Darn it, we gotta start Drafting Better

[SissyBoyFloyd]

Oh, and don't give me that example of the 4th or 6th rounder that turned out to be good. And going way back to Larry Fitzgerald's draft is ancient history. I am talking about recent 1st round picks. You know, the ones that keep our OL in disarray. And the one's we waste on positions we don't immediately need, and who turn out to be okay at best.

It seems every year a team with a depleted and inept OL get well instantly with a good draft. Every year some teams turn their whole OL around. Not us though. I am sick of these great picks "with so much upside". "UP SIDE", must be synonymous for can't play worth a darn.


And one more rant for today: The league (or some team) has to get it through their head what they are doing to these rookies. What am I talking about? It is the over-development and over-work out they are putting these kids through. From the moment their long hard senior (or junior) year in college is over, they immediately have to push their bodies to get in even better shape for the combine and constant workouts. Whether it be in the gym lifting weights or simply trying to burn off that last 5% of body fat they may have, they are pushing themselves beyond what their bodies can endure and hold up to. Then the draft comes and they go off to rookie training camp and preseason workouts trying like hell to push themselves more and make the team or starting lineup. And surprise! What happens? Too many of their body parts simply give out before they have gotten into the regular season.

I don't know about you, but this seems pretty obvious as to what is at work here. The question is, will the league or even a single team management ever realize and admit such a thing, and take steps to slow this whole unnatural process down. They are hurting themselves. It is simple to understand really. It is nothing more than a production plant which rushes their product to market, and then spends millions on recalls and reconstructions.

Come on, man! It took way too long to admit the concussion problems. Let's wise up and continue the awareness we have gained on that issue and extend it to players' whole body. Everything has its bend and breaking points. We have pushed modern day athletes way beyond theirs.

 

[crisper57]

I'd be more upset with this DJ, but honestly, drafting at our position, what else could they do?

All the good pass rushers were gone. There was a run on OL and RB before us. Not a place to select ILB.

If DJ was BPA at the time, it wasn't due to bad scouting so much as a lack of options at #24.

 

[NashDishesDimes]

Agreed, theee guys come to mind:

Cody brown
Mike floyd
Cooper
Ryan williams
Beanie wells
Levi brown
Troy nikklas
Rob housler

Jury still out on some of those guys but indications not good...

 

[TJ]

Starters from Keim's first two drafts:

Cooper
Minter
Badger
Watford
Okafor
Ellington
Buchannon
John Brown

UDFAs who are key contributors:
Jefferson
Jaron Brown

Amongst others

I'll say that since Keim has come on board, the collegiate scouting and drafting has improved considerably.

 

[DVontel]

I'd be more upset with this DJ, but honestly, drafting at our position, what else could they do?

All the good pass rushers were gone. There was a run on OL and RB before us. Not a place to select ILB.

If DJ was BPA at the time, it wasn't due to bad scouting so much as a lack of options at #24.

We could have easily selected Eric Kendricks(who I still think we should've got) or Shaq Thompson at that spot. Minnesota got a MAJOR steal in the 2nd with Eric.

Taking a RT(wasn't even a need) whose primary position in college was a LT will aggravate me for a while.

 

[kerouac9]

Let's just pump the brakes here

I'm actually comfortable with how we've been drafting. I think that Keim's philosophy is that 1st rounders are too valueable to take big swings on, so he's going to be happy to take B+ prospects with high floors and relatively low ceilings. It's not a great way to build your roster, but I can live with the theory for a few years.

I'm pretty tickled with Patrick Peterson and Michael Floyd. Peterson's already been extended, and I think we'll either trade Floyd for a 2nd rounder next offseason or he'll get a big FA deal.

But I'm not doing backflips about the actual results:

Starters from Keim's first two drafts:

Cooper - no where near a star for a Top 10 pick; just earned a starting job in his third season
Minter - has yet to earn a starting job from anyone; isn't a regular starter now; had his job taken by a safety playing out of position
Badger - Isn't a starter
Watford - Hasn't really earned a starting job ahead of anyone besides Sowell; hasn't been active much in his first two seasons in the league
Okafor - Became a starter due to injury; has a lot to prove this year to not be Sam Acho
Ellington - I'm bearish on whether he'll be the starter at the end of the season; one good season as a backup, one terrible season as a starter
Buchannon - Playing out of position; either a starter or not — he and Minter can't BOTH be starters
John Brown - had some special moments his rookie season, but his rate stats were awful

UDFAs who are key contributors:
Jefferson
Jaron Brown

Amongst others

I'll say that since Keim has come on board, the collegiate scouting and drafting has improved considerably.

 

[Buckybird]

We could have easily selected Eric Kendricks(who I still think we should've got) or Shaq Thompson at that spot. Minnesota got a MAJOR steal in the 2nd with Eric.

.

Exactly

 

[kerouac9]

We could have easily selected Eric Kendricks(who I still think we should've got) or Shaq Thompson at that spot. Minnesota got a MAJOR steal in the 2nd with Eric.

Taking a RT(wasn't even a need) whose primary position in college was a LT will aggravate me for a while.

Exactly

Or we could've taken Kiko Alonzo when we took Kevin Minter instead.

 

[splitsecond]

We have some definite misses in early rounds under Keim, but good lord if you go back and look at the Whiz / Graves era it's an absolute wonder that we have had the season we have the last couple years. There are almost no players left on the roster from those drafts, and most of them aren't even in the NFL anymore.

 

[Bert]

I dont understand.

In the same post you criticize the Cardinals for not drafting kids who are not only going to start immediately, but also make a huge impact so the team "gets well instantly."

Then later in the post you criticize the NFL draft system for putting pressure on kids to start right away.

I think you are set in an old Cardinal fan mindset where we used to pick in the top 5-6 every year. When you pick that high, yeah those kids should make an impact, but when you are picking late in rounds, you aren't always going to get those guys who make an instant splash.

Deone Buchanon is a solid starter, DJ Humphries might well turn out to be a solid starter.

I love their policy of taking BPA over need, even if I dont always agree with them on who the BPA is.

When you draft based on need, you get Rod Graves results: ie; Beanie Wells, Levi Brown, etc. Look at the injuries we had last year and the depth we showed. We won 11 games with a bunch of 2nd, 3rd even 4th string players in many key positions. I would say BASK is handling their business pretty well.

 

[kerouac9]

We have some definite misses in early rounds under Keim, but good lord if you go back and look at the Whiz / Graves era it's an absolute wonder that we have had the season we have the last couple years. There are almost no players left on the roster from those drafts, and most of them aren't even in the NFL anymore.

I dunno. Keim was involved in those Whis / Graves drafts, too. Don't heap too much gravel on them. On the other hand, even those drafts were a step up from what we had under Dave McGinnis. I think you're underselling how solid those drafts were because we chose to not hold on to some guys:

2007 Draft class - Alan Branch won a Super Bowl with New England and was on two playoff teams for Seattle; Breaston got a contract with Kansas City

2008 - DRC is still an NFL starter; Cambell is a Pro Bowler;

2009 - Rashard Johnson is a core player for the Cards; Greg Toler played for the Colts on a big contract;

2010 - Dan Williams got a big deal from Oakland; Daryl Washington got a big deal from us before going down the drain; Andre Roberts got a nice contract for Washington; O'Brien Schofield won a Super Bowl and was a priority FA signing for the Falcons; Jim Dray is a stud for the Cleveland Browns and scores 10 TDs a year in my mind

2011 - Patrick Peterson is a stud; Rob Housler is still in the league; Sam Acho made the Bears 53; Anthony Sherman is still playing for Kansas City;

2012 - Michael Floyd broke out two years ago and got submarined by a bad QB situation; Bobby Massie would've been a starter; Bethel has been to two Pro Bowls and may be a starting CB

The problem with Whis wasn't so much the drafting as the development, and the front office being unable to retain these guys. Letting Dray leave seems like a mistake now, as did cutting Schofield. Not because those guys are world-beaters, but they had to be replaced with uncertain draft picks or free agents who are more expensive.

 

[Buckybird]

Or we could've taken Kiko Alonzo when we took Kevin Minter instead.

Yessir.

Or maybe we just start trading away all of our 2nd's since we usually blow them anyway

The Taints got 2 of the 3 LBs & the Vikes the other that could've helped the Cards tremendously. Anthony, Kikaha & Kendrick's

 

[Jetstream Green]

I dont understand.

In the same post you criticize the Cardinals for not drafting kids who are not only going to start immediately, but also make a huge impact so the team "gets well instantly."

Then later in the post you criticize the NFL draft system for putting pressure on kids to start right away.

I think you are set in an old Cardinal fan mindset where we used to pick in the top 5-6 every year. When you pick that high, yeah those kids should make an impact, but when you are picking late in rounds, you aren't always going to get those guys who make an instant splash.

Deone Buchanon is a solid starter, DJ Humphries might well turn out to be a solid starter.

I love their policy of taking BPA over need, even if I dont always agree with them on who the BPA is.

When you draft based on need, you get Rod Graves results: ie; Beanie Wells, Levi Brown, etc. Look at the injuries we had last year and the depth we showed. We won 11 games with a bunch of 2nd, 3rd even 4th string players in many key positions. I would say BASK is handling their business pretty well.

This

 

[jf-08]

Jim Dray is a stud for the Cleveland Browns and scores 10 TDs a year in my mind

.

 

[perivolaki]

Originally Posted by TJ View Post
Starters from Keim's first two drafts:

Cooper - no where near a star for a Top 10 pick; just earned a starting job in his third season
Minter - has yet to earn a starting job from anyone; isn't a regular starter now; had his job taken by a safety playing out of position
Badger - Isn't a starter
Watford - Hasn't really earned a starting job ahead of anyone besides Sowell; hasn't been active much in his first two seasons in the league
Okafor - Became a starter due to injury; has a lot to prove this year to not be Sam Acho
Ellington - I'm bearish on whether he'll be the starter at the end of the season; one good season as a backup, one terrible season as a starter
Buchannon - Playing out of position; either a starter or not — he and Minter can't BOTH be starters
John Brown - had some special moments his rookie season, but his rate stats were awful
:

That's a rather harsh evaluation.

Some injuries figure in like for Cooper and TM.

We are rather lucky with some like TM and Buchannon who have the talent to play multiple positions and make it difficult for offenses to read what we are going to do.

Okafor and Brown have shown the potential to be stars in the league.

Everyone listed will probably at least contribute baring injury, and most of them will start, or be starters at some point during the season. We do need those players to step up and improve to have a successful season.

 

[Cardiac]

So SK sucks at drafting but keeps winning GM of the year awards.



Find me the team/FO/GM that hits on 60% of their picks or higher, can't be done.

 

[RINGLESS]

Just thought I would share some information. The Draft is by no means perfect.

50% (50%) .... Which means half.... Of all 2nd round picks are busts. Just look at the analytics.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_2.php

That means from round 3-7 have much higher bust rates than 2nd round picks. It is extremely hard to find starters or quality players as there are a lot of variables. Injuries often derail careers. Your talking about a violent collision sport for example. So yes before we start saying we need to draft better lets take a look at actual facts over a long period for all players drafted.

If you were wondering about 1st rounders.... Its only a 54% success rate

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_1.php

So in the first two rounds you have about a 50% chance of finding one starter. After that the odds drop dramatically.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Or we could've taken Kiko Alonzo when we took Kevin Minter instead.

+1

Still miffed about that one

 

[TJ]

I'm actually comfortable with how we've been drafting. I think that Keim's philosophy is that 1st rounders are too valueable to take big swings on, so he's going to be happy to take B+ prospects with high floors and relatively low ceilings. It's not a great way to build your roster, but I can live with the theory for a few years.



I'm pretty tickled with Patrick Peterson and Michael Floyd. Peterson's already been extended, and I think we'll either trade Floyd for a 2nd rounder next offseason or he'll get a big FA deal.



But I'm not doing backflips about the actual results:

Badger is the starting FS, FYI. Check the depth chart.

https://twitter.com/mikejurecki/status/641361969069461504

It's not really a big deal as all four safeties play more or less the same number of stats.

As for your analysis, it's way too pessimistic on just about everyone save for Minter, who kind of lucked into the starting role. Nevertheless, to have drafted and subsequently developed enough players in 2+ years, who are worthy of starting on a team who's won 21 games the past two seasons, is pretty remarkable.

 

[Chopper0080]

Let's call it what it is...

Cooper has done nothing to show he is a first round pick other than pick up the requisite paycheck.

Minter plays two downs at best, and has played like an UDFA doing so.

Deone Bucannon has yet to play any meaningful snaps at the position he was drafted at.

Troy Niklas can't even be healthy enought to display average TE play.

DJ Humphries has a nickname because he is so immature and can't beat out a player who was projected to be a possible roster cut.

Golden can't beat out Lamarr Woodley, but at least the staff is saying that he will get snaps.

I credit our success to coaching and Keim's ability to find quality vets to plug in and fill out a deep roster despite awful early round draft results. You can't really sell it any differently.

 

[CFLredzoned]

If you look at it this way, 12 of the 16 players Keim drafted in 2013 and 2014 made it to this year's final 53-man roster. That's 75%:

Jonathan Cooper, Kevin Minter, Tyrann Mathieu, Alex Okafor, Earl Watford, Stepfan Taylor, Ryan Swope, Andre Ellington, D.C. Jefferson, Deone Bucannon, Troy Niklas, Kareem Martin, John Brown, Logan Thomas, Ed Stinson, Walt Powell

And if you add the 2015 draft:

D.J. Humphries, Markus Golden, David Johnson, Rodney Gunter, Shaquille Riddick, J.J. Nelson, Gerald Christian

That's 18 of 23 on the current 53-man roster for Keim. 78% retention. That's alot higher than 50%.

 

[kerouac9]

Badger is the starting FS, FYI. Check the depth chart.

https://twitter.com/mikejurecki/status/641361969069461504

It's hilarious that you decided that the teams media relations department was the source you wanted to run with here. Good stuff.

The problem is that we don't really have a strong data set to compare it to. My reference is usually who gets a second contract. You're going to start high draft picks at some point, but it's more important that they're quality players. Right now, I think you can say that Mathieu and Bucannon are quality players for sure. Everyone else has a ton to prove.

If this team is good, it will say a lot about Keim's drafting, but Chopper is right to say that Minter, Okafor, etc. have been covered up by veteran free agent signings and Whisenhunts players until this year.

 

[Finito]

Cooper, Minter, Niklas are the only 3 that you can really hate on and hindsight is 20/20.

The Cooper draft was really weak at the top

In the top ten
Fischer
Joeckel
Dion Jordan
Lane Johnson
Ziggy Ansah
Mingo
Cooper
Tavon Austin
Dee Milliner
Warmack

None of those guys are really good. I would say Ansah and Austin are the two best of the group and neither of those guys are stars both are just solid at best. I wanted Warmack more than anyone in that draft and he hasn't lived up to the hype either. Hell even if you do the top 20 in the draft you only have 1 legit star in Richardson and he's in serious trouble with the law now.

Minter? Well nobody was talking about Alonso at the time who by the way missed all of last year with a torn up knee. But the guy who went ahead of Minter isn't exactly lighting up the NFL either. Manti Teo was the flavor of the month and he's really not that good either.

Niklas has just been hurt and that sucks. Sometimes guys bodies just fail them it's not for a lack of effort or heart it just is what it is.

I think we have done very well with our drafts. Do some of you actually remember the 90s? Cause I do and it was a dark dark time so I find it hard to actually criticize anything the front office is doing these days. The ship is headed in the right direction

You can play the whole oh we should of drafted so and so game with any team in the NFL it's just a waste of time

 

[AZfaninMN]

If you look at it this way, 12 of the 16 players Keim drafted in 2013 and 2014 made it to this year's final 53-man roster. That's 75%:

Jonathan Cooper, Kevin Minter, Tyrann Mathieu, Alex Okafor, Earl Watford, Stepfan Taylor, Ryan Swope, Andre Ellington, D.C. Jefferson, Deone Bucannon, Troy Niklas, Kareem Martin, John Brown, Logan Thomas, Ed Stinson, Walt Powell

And if you add the 2015 draft:

D.J. Humphries, Markus Golden, David Johnson, Rodney Gunter, Shaquille Riddick, J.J. Nelson, Gerald Christian

That's 18 of 23 on the current 53-man roster for Keim. 78% retention. That's alot higher than 50%.

And Christian is on the team but IR'd and Ryan swope never played a snap because of concussions but was worth taking a late round flyer on. I have had no problems w our picks cuz cooper broke his leg his rookie year n just getting back to form. DJ is just a kid and I think eventually this year it's going to sink in that he isnt bigger than everyone n needs to put in the work and no one is talking about Gunter who all I saw him do in college is pick up and throw people in school. It may have been D-3 but that's what u want to see from a small school guy. I'm excited for this team not only for this year but years to come with our youth

 

[TJ]

It's hilarious that you decided that the teams media relations department was the source you wanted to run with here. Good stuff.



.

Or you could just admit that you were wrong and not be an ass. It's not a big deal.