Bender vs. Chriss

[Errntknght]

I didn't care for either Bender or Chriss... I liked Labissiere, Sabonis and Thon Maker. Statistically they're none rousing successes and not busts either. Chriss is okay by the eye test - the knock on him was lousy rebounding but he's okay. I like his energy level. Not much in the way of rim protection despite some resounding blocks. Bender is showing enough - good rim protection for as young as he is.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

It's too soon to call Bender a bust, but anyone who says that they weren't hoping for more than him this season isn't being honest. So that means, by definition, that his rookie year has been a disappointment, which means that his entire projection range needs to be adjusted downward from when he was drafted.

Hoping? Yes, but I was not expecting more than I have seen. His biggest issue right now is strength and until he gets better in that department he is going to struggle. He can't fight through contact at all and gets pushed around down low and that is simply due to lack of strength. It is also why he tends to avoid contact because when he seeks contact he gets knocked around.

 

[3rdside]

Hoping? Yes, but I was not expecting more than I have seen. His biggest issue right now is strength and until he gets better in that department he is going to struggle. He can't fight through contact at all and gets pushed around down low and that is simply due to lack of strength. It is also why he tends to avoid contact because when he seeks contact he gets knocked around.

His biggest issue is not being able to hit the three because the rest of his offense is way too stiff for him to be reliable inside unless he develops a signature fadeaway move or something but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that one.

And if he can't hit the three then he's largely useless.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

His biggest issue is not being able to hit the three because the rest of his offense is way too stiff for him to be reliable inside unless he develops a signature fadeaway move or something but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that one.

And if he can't hit the three then he's largely useless.

That's because due to lack of strength he is forced to play against smaller quicker players. When he puts on more muscle and can actually hang with PFs and Cs down low he will actually start to have a speed/quickness advantage.

 

[3rdside]

If Jan Vessly - much faster, stronger and more athletic then Bender couldn't cut it in this league, I hold out little hope for Bender....Unless he can hit the three - which he's never in all of his career been able to do.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

If Jan Vessly - much faster, stronger and more athletic then Bender couldn't cut it in this league, I hold out little hope for Bender....Unless he can hit the three - which he's never in all of his career been able to do.

He's hit the 3 just as well as Chriss this year. Also basketball is about a lot more than athleticism and Bender seems to have a pretty good amount of BBIQ which is far more important that athleticism for big men IMO.

 

[3rdside]

*cut it in this league as an inside, 'not-soft' player

 

[3rdside]

He's hit the 3 just as well as Chriss this year. Also basketball is about a lot more than athleticism and Bender seems to have a pretty good amount of BBIQ which is far more important that athleticism for big men IMO.

I was all for the eye test until slin posted those stats - he's got a Draymond Green's chance in the NBA (that's <1%) of turning it around.

I'm not ruling it out entirely because of the eye test (I sound like those baseball scout dinosaurs in MoneyBall, and I hate saying that) but the stats are just so SO heavily against him at this point.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I was all for the eye test until slin posted those stats - he's got a Draymond Green's chance in the NBA (that's <1%) of turning it around.

I'm not ruling it out entirely because of the eye test (I sound like those baseball scout dinosaurs in MoneyBall, and I hate saying that) but the stats are just so SO heavily against him at this point.

There is a fundamental flaw in those stats. Bender is younger and more underdeveloped than virtually everyone on both of those lists. However we knew at the time he was drafted that he was a project and that is exactly what we are seeing right now. Bender is the youngest player in the entire NBA and unlike Booker last year that is accompanied by the fact that he is physically not ready to compete at this level. If Bender isn't showing any improvement next year or significant improvement in the next 2 years than I will be worried that he is a bust, but right now is far too early for that kind of worry.

 

[3rdside]

He's hit the 3 just as well as Chriss this year. Also basketball is about a lot more than athleticism and Bender seems to have a pretty good amount of BBIQ which is far more important that athleticism for big men IMO.

Chriss shot .350% in college, Bender has been career <.300%.

But yes, Chriss's .318% is comparable to Bender's .314% this year.

 

[3rdside]

There is a fundamental flaw in those stats. Bender is younger and more underdeveloped than virtually everyone on both of those lists. However we knew at the time he was drafted that he was a project and that is exactly what we are seeing right now. Bender is the youngest player in the entire NBA and unlike Booker last year that is accompanied by the fact that he is physically not ready to compete at this level. If Bender isn't showing any improvement next year or significant improvement in the next 2 years than I will be worried that he is a bust, but right now is far too early for that kind of worry.

I think slin pointed out that age can be probably be ignored, but yes that's another possible reason to say he's not a bust. Again, I wouldn't be putting money on it.

 

[3rdside]

Btw slinslin I used your stats on another board fyi, credit where credit's due.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

This PER argument for Bender is killing me. I'm dying a slow death, as if being shut in a room and forced to watch Brandon Knight play basketball for hours on end. Look at minutes played on those lists, and you'll see Bender is at the bottom of that list as well. We've got such an unbelievably small sample size for a 19-year-old kid that it can't possibly be considered statistically relevant.

Look at how PER is calculated (which...btw...I'm not exactly worshipping at the altar of John Hollinger). Things like free throw percentage affect that number. Bender is being hurt by his 30% free throw shooting. But he is 3 for 10! These numbers are dubious at best.

Look, has Bender proven anything? No. But he's a 19-year-old playing limited minutes in a new country and missed significant time due to injury. Saying he's a bad basketball player with no future based on these statistics is like saying Leonardo DiCaprio is a bad actor with no future (in 1992) because Growing Pains struggled with ratings under his tenure.

 

[hsandhu]

This PER argument for Bender is killing me. I'm dying a slow death, as if being shut in a room and forced to watch Brandon Knight play basketball for hours on end. Look at minutes played on those lists, and you'll see Bender is at the bottom of that list as well. We've got such an unbelievably small sample size for a 19-year-old kid that it can't possibly be considered statistically relevant.

Look at how PER is calculated (which...btw...I'm not exactly worshipping at the altar of John Hollinger). Things like free throw percentage affect that number. Bender is being hurt by his 30% free throw shooting. But he is 3 for 10! These numbers are dubious at best.

Look, has Bender proven anything? No. But he's a 19-year-old playing limited minutes in a new country and missed significant time due to injury. Saying he's a bad basketball player with no future based on these statistics is like saying Leonardo DiCaprio is a bad actor with no future (in 1992) because Growing Pains struggled with ratings under his tenure.

I don't even read comments looking at benders stats and extrapolating anything from them, as you point out it is so stupid it borders on insanity.

 

[3rdside]

This PER argument for Bender is killing me. I'm dying a slow death, as if being shut in a room and forced to watch Brandon Knight play basketball for hours on end. Look at minutes played on those lists, and you'll see Bender is at the bottom of that list as well. We've got such an unbelievably small sample size for a 19-year-old kid that it can't possibly be considered statistically relevant.

Look at how PER is calculated (which...btw...I'm not exactly worshipping at the altar of John Hollinger). Things like free throw percentage affect that number. Bender is being hurt by his 30% free throw shooting. But he is 3 for 10! These numbers are dubious at best.

Look, has Bender proven anything? No. But he's a 19-year-old playing limited minutes in a new country and missed significant time due to injury. Saying he's a bad basketball player with no future based on these statistics is like saying Leonardo DiCaprio is a bad actor with no future (in 1992) because Growing Pains struggled with ratings under his tenure.

Find one player on the list who is even remotely good that gives you confidence to say bender won't bust. Poor FT% may be one thing but it's not just that, it's 2pt% 3pt% as well...his whole stat line sucks.

And yes he's at the low end of minutes played but 507 minutes is still 8 and a half hours of playing time...in any pick up game I could usually tell how good someone is gonna be in about 5 minutes flat.

He's way too stiff to be an inside presence so he HAS to develop the three ball, and there is NOTHING to suggest he'll do that.

I am open to him being able to do that of course, but the stats are so heavily against him that if I was a betting man I would go all in on him NOT being able to.

So on the basis of probability and on the facts presented, anyone that bets he can is crazy.... anyone want to make that bet?

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Dennis Schroeder.

And as for the pickup game theory, Bender passes the eye test. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but didn't you even say he passed the eye test for you and these stats changed your mind?

 

[hsandhu]

Find one player on the list who is even remotely good that gives you confidence to say bender won't bust. Poor FT% may be one thing but it's not just that, it's 2pt% 3pt% as well...his whole stat line sucks.

And yes he's at the low end of minutes played but 507 minutes is still 8 and a half hours of playing time...in any pick up game I could usually tell how good someone is gonna be in about 5 minutes flat.

He's way too stiff to be an inside presence so he HAS to develop the three ball, and there is NOTHING to suggest he'll do that.

I am open to him being able to do that of course, but the stats are so heavily against him that if I was a betting man I would go all in on him NOT being able to.

So on the basis of probability and on the facts presented, anyone that bets he can is crazy.... anyone want to make that bet?

I'm not reading through all this, I just think it is utterly hilarious if you go back two
Pages in this thread and two days ago, you are extolling bender and linking to his highlights, now he is awful.

That is a flip flop trump could be proud of.

 

[3rdside]

I said he passed the eye test, yes, but that is based on highlight clips - the numbers tell a whole different story.

And yes he has good movement for a big and particularly lateral speed so he will probably defend well...but that doesn't make him not a bust

He will never be a force inside because of his coordination so he has to hit the three if he's going to be of value. But his stats suck there and they've always sucked and to expect him to go from a career .290% 3pt shooter (pre NBA and NBA stats) - 29 makes from 100 tries - to .333 or better is a massive stretch.

I'm open to it happening but it's very, very unlikely.

 

[3rdside]

I'm not reading through all this, I just think it is utterly hilarious if you go back two
Pages in this thread and two days ago, you are extolling bender and linking to his highlights, now he is awful.

That is a flip flop trump could be proud of.

Slinslin managed to highlight the error of my ways - no big deal.

If he was statistically average then I'd have maintained my stance but he statistically SUCKS, and it is very hard to get past that.

 

[3rdside]

It's like skateboarding - I wasn't great but if you filmed me trying the hardest trick in my arsenal I'd eventually land it, multiply that by all my tricks and you could piece together a video that would make me look awesome.

Same with Bender and his threes - I was under the false impression he was money from long range because all i see is a visually appealing stroke, shot high above his 7ft head, and at good speed as well....It looks good but statistically it isn't and never has been.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Just to sum up my point and then I will let it go...

Statistics taken from a small sample size with several mitigating factors should not be taken as incontrovertible proof.

 

[3rdside]

It's not proof for me, it's a balance of probabilities.

Dennis schroder is literally one single player in a sea of garbage and even he shot shot 34% in college.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Find one player on the list who is even remotely good that gives you confidence to say bender won't bust.

Just responding to the question.

 

[3rdside]

Just responding to the question.

Noted!

 

[hsandhu]

I said he passed the eye test, yes, but that is based on highlight clips - the numbers tell a whole different story.

And yes he has good movement for a big and particularly lateral speed so he will probably defend well...but that doesn't make him not a bust

He will never be a force inside because of his coordination so he has to hit the three if he's going to be of value. But his stats suck there and they've always sucked and to expect him to go from a career .290% 3pt shooter (pre NBA and NBA stats) - 29 makes from 100 tries - to .333 or better is a massive stretch.

I'm open to it happening but it's very, very unlikely.

You watch clips, you don't even see suns games in their entirety?