Dan Orlovsky QB Rankings

[Proximo]

I mean, Kyler at his best is clearly top 10. Meaning the first half of last season he was clearly top 10, I don't even think that is arguable.

The question is if he can actually do it for whole seasons. I sure would rather have a qb that is at least capable of playing that way over a guy like Tua who clearly is not.

 

[Proximo]

Maybe it's just me, but no team will win "because of Burrow". I just haven't seen that yet. And definitely not Derek Carr.

As far as Kyler goes. I think it's best if he focuses on not cratering his production in the 2nd half of the season. But with Kliff.... I'm not so sure it's possible at this point.

I think Burrow already proved the team will win because of him last season - that team was not as talented as several of the teams they beat in the playoffs.

 

[Proximo]

The Raiders won because of Derek Carr just last season

Would you rather have Carr over Kyler?

I wouldn't. I get Carr has been more consistent, but Kyler is far more dangerous.

I really think coaching has held him back from showing his full potential, given time I think he may learn to overcome some of that himself.

 

[Chopper0080]

Would you rather have Carr over Kyler?

I wouldn't. I get Carr has been more consistent, but Kyler is far more dangerous.

I really think coaching has held him back from showing his full potential, given time I think he may learn to overcome some of that himself.

If I wanted to win games this year based upon the what I saw last year, I take Carr. He was a far better QB over the course of the year with a significantly worse supporting cast.

Now over the long term, it depends on how convinced I am that Kyler can develop into anything than he has shown to be at the NFL level. To be honest, I am beginning to question how much "better" Kyler is going to get but I still feel like there is a lot of potential.

 

[Chopper0080]

As I said. 2 winning seasons, and it was 6 years ago. This isn't about if he is a good QB or not. It's simply how can he be a QB that carries teams to wins when he has 2 winning seasons in 8?

Carr has the same number of winning seasons, playoff appearances, and pro bowls in his first three seasons as Murray does. Carr did that with 2 different HCs in those years. Same level of incompetent franchise, and so may argue worse.

Carr has also had to work to overcome a laughable roster around him. One sub .500 season over the past three.

 

[BritCard]

Carr has the same number of winning seasons, playoff appearances, and pro bowls in his first three seasons as Murray does. Carr did that with 2 different HCs in those years. Same level of incompetent franchise, and so may argue worse.

Carr has also had to work to overcome a laughable roster around him. One sub .500 season over the past three.

Saying he's similar to Murray when Murray is in tier 2 only supports my argument.

Carr is not a QB "You win because of" he's a "QB you win with". He has by far the worst win loss record of all the QB's in tier 1.

But either way, it's fine that you think differently to me. You don't have to try convince me, not me you. We can think differently.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Saying he's similar to Murray when Murray is in tier 2 only supports my argument.

Carr is not a QB "You win because of" he's a "QB you win with". He has by far the worst win loss record of all the QB's in tier 1.

But either way, it's fine that you think differently to me. You don't have to try convince me, not me you. We can think differently.

I definitely don't see Carr as a Tier one guy.

At best, him and Murray are at the same level.

 

[Chopper0080]

Saying he's similar to Murray when Murray is in tier 2 only supports my argument.

Carr is not a QB "You win because of" he's a "QB you win with". He has by far the worst win loss record of all the QB's in tier 1.

But either way, it's fine that you think differently to me. You don't have to try convince me, not me you. We can think differently.

Your comment is that Carr is 31 and you are taking his entire career into account. My point is that his early career mirrors Kyler's significantly. Carr has grown since then which has led to only one losing season over the past three for a dysfunctional franchise with laughable weapons. He put the cherry on his growth last year where he drug his team to the playoffs with a completely gutted offensive line, injury to his best offensive weapon, his head coach resigning amongst controversy and his most talented WR being charged with vehicular homicide.

They won because of Carr. End of story.

 

[Chopper0080]

I definitely don't see Carr as a Tier one guy.

At best, him and Murray are at the same level.

Carr's production on the field is better than Kyler's at this point. Not at the same level despite Kyler being more talented. In 2021, it wasn't really close.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Carr's production on the field is better than Kyler's at this point. Not at the same level despite Kyler being more talented. In 2021, it wasn't really close.

Different players. Murray doesn't really have a comp other than Lamar Jackson.

 

[Chopper0080]

If you want a solid long shot position, Derek Carr for MVP is +3500. He has the best weapons he has ever had, a more modern offensive coach, and is in a division that is going to force him to put up numbers.

 

[Chopper0080]

Different players. Murray doesn't really have a comp other than Lamar Jackson.

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Not in 2021. Kyler was slightly above average as a runner in 2021. 42 more yards rushing than Mahomes. In fact, you can argue that Kyler's ineffectiveness as a runner in 2021 is what highlighted his current limitations as a passer. Until he really grows as a passer, all Kyler's hesitancy to run is doing is making him less special and more average.

 

[Chopper0080]

Here is a fun one for QB rushing.

Player A:
48 rush attempts for 222 yards (4.6 yards per attempt)
5 rush TDs
20 first downs rushing

Player B:
88 rush attempts for 423 yards (4.8 yards per attempt)
5 rush TDs
25 first downs rushing

Player C:
133 rush attempts for 767 yards (5.8 yards per attempt)
2 rush TDs
48 first downs rushing

Player A is Sam Darnold and Player B Kyler Murray and Player C is Lamar Jackson. Darnold and Lamar both did that in two less games.

As a QB runner, here are the two stats that matter. 1st downs and TDs. Other than that, the yards are mostly meaningless. Kyler was completely average as a runner in 2021 and is not on the same planet as Lamar as a runner right now.

 

[kerouac9]

Kyler was one of the least efficient runners in the league last season by DVOA.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think Burrow already proved the team will win because of him last season - that team was not as talented as several of the teams they beat in the playoffs.

My first thought is that Burrow should have lost in Tennessee and KC if not for their defense.

 

[BritCard]

Your comment is that Carr is 31 and you are taking his entire career into account. My point is that his early career mirrors Kyler's significantly. Carr has grown since then which has led to only one losing season over the past three for a dysfunctional franchise with laughable weapons. He put the cherry on his growth last year where he drug his team to the playoffs with a completely gutted offensive line, injury to his best offensive weapon, his head coach resigning amongst controversy and his most talented WR being charged with vehicular homicide.

They won because of Carr. End of story.

I agree. They won because of Carr last year, or at least, Carr helped them win more than they should have.

At the same time, so did Kyler. Carr doing it one year in eight (or 2 if you want) doesn't scream tier one.

I'm not saying he isn't good, he is but he's nowhere close to Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes or frankly even Stafford who I'm also on the fence about being in tier one.

No way Stafford would have made Tier One in 2020 at the Lions, now on one of the most stacked teams in the league he's "Win because of"? Please.

 

[BritCard]

Carr's production on the field is better than Kyler's at this point. Not at the same level despite Kyler being more talented. In 2021, it wasn't really close.

Hmm, I'm not sure about this either.

Kyler missed some games so can't compare totals but on a per game or per pass basis Kyler had better comp percentage, better passing TD ratio, better INT ratio, better YPA, better points per game, better passer rating, better QBR, better YPC.

Kyler had a lower bad throw %, a higher accuracy %, and wins in all these metrics adjusted for drops and throwaways.

The only area Carr was statistically better in was yards per game by 12 yards. But then, that's pure passing. You factor in Kyler's legs and he wins that too.

 

[BritCard]

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Not in 2021. Kyler was slightly above average as a runner in 2021. 42 more yards rushing than Mahomes. In fact, you can argue that Kyler's ineffectiveness as a runner in 2021 is what highlighted his current limitations as a passer. Until he really grows as a passer, all Kyler's hesitancy to run is doing is making him less special and more average.

What's weird about Kyler's running last year is that he did most of it AFTER coming back from his leg injury.

5 of his 6 highest rushing totals came in the last 6 games.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I mean, Kyler at his best is clearly top 10. Meaning the first half of last season he was clearly top 10, I don't even think that is arguable.

The question is if he can actually do it for whole seasons. I sure would rather have a qb that is at least capable of playing that way over a guy like Tua who clearly is not.

At best? He is already top 10 now... Kyler clearly isn't at his best.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Here is a fun one for QB rushing.

Player A:
48 rush attempts for 222 yards (4.6 yards per attempt)
5 rush TDs
20 first downs rushing

Player B:
88 rush attempts for 423 yards (4.8 yards per attempt)
5 rush TDs
25 first downs rushing

Player C:
133 rush attempts for 767 yards (5.8 yards per attempt)
2 rush TDs
48 first downs rushing

Player A is Sam Darnold and Player B Kyler Murray and Player C is Lamar Jackson. Darnold and Lamar both did that in two less games.

As a QB runner, here are the two stats that matter. 1st downs and TDs. Other than that, the yards are mostly meaningless. Kyler was completely average as a runner in 2021 and is not on the same planet as Lamar as a runner right now.

Kyler was one of the least efficient runners in the league last season by DVOA.

Kyler made a conscious effort to not run as much last year. I think we can saw that...

 

[Chopper0080]

Kyler made a conscious effort to not run as much last year. I think we can saw that...

...and we saw that without his legs he is not a special player. Again, that doesn't mean he can't get there, but in 2021 he wasn't special in any way and was not a top 10 QB.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

...and we saw that without his legs he is not a special player. Again, that doesn't mean he can't get there, but in 2021 he wasn't special in any way and was not a top 10 QB.

He was special for the 1st half of the season. Sigh. He was top 10 this year, collapse or no.

 

[Chopper0080]

He was special for the 1st half of the season. Sigh. He was top 10 this year, collapse or no.

Kyler was 14th in passing yards
12th in passing TDs
15th in interception %
16th in passing 1st downs
9th in yards per completion
2nd in completion %
7th in QBR
Tied for 11th in wins
22nd in game winning drives
20th in 4th Q comebacks (scoring drive in the 4th Q when down by one score or less but not required to take the lead. He had 1.)
19th in intended air yards
13th in completed air yards.


Not a top 10 player in 2021.

 

[PDXChris]

I don't believe I can disagree with this post more.

The Bengals have been terrible for years and suddenly, after drafting Burrow and in his second year, they go to the Super Bowl. Coming off a 4 win season. 55 sacks allowed by his trash offensive line (3rd worst in the NFL). 4611 tards passing and 34 tds. You don't equate that to the QB?

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Ja'Marr Chase having one of the best rookie seasons ever didn't hurt either. It does show that a QB does need weapons, but your overall point is valid. Having an upgraded OL this season will help him be even better and the Bangles are going to be fun to watch!

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Kyler was 14th in passing yards
12th in passing TDs
15th in interception %
16th in passing 1st downs
9th in yards per completion
2nd in completion %
7th in QBR
Tied for 11th in wins
22nd in game winning drives
20th in 4th Q comebacks (scoring drive in the 4th Q when down by one score or less but not required to take the lead. He had 1.)
19th in intended air yards
13th in completed air yards.


Not a top 10 player in 2021.

I'll disagree and leave it at that.