Ayton's Ceiling

[Chaplin]

My thought is that Ayton is still the outright #1, I just think Doncic is better than what a lot of people here are speculating. After all, it IS speculation after all.

 

[GatorAZ]

I didn't watch the whole video but most of those blocks in teh first minute are against guys he's 7-8 inches taller than. People drove at him and scored all year, so I suspect we had a little baseball assists situation going on where guys who don't have great arms get assists because everyone challenges their arm. As the year went on people were consciously targeting Ayton, he got some blocks and his per 100 stats were pretty decent, but it was quite surprising how often smaller guys went right at him and scored. I saw him play more than Bamba but with Bamba it was much less common to see guys challenge him, the Carters and Bagleys yes, but smaller guys just figured out quickly it wasn't a good idea to go at Bamba, I didn't see that with Ayton.

I just think he has a timing thing, I think it's why he lost so many jump balls despite being able to touch the top of teh glass. Terrific offensive player. In the NBA with everyone going smaller his ability to move his feet will actually be a good asset on defense. But yeah if he doesn't get better at rim protection it'll be a problem. NBA guys are MUCH better at playing against size, and drawing fouls too.

You gotta pick him first he's a physical freak that's still learning the game.

Yeah his reaction time is my biggest concern. Offensively he is twitchy and decisive but like you said there’s weird instances where he just looks a step behind everyone else. Of course when you put a poor defender on a team with Ristic, PJC, Trier and Alkins it is going to be a train wreck. Same was true for Bagley.

I just don’t see how the Suns can pass on that kind of specimen who seems to be coachable. He transformed his frame in a few months after never lifting weights so he literally could look like David Robinson in a couple years. I just hope he wasn’t sharing supplements with Allonzo.

 

[SirStefan32]

I appreciate the first part, but the second part of the statement seems really out of whack considering how much you malign others for saying the same thing about Doncic, questioning his ability on that end.

Doubt if he can guard a broken chair? That seems like a big bowl of hyperbole to me, especially since you've admitted you've only watched a couple games of Ayton.

Sure, it's a hyperbole. Sure, I've admitted to only watching a handful of games of Ayton. I have never claimed Doncic to be a good defender, simply not as bad as people claim he is (People who have never actually seen him play.)

I think you'd understand me better if you keep these two things in mind:
1. I do not claim to be an expert. I express my opinions, and I do not think that I am right more often than most people here. I understand that we are all amateurs here, and none of us really have some deep insight. I really think that you don't get that. You think I am like Slin and think that I have some crazy deep understanding of talent evaluation.
2. I agree with you that Ayton should be the first pick. I think you are so defensive about Ayton that you read way too much into other people's posts if they question anything related to your guy. I, on the other hand, try to be objective. I called out the narrative of Doncic being a great shooter long before anyone else did. I have repeatedly brough up the concern of that dribble drive step-back translating from Europe to the NBA. It's OK to be honest about the flaws players you like have.

 

[SirStefan32]

My thought is that Ayton is still the outright #1, I just think Doncic is better than what a lot of people here are speculating. After all, it IS speculation after all.

That's exactly where I stand as well.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Seems like that can apply to Doncic as well.

That is fair.

 

[JCSunsfan]

It could but the question for me here always is does Doncic have the actual athletic tools to become a good or great defender. I’m skeptical just because of the elite level athletes in the league and I don’t see that level of athleticism in Doncic. That said, techniques and smarts go a long way so I don’t completely rule it out. But even basketball IQ can only take you so far.

With Ayton, we know he has those physical tools... but the question remains if he can be taught how to properly use them.

Doncic has the tools to be a better defender (and similar in type) than young Jared Dudley. Remember when he could defend the 2-4 positions just with smarts hustle and strength. I could easily see Doncic doing that just from watching how he plays. The kid works hard on both ends of the floor. He doesn't take plays off on either end. He will have some difficulty with some of the faster smaller pg's. But if you have a versatile defender on your team that can cover those players (Shawn Marion type or maybe even Josh Jackson) it could work. The team would need a small fast defensive specialist to come off the bench. There are actually a couple of those in this draft.

 

[BC867]

The kid works hard on both ends of the floor. He doesn't take plays off on either end. He will have some difficulty with some of the faster smaller pg's. But if you have a versatile defender on your team that can cover those players (Shawn Marion type or maybe even Josh Jackson) it could work. The team would need a small fast defensive specialist to come off the bench. There are actually a couple of those in this draft.

Are you proposing that we choose Doncic as our starting Point Guard to replace him with a bench player to guard prototype Point Guards?

When? Five minutes into the game? To play catch up during the last six minutes of each quarter, including the 4th?

If Doncic cannot guard Point Guards, we do not need him as another Small Forward.

 

[SirStefan32]

Are you proposing that we choose Doncic as our starting Point Guard to replace him with a bench player to guard prototype Point Guards?

When? Five minutes into the game? To play catch up during the last six minutes of each quarter, including the 4th?

If Doncic cannot guard Point Guards, we do not need him as another Small Forward.

Good Lord, smaller point guards can't guard him either. Do you honestly think Lillard is going to be able to guard him in the low post? You add a prototypical PG to have some additional versatility. We get it, you don't like Doncic. We all get it.

 

[BC867]

Good Lord, smaller point guards can't guard him either. Do you honestly think Lillard is going to be able to guard him in the low post? You add a prototypical PG to have some additional versatility. We get it, you don't like Doncic. We all get it.

I don't like what I've read about Doncic's limitations.

And I was reacting to JC's proposal, "He will have some difficulty with some of the faster smaller pg's. But if you have a versatile defender on your team that can cover those players (Shawn Marion type or maybe even Josh Jackson) it could work. The team would need a small fast defensive specialist to come off the bench. There are actually a couple of those in this draft.", by asking how that would work.

I guess an alternative is that Doncic would play PG on offense and Wing on defense, with that Wing playing Point Guard on defense. Is that any different than the Doncic the Wing, playing Point Guard on defense?

If it going to be someone off the bench, then how often do you have to bench Doncic?

 

[SirStefan32]

EVERYBODY has trouble with smaller, quicker point guards. My God, Steve Nash couldn't guard anyone, and he was a two-time MVP. Steph Curry is an awful defender. Kyrie can't guard a chair. Not being able to guard guys like Westbrook and Lilard is not an issue unique to Luka. I am fine with people not liking him, but some of this stuff is just silly.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am not suggesting that we draft Doncic. I am just showing how Doncic could work as a pg in the NBA. Its been done before. Magic had problems defending smaller pg's, Ben Simmons is in the same boat right now. The conventional wisdom is you play what you can guard, but players switch all the time. Its just not really true.

 

[BC867]

I am not suggesting that we draft Doncic. I am just showing how Doncic could work as a pg in the NBA. Its been done before. Magic had problems defending smaller pg's, Ben Simmons is in the same boat right now. The conventional wisdom is you play what you can guard, but players switch all the time. Its just not really true.

Magic is not an example. He was the size of a Power Forward with the skill of a Point Guard.

I'm asking you again which player do you propose switching? Another Wing? That won't solve anything. Doncic is a Wing.

It would have to be a smaller Point Guard off the bench. So Doncic winds up on the bench throughout the game? That doesn't sound like a high draft pick.

 

[HeHasRosen]

I am not suggesting that we draft Doncic. I am just showing how Doncic could work as a pg in the NBA. Its been done before. Magic had problems defending smaller pg's, Ben Simmons is in the same boat right now. The conventional wisdom is you play what you can guard, but players switch all the time. Its just not really true.

When will people accept (not putting you on blast but you said it last) that Doncic is not a PG. He is a 3. And if he is to succeed it should be at 3. He matches up well with small forwards. Every credible scout and basketball personality says this

 

[Hoop Head]

When will people accept (not putting you on blast but you said it last) that Doncic is not a PG. He is a 3. And if he is to succeed it should be at 3. He matches up well with small forwards. Every credible scout and basketball personality says this

That isn't going to happen until he debuts, or he says it himself. If Ben Simmons didn't play PG for the Sixers this year I think it would help people see things differently but with them having success with Simmons as their PG that makes people think Doncic can do the same.

He'll play PG in spurts, maybe backup PG like Booker did a little after we acquired Payton and moved him over to PG when Payton sat, but that's the most I can see happening. Even that will be limited on how successful the team is with him in that role.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Magic is not an example. He was the size of a Power Forward with the skill of a Point Guard.

I'm asking you again which player do you propose switching? Another Wing? That won't solve anything. Doncic is a Wing.

It would have to be a smaller Point Guard off the bench. So Doncic winds up on the bench throughout the game? That doesn't sound like a high draft pick.

Magic is an example. Good grief don’t you read! Magic did not have the speed of a point guard. He switched off with other players. If you read my original i suggested who could switch and how.

He will be used almost exactly like Ben Simmons. He is already playing point guard about half the time for Real Madrid, which probably the best non NBA club team in the world. So it’s not even speculation.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

When will people accept (not putting you on blast but you said it last) that Doncic is not a PG. He is a 3. And if he is to succeed it should be at 3. He matches up well with small forwards. Every credible scout and basketball personality says this

I love when people use absolutes like “every” when they actually have no idea of what they are actually saying is correct. Diluted everything else they include in the post.

Words mean something people.

 

[Chaplin]

I’m starting to think we are an anomaly. I would say a good 80% of the “knowledgeable” Suns fans not on this board are all for Doncic at #1.

A lot of them are making their pick on the assumption we are going to get Clint Capela, which is horribly naive.

 

[SirStefan32]

Maybe they have more balls than I do. I love Doncic, but I just wouldn't have the balls to pass on Ayton at #1.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Maybe they have more balls than I do. I love Doncic, but I just wouldn't have the balls to pass on Ayton at #1.

If they pass on Ayton, it’s more lack of brain than big balls, IMO.

 

[Chaplin]

If they pass on Ayton, it’s more lack of brain than big balls, IMO.

This shows that you have a much, much lower opinion of Doncic than most. Which is fine, but I think he’s better than you are giving him credit for.

 

[Cheesebeef]

This shows that you have a much, much lower opinion of Doncic than most. Which is fine, but I think he’s better than you are giving him credit for.

Doncic in my mind has become the MUST pick to make at 2. I didn't think that a month ago. And him being that pick at 2 isn't a knock on him. This is a really loaded draft and for anyone to be one of the top two picks has to be pretty damn good.

I just think Ayton is more of a sure thing... has the highest floor and highest ceiling which makes him the MUST pick at 1.

That's it.

 

[GatorAZ]

Ben Simmons is a top-5 freak of nature in the league behind Lebron, Giannis and AD. Without his strength and explosiveness he’s Dario Saric. At LSU he averaged as many rebounds as Ayton.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Ben Simmons is a top-5 freak of nature in the league behind Lebron, Giannis and AD. Without his strength and explosiveness he’s Dario Saric. At LSU he averaged as many rebounds as Ayton.

this is why i think the Doncic-Simmons comparison doesn't hold as much water. Simmons is also 2 inches taller. That said, Doncic is DEFINITELY a better shooter. MILES ahead of Simmons.

An elite passing Joe Johnson is Doncic's ceiling, IMO. Which is a fantastic player.

 

[Hoop Head]

I’m starting to think we are an anomaly. I would say a good 80% of the “knowledgeable” Suns fans not on this board are all for Doncic at #1.

A lot of them are making their pick on the assumption we are going to get Clint Capela, which is horribly naive.

I'm seeing the same thing elsewhere, primarily Reddit and Facebook. Suns fans on both seem genuinely mad that there isn't progression on a KAT trade either, thinking it's a no-brainer of sorts to trade the #1 for him. I've seen some suggest we add a sweetner to get it done also, which is incredibly short-sighted.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

this is why i think the Doncic-Simmons comparison doesn't hold as much water. Simmons is also 2 inches taller. That said, Doncic is DEFINITELY a better shooter. MILES ahead of Simmons.

An elite passing Joe Johnson is Doncic's ceiling, IMO. Which is a fantastic player.

A better passing version of Joe Johnson is pretty much a spot on comparison IMO. That certainly would be a very good NBA player, but certainly not good enough to pass on Ayton.

Ultimately I believe the fans out there that want Doncic over Ayton aren’t so much dilusional about Doncic, but they are unreasonably low on Ayton for some reason.