Bruce Arians - “Arizona Was Going to Draft Deshaun Watson”

Solar7

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I’m still mad the Texans jumped ahead of us...Keim should have saw it coming.

Great move by the Texans, they would still be in purgatory without Watson.
Should have seen it coming? How in the hell do you predict two jumps of 10+ picks?

This is again, COMPLETE revisionist history. 20/20 hindsight. We also should have traded up for Ezekiel Elliot, I guess. Trade up every year, every time.
 

Solar7

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You're right. Many so called experts were questioning both QB's. SK shouldn't have listened & got aggressive. Both QB's are now doing very well. Shows you how good are scouting dept is compared to the Texans & Chiefs lol.
"SK shouldn't have listened"

...Aren't we all pissed off at this dude for constantly trying to be the smartest guy in the room, and failing miserably at it?
 

Cardsfaninlouky

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So who was in charge of building the roster for the disastrous 2018 offseason?
Yes & who wanted to hire Wilks with Mikey McCoy as the OC lol? I hope that was all on MB & not SK lol. SK will get another season as the GM, I hope he wasn't that stupid. You're probably right though, all SK more than likely.
 

Cardsfaninlouky

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"SK shouldn't have listened"

...Aren't we all pissed off at this dude for constantly trying to be the smartest guy in the room, and failing miserably at it?
I hope he just sticks to his "secretive plan" for 2020. Draft the exact players PFF has us taking in every round lol. He can kick back, drink his beer & not have to worry about a thing lol. His 2019 draft was almost identical to PFF. I think he just grabbed their draft spread sheet & said "here's our board guys". Gotta be better than him doing it by himself.
 

dscher

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Yes, he was a bad pick. If we are looking to replace Kyler at QB with a first overall draft pick in 5 years (like the Chargers did), it will be a bad pick.


If Keim was a "reactionary" GM, he would have traded his first round pick for Watson the moment that Mahomes went off the board. A panic move, which is apparently what you're all arguing for.


Ridiculous. They are great players, but the team deserves no credit at all. They ****ed up. Identify players that fit your system, or adapt to those players if they are great. You don't win football games by picking players for other teams.



To both of you guys, would you argue that we just trade away our entire draft every year for who we "identify?" I'll invoke Ricky Williams again... that ruined their team. We can't even field a roster next year with our picks. Wanna trade away more?

I'm not sure what's happened to this board, but football logic seems to have disappeared. Maybe too much Madden.
I guess we'll just agree to disagree on this one and what the meaning of reactionary vs proactive is in our world's. :)
 

Chopper0080

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If Keim was a "reactionary" GM, he would have traded his first round pick for Watson the moment that Mahomes went off the board. A panic move, which is apparently what you're all arguing for.
I disagree with this, but it is more because I believe that how the board was built was flawed. If, listening to Arians, the Cardinals targeted both Watson and Mahomes with their first round pick, those players being QBs should have been elevated on their board. Keim should have had a range in mind pre-draft of how high he was willing to move for those players. Example...if Mahomes and Watson were 1 and 2 on their draft board, and the Cardinals are sitting at 13...you have to know that you are likely to need to make a move to get one of the two. Now, you can argue that if both are gone by #5, it was never in play. If one or two are available past #5, you need to know pre-draft who is interested in moving back. When both are available after 5, it is ok to wait if you have similar grades on each player, but you also need to be ready to move up immediate if one is gone. You also need to know what spots are people willing to move out of. So, if I know the Jets aren't willing to move out, but the Chargers and Panthers are, I need to be on the phone with the Panthers to know what the cost is if Chargers trade back or take one of the two QBs.

That is what being a GM is. It is having if-then statements set pre-draft so you can make the moves you need to on draft day in that condensed window of time. As soon as the Bills traded their pick to the Chiefs, Keim should have been ready and already planted the groundwork to make a move with the Saints at 11 or Browns at 12. On top of that, if for some reason the Saints and/or Browns didn't want to trade with Arizona, they should have moved up to the Bills spot at 10.
 

Solar7

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I disagree with this, but it is more because I believe that how the board was built was flawed. If, listening to Arians, the Cardinals targeted both Watson and Mahomes with their first round pick, those players being QBs should have been elevated on their board. Keim should have had a range in mind pre-draft of how high he was willing to move for those players. Example...if Mahomes and Watson were 1 and 2 on their draft board, and the Cardinals are sitting at 13...you have to know that you are likely to need to make a move to get one of the two. Now, you can argue that if both are gone by #5, it was never in play. If one or two are available past #5, you need to know pre-draft who is interested in moving back. When both are available after 5, it is ok to wait if you have similar grades on each player, but you also need to be ready to move up immediate if one is gone. You also need to know what spots are people willing to move out of. So, if I know the Jets aren't willing to move out, but the Chargers and Panthers are, I need to be on the phone with the Panthers to know what the cost is if Chargers trade back or take one of the two QBs.

That is what being a GM is. It is having if-then statements set pre-draft so you can make the moves you need to on draft day in that condensed window of time. As soon as the Bills traded their pick to the Chiefs, Keim should have been ready and already planted the groundwork to make a move with the Saints at 11 or Browns at 12. On top of that, if for some reason the Saints and/or Browns didn't want to trade with Arizona, they should have moved up to the Bills spot at 10.
This is where the logic is flawed though. You're assuming those teams would just move back no matter what, and that they weren't enamored with the guy they selected. If you look back at that draft, probably the only team after 5 and before 10 that was willing to move back would be the Bengals, and then at that point, why make the trade when there's only 3 picks to go in order to get two players you covet, and none of the teams in front of you seemingly want QBs?

Most of those teams tabbed pro bowl players they were enamored with. Who is to say we didn't get on the phone with the Saints and have them say "sorry, Lattimore is our guy, no deal," and then the Browns as well, who probably hopped on the phone with us and said "well the Texans are offering us a #1 pick... ready to outbid?"

It's why I keep saying the cost of moving up was a first. Obviously both the Chiefs and Texans were willing to pay that, and I'm sure that the Bills and Browns weren't the only ones who received calls.

We simply got outbid, this wasn't some devious lack of strategy or caring.
 

Chopper0080

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This is where the logic is flawed though. You're assuming those teams would just move back no matter what, and that they weren't enamored with the guy they selected. If you look back at that draft, probably the only team after 5 and before 10 that was willing to move back would be the Bengals, and then at that point, why make the trade when there's only 3 picks to go in order to get two players you covet, and none of the teams in front of you seemingly want QBs?

Most of those teams tabbed pro bowl players they were enamored with. Who is to say we didn't get on the phone with the Saints and have them say "sorry, Lattimore is our guy, no deal," and then the Browns as well, who probably hopped on the phone with us and said "well the Texans are offering us a #1 pick... ready to outbid?"

It's why I keep saying the cost of moving up was a first. Obviously both the Chiefs and Texans were willing to pay that, and I'm sure that the Bills and Browns weren't the only ones who received calls.

We simply got outbid, this wasn't some devious lack of strategy or caring.
Again, that is why the groundwork needs to be set pre-draft. To think that these teams preferred to move back to the 20's when they could have moved back 2 or 3 spots is kind of silly. The price was high because it needed to be that high to pass on all of those players. If the price is a 3rd and a future 1st to go back to 18 spots and you offer a 2nd to go back 2 spots...the value of the second trade is better for the team trading out.
 

Chopper0080

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Also, let's not pretend that teams suddenly decide to make deals in 10 minutes fielding a bunch of calls. Teams that move down are generally prepared to move down prior to the draft. If they have been offered something they like pre-draft, they will always give the chance to up your deal the day of if a competing offer arises.
 

Solar7

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Again, that is why the groundwork needs to be set pre-draft. To think that these teams preferred to move back to the 20's when they could have moved back 2 or 3 spots is kind of silly. The price was high because it needed to be that high to pass on all of those players. If the price is a 3rd and a future 1st to go back to 18 spots and you offer a 2nd to go back 2 spots...the value of the second trade is better for the team trading out.
The value of a first round pick is almost never better than a first rounder. Especially if those teams don't particularly care for anyone in that range. I'm sure this was all discussed pre-draft, but teams maneuver and change their deals, as you mentioned. This is where I struggle discussing with not only you, but others on this subject, I just don't think you understand how important that first round pick really is, especially when the Browns/Bills are sitting thinking "do I really want a Haason Reddick-tier player right now?"

The future first completely blows a second rounder and being a few slots closer out of the water in terms of value. Especially in the case of the Browns, who got a top five pick out of it.
 

Solar7

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Also, let's not pretend that teams suddenly decide to make deals in 10 minutes fielding a bunch of calls. Teams that move down are generally prepared to move down prior to the draft. If they have been offered something they like pre-draft, they will always give the chance to up your deal the day of if a competing offer arises.
Yes, I'm sure we had the opportunity to up our deal. I'm sure those teams both knew we were interested, and I have zero doubt we talked to them and found out what other teams were prepared to give up. And I think we smartly passed on the deal because it was way too rich.

You guys are only mad because of who these players turned out to be. 95% of the board would have rioted if we gave up enough to be competitive with a team offering up a first round pick, especially because both players were divisive. As I've mentioned, if this were Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, or Blake Bortles, no one would be lashing out at Keim for "not being proactive." And I only mention those guys because they were either liked by us or drafted by us.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ls-gm-steve-keim-we-liked-blake-bortles-a-lot
 

GatorAZ

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Also, let's not pretend that teams suddenly decide to make deals in 10 minutes fielding a bunch of calls. Teams that move down are generally prepared to move down prior to the draft. If they have been offered something they like pre-draft, they will always give the chance to up your deal the day of if a competing offer arises.

Should’ve told Keim this before he made Rosen available right before the #1 pick. :bang:
 

JosiahLee

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Should have seen it coming? How in the hell do you predict two jumps of 10+ picks?

This is again, COMPLETE revisionist history. 20/20 hindsight. We also should have traded up for Ezekiel Elliot, I guess. Trade up every year, every time.

I think Keim should have anticipated it, obviously the Texans anticipated the Cards wanting him...I get staying put of Mahomes was still there (which it was rumored they liked as well)
 

Stout

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Again, that is why the groundwork needs to be set pre-draft. To think that these teams preferred to move back to the 20's when they could have moved back 2 or 3 spots is kind of silly. The price was high because it needed to be that high to pass on all of those players. If the price is a 3rd and a future 1st to go back to 18 spots and you offer a 2nd to go back 2 spots...the value of the second trade is better for the team trading out.

BINGO!!!
 

Solar7

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I still don't see how this is "bingo." moving back into the 20s is no big deal if you're netting a top pick for next year. Unfortunately the value charts don't account for for trades from additional years, but that first rounder is worth sooooo much more.
 

kerouac9

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I still don't see how this is "bingo." moving back into the 20s is no big deal if you're netting a top pick for next year. Unfortunately the value charts don't account for for trades from additional years, but that first rounder is worth sooooo much more.

They do. The best practice is to value a trade involving a later year as the last pick in that particular round.
 

Solar7

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They do. The best practice is to value a trade involving a later year as the last pick in that particular round.
Recent evidence shows it's revised, but 1,310 is what the Browns received in that case compared to our 1,600 if we gave up our 2nd rounder (to move up one spot), for a pick valued at 1,150. For the Bills, they received 1,542 for a pick worth 1,300. Of course, assuming all picks were equal to the "last pick of the first round."

We would have dramatically overpaid for the move with a 2nd, and been outbid with a third. The idea of giving up our 2nd to move up 1-3 spots is ridiculous. A third would have been completely outbid. And again, we would have destroyed Keim for giving up a 2nd round pick to move one spot.

(Also, K9, I don't know if you're arguing with me or not, I'm just breaking down the numbers as we talk about it with that information.)

As mentioned, things were revised that year too:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/30/nfl-teams-have-revised-the-draft-trade-chart/
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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In our dysfunctional Cardinal history, that makes perfect sense:cheers:. Do you really feel that comfortable that MB would even hire a better GM than Keim? I don't. AW would probably get the job & who really knows how that would play out. Keim did sit over 10-6, 11-5, and 13-3 seasons. No guarantee he ever gets back to that, but it did actually happen. With Murray at QB, this team will only get better.
Stockholm syndrome.

mall bad stuff was becasue of arians. Now all bad stuff because of Mikey. Keim escapes all blame but is somehow credited with the good seasons, despite the fact that you’re arguing he had no say. Ooooookay. You’re hanging your hat on a long time ago in nfl terms. A long time ago and completely different fact patterns.

Keim sucks. Can his arse.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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It wouldn't have hurt my feelings one bit if they told the truth about which QB they were going to take, immediately following the draft. Reddick should be happy he's even currently still getting a paycheck lol. Everyone knew we needed a QB, their scouts are just better than ours, knew how good PM & DW were gonna be & called our bluff. If SK actually wanted either QB, seems to me he was banking on other teams believing all the negative things being said about both. Didn't think other teams would trade up because of that. He gambled & lost. Split a pair of tens at the blackjack table. We have our QB now so I'm not worried.
Yes. All this. Happy with kyler but still an indicator of keim sucking.

fire keim!
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Yes, he was a bad pick. If we are looking to replace Kyler at QB with a first overall draft pick in 5 years (like the Chargers did), it will be a bad pick.


If Keim was a "reactionary" GM, he would have traded his first round pick for Watson the moment that Mahomes went off the board. A panic move, which is apparently what you're all arguing for.


Ridiculous. They are great players, but the team deserves no credit at all. They ****ed up. Identify players that fit your system, or adapt to those players if they are great. You don't win football games by picking players for other teams.



To both of you guys, would you argue that we just trade away our entire draft every year for who we "identify?" I'll invoke Ricky Williams again... that ruined their team. We can't even field a roster next year with our picks. Wanna trade away more?

I'm not sure what's happened to this board, but football logic seems to have disappeared. Maybe too much Madden.
Oy such bad argument when you resort to overinflating an argument. Never indicated would go the Ricky Williams route. Nor do I believe that’s what it would’ve taken. But just to play along with your scenario, would I have traded:

reddick
Baker
Chad Williams
Dorian Johnson
Will Holden
TJ Logan
Rudy Ford

for Mahomes or Watson?

yup. Yupyupyup. 100%. You’d be stupid to argue otherwise.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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This is where the logic is flawed though. You're assuming those teams would just move back no matter what, and that they weren't enamored with the guy they selected. If you look back at that draft, probably the only team after 5 and before 10 that was willing to move back would be the Bengals, and then at that point, why make the trade when there's only 3 picks to go in order to get two players you covet, and none of the teams in front of you seemingly want QBs?

Most of those teams tabbed pro bowl players they were enamored with. Who is to say we didn't get on the phone with the Saints and have them say "sorry, Lattimore is our guy, no deal," and then the Browns as well, who probably hopped on the phone with us and said "well the Texans are offering us a #1 pick... ready to outbid?"

It's why I keep saying the cost of moving up was a first. Obviously both the Chiefs and Texans were willing to pay that, and I'm sure that the Bills and Browns weren't the only ones who received calls.

We simply got outbid, this wasn't some devious lack of strategy or caring.
No man. Just no. In your world every first is worth the same. They’re not. Moving down 3 spots and getting a first half second the same year is likely better than moving down 10 spots and an end of first round pick a year later. The first round move down is more valuable to the cards slot than to either the Texans or chiefs. And the current year 2nd is likely close to equal value for a next years late first. Current draft picks are always more valuable than later year picks. So if took our 1st, 2nd, and 4th (or even our 3rd) that year to move up and get one of those two it would’ve (a) likely been worth it; and (b) been an equivalent, of not superior, deal in terms of value than what the chiefs or Texans offered.
 

Solar7

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Oy such bad argument when you resort to overinflating an argument. Never indicated would go the Ricky Williams route. Nor do I believe that’s what it would’ve taken. But just to play along with your scenario, would I have traded:

reddick
Baker
Chad Williams
Dorian Johnson
Will Holden
TJ Logan
Rudy Ford

for Mahomes or Watson?

yup. Yupyupyup. 100%. You’d be stupid to argue otherwise.
Of course, those players all suck (or are okay at best). But you're assuming that's how it would have played out. Keim hasn't had a good draft, but if you're willing to blow through picks under the assumption that we can get one major player and no one else will be decent, it's time to change GMs. Although I don't think you and I are arguing about changing GMs at all, haha.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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The value of a first round pick is almost never better than a first rounder. Especially if those teams don't particularly care for anyone in that range. I'm sure this was all discussed pre-draft, but teams maneuver and change their deals, as you mentioned. This is where I struggle discussing with not only you, but others on this subject, I just don't think you understand how important that first round pick really is, especially when the Browns/Bills are sitting thinking "do I really want a Haason Reddick-tier player right now?"

The future first completely blows a second rounder and being a few slots closer out of the water in terms of value. Especially in the case of the Browns, who got a top five pick out of it.
Wow this where I think you’re totally out to lunch. The greatest difference in value in the draft tends to be between first round picks. So the difference of our slot and the chiefs and Texans slots in the first would have been overwhelmingly in favor of our position. And the absolutely recognized time value of picks favoring a current pick over a future pick would’ve favored our deal as well.
 
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