe that the state of New Mexico can't get at least one elite level university. That would be an obvious choice for TV market expansion. Nevada too.

The state of New Mexico rarely has any talent of substance come out of the state, and when it does, it is usually gobbled up by a Texas school. Not sure about ASU, but cant remember the last recruit that UofA got from there. I know UofA was in line to get a 4-star RB from New Mexico a few years ago who chose Michigan.

UNLV would be doing better if everyone else didn't pillage and plunder Desert Pines and Bishop Gorman.

It's easier for schools like SDSU to be really good since they're in recruiting fertile grounds and the weather and scenery are amazing. UNM has been a*s for a while (serves them right for ******* off Lute Olson) and NMSU is a former WAC school that doesn't get any attention (although their basketball team would do damage in the PAC).

 

[TJ]

I think you have to consider that some of the Big12 leftovers aren't going to be highly desirable to any of the power conferences and may have to end up going to the AAC or another group of 5 conference. Also seen speculation that the Big 10 may try to raid some Pac12 teams and create their own super conference. I don't think anyone knows where things are going to fall quite yet but with NIL, the whole landscape of college football is changing and will never be the same again. There's going to be a much bigger separation between the haves and have nots. You may end up with a super conference that isn't even regulated by the NCAA and they only play within their group.

What Big-12 school would consider going to a G5 conference?

 

[Folster]

What Big-12 school would consider going to a G5 conference?

None will have G5 aspirations, but Power 5 may not be an option for a number of the leftover schools. There may be more programs hung out to dry if any other conference gets plundered, particularly the PAC 12.

 

[TJ]

None will have G5 aspirations, but Power 5 may not be an option for a number of the leftover schools. There may be more programs hung out to dry if any other conference gets plundered, particularly the PAC 12.

Remaining B12 schools after notable departures:

OkSt (money galore and good football program)
TTU (popular football team, rising hoops program)
K-State (solid all-around)
Kansas (hoops alone carries the school)
TCU (good football backing)
Baylor (solid all around and defending national champs in hoops)
ISU (solid all around)
WVU (geographically displaced, but one of those most consistent, well-rounded programs in the conference).


All of these schools have enough prestige to be P5 schools moving forward and have done nothing to earn a demotion. They’ll likely be gobbled up by the B1G, PAC, or ACC, but the AAC is a huge drop down.

 

[Folster]

Remaining B12 schools after notable departures:

OkSt (money galore and good football program)
TTU (popular football team, rising hoops program)
K-State (solid all-around)
Kansas (hoops alone carries the school)
TCU (good football backing)
Baylor (solid all around and defending national champs in hoops)
ISU (solid all around)
WVU (geographically displaced, but one of those most consistent, well-rounded programs in the conference).


All of these schools have enough prestige to be P5 schools moving forward and have done nothing to earn a demotion. They’ll likely be gobbled up by the B1G, PAC, or ACC, but the AAC is a huge drop down.

Both the PAC 12 and B1G have qualifiers beyond athletics that many BIG 12 leftovers don't meet.

For instance, the B1G requires schools to be AAU members (Nebraska lost this membership after joining but is working at getting it back). Only Kansas and Iowa State meet that requirement.

The PAC 12 prefers AAU but it has not been a requirement for all entrants. They do require members to be Tier 1 research schools. Neither Baylor nor TCU are Tier 1. They are also private, religious, and have small enrollment numbers. Religious schools have been a deal breaker in the past especially with the core California schools.

After a lot of thought, I think if the PAC 12 expands from the rubble of the BIG 12, they'd prefer OSU, K-State, Texas Tech, and would call up Houston from the AAC to pair with TT before considering Baylor or TCU.

I understand the recent athletic success of Baylor and TCU is hard to overlook, but, the PAC 12 and B1G have been pretty consistent with their standards. That leaves the ACC as the only P5 option for Baylor and TCU.

 

[Mainstreet]

Two more assistant coaches at Arizona State put on paid administrative leave.

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[jf-08]

Ugh

 

[TJ]

I could see AP get fired at the end of the year and Herm “retire.” Anderson shouldn’t survive this, but Crow is a hypocritical idiot and has gone against his zero tolerance policy before w/ athletics

 

[GatorAZ]

Bobby Wade is a coach there too?!?!!

 

[Mainstreet]

If it wasn't for all those with clean hands I'd say punish ASU already. This stuff never ends good.

It just goes on and on... seemingly forever.

 

[TJ]

Bobby Wade is a coach there too?!?!!

Better question: Does he still talk in the third person?

 

[AZCB34]

If it wasn't for all those with clean hands I'd say punish ASU already. This stuff never ends good.

It just goes on and on... seemingly forever.

Do rush to punish. Also don't rush to acquit. I say let the process play out. I suspect some changes will be made after this season.