Carson Palmer 96.5 QB rating over last 9 games

[Cardiac]

Add about 10 points for line play. Between being harassed or set back by a penalty I'd say he played well: not great; but well. No other available QB is likely to give the Cards a better chance to win next year.

Good to hear from you Harry. Please feel free to add any other thoughts you may have about this year and what areas you would address this offseason.

I agree that CP did play well, do you think great is possible if the Oline gets fixed?

 

[Russ Smith]

If I had pick out a game here and there, I would see your point Kerouac9, but when there was an obvious change in the teams performance under a new coach at a certain point in the year and I site ALL games from that point on and it's a large enough sample to be significant....

Well the other thing is that us getting better starting with Atlanta actually is consistent with what Arians said after Seattle. He had said for a couple of weeks we were getting close on offense. After Seattle he said the upside to playing 2 games that close together was we now got 10 days before the next game so we had extra time to work on the offense.

 

[Russ Smith]

That's what I said Sunday. It seems like he has to throw that early pick, or near pick, and then he's ready to go. Going from memory, it doesn't seem like he threw many picks in the 2nd halves of games all year.

12 in the first half 10 in the second half.

More accurately 9 in the first quarter and 7 in the third quarter. Seems like maybe it takes him awhile to figure out what he's seeing so he adjusts in the 2nd quarter, they adjust at half ,and then he adjusts in the 4th?

 

[kerouac9]

Because the 2nd half of a season is a good sample size. I guess we could just look at Brees versus Seattle. @St.Louis, @NYJ, or @Car in the 2nd half of the year and suggest he's losing it.

All QB's face good or bad defenses every week. The fact remains that Palmer was a top 5 QB the last half of the season, which includes the last 4, 5 or 6 games that you want to use.

Anybody who doesn't like what CP did the 2nd half of the season just wants to be argumentative or doesn't know what good QB play looks like when they see it.

Then let's look at the second half of the season. My issue was with 9 games (seems pretty arbitrary to me) rather than the 8 you (fairly, IMO) posit.

As I said in the very post you quote, over the last 8 games of the season, 65% completion percentage, about 8 YPA, 14 TDs, 8 INTs. Essentially average quarterback play.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Then let's look at the second half of the season. My issue was with 9 games (seems pretty arbitrary to me) rather than the 8 you (fairly, IMO) posit.

As I said in the very post you quote, over the last 8 games of the season, 65% completion percentage, about 8 YPA, 14 TDs, 8 INTs. Essentially average quarterback play.

Like I've mentioned in many threads about Palmer, I'm waiting for somebody to name 3 QB's that have played better in the 2nd half. That's not average to me.

 

[kerouac9]

Like I've mentioned in many threads about Palmer, I'm waiting for somebody to name 3 QB's that have played better in the 2nd half. That's not average to me.

Peyton Manning: 65%, 26 TDs, 4 INTs
Phil Rivers: 66%, 15 TDs, 4 INTs
Drew Brees: 71%, 18 TDs, 5 INTs

There you go. I could do more, but this was pretty easy.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Then let's look at the second half of the season. My issue was with 9 games (seems pretty arbitrary to me) rather than the 8 you (fairly, IMO) posit.

As I said in the very post you quote, over the last 8 games of the season, 65% completion percentage, about 8 YPA, 14 TDs, 8 INTs. Essentially average quarterback play.

Is that really average QB play? I'm not a huge Palmer fan by any stretch, but most of those numbers if you extrapolated out over a full season would put him in the top 10 in every category (except picks). On the whole, he was above average for the second half of the year, but the 3 turnovers in the Eagles game and 4 in the Hawks game just rubbed me the wrong way. It's why I'm more then okay going into next season with him as our starter, but I do want someone taken relatively high to groom behind him.

I think we can win with Palmer, but unless we have the best defense of all time (like the '03 Bucs or '00 Ravens did), I don't think we can win it all with him.

 

[kerouac9]

Is that really average QB play? I'm not a huge Palmer fan by any stretch, but most of those numbers if you extrapolated out over a full season would put him in the top 10 in every category (except picks). On the whole, he was above average for the second half of the year, but the 3 turnovers in the Eagles game and 4 in the Hawks game just rubbed me the wrong way. It's why I'm more then okay going into next season with him as our starter, but I do want someone taken relatively high to groom behind him.

I think we can win with Palmer, but unless we have the best defense of all time (like the '03 Bucs or '00 Ravens did), I don't think we can win it all with him.

I don't know. It's not really elite-level QB play, is it? I think that's good enough to get you to the playoffs, but I remember too much that there were games where essentially Arians would have to take the ball out of Palmer's hands for long stretches of time because he'd lost the strike zone--yes, even in the second half of the season. We won some of those games, and even if Palmer threw a big TD pass to win it in the end, that doesn't really get put on Palmer's shoulders.

Look: I think that Palmer can be the best of the middle-third of NFL quarterbacks. That's great, and if this defense can continue to play at an elite level, we'll continue to win 10 games until Palmer declines. But he's not in the class of the elite players, and Palmer can really ONLY decline at this point.

Unfortunately, we play in a division with two elite quarterbacks. Is Palmer good enough for us to go 4-2 in the division the next two years? I don't know--that's the real issue.

EDIT: w/r/t the question of "average" quarterback play--on the season, according to the advanced stats of football outsiders, Palmer ranked 15th in DYAR (essentially value over the season) and 17th in DVOA (value per play). His Total QBR ranked 21st (51.9, so ever-so-slightly above average).

It takes a lot of effort and talent to IMPROVE onto that next plateau. I don't know if Palmer is really capable of that at this point in his career.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Peyton Manning: 65%, 26 TDs, 4 INTs
Phil Rivers: 66%, 15 TDs, 4 INTs
Drew Brees: 71%, 18 TDs, 5 INTs

There you go. I could do more, but this was pretty easy.

Brady 16 TDs, 5 INTs with a 98.55 passer rating.

Looks like Big Ben with 16 TDs and 4 INTs and 93.4 passer rating was probably better too.

that being said, Palmer's number probably fall in line with the bottom of top ten QBs, which is still above average. I just don't think he was one of the elite QBs in the second half of the season. Still, a very good improvement. But those picks is what separates him from the guys above.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't know. It's not really elite-level QB play, is it?

Never said it was. I don't think there's just "average play" and "elite" play. Why does it have ti be so black and white? He was above average for the second half of the season. He gives us that type of play all season next year and we're probably in the playoffs with the chance to do some damage.

I think that's good enough to get you to the playoffs, but I remember too much that there were games where essentially Arians would have to take the ball out of Palmer's hands for long stretches of time because he'd lost the strike zone--yes, even in the second half of the season. We won some of those games, and even if Palmer threw a big TD pass to win it in the end, that doesn't really get put on Palmer's shoulders.

I agree with most of this.

Look: I think that Palmer can be the best of the middle-third of NFL quarterbacks. That's great, and if this defense can continue to play at an elite level, we'll continue to win 10 games until Palmer declines. But he's not in the class of the elite players, and Palmer can really ONLY decline at this point.

you'll get no argument from me here on Palmer being elite, and I don't think he ever leads us to a title which is why I'm okay with him as our QB next year, but want someone being groomed from this draft to take us into the future.

Unfortunately, we play in a division with two elite quarterbacks.

wait...come on now. Kaepernick is an elite QB? I don't buy that. He's got potential, but you want to talk about someone getting handcuffs put on them, Kaepernick is one of those guys at this point.

Is Palmer good enough for us to go 4-2 in the division the next two years? I don't know--that's the real issue.

I don't think he is, which is why I don't believe he's our "QBOF", but am okay with him as our QBOP as long we draft his successor to take over in a year or two.

EDIT: w/r/t the question of "average" quarterback play--on the season, according to the advanced stats of football outsiders, Palmer ranked 15th in DYAR (essentially value over the season) and 17th in DVOA (value per play). His Total QBR ranked 21st (51.9, so ever-so-slightly above average).

You're moving the goalposts on the discussion by bringing in entire season stats. this discussion is about Carson's second half and the idea that he could do that moving forward, hopefully with a full year of the system under his belt and a better O-line. I'm dubious but wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

It takes a lot of effort and talent to IMPROVE onto that next plateau. I don't know if Palmer is really capable of that at this point in his career.

I'm with ya there. If he's able to stay where he was the second half of the season, you've got a solid QB to transition you until you find that legit QB of the future, but the team has to do that, IMO.

 

[kerouac9]

Never said it was. I don't think there's just "average play" and "elite" play. Why does it have ti be so black and white? He was above average for the second half of the season. He gives us that type of play all season next year and we're probably in the playoffs with the chance to do some damage.

It doesn't, really. I don't know if he was "above average for the second half of the season," because I don't know what the numbers/standards are for that second half. Palmer was good enough in the second half for us to go 6-2, which is pretty good. I'm not one of those people calling for him to be replaced right now. But I think that it's important to have standards and rankings across the league with which to compare.

wait...come on now. Kaepernick is an elite QB? I don't buy that. He's got potential, but you want to talk about someone getting handcuffs put on them, Kaepernick is one of those guys at this point.

That's a fair and debatable point. We can have that discussion, but that's probably not one for this thread. What I will say here is that I expect Kaepernick to get better, and I think it's reasonable for Palmer to decline.

What I'll also provide is what Football Outsiders has to say in their year-end wrap-up:

Better Than His Standard Stats Made Him Look: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
We could just as easily have listed Tom Brady or Matt Ryan here. All three of these quarterbacks had to play tough schedules, but Kaepernick is the only passer in the NFL who had to to play the league's top two defenses (Seattle and Arizona) twice each. And among starters, only Philip Rivers had a better DVOA than Kaepernick on third downs.

FWIW, Kaepernick finished 8th in passing DYAR (per-season value), 7th in passing DVOA (per play value), and 7th in Total QBR, according to the advanced metrics. He was also 7th in rushing DYAR.

I don't think he is, which is why I don't believe he's our "QBOF", but am okay with him as our QBOP as long we draft his successor to take over in a year or two.

We agree here.

You're moving the goalposts on the discussion by bringing in entire season stats. this discussion is about Carson's second half and the idea that he could do that moving forward, hopefully with a full year of the system under his belt and a better O-line. I'm dubious but wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

I can only present the data that I have. I don't have advanced stats for just the second half of the season. I kind of think that the "better O-line" is as speculative as Palmer's abilities not declining, so that could/should be a wash.

I'm with ya there. If he's able to stay where he was the second half of the season, you've got a solid QB to transition you until you find that legit QB of the future, but the team has to do that, IMO.

I think we're more or less in complete agreement here. So we're spending a lot of pixels splitting a very fine hair. My concern is that we'll be too good to actually acquire the kind of prospect that you're talking about, and investing in a 3rd round QB for two years while Palmer racks up 9-win seasons just forestalls the time until we're able to pick up a meaningful QB prospect.

But I'm going to be pretty happy with 9-win seasons for the next two years.

 

[Russ Smith]

2 points on Kaepernick, in his defense they played much of the year with injured WR's.

against him, is that they probably have the best OL in the NFL and because of the nature of that offense, he more than probably any other QB, benefits from the element of surprise in passing.

I still think he's good and going to get better. but the tradeoff is he runs so he'll get hurt.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

What are we calling elite? Six starting QB would essentially be the top quintile, much more than that would start to stretch things. I don't think very many people would have Kaepernick in their top six today. That's going to be a tough club to crack, even as the Bradys and Mannings of the league eventually retire.

 

[Darkside]

Palmer was average this year, but IMO can improve to elite next year. He can't play worse than he did this year. New personnel, new system, new coaches, new line, new schemes and new formations. I also don't believe it's accurate to say he can only decline at this stage of his career due to his age. Our team next year will be, by far in my opinion, the best team he's ever been on, on both sides of the ball.

He can improve his TO ratio compared to when he was in Cinci (let's face it, Chad Johnson wasn't an elite route runner--he couldn't even get on the field in NE when they desperately needed receivers), Oakland (where Fitz says Palmer had to throw to himself), and the 2013 Cardinals (with a hobbled Fitz, a lackluster Roberts, a 2nd-year player in Floyd, and hands of stone Housler, all while learning a new offense behind a bad offensive line).

He doesn't even need to improve his game or mechanics necessarily, all he has to do is minimize his mistakes on a vastly superior team than any he's been on. He knows he's on his last ride, taking his last climb up the hill, all he has to do is hold on.

 

[kerouac9]

Palmer was average this year, but IMO can improve to elite next year. He can't play worse than he did this year. New personnel, new system, new coaches, new line, new schemes and new formations. I also don't believe it's accurate to say he can only decline at this stage of his career due to his age. Our team next year will be, by far in my opinion, the best team he's ever been on, on both sides of the ball.

He can improve his TO ratio compared to when he was in Cinci (let's face it, Chad Johnson wasn't an elite route runner--he couldn't even get on the field in NE when they desperately needed receivers), Oakland (where Fitz says Palmer had to throw to himself), and the 2013 Cardinals (with a hobbled Fitz, a lackluster Roberts, a 2nd-year player in Floyd, and hands of stone Housler, all while learning a new offense behind a bad offensive line).

He doesn't even need to improve his game or mechanics necessarily, all he has to do is minimize his mistakes on a vastly superior team than any he's been on. He knows he's on his last ride, taking his last climb up the hill, all he has to do is hold on.

Mmm... there's a lot of "ifs" there that you're assuming are going to happen, including turning over most of the offensive line and having all of them be upgrades, as well as two of the top 4 receivers and the starting running back.

That being said, are those changes (plus another year of Father Time), really going to put Palmer in the class of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers? And that's without mentioning young guns like Stafford, Wilson, Ryan, or Andrew Luck.

Or the resurgent kids like Kaepernick and RG3.

Those are twelve quarterbacks that I think anyone being honest would trade Palmer for in a heartbeat.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Mmm... there's a lot of "ifs" there that you're assuming are going to happen, including turning over most of the offensive line and having all of them be upgrades, as well as two of the top 4 receivers and the starting running back.

That being said, are those changes (plus another year of Father Time), really going to put Palmer in the class of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers? And that's without mentioning young guns like Stafford, Wilson, Ryan, or Andrew Luck.

Or the resurgent kids like Kaepernick and RG3.

Those are twelve quarterbacks that I think anyone being honest would trade Palmer for in a heartbeat.

Who cares about all of those other QB's? Those of us grounded in reality understand that right now we have Palmer for our QB and that's how it is. You can either get behind him until we have someone better or continue to hate on him. Your choice.

Who is out there and available that could step in and instantly improve our chances to compete?

I am looking forward to seeing Palmer's second year here.

Go Cards !!! Go Palmer !!!

 

[PJ1]

Mmm... there's a lot of "ifs" there that you're assuming are going to happen, including turning over most of the offensive line and having all of them be upgrades, as well as two of the top 4 receivers and the starting running back.

That being said, are those changes (plus another year of Father Time), really going to put Palmer in the class of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers? And that's without mentioning young guns like Stafford, Wilson, Ryan, or Andrew Luck.

Or the resurgent kids like Kaepernick and RG3.

Those are twelve quarterbacks that I think anyone being honest would trade Palmer for in a heartbeat.

How many games did the resurgent RG3 win this year? He was horrible.

Bottom line we won 10 games with Palmer and yes we can improve the OL for next year and it doesn't require an entire overhaul.

 

[Cardiac]

Who cares about all of those other QB's? Those of us grounded in reality understand that right now we have Palmer for our QB and that's how it is. You can either get behind him until we have someone better or continue to hate on him. Your choice.

Who is out there and available that could step in and instantly improve our chances to compete?

I am looking forward to seeing Palmer's second year here.

Go Cards !!! Go Palmer !!!

I get the impression that K9 is behind Palmer but taking a realistic view on how much we can expect from him. I personally believe Palmer will improve over this years performance because of all the things Darkside posted.

I have zero doubt BASK upgrades our LT position and with Cooper coming back the Oline will be at least above average. With most of the key O players having a year in the system we will get off to a much faster start on O.

The biggest fear/concern I have with CP is the amount of picks he throws. Even in the 2nd half of the year he had 4 pick and 3 pick games. Do I think this defines him, no, but it is a major cause of concern.

Freaking love his attitude and toughness and resiliency and how he has apparently earned the respect of his teammates.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

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[kerouac9]

Who cares about all of those other QB's? Those of us grounded in reality understand that right now we have Palmer for our QB and that's how it is. You can either get behind him until we have someone better or continue to hate on him. Your choice.

Who is out there and available that could step in and instantly improve our chances to compete?

I am looking forward to seeing Palmer's second year here.

Go Cards !!! Go Palmer !!!

Very persuasive. Could've said the same thing about Derek Anderson, Kevin Kolb, or John Skelton. So, thanks for sharing.

 

[conraddobler]

The Seattle game was agony to watch.

I started to wonder if he had an interception clause in his contract that he was trying to meet.

 

[Cardiac]

The Seattle game was agony to watch.

I started to wonder if he had an interception clause in his contract that he was trying to meet.

 

[SECTION 11]

Carson Palmer is like watching Jake Plummer without the mobility. I'm tired if the turnovers.

 

[AZ Native]

It was hard for him so see the 5 Niner defenders on the INT.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Peyton Manning: 65%, 26 TDs, 4 INTs
Phil Rivers: 66%, 15 TDs, 4 INTs
Drew Brees: 71%, 18 TDs, 5 INTs

There you go. I could do more, but this was pretty easy.

I'll give you Manning.

Rivers only threw for over 300 yards once his last 8 games and only over 250 twice. Palmer was over 300 four times and over 250 five times.

Brees is pretty close but I'll take the 6-2 record of Palmer as the tiebreaker.

QBR, a stat you love to use, the last 8 games:
Palmer=66.1
Rivers= 64.8
Brees= 63.1

But please, do more.