Breakout Or Bust? A Look At Leandro, Boris, and House

Dustbuster

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As a break from the constant Amare threads, the insult threads, the thread police, and other such drivel; let's put our creative energies into examining our three PGs/Swingmen: Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw, and Eddie House. It is fairly certain that not all three of them will be in any kind of regular rotation. Use the pros and cons to convince who us of who will break out of this group and steal the place of being a primary backup with regular minutes in the rotation. One factor is in common with these guys: they are all cheap, with bargain rate contracts.



Leandro Barbosa:



Pros:




  • Could be the fastest player in the league.
  • An outstanding scorer who has proven that even in an NBA atmosphere that he can rack up points very quickly.
  • Great first step and ability to penetrate right to the hoop.
  • Good outside shooter, although with a funky mechanic and release.
  • Does have some PG abilities, although they are limited.
  • Has the tools to be an outstanding defender.
  • Seems like he should be able to create for himself.
  • Young, with potential to improve.

Cons:




  • Seems to be somewhat delicate both in mind and body.
  • Not a reliable distributor at all.
  • Shoot first, shoot second, shoot third.
  • Although he penetrates well, he often is out of control on the penetration and either loses the ball or forces a bad shot.
  • Mid range game has thus far been limited.
  • Gets called for palming the ball fairly often.
  • Too small to be a true SG.
  • Has not in any way lived up to his defensive ability yet and is an unreliable defender, both individually and from a team perspective.

Recent Experience:




  • Mostly lost from rotation when most needed during playoffs. Was mostly ineffective when given time. Seemed to take a step back in some ways in this season over the last.
  • Was the undisputed leader on the Suns summer league team, and played well, although with some inconsistency. Not overly efficient in his scoring or distribution. Did make All-Review second team in Vegas.
  • Was a standout in the tournament of the Americas. Was an outstanding scorer, team leader, and crunch time shooter. Much more efficient in his scoring and better in his ball distribution. Was one of the best, if not the best player in the tournament. Made his team a winner.
  • All in all, this summer has been a very good one for Leandro. If he can make his summer success translate at all into NBA success he will certainly be a big part of what the Suns do this year. If he was exceptional, he could even win the starting 2-guard spot.




Boris Diaw



Pros:




  • Very, very versatile player with proven ability to play multiple positions.
  • Best overall athletic ability of the three.
  • Great size. This compliments his ability to play multiple positions.
  • Is already a good defender.
  • Good ability to distribute the ball.
  • Decent rebounder, shot blocker, and thief.
  • Unselfish.
  • Can finish well with the ball (the dunk over AK47, for example)/
  • Young, with a lot of potential to grow.

Cons:




  • Shooting numbers have been poor thus far in his career, particularly from deep. He’s been a SG that can’t shoot.
  • Recent FT shooting has been atrocious, although all of us hope that this is an anomaly.
  • Couldn’t get consistent playing time or produce well on the weakest team in the league.
  • Although Boris has distributing abilities, they may not be well developed enough to actually run a team, even in a backup type role.
  • Seems to be a bit fragile mentally.
  • Might pass up open shots out of fear of taking them, allowing defenses to sag off of him.

Recent Experience:




  • Last year had inconsistent minutes with the Hawks and didn’t do much with those that he had. Produced very poor shooting numbers, particularly from three point range. Not very impressive.
  • Play with summer league team was very inconsistent. Was primary distributor most of the time, but was not consistently good at it. Played better than during the NBA regular season, however, which is to be expected. Showed flashes of much improved play.
  • Like Leandro, Boris really broke out during play for his National team during the recent FIBA play. Became the leader of the team by most accounts, and did everything well – except shooting FTs. His overall shooting percentage has been absolutely exceptional, although his shooting from deep has still been pretty erratic. Has shown the ability to take over a game at this level, and create for himself offensively. He has also proven an exceptional ability to play multiple positions, having played essentially every position during this tournament and even covering centers. Has approached near triple-double level on several occasion throughout tournament play and the previous friendly matches. A very encouraging performance.

Eddie House



Pros:




  • Most proven NBA experience.
  • Great shooting ability, with exceptional numbers from three point range last season with Kings.
  • Perhaps more defined PG abilities than other two.
  • Basically does just about everything reasonably well, although primarily a catch and shoot guy.
  • Veteran intangibles could make him less prone to being a headcase when shot isn’t falling or as inconsistent as other two.
  • Produced very well when given a few more minutes in Charlotte last year.
  • Not turnover-prone at all (averaged .5 TOs per game last year). This indicates that he doesn’t make a lot of bad decisions.
  • Is still young enough to improve (27), although upside is probably far beneath other two.

Cons:




  • Undersized.
  • Not a true PG.
  • Fairly one-dimensional.
  • Has been cut repeatedly for some reason.
  • Defensive abilities are debatable, but definitely not great.
  • Limited upside.
  • May not be good enough all around to get consistent minutes on this team.

Recent Experience:




  • House probably had the best NBA season of the three this past year, although he played for three different teams throughout the season for some reason. He seemed to thrive in his role with Kings, and shot very well from the field. He hardly played in the playoffs, however.
  • As a veteran, House has not participated in any other summer play.

Conclusions



It is my opinion that of these three, Leandro is most likely to have a breakout season. Although his PG skills are limited, he can keep the team running and push the ball. He doesn’t lack in ability, just in confidence, and this summer should be just what the doctor has ordered. If he can learn to use his physical tools, he has the potential to actual be a star in his own right. He also has seniority, and this will undoubtedly be a “make or break” year for him, as management will have to make some decisions regarding his future with the team. I expect him to get some extra minutes as the result of that. It also just seems like this is his time.



I do think that Diaw will get regular minutes, however, mostly because of his size and ability to play multiple positions. I full expect to see him play positions 1-4 for brief stints in “trick” lineups. He very likely will be played with Leandro on a regular basis, either in the backcourt with him or in a “point-forward” type position.



House will undoubtedly have a few games where he scores a huge amount of points in a limited amounts of time, but I also expect him to get more than a few DNP-CDs over the course of the year simply because he has less to offer overall than the other two. He was a nice pickup for the money, but I expect him to have to fight more for minutes than the other two. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that he will shoot at an exceptional clip in our system, as at the moment he is a better shooter than the other two. I would rate them, right now, 1-3 in this order.



But I would like hear your opinion on the matter!
 

Chaplin

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Dustbuster said:
As a break from the constant Amare threads, the insult threads, the thread police, and other such drivel; let's put our creative energies into examining our three PGs/Swingmen: Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw, and Eddie House. It is fairly certain that not all three of them will be in any kind of regular rotation. Use the pros and cons to convince who us of who will break out of this group and steal the place of being a primary backup with regular minutes in the rotation. One factor is in common with these guys: they are all cheap, with bargain rate contracts.

Just curious how you came up with this line... :confused:
 
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Dustbuster

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Chaplin said:
Just curious how you came up with this line... :confused:

I posted this thread on a couple of message boards. All message boards get bogged down this time of year, and the topic of Amare's extension/Amare to LA/Amare to Mars has been beaten to death in recent weeks. People are either complaining about all the threads devoted to some little quote from Amare that everyone is overanalysing, or else they are starting new threads that do the same thing. I just posted this as a change of pace.
 

elindholm

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Very thoughtful post, although I do take issue with your premise that other recent discussions on the board has been a waste of time.

I agree with everything you wrote except for House's shooting ability, which in my opinion has not been demonstrated to be particularly strong and certainly isn't "great." He has made a good percentage from three-point range in quite limited time over the last two seasons, but that's it. His overall accuracy numbers are poor across the board, and there isn't sufficient evidence to suggest that his recent hot streak from long range is anything more than a blip on the radar.

The thing about both Barbosa and Diaw is that they've had summers like this before and it hasn't translated to NBA league play. Barbosa looked like a killer in last year's summer league, and Diaw (so saw Hawks fans) already had a solid reputation in Europe even before being drafted. So while their antics this summer are promising, they don't really tell us anything we don't already know. Remember, Bo Outlaw is a triple-double juggernaut in summer-league games too.
 

Chaplin

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Dustbuster said:
I posted this thread on a couple of message boards. All message boards get bogged down this time of year, and the topic of Amare's extension/Amare to LA/Amare to Mars has been beaten to death in recent weeks.

That's what I thought, but I think this board particularly hasn't had that problem this summer. :D
 

sly fly

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Great, well-thought article, Dust.

I'm in agreement that L. Barbosa has a good chance at having a breakout season. I've gone as far as to say he should be starting when the season tips off. Let's see what he can do, when given the confidence and time.

If it doesn't work out, then perhaps he can showcase enough of himself to attract decent offers from a team that needs his type of game. PHX may/could/hopefully not be in a position mid-way through the season in which they need to go out and get a true backup PG. The cap exception ($4.9 mil + Barbosa) may be enough to get a REALLY good player in return.
 

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After 1st half France is killing Lithuania 32-16(!).
Boris Diaw 11 points (3/3 for three), 5 rebounds and 1 assist. (best scorer of course, Parker 2pts btw)
It looks that France is on their way to semifinals.
 

elindholm

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PHX may/could/hopefully not be in a position mid-way through the season in which they need to go out and get a true backup PG.

To my surprise, the articles on hoopshype today about Payton going to Miami indicated that he had also had serious discussion with the Suns shortly before reaching his decision. I really don't think he would have been a good fit in Phoenix, but it is certainly true that the backup PG position is a huge question mark right now.
 

thegrahamcrackr

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elindholm said:
His overall accuracy numbers are poor across the board, and there isn't sufficient evidence to suggest that his recent hot streak from long range is anything more than a blip on the radar.


I can't remember exactly, but I thought House's overall FG% was about 45% since joining the Kings. To me that implies that his shot is actually pretty good, but his ability to create is where he shoots a lower percentage ( which is pretty consistant among most players). If I have time later today I will try to look up some more detailed numbers.

If he is served as a spot up shooter in the Suns system I think he will shoot just fine.
 

elindholm

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but I thought House's overall FG% was about 45% since joining the Kings.

Yes, 46% actually, but based on only 214 shots. Since that's barely a tenth of his career attempts, I'm not convinced. (Yet.)
 
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Dustbuster

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thegrahamcrackr said:
I can't remember exactly, but I thought House's overall FG% was about 45% since joining the Kings. To me that implies that his shot is actually pretty good, but his ability to create is where he shoots a lower percentage ( which is pretty consistant among most players). If I have time later today I will try to look up some more detailed numbers.

If he is served as a spot up shooter in the Suns system I think he will shoot just fine.

.458, actually, with an average of .451 between the three teams he played for. He also took 366 shots over the course of the year, so it is not so limited a sample that this percentage means nothing. I think he is a pretty good shooter.
 

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France advanced to semifinals. Final score 63-47.
Boris Diaw 18 points (7/12 fg, 1/2 ft), 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 turonovers.
Tony Parker 11 points (3/8 fg) and 5 assists.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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because leandro has had the opp to play in the system for the past two years, and basically come up largely empty (other than REALLY brief flashes) i think a break out season may be more likely from diaw. i say this b/c leandro has operated in this system and basically stunk. we've seen what he can do. how much more confidence from summer play can really help? diaw, on the other hand, hasn't played in this system yet. it's a system that rewards athletes and versatile players. yes, it also rewards shooters, i understand that, and admit that's gonna be the biggest thing holding diaw back. but given that he played with horrible or inexperienced talent before, and now gets to go to a system that compliments his athleticism and surrounds him with scorers, well, i think a player who is best known for his ability to distribute the ball may just surprise a lot of people.
 

Arizona's Finest

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Im going with Diaw as well because of his size and athletic ability. I believe a consistent shot can be learned and he is a young guy. He might never be Ray Allen but his FG% against European teams has been very good. I think he is very similar to Joe in that the guy needs a coach that has confidence in him (which Mike Woodson obviously did not) and coachs also helping address his defeciencies (another problem Atlanta likely has). If he can become even a 42% shooter with 32% from three ( a very possible situation being that Steve Nash seems to have that effect....) and learn to mesh his game with Amare and Marion. We might have a real player on our hands....i expect success from him although i think it will likely be after a season or two with the team.......

We will know when he comes up against his first taste of both success and adversity...
 

George O'Brien

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Good analysis (I'll pass on the opening paragraph :shrug: ).

Can we draw ANY conclusions from this summer? It's hard to say. As several others have pointed out, summer league and even international play has often been a poor indicator of NBA performance. None the less, it is nice that the results have been positive rather than negative.

1. Leandro distributed the ball on the Brazilian team. Brazil ran the ball and Leandro didn't shoot every time down the floor. This does not mean he was channeling Steve Nash, but it is something he was not showing last season.

2. Diaw CAN score. He may not be able to shoot free throws :rolleyes: , but he was generally the top or second highest scorer on the French team. He even went 3 of 4 for three (Euro three) against Lithuania.

Neither guy played well last season, so it would foolish to COUNT on either of these guys playing vastly better. But at least there is reason to hope.
 

Dr. Dumas

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Ouchie-Z-Clown said:
because leandro has had the opp to play in the system for the past two years, and basically come up largely empty (other than REALLY brief flashes) i think a break out season may be more likely from diaw. i say this b/c leandro has operated in this system and basically stunk. we've seen what he can do. how much more confidence from summer play can really help? diaw, on the other hand, hasn't played in this system yet. it's a system that rewards athletes and versatile players. yes, it also rewards shooters, i understand that, and admit that's gonna be the biggest thing holding diaw back. but given that he played with horrible or inexperienced talent before, and now gets to go to a system that compliments his athleticism and surrounds him with scorers, well, i think a player who is best known for his ability to distribute the ball may just surprise a lot of people.

I completely agree with this post. I think Diaw has a better chance at a break-out season because he now has better teammates. I'm sure it would zap the confidence out of anyone who was on a team that lost night-in-night-out.

If you are not consistant regarding shooting in Atlanta, it probably means another lose. If your shot is not falling in Phoenix, it means that there are 7-8 guys that can pick up the slack.
 

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elindholm said:
The thing about both Barbosa and Diaw is that they've had summers like this before and it hasn't translated to NBA league play. Barbosa looked like a killer in last year's summer league, and Diaw (so saw Hawks fans) already had a solid reputation in Europe even before being drafted. So while their antics this summer are promising, they don't really tell us anything we don't already know. Remember, Bo Outlaw is a triple-double juggernaut in summer-league games too.


I tend to agree except for the Bo Outlaw analogy.

I know what you are saying (in regard to intent), however, it should be remembered that Barbosa is only age 22 and Diaw is only age 23.

Both players still have the possibility to develop into good NBA players due to their youth, much like JJ did when he first came here. Although, I think JJ was even younger when the Suns acquired him from Boston (perhaps like age 20).

It seems like I was always defending JJ early in his career against criticism because many fans wanted to write him off because of his early play with the Suns as he was so inconsistent and lacked confidence.

I still have trouble believing Barbosa is still only 22 years old.

In essence, I think both Diaw and Barbosa still have a shot at being quality NBA players if the fans remain patient.
 

elindholm

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In essence, I think both Diaw and Barbosa still have a shot at being quality NBA players if the fans remain patient.

Actually, I doubt the patience of the fans has much effect at all.

I agree that they both still have a shot; my only point is that the ability to tear up other leagues doesn't say anything one way or the other about a player's NBA potential.
 

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Mainstreet said:
Although, I think JJ was even younger when the Suns acquired him from Boston (perhaps like age 20).


That is probably about right. He spent 1 year in college, and was traded to us half way through his rookie season. If he was in the normal age group he would have been 19 or 20.
 

Treesquid PhD

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Dr. Dumas said:
I completely agree with this post. I think Diaw has a better chance at a break-out season because he now has better teammates. I'm sure it would zap the confidence out of anyone who was on a team that lost night-in-night-out.

If you are not consistant regarding shooting in Atlanta, it probably means another lose. If your shot is not falling in Phoenix, it means that there are 7-8 guys that can pick up the slack.

It also means you won't be getting much PT.
 

Treesquid PhD

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elindholm said:
In essence, I think both Diaw and Barbosa still have a shot at being quality NBA players if the fans remain patient.
Actually, I doubt the patience of the fans has much effect at all.

I agree that they both still have a shot; my only point is that the ability to tear up other leagues doesn't say anything one way or the other about a player's NBA potential.


This is 100% accurate and irrelevant to fans. Most fans want Diaw to succeed because he is big and athletic and it would in some small way give credence to the JJ trade. So far this is a summary of why Daiw will succeed.

1. Played well for Team France
2. Is athletic and big
3. Played on a bad teams and lost confidence

the only argument I can buy is that he has better players around him will showcase his athletic talents, but mainly having Nash on the court with him certainly will give him the best chance to gather easy buckets and open looks. The others are not indicators on how well he will do IMO.

1. Paraphrasing elindholm, playing well in post NBA season leagues has rarely been a great indicator of NBA season success. I can't say how much I agree here, fans often get excited when a player does really well against subpar talent often the assumption is that it directly translates to the the highest levels of competition. This is often seen in the 4th quarter of NFL football games when players tear up 3rd string talent, then fans are shocked as to why that player struggles when the real NFL season starts..I see this as a parallel to the NBA offseason leagues. I am pretty sure Leandro was the summer league MVP or at least one of the top players, look how his season ended.

2. Being athletic and big is a nice building block, but again hardly any reason to expect success. I can only judge him on his stats and video I have seen and he looks just ok to me.

3. Playing on a bad team should have yielded him more PT yet he often found himself on the bench, if he was so good then I doubt Atlanta would have given him up with a smile on their faces. Atlanta is a bad franchise but even they were surprised the Suns asked for Daiw. I just hope the same scout who jonesed for Tim Perry isn't the same one handpicking Boris.

This Suns team is too good to baby a player through this season and give him big minuets, look at Leandro's season last year as an example, D'Antoni loses confidence on his marginal players quickly, if you are not making a contribution then you are on the bench... I will also point out Leandro found the bench rather easily last season on a shallow team; One thing we can all agree on is this team has a lot of depth at the swing positions. This much is for certain to me, if Boris wants to make that big impression and play, he needs to do it early and consistently on both ends or he will find his playing time at the end of blowouts.
Leandro has been in the system and my guess is coach will favor that at least at first, so my second guess is that Barbosa gets the first shot at significant PT, if he produces early I suspect he will get the majority of the minuets off the bench over Daiw as I have serious doubts that both will receive significant minuets night in and night out. Therefore, I think Leandro has the best chance just by default, and if he understands this is his last chance here.
 
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George O'Brien

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It certainly sounds like there is an effort to create a controversy where I suspect most of us agree:

1. It is nice that Barbosa and Diaw are doing well
2. It doesn't mean much until they show something in real games

I'm more inclined to look for reasons why they MIGHT succeed than reasons why they probably won't; but they have a long way to go.
 

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I think Diaw will do well ... we'll see if D'Antoni put them on the floor together during preseason I'm sure ... Diaw is versatile which is nice...Versatility is one of the reasons we can switch around many people in the line up

Barbosa does have really fast hands and he can finish on a breakaway... Consider also that Steve Nash has been taking him under his wing for the most part, this should have benefits sooner rather than later..
 

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I can't say how much I agree here, fans often get excited when a player does really well against subpar talent often the assumption is that it directly translates to the the highest levels of competition.

Subpar talent?:mad:
This is the results of the last Olympics :

1
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Argentina 2
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Italy 3
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United States of America 4
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Lithuania 5
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Greece
Here the results for the USA Team :
Preliminary round :
USA lost 2 games. One against Lithuania.

Lithuania 94 : 90 United States of America United States of America 89 : 53 Angola Puerto Rico 92 : 73 United States of America United States of America 77 : 71 Greece United States of America 89 : 79 Australia

Quarter Finals : A win but not 30 pts (like in 1992)

Spain 94 : 102 United States of America

semi finals : Eliminated against Argentina.

Argentina 89 : 81 United States of America
game for the third place : It is hard to win a medal.

Lithuania 96 : 104 United States of America

Of course, the USA didn't play with a dream team llike in 1992.

But
Iverson, Allen ezail, Marbury, Stephan, Wade, Dwayne, Boozer, Carlos, Anthony, Carmelo, James, Lebron, Okafor , Marion, Shawn, Stoudemire, Amare, Duncan, Timothy Theodore, Odom, Lamar, Jefferson, Richard

You must admit that there were a "few" good players in this team.
You must admit than nowdays, the level of international championship is not "subpar".

Boris is doing well against strong teams and it is a good thing.
Of course it doesn't mean that with Phoenix he will play 30 minutes, score 20 pts 10 rbds 7 assists. Nobody says that. I only believe that he came do some good things.
 
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mathbzh

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Treesquid

I was a bit upset by your remark about "subpar". But I agree with a lot of things in your analysis. And I know that it will be very hard for Diaw to win his place in the Suns rotation.
 

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